Football Recruiting seems to be following a familiar pattern

Submitted by 93Grad on

It looks like the football recruiting pattern established under Hoke is continuing:  A bunch of commits prior to the season, followed by almost no commits during the season, and then a bunch of stars deciding late and sleepers flipping after the season is over. 

 

The hope is that the team plays well enough on the field to reel in some of the late deciding stars as opposed to just picking up the late blommers and sleepers in January and February which is mostly what happend under Hoke. 

 

My guess is that this class looks a lot like the Hoke classes in terms of star ratings.  The key quesiton then will be whether Harbaugh and staff will be better talent evaluators.  (I'm taking it for granted that they will be better talent developers).

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Tater

September 18th, 2015 at 5:40 PM ^

In basketball recruiting, you either buy an all-star team of one and dones or build a team in the traditional manner.  Most of the "big boys" are going to teams that offer what the NCAA calls 'improper" or "extra" benefits.  

John Beilein and other clean coaches are competing with one hand tied behind their backs. It's just the way it goes.  Dirty programs will compete for Final Fours every year.  Clean programs will call it a "great year" if they are a top ten program.  

That is one of many reasons I am in favor of letting players take money from anyone who wants to pay them, as long as it doesn't involve "point shaving."

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Jinxed

September 19th, 2015 at 5:50 AM ^

Lance Thomas purchased 100k worth of jewelry his senior year at Duke. He made a 30k down payment for it. If that's not fishy, I don't know what is. 

Only reason NCAA didn't get involved is no one would talk. 

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jmblue

September 18th, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^

The season is two weeks old and we haven't had a big recruiting weekend yet, so it really shouldn't be a surprise that recruting has been quiet.

Regarding the last paragraph, how do we distinguish player development from talent evaluation?  

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EGD

September 18th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^

I agree this will be difficult, but here are a couple ideas I have.

For one, there have been some players Harbaugh was after at Stanford who had good careers elsewhere.  Taysom Hill is the one that springs immediately to mind; I know he also offered Tate Forcier, whose problem wasn't talent so much as off-field issues.  If someone were to systematically evaluate Harbaugh offerrees and figure out whether they were more likely to do well irrespective of where they played, that could be a good indicator.

Hoke had a lot of players who did next-to-nothing at M, and then went on to be productive players at other schools or even make NFL rosters.  To me, that suggests those players had talent, but that Hoke's staff couldn't do anything with it.  Let's see what happens with guys who transfer out of M after failing to contribute in 2-3 seasons.

A third idea might be to look at Harbaugh's "hit rate" among fliers and low-rated recruits.  If Harbaugh consistently gets production out of guys rated, say, >600 in their class, then you have to figure a lot of that is evaluation because there would be so many candidates for that scholarship and the staff needs to pick the right one.

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turd ferguson

September 18th, 2015 at 4:43 PM ^

Good post all around, but since you mention Taysom Hill, here's an article that's kind of interesting.  It's a BYU writer arguing that if Hill plays football again it could be via a fifth-year transfer, and Michigan might be a logical landing spot (since Hill cares about academics, there's no incumbent QB at Michigan, Harbaugh recruited Hill to Stanford and stayed in touch with him, etc.).

It seems unlikely but might be something we're talking about in a few months.

 

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EGD

September 18th, 2015 at 5:36 PM ^

That seems pretty unlikely. Fifth-year transfers usually look for places where they are virtually guaranteed to start. Hill would be coming off a Linsfranc and competing with Okorn, Morris, Gentry, Malzone, ee Peters, plus Speight and Viramontes. And that's all assuming he's got a compelling reason to leave BYU. I'd never say never with Harbaugh, but I'll believe this one when I see it.

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turd ferguson

September 18th, 2015 at 3:42 PM ^

That's probably true for most schools.  Coaches have time during the offseason to recruit, and HS kids aren't busy with school and their own seasons.  I just checked OSU, MSU, ND, and Alabama's recruiting classes, and none of them got any commitments in the last month.

