A Fairly Simple Calculus

Submitted by MGlobules on

Over the next few days, all of us will struggle to boil this latest debacle down to the essential questions. Mine comes down to this: is the talent being coached? Is it reaching its potential? If our squads match everyone in the B1G's for talent, why aren't we winning?

It is easy to say, in the wake of such losses--humiliation piling on humiliation--that it is not the coach's fault if the players do not perform. I would beg to differ. At some point, in deciding whether to cut our losses with Hoke, we have to ask: if our recruiting is strong is that translating to success on the field?

AT SOME POINT YOU HAVE TO LAY THE BLAME FOR POOR PERFORMANCE ON COACHING, stop blaming the kids.

Hoke isn't going anywhere at the moment. But this is a low-water mark, another in a lengthening list of them. And our record has worsened over three seasons as we moved from RichRod's much-maligned players to Hoke's. 

If Hoke is an inspiring figure, a leader, we are either going to see it over the rest of the season. THE TIME IS NOT NEXT YEAR BUT NOW. I don't see how, by any rational calculus, he has more time than that.

 

 

Bodogblog

September 7th, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^

It also forces a farther throw and puts you as the defender between the QB and the WR, ie the ball's flight path (at least until you get burned). A slant in man coverage with blitzing LBs is easy money for a competent offense: simple pitch and catch, blitz has no time to get home, and the LB is not dropping into that passing lane. You simply cannot allow that receiver inside.

MilkSteak

September 7th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^

Let me get this straight: you want to put in a true sophomore QB with 50 passes attempted in his career, no touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in for a sixth year senior with experience in 40 games, who threw for 21 tds and 11 ints last year behind what might have been the worst line in the last 10 years for Michigan. Yes this makes a ton of sense. If you think Morris is the answer to our problems you weren't watching last night.

Clarence Beeks

September 7th, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^

I going to catch hell for this, but they actually aren't that far apart. That last TD of the first half was it. Game was over at that point. You just see that happen so often that a team has a number of things like that go bad early on the road (two missed FGs and a late TD) and just lose it. So I'm not really that surprised by what happened in the second half. Up to that point we moved the ball, but just couldn't convert. They could, and did early, so that was all it really boiled down to.

dnak438

September 7th, 2014 at 11:46 AM ^



LSAClassOf2000

September 7th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^

The middle one is a bit cringeworthy admittedly.

We've changed OCs (trying not to judge Nussmeier by previous seasons, of course), so it was difficult to know offensively what would happen based on the Appalachian State game (though we did what we should have done in that game), but 289 yards and zero points to show for it is a bit disappointing, to say the least. Not exactly how I would have liked to see this rivalry end. My hope is that this game, at least offensively, was growing pains, but we'll see, I suppose. 

dnak438

September 7th, 2014 at 12:47 PM ^

My point wasn't that previous losses are on Nussmeier, of course, or that there is no hope for the future -- I like the idea of growing pains --, but rather that the anger and exasperation on the board isn't just the result of the Notre Dame game. The program is sliding (in terms of the on-field product) and has been since Denard got hurt and then graduated. It's true that the Notre Dame loss was "just one game" but it's also true that it is part of a broader pattern of suck.

ifis

September 7th, 2014 at 11:53 AM ^

I was disappointed in the game, but it was one non conference game. We could improve (at this time last year sta*e fans were calling for Dantonio's head bc their offense was even worse than ours is now). I am much less concerned about this than many on this board. The ND game did suck (I was there), but that is fine IF we learn from it.

BlueGoM

September 7th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^

OK so 2 games in you want the coach out, fine. The whole staff or just Hoke?

Who are you going to replace him with?

And don't f-ing say Harbaugh.  He's not coming here.

Who is going to want to come here after the pitchfork crowd forces out a coach after 2 games?

Lastly, some perspective:

Michigan ranking in total defense,
  2010: 110th  Rodriguez/Robinson
  2011:   17th  Hoke/Mattison

ifis

September 7th, 2014 at 8:43 PM ^

Firebreathing, capricious pitchfork carriers, most of our problems are on o. We brought Nuss in less than100 practices ago at your behest. Transitions hurt. IF the team is not better by the end of the year, THEN we can talk about coaching changes. Hell, most of you ordained Nuss as Hoke's replacement in January!

SalvatoreQuattro

September 7th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^

successful at Michigan. Your implied argument is that "There's no one else so let's just stay the course." Blagh.

Ohio State found a great--if ethically challenged coach--at the FCS level. Great coaches are to be found in many places. The hard part  is in identfying those coaches. That's where you need a good athletic director. 

BlueTimesTwo

September 7th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^

For years many Michigan fans have been hoping that Dantonio and/or Narduzzi would get hired away because they seem capable of overachieving their talent level.  Pretty much all of our rivals hope that Hoke will continue to be our coach so that we will continue to underachieve our talent level.  Isn't that really all you need to know?

Also, as our talent level and depth has improved, our results have gotten worse.  How is that not coaching related?  Even though I want him fired today, you have to take a look at how the season develops before making such a drastic change.  If we do make a change, however, you back up as many truckloads of money as it takes to get your preferred candidate, and not another bargain hire just because he is a "Michigan Man."  The fact that we got Hoke while OSU got Meyer (ethical issues aside), puts us at a coaching disadvantage.  Also, if we do make a change, the new coach has to be such a great hire that there is no attrition because people are excited about the new coach.

bighouse22

September 7th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^

That is the truth!  Every MSU and OSU person that I know makes the same comment.  They all want him to keep coaching, because Michigan has become a cakewalk form their teams!  Didn't Urban say last year something to the effect that MSU was the bigger threat to OSU than Michigan.  He was right on point!

