ESPN Bowl Projections

Submitted by DISCUSS Man on

these things are stupid and pointless but everyone looks at them.

one guy has Michigan vs. UCLA in the Holiday Bowl. Recruitageddon

the other has Michigan vs Mississippi State in the Music City Bowl at LP Field in Nashville.

honestly, either one don't sound that bad. Holiday Bowl at least has some tradition.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/12816910/bowl-projection…

 

 

DISCUSS

iPhone

May 14th, 2015 at 8:06 PM ^

They're stupid and pointless, yet the OP brings attention to them and gives ESPN their clicks.

EGD

May 14th, 2015 at 8:21 PM ^

My brother-in-law just moved to Nashville, so I'd at least have a free place to stay. I'm hoping for a better season though.

MichiganMAN47

May 14th, 2015 at 8:22 PM ^

The bar is set low enough so that Harbaugh will get some slack this year if he doesn't win the National Title in year 1.

Gr1mlock

May 14th, 2015 at 8:47 PM ^

In the hypothetical scenario where we're not in the Rose or a Playoff bowl, I would be very ok with the Holiday bowl.  But to be fair, that's because I live in San Diego and would have easy justification to go.  

Mr. Yost

May 14th, 2015 at 8:48 PM ^

And then ESPN's CFB Playoff expert Brad Edwards has Michigan playing Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

Not a CFB Playoff bowl, but one of the New Year's Six like MSU played in last year.

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/12304511…

Schedule

We often overreact to perception of a schedule prior to a season, because the truth is that some teams on that schedule won't be as good as we thought, and others will be better. Much also depends on when and where you play teams. We think we know a lot, but we don't know nearly as much about the difficulty of a schedule now as we will by mid-October.

That said, having too many games against good teams (or at least teams we expect to be good) is a major hurdle for potential contenders, especially when most of those are on the road, as we saw with Auburn and Kansas State last season.

I'm more likely to downgrade teams with schedules that seem too difficult than I am to elevate teams with schedules that look easy. As I've heard ESPN "College GameDay" host Rece Davis say for about 15 years: "If you're not good enough, a loss will find you." Not to mention, the selection committee's job is to identify the best teams, and that's not necessarily the ones with the fewest losses.

So after much deliberation -- way more than I should've given to a prediction this far ahead of the season -- here's how I combined the four factors, with a little intuition.

Predicted New Year's Six matchups

Capital One Orange Bowl (national semifinal): Ohio State-USC

By my estimation, the Buckeyes will be the only landslide favorite to win a Power 5 conference this upcoming season, and they are the team I feel most confident in seeing in the playoff. USC meets my criteria for QB play and recruiting, and the Trojans have all starters returning on the offensive line. That's why I'm taking them to win the Pac-12 despite lingering depth issues and a schedule that features hand-wringing road games against Arizona State, Notre Dame and Oregon.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (national semifinal): Auburn-Oklahoma State

This goes back to my early point about the top four at the end of the regular season usually having representatives from outside the preseason top 10. I'm not sure if Auburn will fit that description, but Oklahoma State surely would if it continues the streak of surprise Big 12 champions. The Cowboys need to find consistent QB play, but except for last season, that's rarely been an issue for them under coach Mike Gundy. And they have eight starters back on each side of the ball, plus a schedule that has them hosting TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma in November. Auburn is much like Ohio State was last season in that it changes QBs but does so within a scheme that has allowed first-year starters to have success. Also like the 2014 Buckeyes, the Tigers have made an upgrade at defensive coordinator (Will Muschamp). And this year's road schedule, even though it includes trips to LSU and Texas A&M, is much more manageable than last season's.

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual: Michigan-Oregon

This game is guaranteed to be Big Ten versus Pac-12, and I'm going out on a major limb by picking Michigan to have first-year magic under Jim Harbaugh (remember, Brady Hoke reached the Sugar in his first year). What I like is that Michigan has recruited well in recent years and has the most returning starters in the conference. Harbaugh must find a productive quarterback, but having all starters back on the offensive line helps, as does a schedule that sends Michigan State and Ohio State to Ann Arbor. The season opener at Utah is a huge game for this prediction. On the other side, I'm thinking Oregon loses the Pac-12 title game to USC but doesn't fall from the top 10 without Marcus Mariota. I chose the Ducks over UCLA for this spot, because they have a better track record of replacing productive QBs without too much trouble.

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Tennessee-Baylor

I wanted to pick one more surprise, and this is it. But there are good reasons to like Tennessee, even though the Vols may still be a year away from being a top-10-caliber team. Joshua Dobbs was inserted to the lineup halfway through last season but still managed to finish 21st in Total QBR and looks like a star in the making. Tennessee has 18 returning starters and plenty of experience on both sides of the line. The Vols also are coming off back-to-back top-five recruiting classes. And while no SEC schedule is easy, only the trip to Tuscaloosa looks like a probable loss. Ten wins for this team isn't a stretch. On the other side, Baylor over TCU for this spot was maybe the toughest decision I had to make. In the end, I think TCU's road schedule is more difficult, and Baylor has the experience playing with a target on its back that TCU lacks.

