The College Football analysists at ESPN has Michigan in the Capital One Bowl now after last weekend's loss to Nebraska and Nebraska in the Rose Bowl. I actually don't mind this bowl because of our recent history in it and surprisingly they have us pitted in a 2008 rematch against you guess it, the Florida Gators. Should Michigan not make the B10 championship but go on to win out and play in this bowl game I really would actually love a rematch with Florida and to beat the Gators yet again. But in all seriousness we want the Rose Bowl. Sadly it's going to mean Nebraska choking in one or two of their upcoming games. Two of the biggest that stand out for them are againt MSU this weekend in EL and against Iowa. If Nebraska can choke away either the MSU or Iowa game or both in best case scenario and we beat Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern and Ohio St then it's obvious the B10 championship appearance goes to us. Even with a loss against Ohio St we would still go. Thoughts?
ESPN Has Michigan in the Capital One Bowl after this past weekend
I'll be on my honeymoon in Florida during the Rose Bowl and Capital One Bowl anyway and my fiancee and I have already agreed that if Michigan plays in a bowl in Florida we're going. So for me, either Michigan goes to the Rose and I'll be happy or Michigan goes to the Capital One and I'll get to go (so I'll also be happy).
So I'm good either way. But yeah, we want to be champs.
The Capital One can take any team within two games of any other team in the conference (by overall record). So if the standings looked like:
- Nebraska (11-2) CCG, Rose
- Wisconsin (9-4) CCG, Loser
- Northwestern (8-4)
- Michigan (7-5)
- Michigan State (6-6)
the Capital One could take Wisconsin, Northwestern or Michigan, but not MSU. I remember hearing something about a CCG participant being guaranteed at least the Outback Bowl, but I can't find it with a quick search.
Big Ten Conference
The Big Ten Conference has eight bowl tie-ins.
#1 Bowl Championship Series. The winner of the Big Ten Championship Game gains an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, preferentially the Rose Bowl.
#2 The Capital One Bowl receives the second choice from the Big Ten, but must choose from remaining teams with the best overall record, or within one win of the best overall record. Starting in 2011, it may choose to take the runner up of the Big Ten Championship Game should its record be better than the league champion.
#3 The Outback Bowl receives the third choice of Big Ten teams.
#4 The Gator Bowl receives the fourth choice of Big Ten teams.
#5 The Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl receives the fifth choice of Big Ten teams
#6 The Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas receives the sixth choice of Big Ten teams.
#7 The TicketCity Bowl receives the seventh choice from the Big Ten.
#8 The Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl will take the eighth choice from the Big Ten; if no remaining teams are available, the bowl will choose a Sun Belt team.
for the Capital One. I wonder which is right...
I was always under the impression it was 2 games as well.
That said, I bet we're within 1 game of whoever else is an option.
I remember this rule coming into effect vividly - it came after SU was screwed out of the Gator Bowl for a Virginia Tech team that had two more losses, and which SU beat.
my reservation for Pasadena but Orlando isnt bad either.
I would say "lock that up", but clearly you are on top of it.
Penn State has a good chance to beat Nebraska IMO
I'm assuming Michigan wins out, and Nebraska loses to PSU. Nebraska would be 6-2 in the conference and we would be 7-1. Overall conference record is first, so we'd go to Indy.
Now, if you want to assume we lose to Ohio [more likely] then ideally Nebraska will drop one to PSU and one of MSU/Iowa [really, Nebraska just needs two losses somehow]. That puts them at 5-3 in the conference and us at 6-2, again, overall conference record is first so we'd go to Indy.
You're definitely right, dropping games to MSU and Iowa gives us a lot of breathing room. I don't know how likely that is, but it's certainly possible. I sort of feel like Nebraska losing to MSU and PSU is more likely than Nebraska losing to Iowa, but given the state of the conference who knows?
There would have to be a 3 way tie in the division for it to come down to a tiebreaker (assuming it's Michigan, Nebraska and one other team). If Michigan and Nebraska are tied, Nebraska would have the head to head tiebreaker.
I realize that Iowa looks bad, heck, Iowa IS bad, but they will be playing at home on Senior Day when they take on Nebraska. While I certainly wouldn't call Iowa a favorite in that game, I think there is a slight chance (call it 25%) that Iowa upsets Nebraska in Iowa City.
It doesn't matter whether Nebraska loses to a Leaders and Legends division foe, it's the same outcome. Nebraska loses any of their remaining games and Michigan wins out, Michigan goes to BTCG due to having a better overall conference record.
I think you meant to write "Citrus Bowl."
That Florida defense would control us, but ours would do the same. It'd probably be a good game.
As long as we don't stop Jeff Driscol we'd get two or three defensive touchdowns.
i'd be thrilled with an orlando bowl game. no /s. not as thrilled as i would with pasadena but orlando is a good bowl and we'd play someone we hate regardless of which sec team gets the invite. outside of our ultimate goal, this is not a bad consolation prize.
