ESPN post-NSD Way-Too-Early Top 25
It feels like a lifetime away but here is ESPN's take on the Top 25 post-NSD yesterday. They did a 'Way Too Early' Top 25 right after the bowls so they basically just updated that based on on recruiting classes panned out.
Obviously Alabama is #1 because why not. I didn't realize that they play FSU (#2 on list) the first game of the year in 2017. Note that Florida (M's first opponent in 2017) does not make the list.
In terms of the Big Ten:
Team (Way-Too-Early #1, Way-Too-Early post-NSD)
OSU (#6, #4)
PSU ((#4, #5)
Wisky (#9, #12)
M (#12, #14)
MSU (NR, NR)*
*Character is not quantifiable thus ESPN was not able to fully get their minds around how good State is going to be next year.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
For all the talk about Penn State's deep threat offense, I'm hoping we surprise them in Happy Valley with some deep threats of our own and that our newly stocked defense once again dismantles their offense.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:42 AM ^
I'm particularly excited about Speight's progression. I don't know why some are expecting Peters to take over. Speight showed all the intangibles needed and flashed great potential. He's only going to get better under Harbaugh's wing.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
I won't even try to predict who will start only to say that since Speight was the starter last year, he's likely the starter this year. That said, I do believe competition will produce a better quality starter and we have four great candidates. I feel confident we will have an improved QB in 2017.
February 2nd, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
...Speight to be the de facto starter this Fall.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:10 AM ^
Yeah, but what about the physical intangibles? He could have flashed some more of those.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:46 AM ^
I agree. I think he still has plenty of upside, but also believe his ceiling is limited (as in, career back-up in the NFL if he maxes out).
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^
There's a lot of career NFL back-ups that were phenomenal college QB's their senior year. I'm more focused on the "how great he can be his senior year". Wilton made some great strides throughout the year and now having a 2nd year and being more comfortable, sky is the limit as far as what he can help the team achieve.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:52 AM ^
but we also gotta remember that he was operating the offense without the aid of a running game in our toughest contests.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^
Especially since Harbaugh's offense is going to be predicated on "being able to make all the throws".
In 2015, with Rudock, our offense didn't become great until Rudock could hit the deep ball.
February 2nd, 2017 at 3:28 PM ^
+1 for the insight, now I'm hungry for a Blizzard.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:40 AM ^
I don't think there are a lot of people that EXPECT Peters to take over... but there are many who would LIKE for that to happen.
Count me as one of them. Next year is going to be a "down" year already. I'd love to see Peters get a year of starts under his belt so he can really be ready for 2018.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^
That sounds like we are throwing away a year just because we don't think we have a chance to win it all. This isn't the NFL, you don't get a better draft pick by throwing the young guys out there and losing. What if you were to put Peters in and he wasn't ready? Then you wreck his confidence.
February 2nd, 2017 at 2:42 PM ^
I wasn't clear:
I don't want it GIVEN to Peters just so he gets a year of experience.
Like you, I want Peters to earn the job AND get that year of experience. We both know that under Jim Harbaugh, no one will be given anything. I guess I thought that was a given and didn't need to be explained.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^
I don't want it to happen just because it gives Peters a year of starts under his belt. I "want" it to happen because I think Peters winning the job indicates a higher ceiling for next year's QB play than if Speight wins the job (whiche he could conceivably do with little improvement).
February 2nd, 2017 at 2:43 PM ^
I agree.
I wasn't making the argument for giving the job to Peters. Under Harbaugh you and I both know by now that nothing is given, it needs to be earned.
My fault for not making that explicit in my post.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^
Same reason people wanted that bum Tom Brady to lose snaps so Drew Henson could take over.
(This was a real sentitment for those too young to remember.)
February 2nd, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^
Michigan Brady was not NFL Brady though. Henson was also phenomenally gifted- more than any QB on our current roster.
yes, in hindsight it looks foolish to want Henson, but at the time the gap between them was not so big.
February 2nd, 2017 at 3:12 PM ^
You sure about that?
Brady at Michigan: 61.9% completion pct, 7.5 YPA, 2.6:1 TD to INT ratio as a senior, 2.6 INT per 100 passes (2.0 INT per 100 passes his senior season)
Brady in NFL: 63.8% completion pct, 7.5 YPA, 3:1 TD to INT ratio, 1.8 INT per 100 passes
Brady's TD:INT ratio for his career at Michigan was 1.7:1 due to a bad 14 TD, 10 INT junior season, but the QB he was his final season was pretty much the QB he's been for his entire NFL career.
