Football Regular Season: Over or Under 9.5 Wins
I saw this discussed in another thread earlier this week, and I saw that the MLive guys talked more about this today. Now, I will not post the link because A) they both took the under and B) I know how much you guys don't really like MLive. Back on topic, though. I feel like the topic needed a little more attention than it got. Plus, the blog has been rather quiet today, so I thought I would spark a little evening conversation.
So the big question is, do you guys think that Michigan will reach the double digit mark for wins this football regular season? Personally, just looking at the schedule, I don't think there should be a doubt that this team should get to 10 wins. As I think about it a little more, though, we have a brand new offensive line, and once again I think we are one injury away on the offensive line from having depth issues... So I thought I would enlist the blog to help with one of the most important and most speculative questions of the season.
No doubt this line is much more talented... With Kalis and Bars looking to get immediate time, I'm certainly excited... My only concern is like you put it, that the line will definitely need time to gel. Luckily our schedule other than ND doesn't really heat up until mid to late October and November, also helping the Jake Ryan cause... This schedule gives the line time to settle in as a group. Maybe I'm just a sucker for believing whatever the media has to say at times.
First, I think you meant Braden not Bars. Second, I think the inexperience of the line is way overblown. Literally every team has some level of turnover on the line. Nobody gets all 5 guys coming back, yet every year plenty of teams do just fine. Everyone is freaked out because for the past several years the inexperienced guys coming in also were not that good. That's not the case anymore. We have monsters coming in. So they will need a little bit to find their footing, but I think our interior will be better than last years interior by ND at the LATEST. I am not worried about the line at all. Remember that team that won the national championship here round about 16 years ago (how was that so long ago...)? They started a freshman at LEFT TACKLE in Jeff Backus. They also had a freshman guard in Steve Hutchinson I believe. Couple that with a much more mobile quarterback and Devin will be fine. What about the running game you ask? We have a guy who rushed for a thousand yards two years ago and then had shitty line play in front of him last year, and the number one running back in the country who came in at a svelt 235. We'll be fine. At the very least we'll be fine.
In case you didn't glean as much from this rant, I will take the over. With Denard, teams stopped our offense by taking away the run and making us one dimensional with a dimension that was shaky. We'll be much more balanced this year. ND's secondary is their weakness but was the only thing we couldn't attack effectively the past two years. Ohio's defense is just shaky all around. I'm more worried about PSU and Northwestern than either of those teams, but it's an optimistic 50/50 whether PSU really feels the hit from the sanctions this year. I say 11 wins.
Oh did I not mention Sparty?...
edit: rants look a lot shorter when they're still in the text box
If I'm being honest, under. We're still a year away from having the talent to really compete on a national level, and losses will likely include ND, OSU, and one random team.
You're talking about two different things here. Competing in the Big Ten and competing at a national level are two different things, and to win ten games you only have to satisfy the first one. Anyway, we certainly have to talent to compete on a national level, because competing on a national level is not the same as winning a national championship. We proved that we could compete when we came within seconds of beating South Carolina. There are three levels of talent: the talent to win the Big Ten, the talent to win a BCS bowl, and the talent to play with Bama. The third is the only level we're probably not close to at this point.
is Michigan forgodsakes! Brady Hoke and Michigan haven't lost a home game in 2 years! ND lost thier QB so that helps us alot. Then we should be able to beat Penn state on the road. Will be tuff but we have more talent than Penn state! Thats 7 wins! Sparty has no offense,and this game means alot to Brady Hoke. We lost 2 straight in el. Nebraska is payback from last years debacle! Our Defense played their ASS of and russell couldn't hit the water standing in a boat! Devin is a way better QB than him! Thats 9 wins right there. The Northwestern game will be tough but it's not really a road game for us! We should be able to win at Iowa unless the refs cheat us again! Thats atleast 10 wins then THE GAME,C'MOM fellas MICHIGAN is back and we will beat ohio at home! They are young on Defense and Devin will be rolling at this point and Jake Ryan will be ready for sure! That looks like 11 wins to me! GO BLUE!!!
Perfect world- Michigan wins the B1G, doesn't go to the Rose Bowl bc they go to the NC game which, coincidentally, is the Rose Bowl
Eh I'm not sure we have ridiculous talent on the D line and O line just yet, or least not very experienced talent.
You are definitely right it is inexperienced, but I think a bunch of the guys on the offensive line are extremely talented. It will just be a matter of time for the line to gel as a group. As for the defensive line, I feel really good about it. Washington, Black, and Clark showed flashes of greatness last season and should help with the pass rush that was non-existent last season. Not to mention Taco and Ondre on the line as well.
Yeah I have to say I'm a little disappointed about the lack of any hype about Pipkins. Maybe I'm just out of the loop, but have there been any positive reports on the guy?