Eat Your Wheatlies

September 7th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^

Re: Morris

The guy has 0 career touchdowns vs. 3 interceptions thrown. Gardner isn't a great decision maker, but when he has a DL in his face a fraction of a second after the ball is snapped then he doesn't stand much of a chance.

Ed: Response to Morris over Gardner

UMForLife

September 7th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^

If we lose to MSU this year, Hoke needs to be given the boot, USC style. Nuss can coach the rest of the year and it will be a good audition to see if he should be given a full time contract. If not, go hire someone good. Big name coach and no MAC coach. Will it happen? Probably not. Here is for wishful thinking...

alum96

September 7th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^

Name me one position GROUP (not player) we have a better unit than MSU

They have like 5 WRs, we have the better ONE not group.

TE if Butt was 100% is maybe a wash.

Nothing on defense do we have better.  I thought our LBs would be better - they are not.  Jake Ryan seems lost now and regressed.  Countess seems lost and regressed.  Our DL was horrid yesterday  against a good not great OL.

Who has the better coaching staff?

Where is the game played?  Tell me Hoke's record on the road versus teams with a heartbeat

If anyone here seriously thinks we are going to MSU against a top 10 team and winning I have a lemon farm for you.  MSU >>> ND.  And they hate us far more than ND.

Leonhall

September 7th, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^

A week ago I was under the impression we could beat state, but now, and how we have digressed every season? State will beat us like 38-3, hell, they might repay us the 49-0 shellacking we gave them years ago. Their program is light years ahead of ours. We have little chance in that game unless we improve greatly, which this staff hasn't proved it can do in 4 years, I will root my ass of, but for now, anyone stating we'll beat them has the maize glasses on.


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bigfan2959

September 7th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^

You got all confident because we beat App St.?  We crushed Central last year in the opener.  Same thing.  I wasn't the least bit impressed or excited after last week.  We re like the Lions now.  It's funny at this point listening to all the belly aching, just like after all Lions games. 

RobM_24

September 7th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^

We've lost one game. Our OC is 2 games in. Our DC based his scheme around press coverage, and basically went all game without 2 of his 3 top CBs. Let's see how the season goes. There's no point in firing a coach that recruits well, unless you have a slam dunk hire waiting in the dugout.

Mgo-Bo

September 7th, 2014 at 12:32 PM ^

All this young talent is being stunted by developing a game plan around a senior quarterback who honestly is just not that good. If the team is gonna grow, they have to grow together THAT MEANS put a quarterback in who is also a young talent. Until then the medium talent forces it's hand on the real talent of the team


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Tater

September 7th, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^

This team can still wini 9 or 10 this year.  Statistically, though it is unlikely, it can still win 14.  This offense only works when you have more talent than the other guy, but Michigan will be in that situation at least 7 more times this year.  The team can also improve as the year goes on .  We just don't know.

 

goblue20111

September 7th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^

The problem is a coach who shows zero intestity or interest.  He looks apathetic at times and uninvolved.  When a guy fucks up, get in his face.  We all make fun of Kelly being purple and yellling and screaming but guess what....it works? Meyer, Saban, etc. aren't afraid to get in a guy's face.  This is high level football, not goddamn Pop Warner clapping and butt slaps only get you so far. 

Who is a big improvement over Hoke though? Harbaugh doesn't seem realistic.  Is Les Miles a stop gap until we bring in someone who can take over for a long time? Neither are well liked in the AD so I don't think they would happen.  Sumlin is king in Texas right now.  He doesn't have to leave the state to fill his class with elite talent if he wants.  Saban ain't leaving.  Shaw? I'm struggling to think of names.  anyone got any more?

jblaze

September 7th, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^

People are all different. It's like with kids. If you yell and scream at them, some respond, some start crying uncontrollably. I think the players (and kids) respond to coaches who are serious (regardless of style). 

BTW, I don't think Saban goes nuclear on players (at least on camera).

mackbru

September 7th, 2014 at 2:55 PM ^

People keep yammering about how the pool of coaching candidates will be woefully thin at year's end. But, really, nobody knows which coaches will be available at that time. Seasons get derailed; coaches get restless or resentful; money talks. By November, in all likelihood, a few more solid candidates will be available.

The trick is to just not wait until very late in the cycle before making the change, as Brandon did last time around.  By the time he pulled the trigger, all the top candidates were off the board, and it was too late to reassemble a good recruiting class. (Yes, I realize he may well have been waiting on Harbaugh, who may well have gone back on his word to Brandon. But a good AD doesn't get left holding the bag.)

Wolverine In Iowa

September 7th, 2014 at 3:00 PM ^

My two cents - keep Hoke through this year.  He is then immediately eligible to be fired from the start of the 2015 season at any point.  Then, after the 2015 season, a serious evaluation needs to occur on whether to keep him.  In fact, I suggest we actively publicize that we are looking at other guys after this season is over to somehow motivate Hoke et al. that the time for success is now.  The core of Hoke's recruiting classes (starting with 2012) will be seniors or redshirt juniors in 2015 - no excuses.