People forget how good Brady was at Michigan. He was a clear notch better than Henson for the two seasons (98-99) they shared snaps. Henson was barely completing more than half of his throws.
February 2nd, 2017 at 3:41 PM ^
Tom Brady was excellent at Michigan. This is not revisionist history. This has nothing to do with the Patriots. There are actually people who preferred Brady to Henson for the fact that the offense moved under Brady and it didn't under Henson.
This is identical to the O'Korn crowd. I despise both that were too starstruck by their ability to throw a football over them mountains to realize who was better at actually playing quarterback.
And then, against all odds, I find myself kind of in the Peters camp. I don't want to brush aside Speight, but I want Peters to be too good to hold back. I think there's a pretty firm ceiling for Wilton Speight. I could definitely be wrong. I have to remind myself that he has two years of eligibility left. But I do have that Henson/O'Korn-ish "Ohmigosh what if he's the best ever!" feeling right now about Peters. I feel dirty.
February 2nd, 2017 at 7:17 PM ^
until the Illinois game, when Henson had just two series that went nowhere. In fairness, Brady hadn't played that much better than Henson up to that point, excluding the 4th quarter against MSU the week before when Sparty was on cruise control.
February 2nd, 2017 at 2:38 PM ^
I can't believe a post counting on the intangibles got that much love here.
Were they the pick six, pick in osu's red zone, the goal line fumble in The Game; the absolute fuckfest that was the Iowa game; or the unwatchable first 2 and half quarters of the bowl game?
He had a few video game numbers against total garbage competition, a few "didn't completely fuck us" games against better competition, and 3 games where he hurt us way more than helped. Granted, in the last 2 of those he was hurt to an undetermined level.
In Harbaugh I trust, but if Speight is a hands down winner of the job for next year then Peters isn't all that or Speight finally pulled his head out and made leaps and bounds for improvements. Either way I'll be a little less than bullish on our O if Speight is never challenged for the spot.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
Awfully optimistic. We've lost almost everyone, while their offense has totally caught fire. I think we have a chance to win, but expecting the game to look similar to this past season's game (when they were pulling guys off the street to play linebacker) is a recipe for disappointment.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^
It's February, mang. Adjusting to reality is what August is for.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:34 PM ^
Well I'm a TRUE Michigan fan, adjusting to reality is what "just wait till next year" is for.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:53 AM ^
Hmmmmm. Were you really that impressed with their "chuck-and-duck" offense in the Rose Bowl? Sure, it worked for them and kept them close, but it seems to be a high-risk proposition to win throughout an entire season.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:59 AM ^
I was more impressed with their chuck and duck offense than....whatever it was Michigan was trying to do.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:36 AM ^
Chuck a duck and duck.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:17 AM ^
It wasn't bad, mostly because it was more like a "chuck-and-give-the-rock-to-Barkley-in-space" offense, and it seemed to work pretty well for the last half of the season.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:43 AM ^
I actually have always thought that kind of offense should be used more often in college football. I am a believer in that young people make mistakes often when under pressure. So if I am a coach I blitz like crazy on defense and I throw the ball deep a lot on offense when possible. Risk/reward. Your guy catches it, it's a possible touchdown. Pass interference, you get a new set of downs and you're closer to the endzone. Interception, not much different than a mediocre to good punt. On the other hand, if you depend on more plays of a few yards running the ball or more passes to catch, the more chances there are for error closer to your own end zone.
Chuck it. Send that bitch down the field to DPJ, Black, Collins, McDoom, etc. Take your pick. Send em all. Bet one will be open.
February 2nd, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^
Just because it sounds cheezy/video game-ish, doesn't mean it wouldn't actually work.
Lessoning your chance for negatives (repeatition/long drive errors + near field turnovers) while maximizing your potential for reward (touchdown, PI, far field INT/i.e. Punt) is the markings of a sound strategy.
