Expansion Speculation
The Big 12 and the Big East look to be firmly on the path to destruction. What will things look like when the dust settles? What will it mean for the Big 10? The recent moves of Syracuse and Pitt to the ACC throws a monkey wrench into everyone's thinking, in so much as it was always thought that football and the TV revenues from football would be the driver. The ACC expansion shows that basketball is on the table as well. Again, where will things settle out when it is all said and done?
One of the factors that is important to the Big 10 is academic standing, and a part of that is membership in the AAU (Association of American Universities). Although important, it is not the only criteria as the addition of Nebraska shows. Apparently the Big 10 is working with Nebraska to facilitate entrance into the AAU. As the Big East and the Big 12 crumble, what AAU schools might be attractive to the Big 10? Which of them adds value both in terms of academics, but also TV revenue from expanded markets in both football and basketball?
Here are the teams:
Iowa State (Big 12)
Rutgers (Big East)
Kansas (Big 12)
Missouri (Big 12)
If the Big 10 were to add Kanasas and Missouri, could they add Oklahoma as now you would have contiguous geography, even though they are not an AAU member?
September 20th, 2011 at 12:04 PM ^
Iowa State? Please. If we don't want 2 teams in Pennsylvania, we sure don't want another crappy team in Iowa.
September 20th, 2011 at 11:36 AM ^
September 20th, 2011 at 12:03 PM ^
That's because Nebraska doesn't belong in the AAU, as of now. It's not like the schools that voted them out did it to spite them. They just weren't meeting the criteria. With help from the Big 10, hopefully they will be able to.
September 20th, 2011 at 11:39 AM ^
1.) Sit at 12. We haven't even had a full year in this setup. Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa will make the B1G a good league most years. Throw in up-and-down Michigan State and Illinois with an improved Northwestern and there are other teams capable of contending. Out of Purdue and Minnesota, at least one of the two should be able to climb to the next group sometimes (Indiana is simply a doormat). I like the potential depth of this league, don't judge it simply on a very down 2011 for the conference.
2.) Make another splash. Raid the B12 and grab more premier programs. Recruit Oklahoma or Texas and pair them with Missouri (would join in a heartbeat) for 14 teams. If Delaney wants a 16 team super-conference, then add both sides of the Red River Shootout and add Kansas alongside Missouri.
Potential Divisions from this:
Lakes: Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Plains: Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern
September 20th, 2011 at 12:04 PM ^
Oklahoma is remora'ed to Okie State. Big 10 won't take Okie State because of academics (and OU's are shaky as well, if improving). Thus, OU is out.
September 20th, 2011 at 1:16 PM ^
Actually, in terms of research academics (the thing the CIC means when they talk about academic standing) Oklahoma State is better than Oklahoma by a large margin. They're still awful and aren't B1G caliber, but they're better than Oklahoma.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:05 PM ^
I know you're just hypothetically speaking, but Oklahoma is not going anywhere without Okie State. And after what we saw last year, Michigan and OSU will never be paired together in a division.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:44 PM ^
Yeah they are tethered to Ok State but things could always change down the road. With that being said, I think Delaney needs Texas (and all that baggage) to have any incentive to expand anytime soon.
September 20th, 2011 at 11:39 AM ^
these events are going to result in the dismantling of the Big East and the Big 12. I think other schools will join those conferences. I think the SEC will add another (WV presumably) and stop. ACC to 14 (dominating the baskebtall landscape BTW) and the Big 10 stopping at 12. I think we are closer to the end of the chaos than the beginning.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:11 PM ^
I also think that the Big East and Big 12 won't be going away anytime soon. These conferences still get automatic qualifiers to the BCS and this will attract replacement teams. They might lose the AQ status eventually, but by then the BCS contract will be up anyway and negotiations and reorganizations can begin anew.
September 20th, 2011 at 11:41 AM ^
I try to stay out of this shit because it's a total mindfuck until there is a finite answer that is known (see: Mizzou to B10).
But I gotta say our best case at this point looks like raiding the B12 for "basketball" schools such as Mizzou, Kansas, and K-State.
