FEI / S&P+ For Big 10 and Selected Others - Week 12
Second to last week so a lot of firm data out there now.
A few general thoughts on top this week and then we'll move on to the data:
- At this moment FEI has UM and OSU as almost identical teams in total offense and total defense. S&P+ has more variance between the 2 but it's not really that far off either. If you had told me these things 6 months ago I'd have scoffed. #Harbaugh
- Iowa has a great record but only a "good" advanced stat profile. It reminds me a lot of that of OK State (which I noted last week) so I sniff some fraud in there when they face a true top 10ish team. Damnit I wish that was going to be us.
- The Big 10 continues to struggle on offense. Only Indiana and MSU are firm top 25ish teams. UM and OSU (gasp) are decent offenses, along with Nebraska and Iowa. The other 8 teams are sh$tshows. This has become an annual tradition as QB play lacks in the conference by and large.
- There has been a bit of a dropoff in Big 10 defenses in 2015 - usually the bad offenses in the conf allow 7-8 teams to finish very strong in advanced stats on D but this year it is only 6.
- I feel bad for Les. If LSU's advanced stat profile would be in the Big 10 West or ACC Coastal I think they'd be undefeated or 1 loss at worst. Instead without a lot of cupcakes in conf he is headed to pasture.
- Northwestern (notwithstanding the 2 big losses) is doing amazing things with a horrific offense.
- Clemson and Oklahoma continue to impress although Oklahoma might have suffered some serious hits last week with injuries to QB and top 2 running backs.
- B.C. (not on chart) is the most bipolar team in nation - FEI D #3 FEI O #124.
dFEI | dS&P+ | oFEI | oS&P+ | ||
UM | 11 | 2 | 39 | 40 | |
OSU | 8 | 8 | 38 | 24 | |
MSU | 23 | 20 | 19 | 29 | |
NWestern | 7 | 6 | 107 | 112 | |
PSU | 17 | 11 | 76 | 70 | |
Minnesota | 52 | 25 | 66 | 59 | |
Maryland | 63 | 41 | 92 | 100 | |
Indiana | 108 | 105 | 23 | 18 | |
Rutgers | 117 | 114 | 65 | 92 | |
Nebraska | 80 | 56 | 28 | 37 | |
Wisconsin | 14 | 7 | 77 | 88 | |
Iowa | 44 | 28 | 24 | 42 | |
Purdue | 100 | 67 | 69 | 94 | |
Illinois | 57 | 15 | 67 | 99 | |
Utah | 12 | 22 | 64 | 53 | |
BYU | 49 | 37 | 37 | 39 | |
Oregon St | 95 | 112 | 105 | 84 | |
UNLV | 113 | 109 | 92 | 96 | |
Clemson | 6 | 4 | 15 | 11 | |
Bama | 2 | 1 | 31 | 32 | |
ND | 40 | 32 | 6 | 9 | |
Oklahoma | 1 | 14 | 20 | 8 | |
OK Staee | 22 | 53 | 29 | 15 | |
Florida | 13 | 5 | 51 | 56 | |
Stanford | 58 | 52 | 7 | 10 | |
TCU | 54 | 69 | 22 | 7 | |
Baylor | 50 | 70 | 2 | 1 | |
LSU | 38 | 47 | 16 | 13 | |
Arizona | 101 | 113 | 30 | 30 | |
Oregon | 77 | 87 | 9 | 6 |
Michigan Stuff
- UM FEI defense fell from #7 to #11 (was #2 three weeks ago). Important to remember it is not just last week's opponent that changes this, but all your prior opponents i.e. Utah's offense looking inept vs UCLA hurts UM's D rank. S&P+ defense climbed from #3 to #2.
- UM FEI & S&P+ offense has been very stable for weeks on end around #40.
- UM FEI "special teams efficiency" stabilized at #14. It was #1 three weeks ago and #5 two weeks ago.
NCAA Stats - these judge an offense or defense only on total yards.
NCAA Stats for comparison:
- Total Offense: 72 - 389.1 yds/game (up from #98 three weeks ago, thank you Scarlet Knights & Hoosiers)
- Total Defense: 2 - 263.1 yds/game [The Big 10 has 6 of the top 16 defenses per NCAA, in part due to.... Big 10 offenses]
November 24th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^
I tend to lean to FEI over S&P+, as I think the FEI strength of schedule adjustments in particular are more pertinent but I like both over the basic NCAA stats which adjust for nothing. FEI also just seems to work with the eye test more often than not the past few years I have followed these stats.
That said, I find both superior to NCAA stats which judge total offense and total defense on nothing more than yards "gained" or "given up" and don't adjust for SOS in any way.
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Definitions:
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.
The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).
The components for S&P+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency), explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
November 24th, 2015 at 4:59 PM ^
Year 1 of Harbaugh offense = year 4 of Meyer's offense? Cool
November 24th, 2015 at 5:10 PM ^
I know right?
Would you take Jake or Barrett right now at this moment for 1 game @ QB?
The fact you'd hesitate says it all!
This is why we can't take anything for granted in 1 year over the next - that OSU offense was going to be Baylor 2.0 since almost everyone came back from 2014. Yet it didn't happen.
Likewise, we will all assume the next 8 months the 2016 UM D will be great next year but we do lose BUCK/Wilson/all LBs (even if meh) so no guarantees of anything. That's the lesson OSU 2015 O tells me.
Anyhow should be a damn fascinating game.
November 24th, 2015 at 6:06 PM ^
Absolutely, though at least with UM they shouldn't lose the coaching staff that built it up. Herman leaving really submarined their offense, and the fact Meyer was asleep at the wheel for so long and let it get this bad isn't going to happen at UM.
November 24th, 2015 at 6:05 PM ^
Shakes out about how I thought. UM's offense is trending up while OSU's is going down. My guess is that if UM played MSU now, it would be a bloodbath. Right now UM is the best team in this conference (sorry Iowa), and it is highly unlikely they'll even get a chance to play for the division title.
November 24th, 2015 at 6:43 PM ^
MSU plays to the level of competition and Michigan and OSU game shows why. It won't be a bloodbath if they played again especially when Cook is healthy. It's pretty clear that MSU plays to the level of competition and do enough to pull out a win.
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November 25th, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^
I don't buy that completely; with Cook they are a pretty good team, but when they played OSU they didn't do anything all that special that convinced OSU to throw the ball 3 times in the second half. OSU called one of the worst games I've ever seen, and that was kind of opponent agnostic. And against UM, they were scrambling for long stretches and only won because of a flukey end result. Even Oregon, with a busted-up QB, nearly beat them. And they've maintained a crazy TO margin that feels unsustainable. My guess is that next year they'll lose 3-4 games and everyone will say it's because of all the talent lost which, sure, is part of it, but it is also just a regression from flipping heads 15 times in a row.
November 25th, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
UM has solid D and win/loss results this year despite awful luck on fumble recoveries. 1 until Saturday and last in FBS are unbelievable for a top 5ish defense. MSU has been good and lucky, which is a winning combination.