ESPN Analyst Has Michigan as Preseason #4

Submitted by SpikeFan2016 on

ESPN's Mark Schlabach has Michigan as his preseason #4 team and calls us the "team to beat in the Big Ten."

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14514317/clemson-tigers-alabama-crimson-tide-lead-2016-way-too-early-top-25

Even more interesting, he has neither MSU or OSU in the Top 10 (OSU at #12, MSU at #14). #disrespkt

 

I don't think we will, or should, for that matter, be ranked quite that high, but given that we have the easiest non-conference schedule for a change and how little we lose relative to other Big Ten teams, I do think next year could be a very special year. 

 

234 days until Michigan Football! GO BLUE, BEAT HAWAII!!!

MGoBoard

RED DAWN

January 12th, 2016 at 1:04 AM ^

4. Michigan Wolverines

2015 record: 10-3, 6-2 Big Ten
Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense, 1 special teams

Key losses: C Graham Glasgow, QB Jake Rudock, LB Desmond Morgan, LBJoe Bolden, LB James Ross, FS Jarrod Wilson

Outlook: After a five-win improvement in Jim Harbaugh's first season at his alma mater, the Wolverines might be the team to beat in the Big Ten in 2016. Michigan will bring back almost everybody on offense, although losing quarterback Jake Rudock and center Graham Glasgow is significant. Houston transfer John O'Korn might be the top candidate to replace Rudock. Defensively, Michigan will have to replace its entire linebacker corps, but its defensive line figures to be one of the country's best. New defensive coordinator Don Brown led one of the stingiest defenses in the FBS at Boston College this past season. Michigan plays eight home games this coming season, but three of its road games -- at Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State -- should be tough.

 

 

 

Joined: 11/08/2010

MGoPoints: 4424

ifis

January 12th, 2016 at 1:06 AM ^

Whether one agrees with the ranking or not, it's novel to see an assessment based mostly on projections rather than where teams ended up last year

Joined: 12/07/2011

MGoPoints: 1853

WolverineInCbus

January 12th, 2016 at 1:10 AM ^

Obviously our three road games are tough next year, but the nice thing about the playoff is it will be ok if we lose one of them. If we were to go 11-1 I would assume we still win the division and if we win the BIG title game we still make the playoff. It used to be so frustrating to lose one game and your title hopes were pretty much over.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Joined: 11/26/2012

MGoPoints: 3509

M-Dog

January 12th, 2016 at 1:14 AM ^

That's the beauty of the Playoff . . . we don't have to be #4 in the country, we just need to be #1 in the Big Ten.  

That should get us into the Playoff.  (Sparty did their best to fuck that up, but OSU winning it all last year buys some goodwill for the B1G.)

Once you are in it, anything can happen.

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 256998

SpikeFan2016

January 12th, 2016 at 1:18 AM ^

The problem is that two of our three potential losses are against teams that are also poised to only have one (or zero) losses in the Big Ten and the Big Ten will not get two teams in the playoff unless the conference champ is a dominant 13-0, the other team is 11-1 with a CLOSE loss to the champ, AND there is chaos throughout the other conferences. Very unlikely. 

I think that out of any division in college football, the Big Ten East winner going forward is going to have to be undefeated in the division most years. (This year the PAC 12 North and South winners and the SEC West winner all lost games within their division).

 

So while yes, theoretically, we could lose 1 of those three and still make it, it probably would have to be against Iowa, which is the game I feel like we have the best chance of winning. 

 

Maybe we could still win the Big Ten with a loss to MSU, but no way can that one loss come in Columbus. There is no way I see Ohio State losing to TWO other teams in the Big Ten.

Joined: 04/03/2015

MGoPoints: 6659

alum96

January 12th, 2016 at 2:00 AM ^

I agree with your general premise that go forward there could be a 11-1 team left out of the playoff in the East (see OSU this year).  But I think you give OSU TOO much credit - and I am on who thinks they are recruiting almost as well as Bama and have one of the top 3 coaches in the country.  They will be a damn good team come Nov when they play MSU and UM but they appear to be returning SIX starters.  They will probably be the youngest team in the nation and will be vulnerable early - say Sept thru mid Oct.  I dont care how talented you are out of HS, they dont have 15 Peppers or Rashan Garys out there to just plug and play like Bama does.  Young teams have less margin for error and also tend to play below par on the road.  Meyer had a 9-4 (5-3) team in year 3 at Florida so even the greats have sub 10 wins every so often.

I could see OSU with a chance to lose @Wisc, @MSU, and v UM next year.  Along with what I'd assume to be a near guaranteed loss to Oklahoma unless OK is losing something like 15 starters themselves.  If PSU didnt have such an idiot of a coach that could have also been a road game they could lose in 2016 under normal circumstances.  Who knows - even a plucky Indiana if it can find a QB by early Oct could pull off a stunner.

I am not saying someone like Nebraska or Northwestern will beat OSU next year either but there is at least more than a 5% chance unlike the prior 4 years.

