Well wouldn't that be something.
landing spot. will be interesting to see how he does.
Well wouldn't that be something.
I would "upvote" you if I had enough points.
He should go # 1. He was better than everyone in college basketball this year.
If only NBA teams drafted that way. A lot of the time they draft off of pure athleticism and potential. Kwame Brown says Hi.
Off collegiate success. Derrick Williams says hi
I was speaking on terms of number 1 picks. Brown was number 1, Williams was picked third.
I actually drunkenly read that as Deron Williams. I have a drinking problem?
and posting on this site.
and sometimes you are drafting 2nd in a draft with only 1 top flight prospect (Kyrie) .... The rest of the top 10, Enes Kanter, Tristan Thompson, Jonas Valanciunas, Jan Vesely, Bismack Biyombo, Bandon Knight, Kemba Walker and Jimmer Freddette say Hi.
Drafting 2nd in this years draft and drafting 2nd in next years draft (Wiggins and Parker) are completely different scenarios.
Counter argument: Dwight Howard (over Emeka okafur)
Exactly though. Drafted on potential and turned out to be the superior player. The nba draft is treated a lot more as a gamble as opposed to the NFL where body of work is taken more seriously.
This is due to the NFL requiring three years of college whereas the NBA only recently started requiring one. This means for basketball, there pretty much ISN'T a body of work available to be considered. If the NFL didn't require those college years, you don't think NFL teams would draft someone like Clowney straight out of high school and just stash him on the bench for a couple years while developing him?
In my opinion the NFL has it right. Bump up the NBA rule to require two years minimum in college, maybe even three. It increases the quality of the college game, and gives NBA teams more to go off of instead of essentially just gambling.
But but but but these kids get treated like garbage, what with their third-world free tuition, premium housing, woodgrain locker rooms, first choice of classes and schedule, money for nothing, chicks for free, etc. etc. etc.
Pay them now, because they are just getting raped by the college system. God it must have sucked to have been Trey Burke or Mitch McGary this past year...
/BIG FUCKING SARCASM FOR YOU IDIOTS THAT DONT GET IT.
Obviously anyone who understands that player's are essentially forced into giving up a huge financial opportunity is cleary an idiot I guess. Burke and McGary both would have chosen to be here this year regardless of if they could have entered the draft, a guy like Shabazz Mouhamed didn't.
Shabazz would have gone top 3 last year, now he's struggling to stay in the top 10 AND lost a year of salary in the millions of dollars. But I'm sure he's really happy he got his one year of tuition at UCLA.
The one and done rule is a joke, the system should be closer to baseball's. Let guys enter straight out of highschool, or require two years of college.
Shabazz had the choice to get paid to play in Europe. Granted, he wouldn't have been paid as high as the NBA, but paid nonetheless.
I can understand the argument for football players, as there really is no other alternative in terms of making serious money for playing. Basketball players do have options though.
I actually agree the 1 and done rule is dumb, but is it not the NBA's choice to enact a rule like that?
The problem is guys who go to Europe don't get a ton of playing time because the system there is so different and teams are so comitted to playing guys with experience. Brandon Jennings didn't get to play a ton of minutes in Italy, teams didn't get much of a chance to really evaluate him. He lucked out in getting drafted relatively high still, but it's a HUGE risk as a prospect to go over to Europe.
For most guys, thanks to the one and done rule, the only real option is to go to college if they want to actually be evaluated properly. And yes it's the NBA rule, I'm not blaming the NCAA, I'm blaming the NBA.
At the end of the day, these elite players come to school and the value they receive in return is far, far below what they would if they were allowed to enter the draft. A lot of guys do get a great deal, the guys who get scholarships while they don't really produce money for the University, and those are the guys who should be thankful. But let's not act like we're doing Shabazz or Nerlens Noel or whomever any favors by forcing them to go to school for one or two or three years.
I think players who have no interest in pretending to be college students should be allowed to enter the draft straight out of high school. If the NBA doesn't think they're ready, why not let them spend their "1 and done" year with the Developmental League affiliate team of whichever team drafts them?
