Forde likes Sparty by 1

Submitted by TorontoBlue on

"But now the Spartans finally play a road game, after four in East Lansing and hosting Florida Atlantic in Detroit. They still won't leave the state of Michigan until Game No. 8, at Northwestern, on Oct. 23. If they're still unbeaten by then, look out. League heavy Ohio State is nowhere on the schedule.

Key question: Can playmaking Michigan State linebacker Greg Jones and his teammates cut off the running lanes of superfreak Denard Robinson?"

Dash pick: Michigan State 35, Michigan 34.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=5650…

GO BLUE!

jtmc33

October 6th, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^

I hope you're right.... whenever I see a game like this with two ranked, undefeated teams and a spread over 3.5 I assume Vegas has one of those "secrets" that no one considers when betting.  Either that, or the underdog just isn't good and their time to get taken down has come (See Nebraska at 4-0 Kansas St. +12).  We all know MSU is undefeated because they are good... but why the relatively lofty line for UM?

For this game, I am assuming the line started at -4.5 because outside of the Midwest (where attention is spread somewhat evenly on the success of both teams) the national attention is Denard dominating,  Denard running, and Heisman front-runner Denard.  Betters in California and SEC country (Bet on Speeeeeeeeeeeeeed) don't even consider an undefeated road team in Denard's back-yard worthy of +3.  So, Vegas shifts the line a bit to attract the "educated" betters toward Sparty to compensate for the casual betters' assumption that the "hot" team/player must be better.

jb5O4

October 6th, 2010 at 9:19 AM ^

MSU is very good. I like to see the improvements we're making this year but it'll take a Heisman caliber performance by Denard to win each week.

BKFinest

October 6th, 2010 at 9:20 AM ^

And also said this:

"But keep this in mind about Robinson: At this time last year, we all were frothing about another Michigan quarterback who sliced up Notre Dame, Tate Forcier. He threw for 240 yards, ran for 70 and accounted for three touchdowns, and everyone said coach Rich Rodriguez had found his ideal spread quarterback. Except then the Wolverines finished 5-7 and Forcier is now a third-stringer. Robinson looks like the real deal, but let's hold off on constructing a statue outside the Big House for now."

Who cares what he thinks.

Parkersback

October 6th, 2010 at 9:57 AM ^

...but it's hard not to see how he's on to something pretty insightful here.  I'm not usually a big Forde fan, but you've got to give him his props, those parallels he draws between this year's start and last year's are spot on.  Up until now, I've been really high on DENARD ROBINSON as someone who could run coach RICH RODRIGUEZ'S spread offense, but we all need to check ourselves: if you'll remember back to 2009, last year's Michigan team also started strong, led by a dynamic new quarterback named TATE FORCIER.  As Forde points out, that didn't exactly end well.  I ended up quite disappointed.

 

I don't know about you, but I'm going to take his advice and "keep this in mind."

jtmc33

October 6th, 2010 at 10:14 AM ^

So if this year is exactly like last year and MSU/UM were tied in regulation at Sparty last year, and, given the 3 points for the home team and UM is at home this year.... we win by 6 in 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

UM 6   MSU 0    (per the 2010 is exactly as 2009 rule)

lilpenny1316

October 6th, 2010 at 10:41 AM ^

I hear what you're saying.  But Forde is talking about the offense, which is not the problem this year.  It honestly did not prevent us from going bowling last year.  Our D imploded starting with the Iowa game last year.  Iowa and Purdue should have been wins for us last year.  We also gave up a 98 or 99 yard drive to Illinois when they stoned us on the goal line in the second half.

And all the other differences between this year and last on offense have been well documented.  Tate was hurt.  We were still inexperienced on offense.  Blah blah blah.  You should be able to just look at the execution on offense and see the difference between this year and last year's offense.

Parkersback

October 6th, 2010 at 12:46 PM ^

Um, yeah, I was being a little bit sarcastic.  I was trying to poke fun at Forde who is approximately the 1,750,000th person in the world to pick up the "But Michigan started strong last year, too, and look what happened" idea.

 

I also all-capped the names in his honor, since he highlights the names in his pathetic columns.

 

But I guess the real joke is on me, since I just got neg-bombed for an attempt at amusing you all. 

Six Zero

October 6th, 2010 at 9:23 AM ^

When these guys do the 'by one point' pick, just to play it safe.  It's like a meteorologist announcing a 1% CHANCE OF SNOW.  If you're gonna make the call, put on your big boots and draw up it in stone, Nancy.

jtmc33

October 6th, 2010 at 10:00 AM ^

Every time someone posts a prediction (whether their own or from a pundit) someone chimes in that people are "panicking" or "overreacting" or "who cares what people think" etc., discussing predictions (which is what 99% like to do) is part of this board.  Predicting UM scores; Recruits; Rankings.  Complaining about people predicting anything about UM football is complaining about MGoBlog's reason for existence.

You anti-MGoBlogite.

bigmc6000

October 6th, 2010 at 9:39 AM ^

Fiu takes Sparty (no!) 45-37 but, I'll give him one thing, he did call them little brother so rather than the usual 0/10 I'll give him 1/10 ;)

 

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1009200.html

Also, as per everyone this week, he thinks MSU will bottle up Denard (at least to some extent) - I want Denard to go absolutely ape on MSU like he did IU just to show that dilithium reacts the same regardless of what its surrounded by :)

Fuzzy Dunlop

October 6th, 2010 at 9:48 AM ^

I have no problem with him favoring Sparty by one, but by saying the score is going to be 35-34 he assumes we're making two field goals, which is nuts.

On the other hand, he may be betting that we'll miss an extra point . . .

MWW6T7

October 6th, 2010 at 10:03 AM ^

I hope everyone picks Sparty this week. I would much rather be going into this game the underdog. I hope the team hears all the criticism and uses it this weekend. Respect is not given, it is earned. WE WILL earn ours this weekend!

detrocks

October 6th, 2010 at 10:27 AM ^

Pat Forde:  September 28, 2010

Michigan State at Michigan (26), Oct. 9.

Why it's big: One or both could still be undefeated, and rather unexpectedly so given preseason expectations. If that team is the Spartans, their Big Ten title aspirations rise with a victory over Michigan, since there is no Ohio State on the schedule. If that team is the Wolverines, Rich Rodriguez's job security rises with a victory over the in-state rivals, since he's 0-2 against Sparty while at Michigan.

Why it's interesting: The Dash wants to see Michigan State middle linebacker and playmaker Greg Jones against the skittering feet of Denard Robinson. The 235-pound Jones can put a hurt on the 190-pound Robinson -- if he can catch him.

Who will win: Michigan, 30-24.

NickUmich

October 6th, 2010 at 2:11 PM ^

...if we lose on a missed extra point. Cause we sure as shit ain't making 2 field goals. I don't think we'll make two more the rest of the year, let alone kick two more.

jmblue

October 6th, 2010 at 2:48 PM ^

Picking a team to win by one point is the cheap way out.  If MSU wins, he'll brag that he called it.  If we win, he'll say "I basically called it - I just thought they'd miss a PAT."

Pea-Tear Gryphon

October 6th, 2010 at 4:21 PM ^

The hot new game by Parker Bros. "Forde Likes _______ by _______ !"

I'll go first.

  • Forde Likes Songs by Nickelback
  • Forde Likes His Balls Liked by Goats (but who doesn't)
  • Forde Likes Asian Schoolgirls by The Truckload
  • Forde Likes Predicting by Overreacting to the most recent events

Makes the perfect Christmas, Kwanzaa or Hanukkah gift.