VIZIO Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame-Alabama

I understand if you're rolling your eyes over Notre Dame. This doesn't have anything to do with the bowl win over LSU, aside from the revelation that the Irish should be solid at QB no matter what happens with Everett Golson. They have 19 starters back, and those guys also come from highly rated recruiting classes. The schedule has a few potential pitfalls, but I think Notre Dame could lose twice and still reach a New Year's Six game. And then there's Alabama. Stellar recruiting has loaded the roster enough for me to keep the Tide in a major bowl, but there are too many questions at quarterback and on the offensive line for me to think this team is a national title contender right now.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Georgia Tech-Boise State

Yes, I have only one ACC representative, and it's not Florida State or Clemson. Both those teams have lost half of their starters, and both are inexperienced on the offensive line. They've recruited well enough to prove me wrong, but I'm going with Georgia Tech to win the league. I like the experience on defense, and the returning talent on offense is where it needs to be for a team like this -- at QB and on the O-line. Boise State returns 16 starters, including almost everyone in the trenches. Combine that with recent success, and there's no logical reason to like any other team for the Group of 5 spot. 

evenyoubrutus

May 14th, 2015 at 9:33 PM ^

I don't see the problem with this prediction. Michigan has the talent to have the best o line and the coaching to have the best defense in the Big Ten. There is far more depth to this prediction than "lol5-7" like most of our rivals seem to think. The Big Ten is still kinda shitty so I don't think this is out of reach.

iPhone

May 14th, 2015 at 9:20 PM ^

Easy, friend. MSU and OSU will both be tough, but at least they are both at home. I have a feeling we will slip a game we shouldn't. The first game versus Utah will not be easy either. There are just too many questions at QB that make me think we will get 10+ wins. I hope I am wrong because I am sick of losing football.

B1G_Fan

May 15th, 2015 at 1:51 AM ^

 We played OSU tough the last few years even when most if not all thought thought the games would be blow outs. We played them a lot tougher than we played MSU. I don't see how folks will think that we'll beat MSU and not OSU, we have a better shot at OSU and should beat MSU this year also. I'm not saying we'll go undefeated, I'm sticking with 10-2

WWTSD

May 15th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^

I've seen that alot on here.  That because you guys played OSU tough the last few years when it looked like a blow out you really have a chance now that Harbaugh is coach.

I agree he is a huge upgrade and you guys are about to really turn around, quarterback pending, but I don't know if that logic totally fits.

I completely understand where you are coming from, but having come of age during the 90's and John Coopers horror show against you guys, I'm wondering if maybe Hoke was the anti-Cooper.  Maybe he had the ability to hype his team up enough for this game that they played to their actual abilities. 

Maybe your team actually played up to it's potential against us and we were just better.  I don't think that is farfetched.  Harbaugh may not be able to do much more in regards to The Game this year.

Having said that, I'll still be nervous as hell when we play you guys.  Growing up in the 90's, you guys could field a team of one-legged toddlers, and I'd still be nervous as hell going into the game.

To make matter worse, we play you the week after we play MSU.

Tater

May 15th, 2015 at 2:33 AM ^

Don't think for a second that ultra-competitive Jim Harbaugh doesn't remember that Sparty broke his arm in 1984.  Sparty will no longer have the "intangibles" advantage over Michigan.  I think it's safe to say that Harbaugh wants to beat them even more than they want to beat Michigan.

Perkis-Size Me

May 14th, 2015 at 9:51 PM ^

The Utah game may likely determine how our season goes. If they come out and fall flat on their faces, it may be another 7 win season. If Harbaugh and Co. come roaring out of the gates, beat Utah and get some momentum going, who knows where Michigan ends up.

My guess is Michigan starts the year shaky and loses to someone they shouldn't lose to. But by the end of the year, they start bringing it together, and beat someone they have no business beating.

My guess: 10-3, including a solid NYD bowl win over an SEC team. Michigan heads into next offseason with a ton of momentum for the first time in years.




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

BigHouseBoyz

May 14th, 2015 at 11:00 PM ^

I am not sold on Okie State, but your argument about TCUs schedule compared to Okie State is a difference maker.  If TCU makes it to the playoff I predict Boykin wins the Heisman!  Very possible as OSU QB & Elliott will split some votes.  If TCU doesn't at least compete for the playoff again, Boykin is a possible finalist, but not the winner.

Every team has questions, as Mr Yost has pointed out, and that's why we love college football!!

uminks

May 14th, 2015 at 11:38 PM ^

Though, I wish a lot of Juniors had good coaching to begin with. But I think with Harbaugh as our coach we will win one or two more games than we should. Talent alone,  this team should fair no worse than 7-5 with 8-4 more likely. Add in the Harbaugh factor and we are going to get one or two more wins! I'm betting on 9-3 with 10-2 a possibility. We will play on New Years Day! Will it be the Outback with a 9-3 record or the Rose-bowl with a 10-2 record?

Wolverine 73

May 15th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^

"These things are stupid and pointless."  Yes, they are.  "Everyone looks at them."  No, they don't.  Because they are stupid and pointless.