Football Outsiders (Per ESPN) predict 7 losses for UM ($)

Submitted by massblue on

I think Football Outsiders are on drugs.  Among their many strange predictions are the following margins of victory/losses

 

CMU + 19, ND - 10, Akron + 33, UConn -5, MINN + 13, PSU -11, IND + 9, MSU -16, NEB -7, NW - 11, IOWA -8, OSU -13.

 

It also claims that we will have the #31 Defense.

 

Of course, ESPN turns around and ranks us #14.

 

Link

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9528915/michigan-wolverines-college-football-power-rankings-espn-magazine

 

Edit:

Football Outsiders has had a good record in predicting NFL games.  But their methodology may not translate well to the college level.  Can anyone explain their Efficiency Rating?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/

 

Added Iowa

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smwilliams

August 7th, 2013 at 3:11 PM ^

But, this doesn't even say 5-7, it says 4-8 (2-6 in the Big 10). Basically, they are predicting us to beat cupcakes and the dregs of the Big 10 while losing every other game. This is why math is helpful to better understand sports, but it's not wise to make it the be all and end all.

Joined: 08/20/2010

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ReggieNoble04

August 7th, 2013 at 5:18 PM ^

These guys are high. Everyone is predicting us to win the legends division ,well all the btn ppl seem to believe so and they actually go to practices.. Ill take their reviews , Howard and jerry said us and Ohio were the two most talented teams and were separating themselves from the pack ill take 10-2 season with b10 championship win and rose bowl beerh

Joined: 01/06/2011

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NRK

August 7th, 2013 at 10:48 PM ^

Not sure on the article posted, I was having issues getting my insider to work on my iPad, but I'm a consistent FO reader from the NFL-side. Their metrics are pretty good for that. On the college side, their 2013 Almanac has UM projected at 7-5 (4-4), and they note that "if blue-chippers click... [Michigan could] vastly exceed their projection". So... I'm not really sure without reading that article what the numbers actually mean, but it's apparently not the same as FO has projected and published on their website. Edit: got insider to work. Very weird. The metrics BF uses there are not the same as most others FO use, so don't kill FO for it. The FO Almanac is much more upbeat about Michigan, though notes they are young in some key areas.

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