ESPN - 2015 Preseason FPI Rankings - Michigan 25th
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/102380/102380
Other notables: MSU ranked 16th
Mods, please delete if already posted.
There is no way this is a top-25 team.
If you ain't with us, yeerrr against us!
(in pirate voice)
I'm sorry for seeing it how it really is. I hope Michigan never loses a game, but they're not very good based on the last few years of football.
WALK THE PLANK!
Can it wait until I go to Mexico for vacation?
Obviously not a jackhammer.
a heretic at that.
Good thing we got a new coaching staff and a grad transfer QB then.
We're not talking NC contender, we're talking Top 25. 9-3, 8-4ish.
16-17 returning starters, including the entire offensive line, plus what should be a game-managing, turnover reducing upgrade at QB in Jake Rudock (or better if Shane beats him out), a team that's certainly well within the Top 25 in recruiting in the past four years, plus Harbaugh!
We shot in the rankings a couple of years after victories over ND, only to come crashing down at the hands of RR and Hoke. Won't happen again.
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On the last few years of football, then you have absolutely no idea which way this season will go.
Let me get this straight...You're saying they are definitively, currently not very good based on the fact that they weren't very good the past couple years....years which featured different players at key positions, different team composition with regard to age and development, different schemes on both sides of the ball and completely different coaches with different philsophies and attitudes? Seems like an airtight case.
How in the hell is "it how it really is"? Thats pure opinion, speculation and conjecture. It is definately not how "it really is".
People who make statements they hold out as fact when they have no fucking clue what they are talking about really piss me off.
How in the hell is "it how it really is"? Thats pure opinion, speculation and conjecture. It is definately not how "it really is".
People who make statements they hold out as fact when they have no fucking clue what they are talking about really piss me off.
Man your just full of dumbass statements.
There is no way this is not a top-25 team.
That there is some good shit!
What an absurd statement.
It's not a top 25 team; it's a top 10 team. The rest of the country just doesn't know it yet.
Nobody thought Auburn was a top 25 team in 2013 or Mississippi State last year.
Our defense could end up better than 28th, would be extremely pleased if the offense were 27th
I was surprised that they were predicting our offense ranking to be ahead of our defense ranking, even if ever so slightly. I guess we did get Rudock, but our defense should be solid.
Michigan State 16th is a joke. Tennessee was 7-5 last year. No way are they better than MSU.
Dantonio requested to be ranked lower in a poll so he can continue his "we are disrespected" sob story.
Yolanda something.
Mrs. Yolanda Squirtbottom or something like that.
Mrs. Yolanda Squatbottom.
That's absurd. For Michigan to get any votes at all is nothing but homerism by somebody and to put Michigan State outside of the top 10 is a denial of what they've done over Dantonio's tenure.
The power of the Neg!
Agreed. How many times have we seen Michigan in these pointless and stupid top-25 polls and then go 7-6 or worse?
since 1969 Michigan has only been worse than 7-6 like 5 or 6 times. so not very often
7-6 wasn't possible for a majority of that time frame.
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They predict the offense will rank higher than the defense, so there's that.
What in the hell are they basing that off of? The star ratings these players had when they were high schoolers?
this team has an excellent coaching staff and some of the best athletes in the country. This team is certainly top 50, and I'd put them somewhere between 20 and 30 for a preseason ranking. 25 sounds fine to me, not that a preseason ranking counts for anything
I'm pretty sure this was posted way back when this came out in like March or May
That article in OP is from May. It has been update. Michigan is 33rd in the current.
information that pleases me, therefore it is accurate.
This just in: Brady Hoke is no longer the Head Coach of the football program at the University of Michigan.
Since when?
I'll bet UM finishes higher than 25th this year.
I'm not a big fan of drinking Kool-Aid after the last couple years, but I agree with you. There are too many highly rated recruits that will be getting their coaching from what appears to be exceptional coaches. I would bet money we are in the top 25 at the end of the season.
If I remember how this lame thing works it gives teams major credit for high level recruiting classes so teams like TN, UM, TX will show way above what they may actually do on the field.