Even the very best schoolboys play against inconsistent competition and require redshirt years before competing against less inconsistent competition in college while their bodies keep growing. The NFL has no developmental league and limited roster sizes, so stashing a guy on the practice squad means he gets pro training but no game experience or structured practice with the starters - even Manning would have hard time being worthwhile under those conditions.
The guys jumping to the NBA aren't ready either - Sebastian Telfair anyone? - but they have a better chance because their sport in high school is closer to the pro version than football.
But a number of high schoolers are good enough to go make a NBA roster, a lot more than could go make a NFL roster. Sure, its a risk for NBA teams, but they're more than willing to take that risk, as it pays off often enough, so let them.
j.j reddick says he should have been a #1 pick then
The NBA's track record of drafting high schoolers is actually pretty impressive. Most of them have worked out.
There have been 42 high school players taken in the history of the NBA Draft.
Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O'Neal, Tracy McGrady, Tyson Chandler, Amar'e Stoudamire, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and Josh Smith would all qualify as "stars."
That list also includes the 2 biggest superstars in the NBA today (Kobe and LeBron).
Darryl Dawkins, Al Harrington, DeShawn Stevenson, Travis Outlaw, Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson,Rashard Lewis, J.R. Smith, Dorell Wright, Monta Ellis, C.J. Miles, Martell Webster, Amir Johnson, Louis Williams, and Andray Blatche have all been quality players to varying degrees, from borderline stars (Jefferson, Monta and J.R.) to solid rotation players (Stevenson, Harrington and Perkins).
So that is 25 of the 42.
Then there are guys like Darius Miles, and Shaun Livingston who were solid players whose careers were adversely impacted by injury.
Kwame, Eddy Curry, Desanga Diop, Sebastian Telfair, and Gerald Green might all be considered busts, but they've managed to hold down roster spots for a long time. I mean, people make fun of Kwame, but you're not a scrub if you get fairly consistent minutes in the NBA for over a decade. Curry might be a bust, but he averaged 19.5ppg and 7.0rpg in a single season and reeled off 5 or 6 quality years.
So depending on how you look at it, that's 32 of the 42 that have had some modicum of NBA success. Whether it be as a superstar, star, borderline star, starter, solid roation player, or just having a lengthy career.
We also can't forget guys like Moses Malone, and Brandon Jennings, who essentially came out of high school to play professionally and have been successful (Moses to the ABA, Jennings to Europe).
All in all there are probably more all star appearances between the high schoolers than there were high schoolers drafted. Kobe, KG, Moses, and LeBron alone have 51 combined all star appearances and have made a combined 39 All-NBA teams.
They've also won 4 of the last 9 (soon to be 5 of the last 10) MVP trophies.
TL;DR - The list of guys drafted out of high school who haven't made it in the NBA is much, much shorter than the list of guys who have.
Your treatise is the most interesting and informative Cool Story Bro I have ever read.
Don't lump me in with "let's hope he stays." I don't hope that at all. I hope he goes to the NBA and gets paid lots and lots of money and has a long and successful career. Trey is by far my favorite student-athlete ever, and I wish nothing but the best for him in the pros.
So if he stays, you'd actually be disappointed?
I'd be disappointed for him, because it would be a foolish decision. That kid has won literally every possible thing except a national championship. There's nothing left for him to do here.
Bingo. This is as high as Trey's stock is going to get.
You are looking at it only in terms of money and accomplishments. If he leaves, he can never again in his life be a college basketball player. He can go back and take classes later on, but he can never suit up for Michigan again. That's not a small consideration.
I understand why a lot of athletes go pro, but I will never criticize one for staying in school. You can't get your college experience back once it's gone. The pros pay well, but they're a business.
I think you're over valuing what being a college basketball player means to him compared to being an NBA player. Look, Burke said when he decided to come back fro his sophomore year that he wanted to compete for a national championship this year and he did just that. The only way Burke comes back is if his love for college has over shadowed his dream to become an NBA player and/or he's hell bent on winning a national title.
