ESPN: Rittenberg/Bennett both pick MSU

Submitted by Soulfire21 on

Because, what else is there to talk about?

Brian Bennett: Denard Robinson's mistakes finally catch up to him against a nasty Michigan State defense, which comes up with three turnovers. Kirk Cousins and B.J. Cunningham hook up early and often, and the Spartans make it four Bunyans in a row. ... Michigan State 24, Michigan 20

Adam Rittenberg: Four Bunyans? Sounds nasty. I wrestled with this one all week, as there are so many interesting subplots, all of which could go by the wayside because it's a rivalry game. Although Michigan is undefeated, I think this game has greater significance for Michigan State. The Spartans do enough to slow down Robinson and get enough from running backs Le'Veon Bell and Edwin Baker. Michigan State rallies in the fourth quarter and wins on a last-minute field goal. ... Michigan State 23, Michigan 21

Links? I has them.

Bennett correctly (IMO) identifies turnovers as an issue, and while he suggests the Spartans get 3, he seems to have neglected Michigan's impressive ability to generate turnovers through the first 6 games.

Rittenberg pulls out the "we've seen this one before" meme and goes with the same story from last year:  MSU was the first team to slow down Robinson in 2010, therefore, MSU will be the first team to slow down Robinson in 2011.

Seems to have no love for Toussaint or Smith in there.

Seems to have forgotten that our offensive playbook still has much to be revealed.

BlockM

October 13th, 2011 at 2:36 PM ^

Honestly, I think MSU in a close one is a highly appropriate pick for this game. Hope they're wrong, and I never quite understand the arguments posed by media members for why games will turn out the way they say they will, but I think MSU has a slight edge.

Another observation: they've gotta be pulling these scores out of their asses, right? No way in hell does Michigan get two field goals.

MGlobules

October 13th, 2011 at 3:02 PM ^

trying to read the tea leaves through the many analyses here all week, the pundit observations often seem quite random, or badly off-key. Like you, I can see why--forced to put out some copy--many choose MSU (they're at home for starters, and not that much separates the two squads on paper).

I could see us quietly outgunning them by several Ds, just proving we've got more talent; us losing our composure and getting knocked around, coughing up the ball; or a typical nail-biter in which the fact that one team wins/one loses is more a by-product of luck, the game clock, officials, or bounces than anything else. (Hey, that's OFTEN the case in football, after all the analysis is over.) Damned tough one to call. 

bronxblue

October 13th, 2011 at 5:05 PM ^

I think MSU has the advantage at home, but I never like when people expect turnovers from a player - while INTs are less random than fumbles, you can't really say "I expect player X to turn the ball over a good deal" with any statistical relevance.  I expect MSU to come out and play the RB power side until UM stops them, but this isn't last year's MSU team - it is a weak unit up front, and one not really designed to catch up if they are down 10-14 points.  Cunningham will probably have a big game, but a lack of a coherent running attack should force MSU into more passing downs than they like, and Cousins is going to be hounded all day.  

JT4104

October 13th, 2011 at 2:40 PM ^

I dont mind them picking MSU..but Rittenberg living on the last 2 yrs is really dumb. This team isn't winning games by outscoring people this year.

You cant compare this to last year at all, were winning with ball control and a defense actually making stops on 3rd down/creating turnovers.

The comparisons to last year are about as dumb as anyone really thinking sparty has the #1 D in the country.

However, go into that crap hole of east lansing get a win and shut these people up and watch Sparty go on multiple suicide alerts and their fanbase realize that they are back to being an absolute nobody.

justingoblue

October 13th, 2011 at 2:40 PM ^

Another point (that I think is important, but what the hell do I know) is the huge disparity between our points scored/allowed and Sparty's. MSU is +89 and we're +153.

In addition, their defense is only letting up 2.3ppg less than we are (MSU's offense is at a 10ppg deficit), and they've played much, much weaker competition.

Soulfire21

October 13th, 2011 at 2:43 PM ^

This.

Sure, we probably won't hang high 30s on them, but their defensive stats are a bit inflated and the one (potentially) good team they played was ND, which ended in a 13-31 loss.

I like Michigan in this game.

Well, I always like Michigan, but I have no problem picking Michigan to win.  We are too subdued by the previous 3 years, we stand a good chance.  MSU has only beaten us once in East Lansing in a decade and that game went into OT (2009, MSU 26, UM 20).

NOLA Blue

October 13th, 2011 at 3:23 PM ^

MSU has only played two teams that bring 4-star/5-star talent to the field:  ND and OSU.  They put up 20 total points through 8 quarters of play.  Michigan put up 28 in a single quarter.

And as for cupcakes, WMU will put more O-lineman into the NFL from this year's line than MSU will, and WMU had an NFL QB playing behind that line.  Kovacs, Ryan, Martin, Roh and Van Bergen will take care of business on Saturday.  Hell, Heininger and Big Will are going to be busting through as well.  There will be somewhere between 9 and 37 sacks on Saturday.

ESPN analysts are idiots.  (Except our beloved native-son, Tom VH!)  Michigan wins B1G.

justingoblue

October 13th, 2011 at 2:54 PM ^

They'd still be at least twenty behind because of their ND derp game (even conceding they'd win 58-0, which is unlikely). And if you gave them our SOS, I don't think it'd be anywhere close. MSU's resume has a single victory against BCS schools. Michigan's has either six or seven, depending on whether Army counts as a 1-A Independent.

Protoman20xx

October 13th, 2011 at 2:42 PM ^

Alright I'll give those two MSU has good defense.....BUT IMO they have played a bs schedule.  tsio o-line let them through to the qb and when they played ND the got owned.  I just don't think that MSU is as strong as the "experts" think.  MSU will come out fired up but when the game settles down i think you will see Michigan move the ball on offense and do a good job of bending but not breakin on defense.

Callahan

October 13th, 2011 at 2:43 PM ^

Response 1) I guess they should just cancel the game then.

Response 2) Please someone give me prediction analysis deeper than 'turnovers and special teams will decide this one" or "whoever has the ball last wins."

uminks

October 13th, 2011 at 2:44 PM ^

I think Bennett said ND would win rather easily!

We'll see who wants this game more! I would think 3 consecutive losses are enough and Michigan will want a win! B1G title game on the line. Hoke will have them motivated!

We will win for sure in 2012!

AMazinBlue

October 13th, 2011 at 2:45 PM ^

beating a real live football team, I am going to continue to believe that Michigan's offense is better than MSU's defense.

It may not be a high-scoring game, but MSU's defense is getting a lot of mileage out of holding FAU, CMU OSU and Youngstown State to next to nothing.  Each of those team's offenses are truly nothing to begin with. 

If MSU's defense stops our offense I will admit I was wrong, but to this point there is no evidence that convinces me that Sparty is a top rated defense except stats against incredibly inferior competition.

UM 34

MSU17

MGoNukeE

October 13th, 2011 at 2:48 PM ^

Michigan doesn't think so. MSU's defense keeps Michigan off the scoreboard early, but MSU doesn't have the firepower to keep up in the end.

21-17 Michigan.

Waveman

October 13th, 2011 at 2:49 PM ^

I think that if we score 20 to 21 points, we'll likely loose this game.  MSU will get a couple of short fields and put up about 24.  That said, I think we score 28 or 31 and win this one.