Fourth school is either ISU or ND.
It sounds like the ACC is being far too proactive in raiding the Big East teams that we'd be interested in (Cuse and Maryland, as well as the "NYC market" that is Rutgers (ugh, f*** Rutgers)).
September 20th, 2011 at 11:45 AM ^
The Big Ten isn't playing the "must expand because" game. They've been adamant about that to the point I believe it. An expansion team not only would have to be an AAU member, but also bring enough revenue to justify the others getting a 13th (or 14th to even the leagues) of the BTN profits instead of a 12th.
Teams that fit the bill:
- Texas
- Notre Dame
Neither program reciprocates any interest.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:15 PM ^
Has to be an AAU member?
Someone better tell Delaney and Nebraska....
Edit - I am also biased but using your criteria I fail to see how Mizzou is NOT the third team involved. KC and STL markets aren't what ND / TX would bring - but it has to be among the top 5 markets we could conceivably grab.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:25 PM ^
Well, actually, it's more like:
Texas, Notre Dame, Virginia, Maryland, Boston College and Mizzou.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:25 PM ^
If Texas goes to the ACC then Notre Dame likely will follow and it will be game over for the B1G.
If Texas goes to the Pac-16, the ACC may well grab 2 more Big East teams (U Conn and Rutgers), which will end expansion for 2 conferences. In this scenario, Notre Dame may try and hold out for a bit but they are very likely to wind up in the B1G eventually.
If Texas stays in the Big 12 or goes independent (assumig that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State join the Pac-14), this keeps both Notre Dame and Texas in play for the B1G but probably not for quite a few years and likely never as these 2 schools will have enough joint muscle to be included in the next playoff system when the BCS expires.
It will be fun to watch how all this transpires over the next 1-3 weeks with the decisions of the Pac-12 (whether to take Okl/Okl St alone), and Texas (on whether to join them) will be the next moves along with whether the ACC stops for now at 14.
Popcorn!
September 23rd, 2011 at 5:52 AM ^
Keep in mind the Big Ten is already really strong on the top. No other conference, even in any of those scenarios, has something like Michigan/Ohio State/Nebraska/Penn State. There's a sharp dropoff from there (you could probably fit most of the SEC between Penn State and Wisconsin/Iowa/Illinois). The ACC plus ND is still them plus FSU, Miami (YTM) and then a lot of teams I would rank below Iowa. The Pac 12 has USC and then a handful of great schools with historically crappy teams -- until Tedford and Harbaugh Cal=Indiana and Stanford=Northwestern, UCLA hasn't been nationally relevant for 20 years. If they get Texas and Oklahoma that would be huge for them, but then it's still three teams on that top tier and a lot of Big Ten analogues.*
Then there's the SEC. They have Bama from Tier 1, and then they've like cornered the market on Tier 2 with Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida. Nouveau riche LSU might be on its way to that tier. I wouldn't put any one of those programs on par with Penn State or Texas or USC, but neither would I put them on a level with Iowa. Is anyone in the ACC anywhere close to that? In the Pac? In the Big? You have to get to Ole Miss and Arkansas before finding analogues for the typical Big Ten or Pac 12 team.
The point of all this is there's no conference alignment scenario out there at the moment that does anything to jeopardize the Big Ten being a premier conference. If Texas and Oklahoma went to the ACC that might change things. That would also be a bad fit for them.
As for ND, they have a pretty good reason to stay out of the Big Ten for now. They don't need the exposure in the Midwest any more than they already have, and they don't have to sacrifice their rivalry games all over the country. ND sees their independence as their raison d'etre; if they joined the Big Ten what makes them so different from Purdue?
* I think this makes them a better rival conference for the Big Ten than the SEC. Their programs
September 20th, 2011 at 11:46 AM ^
Don't know what other thread to put this in...but
http://twitter.com/McMurphyCBS/statuses/116175835815350272
September 20th, 2011 at 11:53 AM ^
Now, why does that put a smile on my face?