Rose bowl or bust. Assuming Oregon goes to the national championship I like our chances against the pact-12 #2 (Oregon State or USC) vs. our chances against (Florida or Georgia). I mean seriously, I feel like I am on valium when I try and contemplate those prospects with a straight face.
Wouldn't necessarily face a pac12 team if Oregon is in MNC
Yeah - in fact I'd say it's pretty likely that we don't see a Pac-12 team if Oregon goes to the championship game. USC and Oregon State each have 2 losses, and neither of them have played Oregon yet. Also, neither of them have the schedule that would have them ranked high with 3 losses, so it's possible both are outside the top-14.
Considering the Big 12 #2 and SEC #2 are very likely to get bids plus ND, it will be a battle between Pac-12 #2, ACC #2 (Clemson) and a mid-major like Boise State for the last BCS bowl spot.
Oregon State only has one loss right now, but your point is still valid. They can easily drop games against Stanford and Oregon
Goblueram has Michigan in the Rose Bowl after getting their final regular season loss out of the way last weekend.
Fuck that. I want Michigan to play near my house. Yes, this is selfish, but I want it.
Do want as well. But the last two Rose Bowls I have been to were not good experiences.
Not a bad point. At least we wouldn't be playing SC this time (most likely).
You'd rather Michigan play against Oregon? Not me, brother. USC is a better matchup, IMO.
I am assuming Oregon is in the national championship. That might not happen, but I still think it will. Of the four top teams, they have the best shot at staying undefeated.
I want to see UM in the conference championship game, everything after that I leave to the polls
I want to see UM win the conference championship game, then go to the Rose Bowl.
Everyone is just assuming we'll win the B1G-CG, nothing is a given with our offense, with our without Denard.
Is very lofty too.
As of now, a loss at Ohio looks very probable. Combine that with Iowa (who seems to beat us every year no matter what), a decent 7-2 Northwestern Squad, and Minnesota coming off their best outing all year, none of the games are really gimmies at this point. I like our chances to win the next 3, but really we've got to score some touchdowns.
If Denard stays healthy, there's no reason why we shouldn't win out fairly handily. Playing in the Horseshoe will be very difficult, but Our D > Their D
Are you six years old? 40-13-4.
As long as Denard doesn't miss any extended time we shouldn't lose our next 3 games. Worse case is 7-5 with a trip to an eh bowl played in December. Best case is 10-3 and the Rose.
Take the middle and 9-3 with the Capital One Bowl. It seems like the most likely outcome.
No matter how you get there a 10 win season is a success even if we don't win the Big 10. Though we'd have to beat an SEC team in the Capital One.
is probably the most likely outcome. That could still land us in Indy.
Now, the way I would prefer it (if we are in the Citrus Bowl) is for Alabama and UF to be the SEC teams picked for the BCS games, LSU in the Cotton Bowl and us playing Georgia. Sure, Georgia's good, but I'd rather play them than any of the other SEC bigs (although we might do OK against South Carolina too).
I stopped reading ESPN a long time ago. The discussion boards are absurd and the B1G bloggers are useless.
I swear all they look at are final scores.
Even Lunardi thinks these are premature and of litte value oher than to fire up fan bases and generate page hits.
Considering that Nebraska still had to play MSU and Iowa and had trouble putting away a team with an injured QB at home tells me the season is definitely not over.
If we ended up in the Capital One Bowl:
UF: unless its like '08 where UF comes in and is underprepared because they felt snubbed by the BCS, we could pull out an upset. Otherwise, I don't see Denard fooling their defense.
Georgia: depends on which Georgia team shows up, the one that played UF this past week or the one that barely beat Kentucky last week.
South Carolina: if Lewan can contain Clowney, I think we can absolutely beat SC, especially now that Lattimore is out for the year.
LSU: this ones a tossup in my book. In my opinion, they're the MSU of the SEC: solid defense, meh offense.
Florida wasn't underprepared in '08 because they "felt snubbed" by the BCS. By the time Selection Day came around they had 3 losses. They weren't getting a BCS bid
Yeah, I doubt even Florida fans felt they got snubbed. They were a 3 loss team. In the final BCS standings (pre-bowl) LSU was #2 and Georgia was #5. I doubt even UF fans felt they should have gotten the second SEC bid over Georgia.
Georgia, Florida, South Carolina or LSU
is this better than getting raped by Oregon?
The team still needs to have their eyes on Pasadena because one slip up from Nebraska and if we can get the offense going again and find a way to win out we'll be right there
I rearranged my Thailand Christmas plans to include a return on the 1st for the Rose Bowl... Capital One Bowl, not so much.
assuming Denard recovers. Lots of football to be played.