ESPN puts MBB on bubble watch
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Michigan [18-7 (8-4), RPI: 60, SOS: 99] The Wolverines got back to winning after last week's back-to-back blowouts -- both at home -- to Indiana and Michigan State. Which is good. Less good? After trailing 42-28 at halftime, Minnesota and its 240-ish RPI and 12 straight losses trailed Michigan by just two with 89 seconds to play. Phew. Having dodged that proverbial bullet, John Beilein will turn to Saturday, when Purdue comes to Ann Arbor. Win or lose, it would be nice to see UM put up a fight. Particularly on its own floor.
This isn't going to come as a shock to pretty much anyone. There are major gaps/problems right now. I still feel strongly that we'll get in, but it's definitely going to be close.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:37 AM ^
Would require a total collapse in last 7 games to miss.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^
Depends what happens (obviously). If we win today, Northwestern, and one other game I think we'll be fine assuming we don't lose a first round Big Ten Tornament game. The nice thing about our remaining schedule is our SOS will come down some. Now we just need to Win the Game.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:47 AM ^
Today isn't must win, but man it could be huge. I don't see how we CAN win against this match-up nightmare, but we bested Maryland somehow, so crazy shit happens. Going to Ohio State is a low confidence game, as I think they've picked it up and are playing decent basketball now, Iowa at home no, at Maryland is no, and at Wisconsin is pretty low confidence...so today seems to be one of the better opportunities to notch another good win...or get killed on home court again.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:49 AM ^
I think you just refuted your opening statement. With games at OSU, Wisky and Maryland - and a home game vs Iowa - as all being low confidence, today is absolutely a must win. The only game I feel decent about is home vs. Northwestern. If we lose today - and the other 4 expected losses, and we only beat Northwestern, we'd be 19-12 with an RPI probably in the 80s headed to the Big Ten tournament. We need to win today and probably one other of the expected loss games (plus Northwestern) to feel decent about our chances of dancing.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:59 AM ^
You're right...and in the back of my mind I know today is almost a must win.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:57 AM ^
This isn't totally true. We need two more wins to feel good about getting in the tournament. If we beat Purdue today, then beat NW, we'd be set.
Winning three more times would make me feel a lot better than just "decent" about our chances of dancing.
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February 13th, 2016 at 11:37 AM ^
I don't think any two wins will do it. A win over Purdue + 1 more, probably, but a win over OSU and NW, probably not. Need another top 25 RPI victory to feel great about it.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:40 AM ^
I have a hard time thinking that 20 wins, a 10-8 Big Ten record, and wins over MD and TX would keep us out. I think you're overrating the rest of the bubble a little bit. I suppose we'd maybe have to win our first round big ten tournament game at that point too, but it would be against a team we've already beaten (probably twice).
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February 13th, 2016 at 12:14 PM ^
If we head into the postseason sitting on 20 wins and a 10-8 B1G record, you'd best believe we need at least one win in the Big Ten tournament. I don't think I'd be comfortable with a 10-8 conference record and a one-and-done in the conference tourney. That's trouble.
February 13th, 2016 at 12:30 PM ^
Maybe, but right now we have 2 wins over top 100 RPI teams (actually both over top 25 teams). Wisky would give us another top 50-ish (they are 54), and OSU another top 100. That would be 4 top 100 wins.
Washington is one spot behind us in RPI but already has 7 top 100 wins. I know a lot more goes into it than that one metric, but Wisconsin and Purdue are the 2 wins that would help out the most.
Also, I think you're counting that one win the DII school when you are saying 20? I thought the committee doesn't count those wins? Can anyone confirm?
February 13th, 2016 at 12:19 PM ^
I think we have a good shot at beating Iowa in the final home game.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:15 AM ^
I don't think we've yet reached must-win territory when we're talking about a game against a ranked opponent. We need to win two or three more games and certainly Northwestern is one. The other 1-2 wins just have to come from somewhere. But certainly, today would help a ton.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:03 AM ^
Purdue routinely goes on long droughts on offense. They'll go on one against us today. We need to take advantage of it if we expect to win.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:47 AM ^
A team with Michigan's resources should never miss the tournament? I don't understand why mediocrity in MBB is acceptable when a bad season or two in football has everyone shopping for pitchforks and torches.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:49 AM ^
I'm with you.
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February 13th, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
With their resources they should be a top 5 B1G team every year. I'll give them a bit of a break losing Spike and Caris this year but should still be able to easily make the tourney.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:00 AM ^
Easily make the tournament missing two of your top 6?
Nothing is easy.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:06 AM ^
Yeah maybe in football you can patch over injuries but in bball it's difficult to play all your weird guys
February 13th, 2016 at 10:51 AM ^
Mobile double post
February 13th, 2016 at 10:54 AM ^
Agreed.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:54 AM ^
It happens. Even Kentucky misses the tournament now and then.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^
Tom Izzo would like a moment of your time. I hate the guy as he cries incessantly, but teams do make it year in and year out. Beilein has done well at times and done bad at others. I'm not shopping for pitchforks, but it's creeping it's way up my wish list.
The real question is though what is acceptable. I'm of the opinion a successful season isn't just making it to the tourney, but not getting bounced in the first round. An NIT trip or championship is considered a loss. I guess my expectations reflect my football expectations and maybe I'm in need of an adjustment.
February 13th, 2016 at 12:40 PM ^
As much as Izzo bitches about injuries, he's actually had fantastic luck over the years. He's had the occasional player out for a few weeks but has never had a season like we had last year, losing both starting guards for the season.