Oh, right... because WVU fans are so full of themselves, and anything to bring them back to reality -- that their school and state is a poophole -- is delicious.
September 20th, 2011 at 11:56 AM ^
The ACC will likely add two more schools (UCONN and perhaps Rutgers). Four 16 team super conferences are coming.
Texas will be more of a headache than a boon to whatever conference they end up in.
ND could be left begging to enter the Big 10.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:04 PM ^
Please no Rutgers in the ACC. Let them finally die in the Left-Behind Conference.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:16 PM ^
what about getting boston college
then we get the boston market and a 7th big ten hockey team, they have usually solid football and basketball
then add Notre dame and you got 8 teams in big ten hockey, plus ND and BC are rivals also.
those are the 2 i go after
September 20th, 2011 at 12:24 PM ^
I don't think BC would ever have been a viable option, but even if there were mutual interest, the ACC's new $20M exit fee is too large a barrier to overcome, imo.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:47 PM ^
I don't know about BC but a 20 M buyout is not going to stop a move where there is mutual interest. Schools pay multi-million dollar buyouts all the time just to get rid of a bad football coaches. If taking BC would get us Notre Dame, the B1G would likely structure a deal to make this buyout disappear very quickly given the new revenue that this would drive for the B1G and the BTN.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:47 PM ^
No way BC leaves - zero-percent. Outside of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, they're the happiest of all in the ACC with the move. No longer are they on an island - just look at what it has done to their sports porgrams.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:49 PM ^
If a school could reasonably expect to make an extra $9-$10M per year in the B1G or SEC, that buyout isn't enough to keep them in the ACC.
BC isn't an option, but if the SEC wants FSU, they're gone imo.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:29 PM ^
Mmmmm "Boston Market".
The Boston market for college sports is pretty much nonexistant. It would be good for the BTN to expand into the area because a lot of alumni live here but it's not like they are going to gain any new fans. People either don't care about BC or they hate them.
September 20th, 2011 at 5:39 PM ^
ND likes to think of themselves as THE Catholic College and wouldn't want equality with BC. Wouldn't play them in football for years because of that. Also why they didn't join Big East, Catholic schools. Basketball, fine. Football? Never.
BC is interesting, though I think doubtful. Pitt and Cuse - especially Cuse - would have been sweet.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:31 PM ^
C'mon, man, this post is a pretty poor attempt at sounding like an informed discussion. We know what the AAU is, but you don't seem to know Nebraska's history with it.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^
There isn't a single team, including Texas and Notre Dame, that belongs in the B1G other than the teams that are already in it.
Texas and ND appear to be on separate buses to Crazytown.
The PAC12 for Texas, in the long run, the next 50-100 years? I don't see it. The only non Big 12 conference that makes sense for them is the SEC.
The ACC for ND? They'd join a "meh" football conference when football rules their world? What does the ACC do to raise the bar for them? As far as the population argument goes, if they're the "national" school they claim to be, why should that make a difference?
Good luck, guys! Glad you didn't stop by!
I'm not overly concerned about population trends regarding our conference. The fact that we're all in the same geographic boat means that we can pull together, instead of having several regional factions pushing against each other.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:40 PM ^
"One of the factors that is important to the Big 10 is academic standing, and a part of that is membership in the AAU (Association of American Universities). Although important, it is not the only criteria as the addition of Nebraska shows..."
Well, not exactly, as Nebraska was still an AAU member when the deal was done...The Big Ten went in thinking they were getting an AAU member...
September 20th, 2011 at 12:42 PM ^
Delany would step out and say 'hey, we're happy with 12.' His silence throughout all this is a little alarming.
September 20th, 2011 at 1:00 PM ^
This reminds me of a quote from a Tom Clancy book: "Rattling a sabre makes noise; drawing it does not."
Of course, neither does sitting on your hands.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:53 PM ^
I think the B1G will stay put.
IF Delaney pulls a rabbit out of the hat, I would prefer the TX/Mizzou combination.
Second would be ND/Rutgers.
I think TX and Mizzou definitely expands the BTN reach over the heartland and puts it on basic cable in 8 figure-TV sets.