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The Mad Hatter

September 18th, 2015 at 3:44 PM ^

and a period of mediocrity and outright awfulness stretching back to 2008.  A lot of these blue chip guys are going to need to see some results on the field before they jump on the Harbaugh train.

Win 9+ games this year, including at least one rival, and watch us land some great talent on NSD.  Beat both rivals and win ten games? That'll buy us a top 5 class.

Also, we're already at #8, so it's not like the sky is falling.

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DairyQueen

September 18th, 2015 at 3:56 PM ^

 

 

When your most recent variable (read: Harbaugh) is an extreme outlier, as far as variables go, then it's unwise to try to read a pattern being present.

 

With more average coaching changes, there might some patterning, as far as recruiting goes.

 

But it won't be the case, either at a football destination like UofM (see: Hoke's Classes vs. Rodriguez's Classes), let alone with a coach like Jim.

 

We could go sub-500 and still pull a Top 5 class....no hyperbole.

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Farnn

September 18th, 2015 at 3:48 PM ^

Recruiting is quiet all over this time of year.  It's too early for most of the major visiting weekends schools have for games like OSU/MSU, LSU/Alabama, and USC/UCLA.  In addition, these kids are in the midst of their highschool seasons and too busy for recruiting.  Most of the players who are going to commit early did so in the spring/summer.  The other big schools like OSU, USC, and Alabama haven't gotten many recruits either.

It will pick up later in the season as HS seasons end and recruits can focus on recruiting again and it will pick up even more at end of November when regular season ends, coaches can look at HS tape and have more time to go on recruiting trips/make 100 calls a day. 

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Quailman

September 18th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^

This "Pattern" is pretty common.

You get a bunch of commits before the season, because its summer time and players can visit and are at camps. Then it slows down during the season, because those players have their own season, and school to worry about. So recruits don't have as much time to take their visits until football is done. Then when the season is finished, they have more time, and a deadline, to figure things out. Thats the way it works. 

Like others mentioned, we are two weeks into the season. Recruits want to see how things go, and we havent had a big recruiting weekend. MSU had a huge recruit weekend last weekend against Oregon and didnt get a commit out of yet. I bet they are feeling fine. 

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Dawkins

September 18th, 2015 at 3:50 PM ^

There's less recruiting happening right now for everyone since coaches are, uh, actually coaching football at the moment. 

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Marley Nowell

September 18th, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^

Recruits who haven't committed at this point will wait it out to see how the season goes for their potential teams before deciding. Most want to focus on their games and schoolwork before sitting down to make this difficult decision.

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Nosce_Te_Ipsum

September 18th, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^

The Hoke model, like the Mack Brown model, fostered complacency with the recruits. Why? When a spot is secured as with the recruit's future what would make them challenge themselves more so than what they've already undertaken? Rested on their laurels would be more apt. How is this time different with Harbaugh? There is no data to suggest otherwise so until there is I'm leary of this method of recruiting.

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Nosce_Te_Ipsum

September 19th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^

This is the problem discussing with the uninformed narcissist. You always think you're right without explaining yourself. These commits were pressured hard. The tactics have been well known by any that follow recruiting in the least. If the model to get commits early, majority of commits, is undertaken by all or most then following suit isn't a bad idea but it hasn't worked out well in the past for a Michigan coach and another high profile coach in Brown. Disagreement is fine but with no backing egg is on your face to those who think.

Joined: 09/18/2015

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Nosce_Te_Ipsum

September 19th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^

This is the problem discussing with the uninformed narcissist. You always think you're right without explaining yourself. These commits were pressured hard. The tactics have been well known by any that follow recruiting in the least. If the model to get commits early, majority of commits, is undertaken by all or most then following suit isn't a bad idea but it hasn't worked out well in the past for a Michigan coach and another high profile coach in Brown. Disagreement is fine but with no backing egg is on your face to those who think.

Joined: 09/18/2015

MGoPoints: 37