Actually, I have no idea how much it means to him. I'm not predicting he'll stay in school. I'm just saying that the opportunity cost of never again being a college athlete is a significant factor to consider. If a player leaves early and his rookie year doesn't go well, he can't ask for a do-over and decide to be BMOC again.
And every year you're in college is a year you won't play in the NBA. Let's not be naive, most basketball players consider the second to be the ultimate.
He knows exactly what it means. He's got Beilein and a bunch of other people advising him. Some people love college, and Trey might think it's worth it to continue to be the king of Ann Arbor for another year. He might really want a national championship. It might be a missed opportunity, but calling it a "foolish decision" is pretty shortsighted.
... Pro aspirations and financial factors outweighed other considerations. They obviously did not for Taylor Lewan, and perhaps they don't for Burke ... But that's not the way I'm betting. And that's great - if the NBA is what he wants most of all, he should grab it with both hands.
It's not about how good he was this year or deserving it. It's how good they think you could be in the NBA. If what you did in college mattered, Christian Laettner wouldn't be a punchline.
you do realize that Laettner had a 13 year NBA career, in which he made lots of money? And as for his success, he was an All star reserve in 1996. He may not have been a superstar, but he is no punchline
You do realize that Shaquille O'Neal and Alonzo Mourning were drafted before him even though he was the "best" college player for a reason? Sure he had a long and serviceable career but he did not come close to having the career the two picked before him did.
Shaq was a better college player than Laettner.
Laettner's teams were better and he was marketed more, but Shaq's sophomore year he averaged 27.6ppg on 62.8% shooting, 14.5rpg and 5bpg. His junior year he averaged 24.1 ppg on 61.5% shooting, 14rpg, and 5.23bpg. Shaq was the AP player of the year in 91, and should have won it over Laettner in 92.
Laettner never even came close to putting up those kinds of numbers. His senior year he averaged 21.5ppg on 57.5% shooting, 7.5rpg, and .91bpg.
Shaq was also 3 years younger than Laettner, despite being just one class behind him.
"... he was marketed more ..."
Truer words have never been said. The focus groups at ESPN, CBS, et al. obviously *loved* that guy. Why else would we have to see that @%#$ing shot of his every year for twenty years or so? There are at least a handful of other shots just as impressive and meaningful, but they weren't made by someone from America's College Basketball Team. Think I'm crazy? Look here (at the Duke map):
To be fair, the 1991-92 Duke team was one of the greatest of all-time. That team was ranked #1 wire to wire, went to the Final Four for the fourth straight year, and won its second straight national championship (the first repeat since Wooden's UCLA teams). And that game against Kentucky was a classic. That went back and forth in overtime in the Elite Eight before Laettner ended it with that shot.
As the best player on that team, of course he was going to get a ton of hype. But even so, the NBA scouts correctly recognized that Shaq and Mourning were better players.
and that's it...
Just don't follow his business path.
If what you did in college mattered, Christian Laettner wouldn't be a punchline.
I wouldn't call Laettner a punchline (he had a pretty decent NBA career) but anyway, Shaq and Mourning put up bigger numbers than he did in college. Compare their stats in 1991-92 with his.
Shaq averaged 24 ppg, 14 rpg and 5.2 blocks.
Mourning averaged 21 ppg, 11 rpg and 5 bpg.
Laettner averaged 21.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg and 0.9 blocks.
They were better in both college and the pros than he was. They just didn't have as much talent around them.
Damn, I didn't see that you beat me to this, but yeah, the idea that Laettner was a better college player than Shaq or Zo is incredibly false. He played on better teams and was marketed much more heavily (hmmm....I wonder why?) though.
I have to respond to this one, too, since it's also on-target. You wrote:
"I wonder why."
Focus groups ... focus groups.
Marcus Smart is going to be the 1st PG taken, with Trey right behind him. Carter-Williams will be third, I think.
That's what many people think, but it's far from guaranteed.
I hope he stays because I care more about Michigan basketball than the NBA. As long as Beilein isn't pleading for him to come back and he just decides to come back on his own, I'll be ecstatic.
