Football study hall has run a projection of the 2014 season based on three factors:
(a) Ca. 60%: A five-year weighted S&P+ average, with 2013 getting 5x the weight, 2012 4x, ..., and 2009 1x
(b) Ca. 30%: The 2013 S&P+ ratings, adjusted for the number of returning starters.
(c) Ca. 10%: the past two years of recruiting
The top 25 are as follows:
Rk | Team | (a) | Rk | (b) | Rk | (c) | Rk | 2014 Projected S&P+ |
1 | Alabama | 295.5 | 1 | 275.3 | 5 | 290.3 | 1 | 288.9 |
2 | Florida State | 268.7 | 2 | 298.1 | 1 | 282.2 | 5 | 279.0 |
3 | Oregon | 257.4 | 3 | 281.1 | 2 | 257.4 | 20 | 264.6 |
4 | South Carolina | 242.3 | 13 | 266.8 | 6 | 268.4 | 16 | 252.3 |
5 | LSU | 250.2 | 5 | 244.7 | 18 | 285.9 | 3 | 251.9 |
6 | Stanford | 249.3 | 6 | 261.4 | 8 | 237.0 | 39 | 251.8 |
7 | Texas A&M | 245.4 | 9 | 255.7 | 13 | 280.0 | 7 | 251.8 |
8 | Georgia | 243.2 | 11 | 258.0 | 10 | 277.9 | 9 | 251.0 |
9 | Oklahoma | 245.0 | 10 | 256.3 | 12 | 269.8 | 15 | 250.8 |
10 | Ohio State | 242.6 | 12 | 251.4 | 14 | 288.1 | 2 | 249.6 |
11 | USC | 234.4 | 17 | 265.2 | 7 | 274.9 | 10 | 247.7 |
12 | Auburn | 222.9 | 30 | 277.7 | 3 | 279.3 | 8 | 245.0 |
13 | Michigan State | 241.9 | 14 | 246.6 | 15 | 248.7 | 26 | 244.0 |
14 | Clemson | 235.4 | 16 | 245.1 | 16 | 272.0 | 13 | 241.8 |
15 | UCLA | 215.9 | 43 | 276.0 | 4 | 270.6 | 14 | 239.4 |
16 | Oklahoma State | 246.7 | 7 | 222.4 | 37 | 247.2 | 28 | 239.4 |
17 | Notre Dame | 238.7 | 15 | 219.4 | 41 | 281.5 | 6 | 236.9 |
18 | Boise State | 251.2 | 4 | 219.9 | 39 | 198.4 | 65 | 236.7 |
19 | Wisconsin | 246.6 | 8 | 216.0 | 45 | 226.8 | 47 | 235.4 |
20 | Louisville | 224.6 | 27 | 257.6 | 11 | 216.6 | 51 | 233.9 |
21 | Florida | 233.0 | 18 | 218.1 | 42 | 283.0 | 4 | 233.2 |
22 | Virginia Tech | 231.7 | 21 | 226.7 | 29 | 257.4 | 20 | 232.6 |
23 | Michigan | 227.2 | 25 | 232.3 | 22 | 265.5 | 17 | 232.4 |
24 | Central Florida | 223.3 | 29 | 261.2 | 9 | 185.2 | 73 | 231.2 |
25 | Baylor | 232.9 | 19 | 223.1 | 34 | 246.5 | 29 | 231.2 |
That seems generally about right to me, although not all of the rankings seem right: Boise State's ranking is inflated, for instance.