I know I just thought we'd hear more about him in the offseason.
Do you hear anything about anyone? Pipkins had arguably the best play in the 1 on 1 drills, which I can no longer find on youtube, but let's be serious here. Did you expect to hear anything, especially since spring ball has been done for some time?
I've heard a fair bit of stuff about Gardner, the receivers, Frank Clark, and James Ross.
Just to be clear, I'm not necessarily saying that it's the fault of Pipkins here. He may be perfomring really well and just not getting a lot of attention. I just thought I would here more about him.
Ondre did play some last lear. Lets hope he's done everthing this offseason. He was a big-time recuirt and he needs to show up this season!
I think he'll be really good, but he plays the same position as Q-Wash. Granted the defensive/offensive scheme will dictate which personal will be on the field, but in general he won't be a "starter" since he's behind Q-Wash. So, although I think he will absolutely contribute, his big impact year will be in 2014 when he's the projected starter.
For what it's worth, on the radio the other day Sam Webb said he thinks Q Wash will be an all BigTen selection this year based on what he's seeing/hearing. I think he might have said 1st team in fact.
I'm not sure rediculous is the word I would use to describe our talent level. Don't get me wrong I think we have arguable the best team in the conference. And I would call Gardner, Green (if he plays), Kalis, Lewan, Ross, Countess, D. Thomas (if he plays) and maybe Wilson, Funchess, and Pipkins as pretty talented based on their recuirting profiles. But on offense, Miller, Schofield, Braden, Gallon, Darboh, and Fitz, and on defense Morgan, Cam Gordon, Thomas Gordon, Ramon Taylor, Q-Wash (as a defender), Clark, whoever plays SDE are all not exactly top 150 type guys. So, it's hard to say we are incredibly talent, at least if you go by recruiting profiles.
This article and thread is ineffectual at best. If we don't win 10 games or more this year, the squeaky wheels will begin to chirp. Forget about who we lost in graduation, etc. We bring back with experience and impact freshman nearly 50 men in the two deep. Ummm, hello! We better be a damn fine football team this year. Gardner will light it up, but then have a horrible game that we end up losing, and also have those moments of "$&@$#*%#" that most fans instantly begin to call for the freshman recruit to come in and lead the team.
And please stop predicting Shane Morris is the "next" becoming. He has got a lot of work to do and will be a project. People need to get a grip. I would take a McCarron clone everyday of the week and twice on Sunday over some flashy gunslinger that fups games because he wants to be the "great-one". Not saying Shane thinks or plays that way, but I bet it happens and people let off the gas a bit sooner rather than later on his "greatness".
Gallon may be the best WR in the Big Ten. Schofield is projected to be an NFL draft pick, as is QWash. T Gordon is a very solid safety etc. Dont pick on those guys because they did not make some arbitrary HS recruiting list 3 years ago...those are very good players. Gallon may be great.
Morris won't be taking the helm next year.
Hopefully Gardner has a great year...maybe Morris redshirts...and Gardner pulls a Lewan and stays for a 5th year. Morris would have 2 full years of learning the offense before taking the helm.
The interior offensive line is a question mark. Wilson at safety is a question mark. Countess and Fitz' health are question marks. Also, Ryan is out for at least the time being and if he comes back and how effective he will be is a question mark, so the SAM position is a question mark. Also, we have no backup QB plan. What happnes if Gardner gets hurt? So, although I certainly beleive we have the potential to win 10 or 11 games if we stay healthy and the offensive line produces, and either Fitz or Green can run the ball, it's just hard to predict right now.
exactly rich in talent. Considering Michigan's schedule, with ND being the only big time out of conference game, I am pretty confident in how Michigan's talent level stacks up to the teams on the schedule. If we are looking at strictly the Big Ten, there aren't many positions where Michigan isn't first or second in terms of level of talent. In short, given the weakness of the Big Ten at the moment (assuming Gardner stays healthy), I am pretty confident that this team will reach double digit wins. Does this team have question marks? Absolutely, but so does almost every other team in the country. From a pure talent standpoint, this is the most UM has had since Carr's teams.
Easy. Over.
Where's our running game? Provisionally under until I see how we perform against ND.
Are we including BTCG and/or bowl games in this? I see us going roughly 9-3 this season, and a bowl game is always a crapshoot. I gotta take the under, given the fact that if we're 9-3, that will most likely not include a Big Ten championship (2 in-conference losses), which means we'll be playing LSU or some nonsense like that on New Years.
Yeah, take the over.
- ND @ AA
- PSU @Sad Valley
- MSU @E. Lansing
- OSU @AA
Semi-toss-up:
- UN @ AA
- NW @ Evanston
I see a 10 win season and a B1G Championship game.
I see Northwestern as much more of a toss-up than MSU. Sparty sans Leveon Bell is much less imposing.