ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, Wk. 6

Submitted by Ecky Pting on

The updated FPI team efficiency ratings have been posted and Michigan, overall, seizes the #2 position,while OSU dropped from #2 to #6 overall. The U-M splits are offense, #9 (up from #18); defense, #3 (up 5 spots from #8); and special teams inches back up to #12 from #15.

Of U-M's 2016 opponents, Colorado at #12 still remains the highest rated team U-M will have faced before meeting OSU in November. Wisconsin is two spots behind Colorado at #14. The already vanquished UCF is currently rated above 6 of Michigan's other opponents this season, including Sparty, which alas, is not saying as much as it once was. Maryland remains the second most challenging opponent remaining on Michigan's schedule after OSU.

Here's the selectively abbreviated synopsis of the ratings. Click the link above to see the whole list &/or sort by category:

RK TEAM OFF DEF S/T O'ALL
1 Louisville, ACC 94.9 84.2 36.0 94.3
2 Michigan, Big Ten 80.3 94.7 70.2 94.1
3 Washington, Pac-12 87.4 87.3 71.4 93.8
4 Alabama, SEC 69.2 97.8 59.2 93.5
5 Clemson, ACC 77.3 91.7 44.8 90.1
6 OSU, Big Ten 72.2 92.5 58.5 90.0
7 Boise State, MW 85.5 79.6 41.3 86.9
8 Texas A&M, SEC 78.0 78.9 63.3 85.1
9 Miami, ACC 73.6 80.3 67.0 84.6
10 Houston, American 73.5 81.4 49.8 81.6
12 Colorado, Pac-12 76.0 80.6 35.0 81.0
14 Wisconsin, Big Ten 49.3 92.1 62.3 80.1
20 Maryland, Big Ten 62.3 70.7 64.3 73.3
42 Iowa, Big Ten 49.2 62.2 67.2 61.2
47 UCF, American 34.3 73.4 69.8 59.1
52 Penn State, Big Ten 54.1 59.3 48.5 57.9
73 Indiana, Big Ten 41.2 58.9 39.6 47.7
78 Michigan St, Big Ten 43.3 46.9 58.7 45.5
93 Hawai'i, MW 41.5 43.7 46.9 40.4
97 Illinois, Big Ten 35.2 37.3 54.7 34.6
115 Rutgers, Big Ten 19.1 35.5 53.8 23.3

 

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NittanyFan

October 10th, 2016 at 2:14 AM ^

I do understand why.  The algorithms see "VT really shut down UNC on Saturday; that was a UNC offense which had been lighting up scoreboards against pretty good competition."

Of course, the UNC/VT game was played in an on-going tropical storm.  The algorithms are pretty good, but extreme situations like that (similiar for NCSU/Notre Dame) are pretty hard to control for.

Joined: 12/04/2012

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Michwolverinefreak

October 10th, 2016 at 4:03 AM ^

But I want to see Harbaugh start wearing more hats. Not like, switching into different hats every game... I want him to stack hats. Imagine: a Tigers, Wings, Lions, and Pistons hat all facing different directions on his head, with the Michigan hat on top facing forward. 

He should do that against Ohio State. Meyer won't be able to take his eyes off him and coach. The crowd won't pay attention to the game. Barrett's throws would automatically veer towards the Michigan bench as he takes his eyes off his targets. This strategy could trump "X's and O's" any day of the week.

Joined: 02/04/2015

MGoPoints: 2843

bacon

October 10th, 2016 at 4:23 AM ^

They down-weight snaps in garbage time based on win probably. Michigan was 96% to win at Rutgers from the kick. So basically the game Rutgers doesn't count? We surpassed this threshold with 3 min left in the first quarter vs Penn St, and the opening kicks vs UCF and Hawaii.

Joined: 01/04/2009

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LSAClassOf2000

October 10th, 2016 at 7:16 AM ^

I think you can see that downweighting in Michigan's offensive efficiency rating in particular, at least in ESPN's formula. The hit we take for running away with a few games early explains - to some extent - why the offensive rating is only about 80 despite Michigan having the #4 or #5 scoring offense by points per game. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130561

DavidP814

October 10th, 2016 at 7:11 AM ^

FPI, ESPN's main computer rating, has Michigan first.  If Team Efficiencies includes pre-game winning probabilities in its determination of what it considers "garbage time", that would produce some weird/counterintuitive/wrong results--like, say, rating Maryland #20 and Penn State #53.

Joined: 07/13/2012

MGoPoints: 5228

ppudge

October 10th, 2016 at 7:30 AM ^

Maryland just got pummeled by the first team with a pulse they faced (Penn State, who as we know has a very faint pulse), yet are rated significantly above them. Colorado is decent, but the only team of significance they have beaten is an Oregon team that just gave up 70 to Washington. Wisconsin is clearly superior to them, especially defensively. Methinks this system puts too much stock in points scored against inferior foes.

Joined: 10/19/2008

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