Ford: big board
LeVert will most certainly rise before it's all said and done...he's still a college sophmore in terms of age.
I also expect Walton and Irvin to play their way into the Big Board conversation - particularly Walton.
I love Walton's game, but I don't see him as having the size to be a first round pick. He's listed at 6'1", but I'd be very surprised if he measures out at that, even with shoes, and he seems to have really short arms for his height. The only player drafted at all in the last three years who's as small as Walton is Pierre Jackson, and he was taken in the 2nd round (and has significantly more vertical explosion).
Dre Trey", Dr. Dre
And Kemba Walker, and Peyton Siva, and Shabazz Napier, and Eric Bledsoe, and Johnny Flynn...just to name some diminuitive draft picks off the top of head from the past several years.
Every guy you mentioned measured out at 6'1" or better (given the...idiosyncratic...standards of combine measurement) with wingspans of 6'3.5" or better -- this is significantly bigger than what I'd expect Walton to measure at.
EDIT: I see that Silva and Napier actually only had 6'3" and 6'3.25" wingspans, respectively (which is still longer than I'd expect Walton to measure). Probably not coincidentally, these guys were both also 4-year players. The other guys are also either much more explosive than Walton (Flynn, Bledsoe, Walker) and/or have a much longer reach (Burke at 6'5.5", Bledsoe at 6'7.5").
I think if Walton has a big year, he would see himself in a similar position as Yogi Ferrell, who isn't even projected in the first round because of his average wingspan and lack of size, despite his ability.
You are picking a lot of big names and ignoring the guys who fail. Even a guy like Flynn if anything is a warning to the NBA - he was drafted in the lottery and basically out of the NBA within 24 months.
I dont know how one compares Napier to Walton, sorry - Shabazz is a superior player to Walton (by a large margin at this point) - and even he stayed all 4 years. And was dominant in the tourney as a leader. Trey was a NPOY - I think people forget that; he was VERY special and unique. Kemba Walker played 3 years and put on one of the most impressive 1 man shows in NCAA history. I mean these are very unique players. Siva a 4 year player. I guess Bledsoe is an example but by that account any PG freshman who has a modicum of success can point to that 1 player and say I can do it. Bledsoe was also a 5 star recruit of course.
Not many 6'1 guys are going to be in huge demand unless they are special, and Walton's size hurts him full stop. If he was a 6'4 PG I think these discussions about going early have more merit if he had a big year. And generally all these guys are special at 1 thing - Walton seems good at a lot of things but there is not 1 thing you see where he is elite. I hope Walton has a good 2 years ahead of him, grows into a leadership role, becomes great at 1 thing (whether shooting, breaking down a player in the lane, pick n roll, etc) and goes and becomes a 1st round draft pick in 23 months. But I think far too many people on this board project it because "Beilein".
By the way Flynn averaged 17.4 ppg , shot 46%, and averaged nearly 7 assists a game his sophomore year. Walton would have to move a lot of boxes to get anywhere near those #s.
A little late coming back to this, but I feel like I need to respond to the three of you. My point, in response to panthera, was that plenty of guys around Walton's size are drafted. A lot of the points you're making rely on an assumption that Walton has short arms. None of you cite his actual wingspan, and I don't look at the guy and think TRex. I don't see a freak winspan either, but my guess is it's around what Siva, Napier, or Walker have. Also, although Walton is not a freak athlete like Flynn or Bledsoe, he appears to be as athletic and/or built a bit more "staunchly" than Trey, Siva, Napier, Walker (despite the comment above, Kemba is not an elite athlete). Let's not forget that Trey's greatest asset was ultimately his basketball SKILL/IQ, which he worked extremely hard to develop on his own and with the UofM coaches. Same goes for Napier and Walker, frankly (although Napier may be the quickest of the bunch in tight spaces). Comparing Walton to a senior Napier or junior Walker is unfair, just like comapring him to a soph NPOY in Trey is unfair.
Lastly, my point was not that Walton is destined to be drafted in the first round and have success in the NBA. Flynn was drafted in the top ten and got a bunch of guaranteed money despite flaming out pretty quickly. NBA success was not the measure, being drafted was.
Ultimately, due to Walton's lack of ELITE size and ELITE athleticism, he will need to develop those basketball SKILLS that turned other similarly positioned 6' or 6'1" PGs into first round draft picks. I think this echoes one of the comments above - he needs become really good or great at something instead of being good at everything. The tools are there...
One other comment on the Trey compairsons. Trey became "VERY special and unique", but he was not his freshman year. In a lot of ways, as a frosh, he was comparable to Walton last year. The main difference being Trey's on court presence and usage - which may not have anything to do with either player and more to do with the team's makeup when each player was a freshman.
Pretty sure Trey Burke is listed at 6'1""
Dawson and Kaminsky are among his 6 "on the cusp." Frankly (pardon the pun), I can't believe Kaminsky isn't higher. That dude is really good and his ability to shoot from outside and put it on the floor will be coveted in the NBA.
He has Dawson at 32 and Kaminsky at 36.
I am surprised Kaminsky is that low as well. The NBA seems to love 7 footers that can move a little, especially if they can shoot.
was european, they'd be all over him. why no love for the american white man?