February 2nd, 2017 at 2:25 PM ^
Notre Dame tried it a bit during those Clausen years IIRC. they would have max pro and just send WRS deep. if nothing was open, QB just threw it away
February 2nd, 2017 at 1:16 PM ^
His five factors --- Explosiveness is the highest rated of the five factors at 35%. Higher than factors like "efficiency" (25%) or "finishing drives." (15%)
The NFL remains more about efficiency and red-zone scoring. But the college game is different: risk/reward offenses tend to succeed fairly well. The numbers agree with your thoughts.
February 2nd, 2017 at 4:18 PM ^
I got the itch, so here goes some conceptual numbers just for fun:
Odds of successfully gaining 4 yards on a given play = let's say 90%. (This may be high, but it gives the "slow but steady" strategy a big benefit of the doubt.)
Based on the above, the odds of gaining a first down in 3 plays would be 90%^3 = 72.9%.
Odds of successfully gaining 40 yards or more on a given play = let's say 40%. (This may seem a tad high, but remember it should include some baked in benefit of a PI call. While the PI penalty itself is not 40 yards in college, it is beneficial enough that it should be favorably incorporated into this percentage slightly. Hence "rounding up" to 40% odds.)
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So, assuming these odds, let's consider a strategy of systematically driving down the field, 4 yards per play, starting at your own 25 yard line:
75 yards needed / 10 yards per first down = 7.5 first downs need.
72.9% odds of getting a first down to the 7.5 power = 9.3% <- This is the odds of scoring a TD on a drive if you were solely driving slow but steady.
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Switching gears, let's consider a strategy of "EFF IT, I'M GOING LONG" all the time:
75 yards needed / 40 yards per big play = 2 big plays needed.
40% odds of hitting a big play (40 yards or more) to the second power = 16% <- This is the odds of scording a TD on a drive if you were bombing it every play. EDIT: And actually, this is just the floor value, because this is assuming you got CONSECUTIVE big plays and ignores the fact that a) you get a third down try and b) that you get 3 fresh downs after the first big play. So, yeah, this number should actually be much higher!
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So, based on my completely infallible assumptions (lol), your odds of scoring a TD are much higher if you just bomb it.
Umm, yeah, so "EFF IT, I'M GOING LONG".
February 2nd, 2017 at 6:56 PM ^
Bored at work ... so simulated the effects of Interceptions (drive obviously ends) and incomplete-incomplete-incomplete prior to 2 first downs (drive ends due to a punt/FG attempt). A use of Markov Chains from probability!
If the chance of a 40-yard-play is 40%, and the chance of an interception is 10% (B1G teams as a whole threw intereceptions ~2.8% of the time in 2016) ------ this offensive strategy results in a TD 49% of the time.
If chance of a completion is 40%, chance of an interception is 5% ---> 55% chance of TD.
If chance of a completion is 30%, chance of an interception is 5% ---> 39% chance of TD.
If chance of a completion is 30%, chance of an interception is 10% ---> 35% chance of TD.
If chance of a completion is 20%, chance of an interception is 5% ---> 21% chance of TD.
If chance of a completion is 20%, chance of an interception is 10% ---> 19% chance of TD.
If chance of a completion is 10%, chance of an interception is 5% ---> 7% chance of TD.
If chance of a completion is 10%, chance of an interception is 10% ---> 6% chance of TD.
I completely ignored sacks here, given that the loss on a sack is rather negligable vs. the gain on a completion.
As I said, I was bored :-)
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
People keep saying that like it mattered. Street linebackers wouldn't have gotten them any more scoreboard points, so I'm still confident. Harbaugh is light years ahead of Franklin so I can see us curb stomping them again next year
February 2nd, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^
Beilein you and I finally agree. It will be at least a 3 TD game again in Happy Valley.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:49 AM ^
I think their offense clicks when Barkley is running the ball effectively and their QB is scrambling around chucking those deep balls. They more or less seem to be based around luck and big plays. It works for them, but if you can shut down one of those two guys they don't have enough to make up for it. Penn St. doesn't scare me one bit and they don't play defense well.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:51 AM ^
Their defense is dogshit though
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
PSU's defense (14th best in America) had a higher ranking in 2016 than their offense (18th best).
I won't disagree that PSU's offense may be over-rated going into 2017. But likely under-appreciated on the other side of the ball. The advanced metrics didn't think the defense was terrible in 2017, and PSU will have 8 returning starters, with 3 5th-year Senior starters on the DL.
