can you blockquote it for those of us who are cheap?
landing spot. will be interesting to see how he does.
can you blockquote it for those of us who are cheap?
Or poor college students?
I think if we are going to win 12, its going to be in 2011 with a QB starting his 3rd year and a D-Line with 3 3-year starters and one 2-year starter.
don't forget about an experienced secondary (finally!) as well. Dear God we all know how important that is...
By "experienced secondary" do you mean fully-implemented "No Fly Zone"?
oh hell yes. I want Demar to come out taunting the opposing qb with a boombox playing "danger zone" from Top Gun. He'll also do the Val Kilmer exaggerated bite and tell the qb that "that's right, Terelle. Pryor. I am dangerous."
If we keep recruiting the secondary like we did this year, it will be dominant in no time. Rodriguez learned the last two years what happens if you don't have playmakers there, and I'd be surprised if he made the mistake of not keeping a stable of DBs waiting in the wings.
He calls out "at least 8 wins". I agree. 8 wins in 2010. 10 wins in 2011. 12 wins in 2012. 12 in 12 has a nice ring.
They need 12 in 11, because I will be a senior and in my last year of borderline sinful ticket access.
It'd be even better if they did that and went to the Rose Bowl next year. I'd love to be able to attend a Rose Bowl AND a NC in my tenure (And hey, they owe me after the last 2 years).
Not to be downer, but seriously owe you? The only people they owe are themselves. They are the ones putting in the hard work and taking all of the criticism from blogging sites and the media like the Free p(os). Yes we do get rewarded when they win, but I dont feel like we are owed anything even if I do spend countless hours a week on this site. Hell, I worked for free for a summer to help out the team. I just dont think that being a fan for a couple lousy years gives us a sense of entitlement. Rich Rod, his staff, and the players are owed it!
wins - umass, bgsu, @IU, ill, @pur
maybe - @ND, uconn, msu, iowa
lose - @PSU, @OSU, wisc
gotta win 3 on top of the automatic wins, which means no let downs. i suppose a win over uconn would be the most likely, with MSU and ND next.
i feel good about 8, but i dread any sentence containing the phrase "molk's knee."
I'd like an insider's perspective on how ND is going to be next season. New coach, new QB, new systems... They've been getting pretty huge recruiting classes the last few years, but I'm curious how they adjust to all the changes.
I also think that we thump them:
1. New QB coming off surgery (right)
2. New coaches, new schemes
3. Mostly new WRs
4. Defense will still suck
If we don't beat BK next year we will be in for a VERY long year.
I agree with your points and yet counting on UM to win in South Bend is never wise.
Counting on South Bend to be a great home field advantage is a bit questionable IMO... doesn't seem like it gets too loud down there.
The X factor for next season is Molk. If Molk is healthy, 8-10 wins is very possible. If he is not, then 6-9 is a more probable range (closer to the 6).
I worry about the zebras more than the crowd when playing at ND. When the ND QB fumbles at the two, and the ball never crosses the goal line, and it is still ruled a TD, it makes it a lot harder to win. I have also never seen a play where the ND offensive linemen are not holding, and yet I have never seen holding called on ND in South Bend.*
Not that I am bitter or anything.
*Only exaggerating slightly here
I am not counting on the crowd in SB at all, it's only a reflection of UM's ability to roughly split with ND despite having vastly superior teams in most years. And remember, two years ago UM found a way to lose there despite a bad ND team. Even some very good UM teams have lost to bad ND teams in SB.
found a lot of ways to lose to a lot of teams. I wouldn't think there's much to take from that game.
you could have said much the same about michigan's team vs ND last year.
Keep in mind, the game's in South Bend, where weird things often happen. We've had many good teams lose there. Over the past couple of decades, the outcome of the ND game hasn't had that much predictive value for the rest of the season.
It's not nearly as mesmerizing as most Michigan fans think.
They make it tough on themselves almost everytime...:)
for some reason it still is for UM. Carr only won once in South Bend (2006), ditto Moeller (1994) although his tenure wasn't very long, and Bo won their twice (1978 and 1986). Weird things just seem to happen to UM in South Bend.
They have close games due to the fact that they play ND the week after us, ND is spent (happy or sad). Just anoter reason to hate MSU (there fucking parasites).
road in a place we haven't had a lot of historical success and all that ...
Mostly new WRs? Floyd, Kumarra (sp?), Evans all coming back, no? Plus Rudolph is one of the better TEs in the country. That group will go up against a pretty inexperience group in M's secondary. I don't like this match up one bit, even if Crist hasn't had a lot of game experience. (Think of when Henne had Braylon and co.)