ND/Rutgers, with all the B1G alumn in NYC is the ONLY chance of getting the BTN on basic cable in the NY/NJ area. RU alone, UConn alone, Syracuse alone have zero chance.
All the others (Kansas, Missouri, Iowa State, Rutgers, Syracuse, UVa, UMd), alone or in combination, are meh. They would be a net loss for the other schools, and UVa/UMd won't add more eyeballs to BTN in the Baltimore area. It's already on Verizon here :) Dunno about NoVa/DC
September 20th, 2011 at 1:32 PM ^
Penn State is in an interesting spot. It's hard to imagine that PSU would want to leave a conference that includes the two other most popular teams in the country -- in part because of prestige and tradition, in part because all of the above translate into money and TV ratings.
Then again, since PSU joined the B10, the program hasn't won as much as it had assumed it would. In the ACC, PSU would rival FSU as the best team. So PSU would likely get more wins, higher rankings, etc.
Sidenote: re the meme that says PSU fans prefer to play East Coast teams, I suspect that sentiment -- and I'm not sure whether it's actually true -- is mostly a result of PSU's record of late. If PSU were kicking ass in the B10, the fans would love the B10. These fans aren't missing out on any big Northeastern rivalry games. They can play Pitt anyway. Who else is there? BC? Syracuse? Rutgers? Gimme a break. There aren't any big rivalries to be be had in the Northeast because there aren't any big teams there. PSU's rivals, in this scenario, would be way down South -- much farther away, both logistically and culturally.
PSU ain't budging.
September 20th, 2011 at 2:27 PM ^
I grew up in PA. All my siblings went to Penn State except me. I know Penn State very well.
So let me put it this way. If Penn State was an independent now and was conference-shopping, there is no way they would pick the Big Ten over the new ACC.
The new ACC gives them an all-sports conference (the reason that they joined the Big Ten in the first place) right in their natural backyard with all of their traditional rivalries and several exciting new ones. If ND were to also join the ACC, it would be a home run.
PSU would get to be a kingpin in a demographic, recruiting, and media desireable Eastern seaboard conference instead of being in the shadows of a Midwest rust belt conference.
Don't sleep on all the PSU to ACC rumors. If they were starting from scratch, that's where they would go. Lets hope that inertia works in our favor and keeps them firmly in place in the B1G.
September 20th, 2011 at 2:15 PM ^
Absent ND and Texas, the league stays put. The B10, by adding PSU and Nebraska, has made it clear that it's only interested in adding A-list programs; it will add second-tier teams only as tie-ins. The league in no way benefits from grabbing left-overs. It's ND, Texas, or bust. As a practical matter, though, Texas just isn't a viable possibility. It's far out of the region. It's tied to Texas Tech. And, most notably, it's not gonna share TV revenue. So, really, it's ND or bust.
September 20th, 2011 at 2:32 PM ^
Pending a change of heart from Notre Dame, I don't see the B1G making any additions. The most attractive available options (Texas, Notre Dame, BC) haven't shown much interest/have to give something up to come to the B1G.
Any updates in RE: to the potential merging of the Big East/Big 12? What happens to WVU now that they've been shot down by the SEC/ACC?
September 20th, 2011 at 3:01 PM ^
Why does everyone keep bringing BC up as an attractive option? No one in Boston cares about them. They rarely sell out. They don't fit the Big Ten's academic profile. About all they'd bring is good hockey.
September 20th, 2011 at 2:37 PM ^
If the B1G can't add Notre Dame. They aren't adding anyone.
It's that simple.
They're going to add ND and one other team, or no one at all (outside of Texas, which isn't happening).
It's all about money. Other teams may have good programs, good academics, etc. But no one adds value except Notre Dame and Texas. Everyone else would just make the 12 current teams divide the pie 2 mroe ways without getting anything for it. Notre Dame and Texas double the size of the pie...so who cares if there are 2 more teams?