Part of being a good college coach is caring about the future success of your talented players (that can go pro). And part of doing that is recognizing when your players need to make the leap.
I would actually be disappointed in Beilein if he guilted/ pleaded with Burke to come back (which he obviously wouldnt do).
A good coach would acutally "pick up the phone and make the call" to the draft advisory board (to see where the player would be drafted at), and recommend the leap if the player is ready for the next level. I can see Beilein doing that.
Nice honest answer. This is really the driving force behind the stay/leave arguments for most if not all players.
Some will say that height will be a big factor in not being drafted as high, but he had great games with Oladipo guarding him and Lorenzo Brown of NC State who's 6-5. I'm not sure what other teams had tall PGs that we played.
No one's questioning his offense... However, he might have trouble guarding some of the bigger pointguards in the NBA that will be able to either post him up or shoot over him.
Apparently, he really wants a national chapionship so we'll see if he comes back or goes. I won't be disappointed if he goes, but he didn't win everything. He didn't win a NC.
Best player we've had in a long time. Maybe ever. But no, didn't win everything.
Runner-up is not a Burke failure. It is a team effort. He could play 2 more years and not win a NC.
If it is something he wants to accomplish, good for him. But, I would be surprised if he came back for another year just for that.
He is going to the NBA. I would be absolutely shocked if he stayed. He deserves everything he gets and frankly unless he was dead set on staying 2 more years to get a degree, it would be stupid for him to stay. Even then, his signing bonus would be much, much more than he'd probably make in 20 years with his degree.
Dude is gone - he did us well and he deserves to be in the league. It helps is tremendously if he goes high and succeeds.
If RABACK is willing to make a prediction, that pretty much settles it, right?
I didn't think they got signing bonuses as rookies. If I remember right there is a rookie pay scale, with something like a $2.5 million annual gap between the first and tenth pick. Your point remains though, it would take a long time to make that kind of money in the pedestrian world. If you go in the first round you are looking at close to $2 million for two years, before the team option and then the player option kicks in.
Just using common sense - and I certainly wouldn't thump my chest if I predicted correctly that Trey was going to the league. It's not like I'm going out on a limb.
As far as signing bonuses are concerned - admittedly I don't know much about rookie NBA contracts, or NBA contracts in general. But I DO know that NBA first rounders get paid a lot of money, waay more than 99 percent of those who graduate with a UofM degree and have years and years of tenure and experience in their field.
These days a bachelors degree is worth about as much as the paper it's printed on (maybe a stretch, but not a huge one) and I seriously doubt Trey's degree would be in a specialized field with high demand and pay (no disrespect to him, just using my common sense.)
Unless Alro Steel saw something in Trey that they absolutely loved and wanted to make him a super well paid employee right of the bat, he wouldn't be able make a small fraction of what he would in the league.
That, and that whole getting paid millions to play basketball and realize your childhood dream thing.
If he is projected number 1...not only should he go pro. But I'd want him to go pro too.
Looks good for the program.
Unselfishly, I'd like to see him stick around to improve his draft status.
I see what you did there lol (while noticing others are downvoting?)
You've cemented your status as a legend around here. There's literally nothing more you can do to improve your stock unless somehow you plan to average 30 ppg and 15 apg next year
I'm happy for Burke and all that (if he should actually go #1) but I've never quite understood the arguement that it's somehow "good for the program" to lose it's best players to the NBA before they are required to leave.
I know I'm old but isnt it....i dunno...kinda BETTER for the program when good players stay and play for the program?
Maybe I'm just being old-fashioned. FWIW my mom used the same arguement to try and get me to eat parsnips. I hate parsnips and no, they are not good for me either.
It's the old one in the hand, two in the bush philosophy. Sure, we lose a guaranteed star, but the hope is that future elite players see Beilein is developing NBA talent, so they, in turn, decide they want to come to Michigan. Obviously nobody WANTS Burke to leave, but the hope is that a wining culture gets established.
Burke returning is certainly good for the program next year. However, Burke being drafted very high in the draft (and subsequently playing well in the NBA is good for the program for a long time).