I don't feel good about a Warren-less secondary with likely one true freshman (Christian) playing significant time, and a redshirt freshman (Turner) starter against Floyd and Rudolph at all. In fact, with regret I have to say that I'll be surprised if we win there.
I hate to be a downer too, but Floyd vs. Anyone in our secondary next year is probably a match up we're gonna lose.
I think our best chance to win (and its a good chance) is to run up the score like we did in 2006
thankful Tate left early. Floyd will get his yards against any team if Crist is somewhat functional and has time to throw. At least our youngins in the secondary are going to know they won't face anyone better on the balance of the schedule.
I feel about Floyd (and formerly Tate) the way my Dame friends used to feel about Mario. Shoe's on the other foot, and it fits like crap.
Floyd is absolutely ridiculous, both one of my favorite WRs to watch and the one I am most terrified of.
Also losing 3 starters from a very good OL, if I'm not mistaken.
Penn State is very beatable this year. They lost their starting QB and will start a freshman. They lost a lot on Defense and our offense is only going to improve. I would move PSU into the maybe section.
Kevin Newsome is a sophomore, no?
is a sophomore. He didn't RS. Unless the poster thinks one of the two incoming freshman QBs will start.
From everything i have read online, Newsome is still very raw. I would not be surprised at all if Bolden came in a started. Which ever way you cut it, PSU is going to be starting a QB thats never played major college ball. This is in our advantage.
I was just confirming for the other poster that Newsome did not redshirt. A couple of years of misses in QB recruiting forced him into back up role last year, it seems. Ordinarily I assume they would have preferred to have him sit a year.
I think Scout and Rivals are both higher on Paul Jones than they are Bolden, if I remember correctly. Jones is an early enrollee, and there seems to be some chatter that Bolden is probably likely to redshirt. We'll see. At any rate, totally agree. There will be a big fall off from Clark.
Isn't PSU more beatable than Iowa? Penn State has to establish a new QB.
splitting hairs at this point, meant to show that getting to 8, you have 5 "automatics" and need 3 "maybes" or "probably-nots"
but you are right, hard to say if psu or iowa is better, but since iowa is at home that is why they are a maybe rather than a game @PSU, IMO.
Screw that. Ohio State is going down this year.
They really should have last year.
But I think I would put @IU in the maybe column. We almost lost to them this year, they return some decent players, and played OSU tough at home this year.
Also, Purdue (as much as I hate to say it) should be in the maybe column. We have not been able to stop their offense for two years now, and our green seconday (and less effective pass rush) may not be up to the task this year.
we don't have four 20 yard losses on snaps that sail past our QB again this year.
MSU is a "more likely" victory than UConn.
I disagree. How can rival be a easier win? Not just that but MSU is just better than UCONN.
First and foremost, MSU was not better than UConn last year, and nothing leads me to believe that they will be this year.
Secondly, for a rival, Michigan has dominated MSU historically. Being a rival only buys you so many points. If you can't back it up with talent and experience, you're dead in the water. Who is goign to run the ball for MSU? Who is Cousins going to throw to? Who are they going to put on the field that can stop anyone? I'm not foolish enough to guarantee a victory, but I'm less worried about MSU than I am a solid, yet unheralded, opening day opponent. Sound familiar?
Purdue will be a tough game.
But after the drama of last year, how the game ended, the growing hatred between coaching staffs, the players, etc, it's actually one of the games I am looking forward to the most.
and another 5-win season wouldn't surprise me at all. I might have to put an icepick in my brain after another losing season, but it wouldn't be a shocker to me.
Donny Downer over here. I appreciate a bit of realism but I dont see us with another losing season this year. I think 7-8 wins is likely. Of course I know you want that to happen as well.
You honestly wouldn't be surprised if the team didn't improve over last year?! And six wins *tops*? At least unless we start to win on the road? What if they "prove" they can win on the road in week 2; does that change your prediction (in which case, like, how bold a prediction is this? if Michigan wins zero games on the road next year they can only win 7 by definition)?
Man, are you even excited for the season?