I expect OSU to be back to a death machine in 2017 but they are losing so much in 2016 - esp in the trenches where we see football is won and lost they are not just going to go out and roll everyone.

tl;dr OSU going 9-3 and 6-2 in the conf is probable even if they are going to be at their best by the time MSU and UM hit the schedule.  Young players - even talented ones - do dumb things.  Taylor Lewan as a RS SO was not the same as RS SR, Peppers as a SO was not the same as a FR, Brandon Graham was better as a SR than as a SO, etc.  They are going to have a multitude of RS FR and true SO running around out there next year.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82301

SpikeFan2016

January 12th, 2016 at 2:11 AM ^

I agree with most of this as well, but I still disagree that OSU is going to lose 2 Big Ten games outside of Michigan. 

 

I think OSU will either be 10-2 or 9-3. I think they'll lose to Oklahoma (but that doesn't help us). However, I think there is a 0.1% chance they lose to either Penn State or Nebraska (or any other minor Big Ten team). 

 

Thus, that leaves three somewhat questionable BIG games: Wisconsin, MSU and Michigan.

 

I could see OSU losing to Wisconsin potentially, but I really cannot see them losing to MSU. MSU loses just as much as they do and is bringing in less talented freshman to help. I know the game is in EL, but in that series the home team has lost 5 in a row. 

 

Thus, assuming OSU loses to OU, if we were to lose in Columbus to finish an 11-1 season, we'd need Ohio State to be 9-3 for us to make it to Indy. Really don't think that OSU will be 9-3 WITH a win in The Game. For me, if OSU is able to beat Michigan they will finish at least 10-2 and 10-2 OSU is likely going to Indy over 11-1 Michigan due to one loss being non-conference. That would be devastating and could keep the Big Ten out of the Playoff. 

Joined: 04/03/2015

MGoPoints: 6659

Wolfman

January 12th, 2016 at 2:22 AM ^

We've felt the pain, many times, that OSU felt this season, but  most always it was not of our accord. There were timekeepers, officials not officiating, etc., that caused us to lose in the strangest ways imaginable.  OSU and especially Urb, knows better than anyone, by taking a game off he gave MSU what should have been theirs. They will react just like we did in similar situations, and because MSU has improved dramatically as a program, I cannot predict a string of 5 to 6 losses like we would have adminsitered when they were so-so, I can unequivocally state Urb will be at the top of his game next season and he wiill be armed with a third year qb and some of the best young talent in the nation. 

For a coach that has enjoyed his level of success, this chafes his ass and will until retribution is realized. It is not unlike JH's approcach, realizing M.D. walked off that field with a victory that belonged to him. MSU is going to get a beat down by one new kid on the block and one who has been bullying for awhile. These are safe projections.

This, in no way, is an intended slight toward MSU. It's just that the stars have aligned and so it is written.

Joined: 07/23/2008

MGoPoints: 8259

MI Expat NY

January 12th, 2016 at 10:17 AM ^

Depth is generally a big issue when you replace nearly an entire unit.  It's part of the reason we're worried about LB next year despite the fact that the guys they're replacing didn't perform very well.  Sure we probably will find 2 or 3 guys capable of replacing that production, but what if we need the 4th or 5th guy to contribute at a key point next year?  Clemson demonstrated this problem last night.  Their key DB went down and they had two huge coverage breakdowns and his replacement failed to stop a TE sweep.  That's 21 points right there and Clemson's national championship.  

Joined: 07/24/2008

MGoPoints: 8641

Richard75

January 12th, 2016 at 7:52 AM ^

Fair point, but it goes without saying that U-M has to beat OSU to make the playoff. Michigan is no different than anyone else in that regard. Losing your last regular-season game is pretty much a disqualifier. (I know Nebraska and Oklahoma overcame late meltdowns to make the BCS championship game, but their subsequent title-game performances have become a deterrent against that happening again.)

The issue here is whether a loss to MSU is more damaging for U-M than a midseason loss is for other national contenders. I'd say there's no difference whatsoever. By definition, if you lose to a conference opponent, you need that opponent to lose a league game to have a shot. The fact that MSU has to play a divisional team that's 50-4 over the past four years is helpful here.

Sure, MSU could lock an 11-1 U-M out of the B1G title game (and thus the playoff) by winning the division, but that isn't any likelier to happen than, say, LSU doing likewise to Alabama. Remember that the B1G tiebreaker is likely to work in U-M's favor in the event that OSU, MSU and U-M all go 1-1 against each other (with U-M beating OSU). The CFP rankings would be the determining factor, and since their losses would be later in the season than ours, we'd prevail.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Joined: 09/23/2008

MGoPoints: 5290

alum96

January 12th, 2016 at 1:40 AM ^

We were actually overhyped almost the entire Moeller Carr era - often ranked around 3-7 pre season yet having 3 and 4 loss seasons.  12 of these 16 seasons we lose 3+ games which is not what you expect from an annual preseason top 10 team - which we were almost every year.  Bo's teams "earned" the hype that the 2 successors enjoyed each preseason.