We've now had four season-ending injuries in the past three seasons (McGary in '13-14, LeVert/Walton last year, Albrecht this year) and it could possibly be five depending on LeVert's status. Meanwhile I'm hard-pressed to think of the last time Izzo lost someone for the year.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:07 AM ^
But not 3 times in 8 years (potentially 4 in 9)
February 13th, 2016 at 11:18 AM ^
To be fair, I think two of his three misses were completely excusable. Beilein's first year was a massive system overhaul, and last year we lost three early entries to the draft plus our top two players to injury. That's not to say I don't have my issues with Beilein (system, recruiting, etc), but I don't think it's as bad as it seems.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:39 AM ^
Don't mind Stringer. He doesn't like JB and his analysis either completely lacks context or he spins it in a glass half empty kind of way.
I'm still waiting to pass judgement on Beilein. I think they get into the tourney and maybe make the second round. If Walton and Irvin stick around (they should) then Michigan will probably be the team next year that everyone is bitching that they aren't this year. Everyone is selective in their critique: The bottom line is that there has been improvement, both at the team and individual level, but for many it isn't good or fast enough.
I will say that the staff have to figure out a defense and stick with it. It seems like running a 2-3 would be less complicated then whatever the hell that man to man is. Playing not to foul and playing off your man make sense until you still get beat off the dribble and the help defense is terrible at best. Another thing I hate is how thwy have the big men hedge the pick and roll. If you want to prevent easy baskets against other good teams you might want to have your big hedge a bit more conservatively and give up mid range jumpers instead of layups/dunks.
With that said about the defense, I think the positives have outweighed the negatives and next year should be the run we're hoping for (until one of our top players gets hurt and people say it isn't an excuse or wouldn't matter).
February 13th, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^
Nice to hear Patrick Beilein's thoughts on the matter
February 13th, 2016 at 10:58 AM ^
Where was this talk during the Ellerbe and Amaker years? The only reason things like this get said is because of Beilein's success.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:01 AM ^
I would wager a lot of people felt that way, though Football wasn't in the dumps quite yet so it seemed to go ignored, however wrongful. But as an outsider I was baffled that Michigan had made a habit of not being a tourney team.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:14 AM ^
Ummm no. The Ellerbe/Amaker years were horrible with many people complaining. Stop using that terrible decade as a comparison for Belein. We absolutely should expect better.
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February 13th, 2016 at 11:12 AM ^
Unfortunately our resources are not quite sufficient enough to prevent serious injuries from occurring. With Caris and Spike in the lineup, I don't think missing the tournament is even a possibility.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^
Missed the tournament?
I'd be fine with missing it during a coaching transition, or maybe once or twice per decade, but no more than that.
Admittedly, I'm not a huge BB fan and my perceptions are colored by the fact that I first became aware of BB in the late 80's, when both the Pistons and Michigan were fielding great teams.
February 13th, 2016 at 12:17 PM ^
I can't think of a time Izzo lost his starting backcourt to season-ending injury. Has it happened?
It happened to us last year and this year hasn't been much luckier, with a starter and 6th man out.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:48 AM ^
But as long as they don't get blown out and win the games they should win the rest of they way we should be fine. Will be interesting to see how much they try to penetrate and finish at the rim vs. purdue, I think that's the key to the game. Get purdue in foul trouble early and force them to respect the drive so outside shooters can get open looks. If it's stand around and hoist threes early we are in trouble.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^
There's not too many of those "games they should win" left on the schedule
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February 13th, 2016 at 10:49 AM ^
After yelling at the TV during the MSU game last Saturday - in a bar, in public, in front of strangers and my children, and entirely too loudly - I have happily checked out of bball for the season. I certainly still hope we make the tournament, but I have created emotional backstops in case we don't.
February 13th, 2016 at 10:53 AM ^
Misleading headline. Would be worse if we were not on it
February 13th, 2016 at 11:07 AM ^
No, they also have locks for each conference.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:03 AM ^
Also...don't we technically only have 17 wins, as far as the NCAA Tournament is concerned?!
February 13th, 2016 at 11:20 AM ^
yes, Northern Michigan does not count
February 13th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^
Right. All the more reason we need this one I supppose, as we truly do need 3 more wins plus the B10 Tourney game.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^
getting in the tournament might become quite an adventure, Poseidon.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:47 AM ^
If we lose today, tomorrow will be a bad morning after. All our plans will be capsized.
February 13th, 2016 at 12:18 PM ^
had an easier time squeezing out of there than Michigan will have squeezing into the tournament unless they turn things upside down until help (Caris) comes to the rescue.
With the way we've been playing lately, I've been screaming "YOURE GOING THE WRONG WAY, DAMN IT!" a lot while watching this team. I hope Beilein's got Maureen McGovern on the turntable for inspiration today.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:15 AM ^
game but its pretty darn near close to one..we have to win one out of Purdue/Iowa to another good quality win..I am not optomistic otherwise wed prob need to win 4 of the 3 of the other 6..Just dont see this happening...If we can somehow pull off the upset of Purdue I will feel a Whole lot better but we are in a slump against any team thats reaosnably good
February 13th, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^
6 of our 7 losses are to teams that are (or were until this week) in the top 25 (except uconn). We beat Maryland, our top player is out for a significant stretch. I think we're one of the top 64 teams in basketball, it's just that we played some good teams. Also, there's one extra spot without #13 Louisville.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:21 AM ^
and SMU too, right? or was that last season
February 13th, 2016 at 11:22 AM ^
It's this season.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:33 AM ^
Due to auto bids, you need to be well above 64 or 68 ranking to make it. Would agree we're on the bubble. Positive is that if we finish in top 4 we would have some big win but we'd likely open with someone like Purdue in third round. If we don't make top 4 at least it gives us an easier game in second round.
February 13th, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^
Not sure they can win more than one game rest of the way.
On a related note, chances that Jalen Rose would be considered as a coaching candidate to replace JB?