February 2nd, 2017 at 3:21 PM ^
The PSU that played Michigan was much different later in the year
People just remember the defense that faced Michigan that was missing two starting LBs, lost a third to a targeting call, and then saw a RS FR walkon replacement go out with a knee injury.
Those same people will also argue "we totally would have beaten FSU with Jabrill Peppers." Funny how injuries can change a defense and a game.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:53 AM ^
I think they're a fake. Not terrible, but not top 5. Probably not even top 10. They're going to end up being a ticket for some other fake team to get into the conversation after they beat a "top five PSU" team.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:09 AM ^
Much like Notre Dame and Michigan State just this last season. It's why Top 25 polls before October are truly worthless.
February 2nd, 2017 at 10:57 AM ^
don't think there is going to be any "surprise" about it. Harbaugh resides in Franklin's head. I fully expect to go into Happy Valley and pummel Penn State, as is the norm around here.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:14 AM ^
(I want to put this caveat up front: This responds to ijohnb but in my experience ijohnb is not at all guilty of what I am about to address)
Optimism is all well and good when we are looking at sports, but there is a point where it can become problematic, and this is particularly a problem with low-information fans: When fans believe Michigan "should" destroy some opponent or another, and then Michigan doesn't because football is a challenging and complicated game, the excessive optimism becomes a problem. It causes fans who had such irrational beliefs to adopt various stab-in-the-back theories for why Michigan lost.
That's where low-info posters flood onto message boards like this one and insist that Michigan absolutely would have won if only their coach wasn't an ignoramus coward, or the QB wasn't a hopeless imbecile, or that the Heisman Finalist LB/DB hybrid wasn't totally overrated. Because, in their mind, Michigan really deserves to blow out this or that team, there must be one and only one problem that is stabbing the team in the back and keeping it from achieving its true destiny.
So when I see low-point posters crow about how Michigan is going to totally waste PSU in Happy Valley next year, nevermind that PSU returns way more talent and that Michigan hasn't blown out a good team on the road since the Carr era, I expect that when an entirely understandable struggle occurs (win or lose) people like that will appear on boards like this and call for the firing of Tim Drevno or Don Brown or the defenestration of Wilton Speight or Ian Bunting or something. Totally convinced that they know the One True Solution.
And this may be a problem this coming year with a young, patchwork offensive line and an extraordinarily young defense. I'd hate for a guy like Lavert Hill or Cesar Ruiz to become a scapegoat in the eyes of low-information fans for not being able, in their second and first years in the program respectively, to play at a level of guys like Jourdain Lewis or Steve Hutchinson. But excessive optimism is prone to causing people to make such evaluations.
Even those here who are trashing PSU, (not low-info guys in this thread as far as I can tell), let's not get so carried away that we fail to recognize that our team will have some growing pains next year.
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:27 AM ^
I don't know how some of you guys argue with a guy with 20M MGoPoints.
To that end, I am cosigning with you. It's a UM blog - there is a lot of optimism as always.
PSU is 10/21 - that should give some time for UM to improve. UM has not won big games on the road in a very long time. If Harbaugh can institute that mental toughness than even a senior laden team failed to produce, in this group - I will be impressed. We couldn't do it vs a much less explosive Iowa team with our best team in a long time and certainly best defensive unit since 97.
When people look at these rankings, and chest beat they do seem to forget the state of our OL. I'd refer to them about 10 posts down on the MGoBoard "depth chart". Any comptent DL faced is going to be scary next year. PSU usually has some pretty good defensive lineman. We are going to have to score a good amount of points in Happy Valley; Speight/Peters will need to be upright to do so...
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^
Harbaugh has never lost in Happy Valley (haha). Our ONLY fear is that the B1G sends anti officials to manage the game. I believe it was something like 17 - 2 in penalties last time we were at Penn State. Even this year Penn State caught every break against ohio ... maybe a payback from 2 years ago, but whatever.
Mark it down ... Michigan will beat Penn State on 10/21.
Go Blue!
February 2nd, 2017 at 11:47 AM ^
Word, King. Agree 100%.
February 2nd, 2017 at 12:19 PM ^
hear you. I was not really serious. I actually do think we will beat them, but Penn State is going to be good next year and that will be a really tough game on the road. I just really like making fun of Penn State and am not ready to give it up yet.