Football Outsiders predicts Michigan 8-4
The title pretty much says it all. I don't know how reliable these guys are, or how knowledgeable, but I'd probably take 8-4 over the risk of not reaching that record. I'd like to think we can do better, just not sure how much better.
Not much analysis listed in the article, but posting this more for the record itself.
Need ESPN insider:
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insider/news/story?id=4428331
August 31st, 2009 at 10:00 AM ^
pay-walls are tasty
August 31st, 2009 at 10:02 AM ^
I'd probably take 8-4 over the risk of not reaching that record.Seeing as a majority of the usual sources don't have Michigan finishing this high, this quote totally confounds me. Are you saying you expect Michigan to finish higher? If it were me, I'd rephrase it as "I wish we finished that high."
August 31st, 2009 at 10:18 AM ^
I read his quote to mean that he would take a guaranteed 8-4 record, without the possibility of finishing any better. As opposed to not knowing how we're going to finish, with say, 10-2 as much of a possiblity as 4-8. If that makes any sense.
August 31st, 2009 at 10:32 AM ^
After re-reading it, I think I came to the same conclusion. It just sounded funny the first time and I misinterpreted it.
August 31st, 2009 at 11:36 AM ^
The "insider" says 8-4 is going to be our record. Bologna. He is assuming we are going to be 8-4 and lose to teams that are "supposed" to be bettern than us. If I were guessing he probably has us losing to OSU, PSU, Iowa and either MSU or Illinois. Our track record against PSU speaks for itself. Let's recall a certain 17-14 half time score in Happy Valley last year and a tie ball game going into the 4th against our little brother. 7-5 was possible last year considering our close games. 8-4 isn't that big of a leap from that and I think our boys know how to win this year. Our defense is going to be on a killing spree due to all the haters. Not to mention we will be even more of a threat on offense with a more developed playbook.
I hope Ohio State is ready for an ass whooping.
August 31st, 2009 at 9:53 PM ^
Let's take a step back and consider that our actual record (not our potential best-case scenario record) last year was 3-9. They are predicting a massive improvement (8-4). This is a favorable prediction for us.
August 31st, 2009 at 5:42 PM ^
...all the extra practice we've gotten in that gives him the confidence to say 8-4.
August 31st, 2009 at 6:01 PM ^
8-4 would be fine and you guys are nuts if you think 10-2 is more likely than 4-8.
August 31st, 2009 at 7:51 PM ^
I offered a very outspoken Spartan a simple bet today at Happy Hour. OFFER "I will bet you UM's record is better than MSU's record." ( Pre season roughly the same, they do not play OSU in conference) I offered to bet him $1000. DESPITE ALL THE TALK, he did not take bet. He made a phone call to a friend. That Friend, a self-proclaimed expert, advised him to take bet, provided that it is regular season only. The "expert" advised that MSU would probably get to a better bowl and lose, but that UM would go to lesser bowl and win. DIscuss. (Note This wager is not an open ended offer, but should clearly indicate Sparty's real perception)
August 31st, 2009 at 7:54 PM ^
Football Outsiders are, essentially, the football version of Baseball Prostectus - any prediction they make is based on rigorous statistical analysis. They may be wrong, but it's not just an opinion snatched from mid-air, like most talking heads.