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Football Study Hall projects 2014 football season rankings

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February 8th, 2014 at 12:02 AM
#1
dnak438
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Joined: 08/12/2009
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Football Study Hall projects 2014 football season rankings

Football study hall has run a projection of the 2014 season based on three factors:

(a) Ca. 60%: A five-year weighted S&P+ average, with 2013 getting 5x the weight, 2012 4x, ..., and 2009 1x

(b) Ca. 30%: The 2013 S&P+ ratings, adjusted for the number of returning starters.

(c) Ca. 10%: the past two years of recruiting

The top 25 are as follows:

Rk Team (a) Rk (b) Rk (c) Rk 2014 Projected S&P+
1 Alabama 295.5 1 275.3 5 290.3 1 288.9
2 Florida State 268.7 2 298.1 1 282.2 5 279.0
3 Oregon 257.4 3 281.1 2 257.4 20 264.6
4 South Carolina 242.3 13 266.8 6 268.4 16 252.3
5 LSU 250.2 5 244.7 18 285.9 3 251.9
6 Stanford 249.3 6 261.4 8 237.0 39 251.8
7 Texas A&M 245.4 9 255.7 13 280.0 7 251.8
8 Georgia 243.2 11 258.0 10 277.9 9 251.0
9 Oklahoma 245.0 10 256.3 12 269.8 15 250.8
10 Ohio State 242.6 12 251.4 14 288.1 2 249.6
11 USC 234.4 17 265.2 7 274.9 10 247.7
12 Auburn 222.9 30 277.7 3 279.3 8 245.0
13 Michigan State 241.9 14 246.6 15 248.7 26 244.0
14 Clemson 235.4 16 245.1 16 272.0 13 241.8
15 UCLA 215.9 43 276.0 4 270.6 14 239.4
16 Oklahoma State 246.7 7 222.4 37 247.2 28 239.4
17 Notre Dame 238.7 15 219.4 41 281.5 6 236.9
18 Boise State 251.2 4 219.9 39 198.4 65 236.7
19 Wisconsin 246.6 8 216.0 45 226.8 47 235.4
20 Louisville 224.6 27 257.6 11 216.6 51 233.9
21 Florida 233.0 18 218.1 42 283.0 4 233.2
22 Virginia Tech 231.7 21 226.7 29 257.4 20 232.6
23 Michigan 227.2 25 232.3 22 265.5 17 232.4
24 Central Florida 223.3 29 261.2 9 185.2 73 231.2
25 Baylor 232.9 19 223.1 34 246.5 29 231.2

That seems generally about right to me, although not all of the rankings seem right: Boise State's ranking is inflated, for instance.

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February 8th, 2014 at 12:17 AM
#2
samdrussBLUE
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Joined: 01/21/2012
MGoPoints: 15350
Standard & Poors?

Standard & Poors?

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February 8th, 2014 at 1:59 AM
(Reply to #2) #3
deemarsah
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Joined: 11/18/2013
MGoPoints: 217
S&P

Strength and positioning? Steak and potatoes? Sit down and pee?

It's none of those, but it is explained here:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

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February 8th, 2014 at 10:37 AM
(Reply to #7) #4
MGoGrendel
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Joined: 01/21/2013
MGoPoints: 30206
Salt and

...

...

(wait for it)

...

PEPPERS!

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February 8th, 2014 at 12:18 AM
#5
Unicycle Firefly
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Joined: 10/01/2013
MGoPoints: 5802
A&M is about to nosedive

A&M is about to nosedive without Manziel, not sure how they end up that high. I also have a hard time buying Georgia as top 10. They're like Michigan in the mid-90's, always losing 3-4 games they shouldn't.

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February 8th, 2014 at 12:22 AM
(Reply to #3) #6
Wolverine Devotee
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Joined: 06/29/2009
MGoPoints: 126194
What was UGA's Will Carr vs

What was UGA's Will Carr vs Purdue 1996 moment?

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February 8th, 2014 at 12:30 AM
(Reply to #4) #7
Unicycle Firefly
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Joined: 10/01/2013
MGoPoints: 5802
Well, their '94 Colorado

Well, their '94 Colorado moment was obviously this year against Auburn. Let me do some research once I sober up in the morning, there has to be a UGA Will Carr moment out there.

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February 8th, 2014 at 12:45 AM
#8
StoneRoses
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Joined: 05/30/2012
MGoPoints: 510
Honestly I'm surprised we are

Honestly I'm surprised we are ranked that high to begin. You'd think the pollsters would not have much faith in us after last years debacle.

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February 8th, 2014 at 2:21 AM
(Reply to #6) #9
uminks
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Joined: 11/10/2009
MGoPoints: 10561
After last year

You can only improve!

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February 8th, 2014 at 2:26 AM
(Reply to #9) #10
Ty Butterfield
Joined: 09/07/2009
MGoPoints: -84422
One thing I have learned in

One thing I have learned in life: things can always get worse.

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February 8th, 2014 at 2:20 AM
#11
uminks
uminks's picture
Joined: 11/10/2009
MGoPoints: 10561
It's

Possible if we win on the road against ND, we could be undefeated when we play sparty. It will be interesting if Ness can get more development out of our young OL. I see the D improving, so the OL is the question mark.

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February 8th, 2014 at 3:18 AM
#12
NFG
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Joined: 04/24/2012
MGoPoints: 30599
I don't think we deserve to

I don't think we deserve to be ranked until we show a cast improvement. Otherwise, it'll just be embarrassing after we lose another 4+ games.

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February 8th, 2014 at 8:46 AM
#13
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 81212
Seems About Right...

I would agree with the OP - in a mjaority of cases, teams seem to be in approximately the right position. Indeed, the top ten here seems to read like the top ten of both the Coaches' and AP polls in various weeks throughout the past several years, so particularly in that portion of this projection, there seems to be some consistency. As for Michigan, I think that's probably right based on the data mentioned, and I could see us being somewhere around there in at least one of the preseason polls. 

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February 8th, 2014 at 1:10 PM
#14
991GT3
Joined: 12/14/2013
MGoPoints: 1132
The Michigan brand is so strong in football

we could have cancelled the season and still be ranked. A couple of seasons like the last two should kill the brand.

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February 8th, 2014 at 1:43 PM
(Reply to #14) #15
nMegoblue
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Joined: 02/05/2014
MGoPoints: 81
Sure, if that's what you care about

General Motor's brands in the '80s and '90s were so strong that the corporation continued to sell the most vehicles of anyone right up until bankrupcy despite putting out product with poor quality the whole time.

As consumers of this 'Brand', we should care more about quality than we do about recognition.

The football program has not  lived up to expectations since 2003. 

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