ESPN Cooks up a CFP "Doomsday Scenario" that includes Michigan

Submitted by YoungGeezy on

I couldn't help but salivate at the thought of this scenario playing out (hopefully in our favor).

Doomed if: Michigan wins the Big Ten. It's not anywhere near over in the Big Ten, which still has three undefeated teams and the possibility of a three-way tie in the East Division. If Ohio State beats Michigan State -- hardly a far-fetched result -- and Michigan wins out, then there will be a three-way tie between them, with each having lost to one another. In that scenario, it could come down to which team is ranked highest by the selection committee on Dec. 1. Let's say it's Michigan, and the Wolverines knock off an undefeated Iowa team to win the title: The committee would like the Wolverines. But would it like them enough to put a two-loss Big Ten champ in the top four? Probably not if the other Power 5 conferences have produced an undefeated champ or one with one loss.

 

LET'S WIN OUT AND MAKE ALL THE COMMITEE GO CRAZY!

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JamieH

November 4th, 2015 at 12:55 PM ^

We need a freakin' 8 team playoff where EVERY POWER 5 CONFERENCE CHAMP IS INCLUDED.  Then all these "doomsday scenarios" don't even exist.  You just take all the conference champs, add 3 at-large teams based on raking or ratings or whatever, and PLAY BALL. 

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charblue.

November 4th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^

that will only happen if a whole lot of dominoes fall creates a false sense of belief that the likelihood is greater that it will rather than won't happen.

I like the idea of getting better every week and playing to beat your next opponent without the added consequence of what-if's entering the picture. The only way any of this happens is if Michigan doesn't stub its foot the rest of the season and is healthy enough when it plays Ohio State to be in great position to beat the Buckeyes. We shall see what tomorrow brings when  the sun rises on that day.

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uminks

November 4th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^

It would be worse than '73 fiasco if we beat OSU but they got the east title because they were ranked one or two spots higher by the selection committee!

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LSAClassOf2000

November 4th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^

The part about "winning out" inspired me to update my probability matrix since Massey has some new data in there. The estimated chances of Michigan winning all four of the remaining games would sit at 18.1924% right now. On the other hand, the estimated chances of going 3-1, which is more or less what most of us are guessing, I think, sits at 47.2017% at the moment. That's just us, of course, and the direction of other games involvin those remaining teams on our schedule dictate these estimates too. 

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Boner Stabone

November 4th, 2015 at 1:16 PM ^

As we saw last year,  the eye test of the way the teams are playing at the end of the year is the determining factor who is going to be in the playoff.  They will take a 2 loss team over a 1 loss team.  Schedule strength would be in Michigan's favor in that scenerio.  I think they would reward us for playing a tough Out of Conference Schedule.

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Adrian

November 4th, 2015 at 1:32 PM ^

The only issue I see with this scenario if it plays out is that OSU will continue climbing. How are we to make up ground to jump them. Lets say they beat MSU and climb into top 2. Can we make up all those spots and potentially jump them once we beat them. 

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CLord

November 4th, 2015 at 1:33 PM ^

Am I the only one that watched that Minnesota game?  Rudock is going to have to show a massive leap that we all know is highly unlikely for any of this to even be feasible.  We do play well vs OSU though... but I'll stick to reality and keep these dreams in my pants rather than a 100 post thread.

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uminks

November 4th, 2015 at 1:50 PM ^

not to respect our passing game and focus on our running game. It would be nice if Rudock starts hitting our open WR. I'm not sure if he will improve much over his current level. I expect tough games against IU and PSU before we play OSU.  It is possible Michigan will be 8-2 and ranked #10 and OSU will be 10-0 ranked #2 heading into the game. I'm not sure if we will be able to make up the ground on OSU unless we just blow them out at home. Let's say we beat OSU 30-28, then we will probably move up to 5 or 6 and OSU will drop down to 4 or 5. Thus, they will win the B1G east!

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Lie-Cheat-Steal

November 4th, 2015 at 1:37 PM ^

It's poorly worded. If it hadn't been discussed here and on numerous media outlets countless times and I was just going just by the written rules, I would have to read it numerous times to decipher what it is actually saying.  It's not "inaccurate" but its hardly worded in a conclusive manner.

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StephenRKass

November 4th, 2015 at 2:39 PM ^

I like Harbaugh's approach. Focus on:

  • The next game..
  • Improving 1% every. single. day.
  • Things you control, not things you can't. (If worms had machine guns).

So, we focus on Rutgers. And on a few other things:

  • Rudock focuses on passing downfield.
  • WR's focus on running precise routes and getting separation.
  • OL focuses on creating lanes.
  • RB focus on hitting lanes.
  • LB focus on sticking with assignmernts.
  • CB & Safeties focus on not getting beat by double moves.

Do those things, and things will continue to get better and fall into place.

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Leonhall

November 4th, 2015 at 9:26 PM ^

I just don't see us beating OSU unless Rudock figures out how to hit open receivers and/or can take the lid off the top. OSU will do what MSU did, except OSU will have better players. I'm worried about PSU too, mainly since its on the road.



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