It is "common wisdom" that the first 4-5 minutes of the second half is a critical indicator of how the game will go...but does anyone have any real data on that topic?
spoiler alert: i linked this
My research shows that between 240 and 300 seconds run off the clock. You are welcome.
This is a Zen koan, right? Like "if a tree falls in the forest but nobody hears it, did the tree really fall?"
I'm pretty sure the question would be if the tree made a noise, not if it actually fell.
You could...do the research yourself, then report back to us with your results.
treating some portions as less meaningful is a bad plan.
That said, of course, the stakes and/or pressure related to that last few minutes in a tight game may feel different - Which makes JoMo's free throws that much more impressive yesterday.
I think it is more something announcers like to say for whatever effect and/or excitement they think it brings to the broadcast. It would be welcome of more of them could come up with original, interesting thoughts. I'm not holding my breath.
I think it does make a difference, just not all the time. That sounds very contradictory.
Anyway, if you are the underdog, and you come out in the first 4-5 minutes of each half with a quick run, you basically have the favored team reeling and you can press your advantage the rest of the half. If you are a major underdog, coming out with a run really messes with the mind of the favored team, unless they are an experienced team. If you are the favored team, you can crush the spirit of the other relatively quickly, and never let them back in it.
The second half first 4-5 minutes is also very important, as it is when the adjustments at half time are applied. If they work, you stick with them, if not, then you go back to the original gameplan (which probably wasn't working well since you made adjustments) or you devise a new game plan in which you don't really have the necessary time to tell your players how to adjust.
We seem to be doing well in that segment of games lately. Actually, the first half of each half seems to go well for us. The second 10 minutes of each half is a little iffier.