I get the arguement if your whole premise is Big 10 championships are main indicator of success but there was never a FSU or USC or Florida or Oklahoma or OSU sustained run of 1-2 loss seasons over 7-8 years as the preseason polls always predicted for UM.  Harbaugh did as well or better than 75% of that era's teams in his first season alone.

Ironically one of our least hyped teams was the one that vastly out paced expectations.

1990 Gary Moeller 9–3 6–2 T-1st W Gator 8 7
1991 Gary Moeller 10–2 8–0 1st L Rose 6 6
1992 Gary Moeller 9–0–3 6-0-2 1st W Rose 5 5
1993 Gary Moeller 8–4 5–3 T-4th W Hall of Fame 19 21
1994 Gary Moeller 8–4 5–3 4th W Holiday 12 12
Lloyd Carr (Big Ten Conference) (1995–2007)
1995 Lloyd Carr 9–4 5–3 T-3rd L Alamo 19 17
1996 Lloyd Carr 8–4 5–3 T-5th L Outback 20 20
1997 Lloyd Carr 12–0 8–0 1st W Rose 2 1
1998 Lloyd Carr 10–3 7–1 T-1st W Florida Citrus 12 12
1999 Lloyd Carr 10–2 6–2 T-2nd W Orange† 5 5
2000 Lloyd Carr 9–3 6–2 T-1st W Florida Citrus 10 11
2001 Lloyd Carr 8–4 6–2 2nd L Florida Citrus 20 20
2002 Lloyd Carr 10–3 6–2 3rd W Outback 9 9
2003 Lloyd Carr 10–3 7–1 1st L Rose† 7 6
2004 Lloyd Carr 9–3 7–1 T-1st L Rose† 12 14
2005 Lloyd Carr 7–5

 

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82301

ThadMattasagoblin

January 12th, 2016 at 1:19 AM ^

The good part of the schedule is that our qb should be gelling by October 29 and the kinks should be worked out. That's basically 2/3rds of your season where you have cupcakes with the only team talented enough to have a chance to beat us being Wisconsin.

Joined: 08/24/2011

MGoPoints: 63925

alum96

January 12th, 2016 at 1:26 AM ^

My bad, I thought we only posted 2 such threads today.  It's actually 3.

Rinse wash repeat.  UM will be ranked between 6 and 12 in almost every national preseason poll with talk about needing to replace QB and LB.  Comments in each thread will say MSU is way overrated no matter where they are.  And OSU will still be tough no matter what.

We can just cut and paste these same comments the next 7 months.  Already worked 3x today.

#Getoffmylawm

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82301

MichiganMan20

January 12th, 2016 at 1:32 AM ^

I think we'll be somewhere around 8 but the fact that we're even in this position shows how far we've come this past year. And I honestly think next year if things go right, we'll have a team that will be able to compete with any team in the country. Defense should be stellar if the linebackers figure themselves out and we return all our playmakers on offense, sure we'll be breaking in a new qb but I think we're in good hands with the guys we have and Harbaugh coaching them up. Not to mention we're bringing in a top 5 recruiting class adding on to an already talented and experienced team. Gonna be a fun ride fellas. Go Blue!



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Joined: 05/16/2010

MGoPoints: 4110

wasabimcdouble

January 12th, 2016 at 1:35 AM ^

Hi everybody, I'm new to mgoblog so I don't really know my way around. Anyway, i'd recommend looking at Rashan Gary's recent follows. The last seven in a row are Michigan commits.

Recent follows: Kurt Taylor, Benjamin St-Juste, Devery Hamilton, Michael Onwenu, Chris Evans, Kingston Davis, and Nate Johnson.

 

He also followed prospects Devin Asiasi and David Long jr.

 

I hope this eases tensions in the fanbase.

Joined: 01/12/2016

MGoPoints: 41

Wolfman

January 12th, 2016 at 1:56 AM ^

A handful of coaches, equipped with the right tools can get a lot done. JH is one on those, along with those in charge of the others he chose for the top 8 spots.

Joined: 07/23/2008

MGoPoints: 8259

McSomething

January 12th, 2016 at 8:53 AM ^

This is what irritates me about ESPN and the like. They do a ranking for next season immediately after the championship in played. Then they'll do one after national signing day. Then they'll do one after the spring game. Then they'll do one in mid-summer. Then they have their preseason one. They have to absolutely beat everything they do into the ground. Don't even get me started on the Heisman bullshit. And they wonder why their subscriber base is shrinking.

Joined: 09/29/2010

MGoPoints: 36836

LSAClassOf2000

January 12th, 2016 at 8:58 AM ^

Obviously, no one would argue with a Top 5 Michigan if it came to pass in December, but I will say that way-too-early preseason polls always give me pause because the first thing that comes to mind tends to be the variables that still sit wide open and unresolved right now. For example, the linebackers in Michigan's case - a great deal depends on the who and how well of this this group, if you will. Still, to see OSU and MSU sitting below Michigan in any poll - incredibly early or otherwise - is a weird but pleasant experience given recent history. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130561