Absolutely. The recruiting classes that RR has brought in have a large number of players that seem to have plenty of potential, and I obviously hope that they live up to it. However, based purely on what has transpired on the field the last two years, I don't think RR has proven beyond any doubt that he and his staff can get it done here—there's room for skepticism, especially defensively. Don't jump to the conclusion that I'm a RR hater; nothing could be further from the truth. There's nothing I want more than to see RR stuff a 10-win season up Rosenberg's ass. I just don't make predictions on hope, that's all. I've won lots of bets over the years betting against Michigan in the Rose Bowl, especially when we play USC. I hope we beat them as much as any other UM fan, but when it comes to making predictions and my money, hope is irrelevant. Obviously, if we win on the road, my prediction will be proven wrong, and I'll be ecstatic about it. It's just that going 1-8 and giving up over 38 pts per road game the last two seasons is not something I can ignore as simply the random bloody-mindedness of the universe.
...you're not a RR hater (you post on here enough for me know you weren't being an idiot or anything--I didn't neg you, btw). Its just that I have been accused in the past of being too coldly realistic (not making predictions based on hope and the like) and I would be pretty shocked if the team didn't win 7 games next year (barring major injuries or something). Its just tough for me to imagine the offense not improving significantly, and despite losing Graham and Warren, I honestly think the defense will be at least as good overall as it was last year (not great, I know, but they were good enough in a few games--MSU and IOWA come to mind--that if the offense had just been a little better--less turnover prone, etc--that those game will be Ws this next year). Like you, I hope you're wrong!
Iowa will be better so I'm not sure on that one.
And in general, I don't think that we are giving enough credit to the rest of the Big Ten, it should be a good conference this year. I doubt that we can beat Iowa, Wisconsin or Ohio State.
...that we'd beat Iowa this year (although I think we'll have a pretty decent shot). I meant more: the games in which the defense plays not great, but probably good enough to win if the offense doesn't turn it over profusely, like the Iowa game from last year, will more likely be wins this year, because of offensive improvement. Maybe it will happen against Penn State this year (they're worse). Maybe it will be Illinois. Or Purdue. I just have a hard time seeing this team winning fewer than 7. Of course I could be wrong, but lets hope I'm not.
Well we were all forecasting 7 or 8 wins for this past year and we all know how that turned out. Just because he isn't sipping the Kool-Aid doesn't mean he's wrong. Our defense will be bad again.
A potentially big difference is that now we can go into next season with an experienced QB, whereas last year we were talking about whether our freshmen could beat out Nick Sheridan.
At any rate, it's a sad state of affairs when predicting 7-8 wins qualifies as "sipping the Kool-Aid." Please let this be the last offseason we ever make statements like that.
The OP: 8 wins in '10, 10 in '11, and 12 in '12.
That's exactly what we were saying last year but this year was supposed to be the 10 win year. We are not that good, and we're in a good conference. Rodriguez has not proven anything here yet, we haven't done anything. There is not really much proof to say that we're going to be much better next year.
No, there's not proof. But a reason to think we might be markedly better? yeah. We have a lot of returning starters, finally some continuity in terms of the major coaches/coordinators, Rodriguez's recruits are not all true freshman and sophomores anymore. Does this team have a lot of problems and question marks? Yes. More than last year? No. (Do I like to pose questions to myself? Sometimes)
I'm all about keeping a level head about things, but to say this team isn't much better than last year's team seems to be overstating the problems/question marks to me.
I figured 7-5 this year, I was wrong (I'll always believe a healthy Molk would have gotten us those two extra wins, you think we wouldn't have pushed in from the 1 against the Illini w/ Molk?).
There's plenty of proof to say we'll be better next year:
-Real depth on D vs. white-guy walk-ons (albeit no Graham/Warren, but I'll take no holes over two stars anyday)
-Two non-freshmen returning QB's
-An experienced o-line
-New luxury suites (don't those guarantee a win or two?)
-26 ninja like RB's and WR's
-Wes Welker returning punts
most people were predicting 7 or 8 wins because they thought we would have minor (our best offensive player) playing more than half the season and didnt expect our safety and LBs to be nearly as bad as they were...we have more information about our defensive situation this year and obviously minor's injured ass wont be a factor
You didn't even mention losing Molk.
Well, what gave us reason to think that they would be good? We had like three returning starters on defense.
As for injuries, yes they did hurt us a lot.
ezeh and mouton were returning starters and were expected to be pretty good...maybe not great or even good, but most people i remember talking about the team with were expecting them to be pretty good...and i'm sure most people expected our safeties to be at least average big ten players..instead we got kovacs' 4.7 speed and mike williams was just a mess...as much as people wanted to bash boubacar, if he didnt get kicked off the team our defense would have at least been bad instead of awful
Mouton had a very solid second half of the year in 2008 and most people were hoping/expecting that would carry over into 2009. Instead Mouton seemed to have regressed a lot in the off-season.
and obviously minor's injured ass wont be a factor
Yes, but will Vincent Smith's and Fitzgerald Toussaint's injured asses be a factor?
by the negging, considering the last two seasons.