It's fun to speculate. But truth is, it's simple for the B1G. Notre Dame or bust. As for the ACC? They have more options...UConn and Rutgers could solidify them in the northeast, it would be worth it for them. Kansas and UConn would give them a bigger footprint and make their basketball UNREAL! Notre Dame and anyone would do the same thing for them as it would for the B1G.
The SEC will add one more team to go along with TAMU. My guess is Missouri, with Louisville next. WVU made sense, but it looks like they've been turned down. Va Tech would make sense, but they now have a $20 million buyout.
To me the biggest story? Will the Big East split up it's basketball/football schools from it's basketball only schools. If they do, does the basketball only conference go and add Xavier, Butler, and some private A10 schools to their new conference? Does the football league add UCF, Houston, maybe BYU too it's merger with the Big XII leftovers. Those to me are the compelling stories. Everything else is pretty simple if you step away and think about it.
September 20th, 2011 at 2:52 PM ^
Biggest loser of all this shuffling? Not Baylor or Iowa State... but Georgetown and Villanova.
Look at what's left of their basketball conference -- no Cuse, no Huskies, no Pitt. They have G'Town, St. John's, Villanova, Prov, DePaul, Marquette, S'Hall. (The 8th b-ball-only was ND, they won't be around for this basketball-only conference). That's not much of a conference, they lost half of their big teams.
It does seem, the basketball-only Big East needs to reconstitute. Maybe they all merge with the Colonial -- which a few years ago would have been nonsensical, but in the past 5 years the Colonial has had 2 teams in the Final Four. That would be like a 16-team (or so) basketball conference.
September 20th, 2011 at 3:27 PM ^
Are you kidding? I think Georgetown and Villanova are secretly throwing a GTFO party. Sure, the Big East won't be around to rival the ACC as the supreme basketball conference any more, but the name still packs a punch in basketball circles, and the basketball wing of the Big East can finally run things their way instead of being pushed around by the football schools. You think they wanted TCU or USF in the conference? Hell no. This is their big opportunity to remake the conference the way they want, and there are several different paths they can travel down. Most of them probably have the words "Xavier" or "Butler" in them.
September 20th, 2011 at 9:05 PM ^
...and that's how they'd want it.
Dayton, GW, Richmond, St. Bona, Fordham, St. Joe's, Xavier, Valpo and Butler to go with the 7 left over.
That's a VERY good 16 team basketball conference. None play D1 football. All are private, most if not all, are catholic.
If I'm the Big East commish, I'm taking that league over...I'm telling the football school to join the Big XII or ACC and GTFO.
September 20th, 2011 at 9:45 PM ^
I could even see them going 100% Catholic. The eight basketball-only schools already are.
September 20th, 2011 at 3:37 PM ^
I believe that Texas and ND have to be the first options for most people. I wouldn't mind seeing TCU come to the B1G. I believe they are members of the AAU and they would bring a Texas market albeit not UT market but I would like to see them here. I don't think it would happen but that would make for an interesting competitive addition. They may even be an easy poach if BIg East crumbles. Thoughts?
September 20th, 2011 at 3:57 PM ^
Not in the AAU. Doesn't fit the Big Ten's academic profile (small religious school without a major research profile). In a big market, but one where they are probably the 4th most followed "local" school in the Metroplex (after UT, OU, and A&M, maybe even Tech). They didn't sell out all their games last year, in their best year ever.
September 20th, 2011 at 4:06 PM ^
TCU is not a good idea, IMO. They're the fourth or fifth most popular school in Texas, small private and religious*, and their academics aren't any good. They're not an AAU member and are in the lowest tier of research expendatures along with (this is the total list of schools spending under $40,000,000 per year on research in BCS AQ conferences) Texas Tech, Baylor, BC, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama and Syracuse.
*obviously all three apply to ND as well, but they have a national following for their athletics and the money to compete academically if they choose to.
September 20th, 2011 at 9:07 PM ^
TCU, are you kidding me?
What kind of money does that bring the Big Ten?
What fanbase is that?
You think they're going to show TCU and Iowa in Texas over Texas and ANYONE?
Texas' spring game gets more coverage the TCU gets all year until they're in the BCS.