It sounds like a joke, but I'm not entirely sure you aren't on to something. People stereotype unintentionally all the time. They're used to European bigs that can shoot getting drafted and playing in the league. If Kaminsky was coming from Serbia or Lithuania then I have to believe you'd be right.
After watching Kaminsky during Wisconsin's tourney run, I don't see how he can't be the preseason front runner for BIG POY (as much as my homer side would prefer it to be Caris). If he carries that momentum from the tourney into this upcoming season, he may not be a lottery pick, but he'll be a first rounder.
I'm expecting a breakout year from Walton as well.
Levert has work to do on his shot. I think he goes a little before #27.
He has Irvin at 41 but projects him as a late first round pick, that seems odd...
They won't, but Irvin will? I don't see it coming, honestly. I hope he has that kind of breakthrough, but he doesn't strike me as a two-and-done guy.
shiftiest/craftiest player on the team. Creates well, but definitely made some questionable decisions in clutch situations. He definitely can have a star role on this team and be taken in the first round.
32 Dawson (MSU)
36 Kaminsky (Wisc)
41 Irvin (Mich)
44 Hammons (Pur)
56 Petteway (Neb)
72 Williams (Ind)
73 Wells (Mary)
86 Ferrell (Ind)
91 Hollins (Minn)
They haven't lacked for recruiting.
I actually wondered the same thing when I saw this particular reply - OSU has put together some decent classes in the recent past, I believe, so you think they would be here. All the same, the schools that you would expect to be represented are here, and I will say I wondered if anyone from Maryland would crack the list as they don't do too badly themselves in basketball generally.
Reading this title I thought we were talking about Ford Motor Company
Caris will likely be a 1st rounder once this ceiling heavy draft board shakes out. I feel like Michigan took a serious flyer on Caris and just have a feeling that unless he is a sire shot lottery guy....he will take a flyer on Michigan and return for a Senior year. He most certainly owes us nothing...but i just feel that he has 4 years of Michigan in his heart. I think this may be the first year we don't lose anyone to the NBA Draft in a while. The 2015/2016 team will be a Title Contender as a result. This year's bunch is going to be a lot of fun if you approach this season with the right attitude. I hope Caris balls out and has a tough decision to make in March!!
Will be lucky to get drafted at all. Where will he fit, has no ability to create for himself, no jumpshot beyond 10 feet and way too short to play the 5. Dawson>Kaminsky is laughable.
He won't be drafted. If he had four more inches the pacers would love him.
Kaminsky lacks stremgth, length, athleticism and is a poor rebounder hence his fringe 1st grade
Walton reminds me of Ty Lawson. I give him 3years.
LeVert is a lottery pick. 6'6'' 7'1'' wingspan as a combo and if he improves his PnR vision, teams will give looks as a PG in the mold of Brent Barry, Jamal Crawford, Larry Hughes, Antonio Daniels, Lance Stephenson, Shaun Livingston, MCW, Exum, etc...
Hi strength, pull-up jumper and off-ball scoring needs to impove, as well, and it is likely with plays actually being called for him now and not just residual action.
Irvin has a LONG WAY to go.
I understand the knocks on Kaminsky. I just think there are other guys playing now that fit that description and have still managed productive NBA careers. He's no future all star, but he offers some quality scoring at his position.
As for Walton/Lawson: I like the size comparison, but Lawson has freakish end-to-end speed and can get up a lot higher than Walton. Lawson was also a lot more productive his freshman year.
Like I said above, I love Walton's game, but one of the reason's that I'm so stoked about his play last year is that I really don't see him leaving before his eligibility is up.
I don't think the Yogi comparison is good either as Yogi is a jumpshooter while Walton is already a better finisher at the rim.
My main point is just that I don't see Walton solidifying himself as a 1st round pick in the next two years (as Lawson was able to do, and as I doubt Ferrell will be able to do either). I'd be happy to be wrong about that, and I'll be happy to have him running point in either case.
I agree with much of what you are thinking. Kaminsky is an EXCELLENT NCAA player - but he will get exposed when playing NBA guys. Look at his game vs Kentucky. Held to 8 pts, held to 7 shots because he was playing guys who play above the rim. Which is what he will face nightly in the NBA. I see him as a late first guy who will give you a long career of 7 pts a nite, 5 rbs etc.
I see Caris somewhere in the 11-16 area, similar to Nik's projection going into the draft. He needs to improve on the "dribbling in 1 spot for 8 seconds of the shot clock" thing but he brings a lot of intangibles of being in the right spot at the right time you cannot teach. Strength he can get over time as he gets older and in the NBA.
Irvin needs to develop every part of his game not called outside shooting - impossible to assess him now; we'll know in late January how he is developing. And as I wrote earlier Walton at 6'4 would be a different discussion than Walton "listed" at 6'1 (which means probably 6'0. Likewise he needs to become great at 1 thing.
leVert looked elite vs UK and they have a few lotteries in ewings already. I gotta think itll be meteoric rise to top ten of the board. Actually was mildly surprised he was at 27.
And I'm Thinking . . . THIS (Shows how old I am.) . . . Ladies and Gentlemen, Your Ford Motor Company Board of Directors (Standing second from left in top photo is William Clay Ford. Lee Iococca is standing to his right in the photo.)
Is there a physical board and how big is it really?
If there is not a physical board, what is the point in calling it "big" when it has no material size?