Football Outsiders takes on CFB luck - Michigan 3rd unluckiest team
Further to the Mathlete's post, here's another way to look at luck this CFB season, per Football Outsiders:
luckiest teams: http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8720225/lsu-tige…
unluckiest teams: http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8720311/michigan…
both links are $. so a quick summary - luckiest team was OHIO, followed by LSU and Stanford. ND came in at 5. Unluckiest was our beloved spartans, followed by okla st. and michigan.
December 11th, 2012 at 6:31 PM ^
We don't need advanced metrics to know that Ohio was the luckiest team in the country.
December 11th, 2012 at 7:42 PM ^
I disagree, Ohio State going undefeted on a probation season is pretty bad luck to me. ND is IMO the luckiest team. ND played MSU early when their O was the worst of the season, Robinson turns the ball over what 6 times, Oklahoma bends over, and they dont have to play USC with their all time leader in tds and yards.
December 11th, 2012 at 8:09 PM ^
Don't forget about how Pitt botched what would have been a game winning a field goal against ND.
December 11th, 2012 at 8:19 PM ^
December 12th, 2012 at 11:31 AM ^
10+ years. The contender with this ND team isn't 2012 OSU, it's 2002 OSU.
December 11th, 2012 at 9:15 PM ^
dont forget that on said miss there were two players with the same number which should have been a penalty and let them retry from 5 yards closer
December 12th, 2012 at 1:21 AM ^
I also disagree, but I do not think this particular undefeated season would have otherwise landed them a spot in the national championship game.
December 11th, 2012 at 6:32 PM ^
and undisciplinced. They probably would have won some of those close games if they didn't have 100 yards in penalties
December 11th, 2012 at 6:34 PM ^
December 11th, 2012 at 6:53 PM ^
#fireborges
December 11th, 2012 at 7:01 PM ^
December 11th, 2012 at 7:08 PM ^
Didn't know luck was a measureable statistic these days.
December 11th, 2012 at 7:19 PM ^
Sounds appropriate to how I felt after 3 of those 4 losses...
December 11th, 2012 at 7:45 PM ^
and 1 out of 4 of those losses?????tell me how you felt
December 11th, 2012 at 8:40 PM ^
I was pretty drunk and I went outside and fell asleep before the game ended.
December 11th, 2012 at 7:22 PM ^
December 11th, 2012 at 8:13 PM ^
December 11th, 2012 at 9:20 PM ^
since good luck and bad luck are direct inverses of each other, lacking good luck is the same as having bad luck, no?
December 11th, 2012 at 9:43 PM ^
December 12th, 2012 at 4:11 PM ^
= Nick Sheridan telling me I'm a nerd...
December 11th, 2012 at 11:20 PM ^
Eh, whatever. Last year we might have been the luckiest team, so it evens out.
The way I look at it is this: last year, we were probably the worst 10-2 team going into bowl season. This year, we're probably the best 8-4 team going into bowl season.
December 12th, 2012 at 12:40 AM ^
We definitely regressed to the mean this year. Last year we recovered over 70% of our fumbles. This year we only recovered somewhere around 25%.
December 12th, 2012 at 7:59 AM ^
This year, we're probably the best 8-4 team going into bowl season.
James Franklin (Vandy coach who hilariously voted his team above UM in the Coaches' poll) disagrees.
December 12th, 2012 at 12:31 AM ^
I would have figured Nebraska would have been pretty high on the lucky list. At least until they played Wisky in the B1G championship game. Maybe that game was just karma for what had happened all season long for the Huskers.
December 12th, 2012 at 6:23 AM ^
It is interesting, first and foremost, that on Mathlete's metric, we end up being slightly lucky with 8 wins compared to an expect 7.6 wins, but it did seem as if, after the Nebraska loss, when our fate was tied to theirs essentially, everything that we needed them to NOT do really they did. In their games with MSU and Penn State, it seemed like we might get bailed out on the conference record potentially (as it was pertinent to the BTCG), and in the second half of each game, both teams seemed to collapse and badly (throw some bad calls in there too). For us, it was two particular weeks of awful luck there.
December 12th, 2012 at 7:14 AM ^
December 12th, 2012 at 11:44 AM ^
I would rather win and be called "lucky" than lose and be called "unlucky." YMMV.