There are a handful of things coaches and programs use to recruit top players (which is how you maintain success as a program). One of those is education, which we've always had. One of those is success on the court, which we had before Beilein, and after this year we've certainly had it with him as well. Another thing is putting guys into the NBA, and the higher in the draft the better. Before Trey, Beilein hadn't gotten an M player drafted in the first round. If Burke can get drafted really high, that's another box we can check.
Sure, he could come back and still get drafted high, but stocks fall all the time. If he can strike while the iron is hot, it can be a big accomplishment for the program.
Beilein isn't recruiting one and dones unless their dream is playing here. He said so himself and I doubt that will change regardless of how many players we put in the draft. Oklahoma had Blake Griffin and Texas had Kevin Durant but you don't see five stars flocking to those programs. We're never going to be Duke, Kentucky, Indiana, UCLA, UNC, Kansas, ect and we're not going to win a national championship by piling up five star talent. The players that are going to get us there are the 4 star and 3 star players that outperform their ranking once they get to Ann Arbor and are put in a position to succeed. (like Burke...)
I think only one if the programs you mentioned actively recruits 1 and dones. I have trouble believing Beilein wouldn't take a McLemore.
All of them have or have had one and dones at some point.
Kentucky - lol
Duke - Jabari Parker, Irving, Rivers
UCLA - Muhammad
UNC - Marvin Williams, Brandan Wright
Kansas - Josh Selby, Xavier Henry
Indiana - Eric Gordon(I remember they even hired his HS coach to steal him from Illinois....)
But that doesn't mean that all of those programs specifically target the likely one-and-done guys. Only Kentucky really does. Kansas this year had a core of seniors to go with McLemore, for instance.
We could possibly have two one-and-dones this year, you know. Would that change your evaluation of Beilein's program?
The possible one and dones in our program blew up long after Beilein sent them offers. The guys on that list were 5 stars since they were juniors and most clearly weren't going to last more than one year in college.... I'm not even listing the guys that ended up staying because they didn't live up to expectations in college but were considered one and dones before the season started.
That's true about GRIII, but not McGary. He was always considered a stud and possible one-and-done. His recruiting ranking actually went down after his commitment, when he had a relatively unproductive year at the prep school.
You are misremembering things. When we offered Mcgary he wasn't even in the top 100. The best offer he held at the time was from Indiana, but our coaches had been talking to him long before that because of Zack Novak.
He went from no hype, to being #3(IIRC) to being a 4 star ranked in the top 40. We offered him just before he cracked the top 100 at 90ish.
If we're comparing Burke to hall of fame caliber players at his position, then CP3 would be a much better comprison. Their stats are frighteningly similar, not to mention their size.
But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you.
He should go. The only way to top this year would be for the team to win the NC while he wins all the player of the year awards again. That's a very difficult task. Not to mention that this year's draft class isn't very good.
Even on a rookie contract for a few years, he would make more money than he would over 20-30 years with his degree. After saying all that, I still selfishly hope he stays.
If Trey goes #1, his guaranteed salary for his first two years combined under the slot is $8,766,700. If he has a decent agent, the number will go up to 120%, or $10,520,040, minus his agent's cut.
This would be great for Trey, and great for the program. Players want to go where they can be developed, have a chance to fulfill their NBA dreams, but not be lied to along the way. And if they find out they aren't good enough, they want a great degree to fall back on, and the support to help them get that degree.
I would be willing to bet that JB has already told him it's been great coaching him and watching him play the last two years, and has already thanked him for everything he's done for the program.
I think #3-#9 in this draft is entirely subjective, could definitely see Burke go as high as 3.
#1 and #2 should be locked up with Noel and McLemore though.
It's possible. I can't think of anyone off the top of my head that I would say is better or more explosive than him coming out this year. I think there are 5-10 players sitting at the top that are all pretty interchangeable as far as NBA potential goes, so he could just ask likely be picked 1-5 as anyone else.
Trey Burke is a stud. He is a great ball handler and an incredible leader on the court. The only thing that may hold him back is his size.
But I don't see it. #5-10.