I'm as cautiously optimistic as the next guy, but seeing as it took a last minute come from behind effort to beat the last place team in the conference (and give us our ONLY conference win) I'd cut anyone a little slack for being a bit gun shy.
We'll be a very improved team over last year, but last year we kinda sucked.
And while I understand what happened with Molk; if one lineman can be blamed for 7 losses, we've got more problems than his foot.
Personally, I'm predicting a rose colored 8, then a nice bowl win. But hell, 6 wouldn't surprise me either.
Yes, our only conference win was a nail-biter. But we played three other nail-biters (MSU, Iowa, Purdue), as well as a very competitive game against OSU, and dropped all of them. It did not help that we played the second half of the season without probably our two best offensive players. Basically, we didn't catch a break after the IU game.
We were not a good team by any means, but we were very close to having a few more wins. From that we return most of our team (minus a few good starters, admittedly), and should actually have an 85-man roster, instead of 70 last year. Perhaps most importantly, we don't have to start a freshman (or walk-on) at QB for the first time in the RR era. It would be surprising if we did not have a somewhat better season in 2010.
If one lineman could be blamed for 7 losses, wouldn't that mean our only problem IS his foot?
the only game i REALLY don't feel confident that we can win is @OSU. PSU won't be as good as they were last year, and I thought we played well enough on offense against wisky last year to give me some confidence we can compete with them this year. I think we'll win one of the games against PSU, Iowa, or Wisky this year.
I feel like being afraid of OSU probably isn't the way we'll turn the rivalry around. I'm looking forward to this November and hopefully punching their lights out in Columbus.
PS - I can't stand the idea of being afraid of Ohio State. All due respect, but every time someone lets off any kind of "fear" of them or The Game, I get the image of Sheridan getting crushed in the 08 game and just sitting there on the ground while an OSU player stands over him. That's disgusting. Losing the "bring it on" attitude makes rivalries suck.
I appreciate the vim and vigor, but you know we don't affect the outcomes of the games, right?
Yeah, but he's pointing out in his example (Nick Sheridan) that he's seen this attitude mirrored in the players and it bugs him, too. We're Michigan, dammit. Of course we're going to beat OSU, we don't let reality get in the way.
rtyler paraphrased it really well. But, to put it in perspective, what do you consider our alternative? You either take an aggressive attitude to your rival, or in our case lately, you take the Sheridan-Fetal-Position-on-Ground stance as they roll you. Fuck that, it may not have an outcome on the game but what's the fun in being a fan of anything if you're going to be mentally weak (not saying you are, but just in general)?
Also, in a psychological sense, if a fan base takes on a more aggressive (as opposed to being that passive dude who gets knocked to the ground) mentality, who knows, maybe it WOULD benefit the players. There's a reason that there is a distinction between Death Valley and the Big House, and while LSU fans may not always be the classiest of people, I'd guess you'd be far more nervous to have your team playing there than @ Michigan, even when we're a 9-win team.
So not to overlook this coming season, but however the team does doesn't the below schedule look REALLY favorable for 2011?
If someone predicts that you're under the radar!
exactly. I like being "misunderestimated" (as George Bush once quipped).
I actually believe most teams will be very wary of Michigan this year. We're not a doormat any more with two solid recruiting years behind us.
I don't make predictions in February, but any positive outlooks from the MSM are cool in my book. Hopefully we can live up to his belief in our team.
Wisconsin and Ohio State are the only two games I feel, as of right now, that will end with a loss, though every other game is a very winnable game. I think Iowa is going to be a good test, though we get them at home this year, which helps. With a young team, having the two toughest games at the end of the season, that should help, and give the young guys some games under their belt before hosting Wisconsin and heading down to Columbus.
If any of the young DBs play where they show an inkling like the above-mentioned, we are going to be in fine shape. If not this season, then 2011 for sure.
Gee, thanks for the positive thinking. We will not lose to UConn and ND. Won't happen.
But I think starting 2011, we'll be on our way to domination again. The question is, if 2010 goes bad, does RR get another year, in which I think he should. By going bad, I mean 5 or 6 wins, what's your opinion on that?
12 wins has a nice ring
one more has a nice ring and a nice crystal football