Filling Out the Class - Monday Edition

Submitted by alum96 on

It's been 24 hours since the weekend edition, and going down the final crazy stretch might be close to time to putting one up daily.  (Shouldn't need 1 tomorrow though as Wednesday seems to be next stretch of activity)

Since yesterday's guestimate - 3 new commits.  Add those commits to guys most feel lean strongly blue (5 trusted agents) and you are at the 30 limit.

  • Michael Dwumfour
    Elysee Mbem-Bosse
    Joshua Uche

Then we remove the 3 decommits and that opens the final 3 spots that we need to stuff a lot of people in.   I consider Nate Johnson out of the class with the avalanche of Notre Dame ballz, while Sam labeled Elliott "50/50.... at best" this morning.  Which doesn't make him a commit anymore to me - just someone we are going after and at best have a coin flip chance.

So that leaves this chart.  I've added "potential trusted agents" at the bottom - of those Brian has deemed both Murphy and Nordin as a "surprise to shock" if not in final class.  So that would leave 1 spot for everyone else.  Hudson will let us know Wednesday if he is to be trusted.

Still foggy on Dytarious Johnson's inclusion in the class.

  No  
  Rashad Weaver Temple
  Nate Johnson Notre Dame
  Jordan Elliott Texas / UM
     
  Yes  
23 Eddie McDoom Soon
24 Donald Stewart Soon
25 Chase Allen Warm
26 Khaleke Hudson Warm (PSU/UM)
27 Rashan Gary Shhhh
28    
29    
30    
     
  Trusted Agents?  
1 Lavert Hill MSU / UM
2 Connor Murphy Left Coast v UM
3 Quinn Nordin PSU / USC / UM
4 Jordan Fuller OSU / ND / UM
5 Devin Asiasi Left Coast v UM
6 Boss Tagaloa Left Coast v UM
7 Victor Viramontes Cal / Utah / UM
8 Isaiah Simmons Clem / Neb / UM
9 Nick Eubanks? ?
10 π Young Would go UM
11 Jonathan Jones ND

 

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LSA Superstar

January 25th, 2016 at 6:32 PM ^

Seems like D. Johnson is out. I think you must take one of Hill or Fuller (or both). To a lesser extent, I think you must take Elliot or Tagaloa, not both. If you have a shot at Tagaloa, that likely means Asiasi too. I think Murphy is the first take if you can't get Tagaloa, Hill, Fuller and Asiasi (which would be hard). This means there are a limited set of possibilities, but I'm not doing the logic game.

Joined: 10/03/2009

MGoPoints: 3323

LSA Superstar

January 26th, 2016 at 10:18 AM ^

...or maybe I AM doing the logic game.

We have 24 commits.  Based on the "dark web," one is unlikely to qualify.  Two others, Elliott and N. Johnson, are admittedly shaky. That puts us at 21 firmly committed spots, leaving nine potentially vacant spots absent any surprise flip losses.  Based on those spots, I think the board looks like so:

  1. RESERVED FOR GARY
  2. CB
  3. Non-Gary DT
  4. TE
  5. SLOT
  6. BPA
  7. BPA
  8. BPA
  9. BPA

Then you pool the players we remain in for.  As you can see from the pool above, it's worth designating five of these guys as "takes no matter what" - the four BPA slots plus Gary.  I think, based on announcement timing and a variety of other factors, that those guys are sorted as follows:

TAKES NO MATTER WHAT:

  1. Gary
  2. Hudson
  3. Asiasi
  4. Hill
  5. Fuller

Then you have the other dudes we're in on, in no particular order:

  1. Tagaloa
  2. Elliott
  3. Asiasi
  4. Tagaloa
  5. Murphy
  6. McDoom
  7. N. Johnson
  8. Stewart
  9. Allen
  10. Nordin
  11. Young

And the players with whom our position is mysterious:

  1. Eubanks
  2. Simmons
  3. Viramontes
  4. J. Jones
  5. Price, I guess

Next, you look at the order of committments.  It's my theory that some commits have been told to announce sooner because they're takes, whereas others have been told to announce on signing day because earlier takes go first (Gary is an obvious exception).  Once players hear this, they're either doing what they want ("no thanks, I'll announce when I want, coach") or playing along.

If I'm right (it happens occasionally), the following "rules" emerge:

1.) Hudson is announcing tomorrow.  I think that means that Hudson one of the coaches' two BPAs.  Hudson takes a spot.

2.) McDoom is rumored to be announcing tomorrow.  If McDoom commits as expected, he takes the slot spot and Johnson gets in only as a BPA.  Young's only chance becomes as a CB or BPA.

3.) Fuller announces next Monday.  Fuller would fill a CB spot.  If he commits elsewhere, we put the full court on Hill, who's probably a "must take" anyway.  If Hill commits elsewhere, Young gets the spot as a CB.  I think this is Young's best shot at being in the class.

4.) If Asiasi commits, I think we probably don't take Allen or Eubanks's commitments.

5.) I think we'll take both non-Gary DTs if we have room, although neither seems very likely.

6.) I think Murphy, Young, Nordin, and Stewart are takes only if there's room available.  I think we lead for all and if there is room I think they'll commit.

Joined: 10/03/2009

MGoPoints: 3323

RobM_24

January 25th, 2016 at 6:49 PM ^

I wonder if Raulerson going elsewhere opens up a spot? Can't they go over 30 if they know they won't cross the roster limit after spring attrition? They had to have been holding a spot for Raulerson.

