Football Outsiders: Bill Connelly article
In this write-up on FO today, we discover that Michigan is projected 18th in their S&P+ data. Take a look for yourself. There's some other interesting bits in there as well:
http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2011/varsity-numbers-what-…
September 2nd, 2011 at 11:12 PM ^
Don't bet on Auburn at #4 or TCU at #5.
September 2nd, 2011 at 11:15 PM ^
September 2nd, 2011 at 11:20 PM ^
Fremeau had to say about Auburn:
I think Bill and I pretty much agree with all of this. However, the Tigers' Program F/+ rating is No. 13, 5YR recruiting is No. 11, and Program FEI is No. 7 (could be better, but Auburn stacks up well in these components of the formula).
The projection model does recognize that Auburn will take a step back. The projection model, however, has nothing to compare to Auburn. Never before has a team been so good in one season and then lost so many critical parts. We could have arbitrarily assigned some additional weight to Auburn's personnel losses, but there wasn't a way to do so without it being exactly that: arbitrary.
Our models are designed to maximize accuracy of projections for as many teams as possible. We know the model will miss on some teams. It certainly looks like Auburn is an easy candidate for a misfit for the model. I'm holding out hope that we'll get the over on 6 wins right, but I think they'll have a hard time winning 8 or 9.
It should also be noted that though F/+ projects Auburn at No.4 overall, it picks the Tigers to finish 4th in the SEC West in terms of mean conference wins:
1. Alabama (6.9)
2. LSU (5.7)
3. Arkansas (5.3)
4. Auburn (5.1)
September 3rd, 2011 at 8:32 AM ^
It's a model, so obviously some teams will be wrong. I just happened to open the article with TCU down three touchdowns to a fringe bowl team.
The Football Outsiders stuff is really interesting, but like any other ranking system (especially early in the year), it needs to be checked against reality--which is exactly what Fremeau did here.