Joined: 01/27/2014

MGoPoints: 62091

Snake Oil Steve

January 25th, 2016 at 6:50 PM ^

Hasn't there been discussion on this board re: 1 potential grayshirt from the satelitte camps in this class? I know Brian mentioned this in the piece for the Recruiting Board under Useful Stuff. Not sure if you factored that into the equation, but since it potentially opens up 1 very necessary spot that could get filled by an elite talent, thought to mention. Finishing with a healthy dose of D-Line and CBs would be nice for 2017. 

Joined: 10/28/2015

MGoPoints: 649

San Diego Mick

January 25th, 2016 at 7:14 PM ^

this is going to be an epic recruiting class, so excited to start reloading and not worrying about rebuilding.

Another thing, I don't care about RS'ing guys, if they can play then let them play which seems to be Harbaugh's MO. If a guy plays as a true frosh and leaves after his JR year well then that will just open up more room for new recruits who will be highly rated ones anyway.

Look at OSU for example, all the guys declaring for the NFL opened up all kinds of room, they don't seem to be concerned.

Joined: 05/11/2011

MGoPoints: 50483

getsome

January 26th, 2016 at 1:23 PM ^

totally agree.  this staff typically redshirts certain positions like OL and QB or certain situations like undersized players requiring addl weight before realistically contributing but most others will be thrown into competition and expected to contribute asap.  if they can find a role and contribute and earned the reps, they belong.

then just need confidence (which seems like this staff has) in ability to reload and coach up another crop of talented newcomers and sculpt that 85 / 115 into another competitive terror.  cycling players through the program quicker allows coaches to sign more kids (ie maybe another 30 prospects over 4-5 year period) thereby increasing odds of hitting the true home runs.  and early reps for capable frosh help those guys acclimate and develop at quicker pace (more often than not).   most of the top programs apply this practice (and unfortunately osu is and has been one of those top programs)

Joined: 09/07/2013

MGoPoints: 7379

Uneducated Undergrad

January 25th, 2016 at 7:24 PM ^

I think Dytarious Johnson is out and either Devin Gil or Josh Metelleus is getting a grayshirt, so there should be 5 spots open not three, at least at this juncture. But then again I see Quinn Nordin as a lock... it can either way with a lot of these guys. As far as who is going to fill those spots, that is really anyones guess because I could see both Lavert Hill and Jordan Fuller being takes. I would expect Allen to block Asiasi, which means Tagaloa is even less likely. But after that I'm drawing blanks!

Joined: 01/07/2016

MGoPoints: 9

MGoJeezy

January 25th, 2016 at 7:32 PM ^

Wtf is Harbaugh gonna do if Elliot/weaver don't leave? That would leave 6 spots Max to get to 35 and i don't think we'd have the scholarships.... Pandemonium!!! Trust the khakis!!



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Joined: 11/10/2015

MGoPoints: 1220

Blue since day 1

January 25th, 2016 at 8:01 PM ^

probably rewrite the ncaa rules to make it so we can take all of them because harbaugh can do harbaugh things.

Joined: 01/18/2016

MGoPoints: -134

DMack

January 25th, 2016 at 8:13 PM ^

Correct me if I' missing something but if we already have 25 and seven are already enrolled that would bring us down to 18 at this point. It makes sense to greyshirt Nordin because we probably wont need him and he likely wont play at all nexy season. 

This leaves room for at least 10 more:

Gary, Asiasi, Tagaloa, Hill, Stewart, McDoom, Hudson, Murphy, Jones, and Young =28.

If we lose Elliott, (which I pray we dont) and Johnson that still gives us 26 and then you could add Allen or who ever else you want but I think the guys listed are the ones I really want to see commit and we keep both Elliott and Johnson.

Any thoughts? 

Joined: 06/22/2015

MGoPoints: 2727

Mr. Yost

January 25th, 2016 at 8:17 PM ^

Is Nordin no longer considered a greyshirt option?

Seems like everyone is counting him in the class as a scholarship player from day one...

If he's still a possibility to greyshirt then I think it's easy...

  1. Elliott or Tagaloa
  2. Murphy or Asiasi
  3. Hill or Fuller

...miss out on both of any of the "or" lines and add Pie Young.

However, if Nordin is a scholarship player (which if he was, what is stopping him from announcing)...forget everything I just said. But why hasn't he announced? And does this mean Andrew David transfers?

SO MANY QUESTIONS!!!!

Joined: 07/25/2011

MGoPoints: -9898220

DMack

January 25th, 2016 at 8:42 PM ^

I thought Murphy was a D line prospect and Asiasi was a Tight-End? I think you take all of them as I just indicated and yes you should grey-shirt Nordin. If my calculations are right there's room.

I thought Asiasi was a beast in one of the all-star camps (behind only Nauta in my opinion) and he is physically ready to play college ball. I think you take him first and if we miss on him then Allen.   

Joined: 06/22/2015

MGoPoints: 2727

DMack

January 26th, 2016 at 9:52 AM ^

Correct me if I' missing something but if we already have 25 and seven are already enrolled that would bring us down to 18 at this point. It makes sense to greyshirt Nordin because we probably wont need him and he likely wont play at all nexy season. 

This leaves room for at least 10 more:

Gary, Asiasi, Tagaloa, Hill, Stewart, McDoom, Hudson, Murphy, Jones, and Young =28.

If we lose Elliott, (which I pray we dont) and Johnson that still gives us 26 and then you could add Allen or who ever else you want but I think the guys listed are the ones I really want to see commit and we keep both Elliott and Johnson.

Since the original post, Rashad decommitted so there is another spot 

Any thoughts anyone???

Please clarify

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MGoPoints: 2727