Also 25th is not "outrageous" even excluding the dumb over reliance on recruiting ranks. A typical 8-4 team which about 50%+ of this blog expects (most as a floor) is going to be ranked 20 to 30.
By the way in the updated ESPN "rankings" the projected win total is 7.7 i.e. just about where every national pundit has UM and about right with a 28-35 rank (the updated rank is 33)
The 27th ranked offense on the other hand smells of catering to blog readers. If this team can pull off a top 30 offense it is going to win 10 games.
Neg-bomb me :-)
won't do it. I retaliated with an upvote.
I honestly don't think there are 26 better defenses than the one we have, particularly with our coaching staff. I wouldnt be surprised in the least if they ended up top 10. That said, I think the offense's rating is too high (for now).
EDIT: And in case you think I'm being a homer on the defense, consider that Michigan was ranked 7 in total defense last year. We should only improve overall with minimal losses and the addition of Peppers.
#7 was in total yards given up in a shitty conf for offenses. At 1 point deep into last year the Big 10 had 4 of the top 7 defenses and 8 of the top 25 based on total yards. Do you think the Big 10 is just that elite on defense as a conf? Or maybe having only 3 offenses that ranked top 50 nationally helped all the defenses - and many teams in the west never played 2 of those offenses (OSU/MSU). Total yards is misleading IMO. ACC defenses had similar help from a bunch of crap offenses.
Some reading on the subject: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/are-big-10-defensive-stats-inflated-bad-offe…
Here were the top 25 defenses in 14 per football outsiders FEI. I dont see many teams outside Utah State I can say UM was clearly better. UM had a decent defense that faced some of the worse passing QBs in the country in the conf -- guys like Leidner, Siemian, CJ Brown, and a true freshman in his 2nd game from Indiana. It also faced a broken down Hack who was sacked 44x last year - and that excludes the 100s of pressures that dude faced. The 10th 11th best Pac 12 QB in 2014 would have been the 3rd best in the Big 10 (if you combine all the OSU QBs as 1 player)
It made Nova look like a 3rd round NFL pick, made Gholson look like a 1st rounder, and Cook only had to throw 4x in the 2nd half as MSU was so in control of the game. It was a decent defense but nothing special and lost arguably 2 of the top 3 players off it in ryan and clark.
Neb, Wis, MSU and OSU were better in the conf.
UM was in Minn/Northwestern range in just about all advanced stats on defense.
Some of the teams below gave up a lot of pts but if UM gave up 31 to ND and 30+ to Minn you can imagine what facing Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, Baylor, TCU would do to our stats. They played exactly 2 good offenses all year in MSU and OSU.
And I dont want to hear about how the offense destroyed the defense at UM. UM had >30 minutes a game of possession and played like molasses on offense giving defense plenty of time. PSU Florida and Texas had just as shitty offenses as UM did last year and all had top 20ish defenses. UM was nearer to 40.
DFEI |
DFEI Rk |
Team |
FBS Rec |
FEI Rk |
DE |
DE Rk |
FD |
FD Rk |
AY |
AY Rk |
Ex |
Ex Rk |
Me |
Me Rk |
Va |
Va Rk |
DSOS | Rk |
-.928 | 1 | Clemson | 9-3 | 14 | -.712 | 1 | .487 | 1 | .254 | 1 | .097 | 24 | .052 | 2 | .182 | 1 | .008 | 1 |
-.718 | 2 | Virginia Tech | 6-6 | 23 | -.413 | 12 | .574 | 10 | .378 | 21 | .117 | 47 | .068 | 3 | .353 | 42 | .009 | 3 |
-.700 | 3 | Mississippi | 8-4 | 11 | -.503 | 6 | .625 | 33 | .344 | 8 | .074 | 9 | .118 | 33 | .246 | 4 | .038 | 25 |
-.644 | 4 | TCU | 11-1 | 6 | -.578 | 3 | .506 | 3 | .323 | 3 | .125 | 57 | .100 | 23 | .268 | 8 | .107 | 54 |
-.605 | 5 | Florida | 6-5 | 33 | -.451 | 8 | .606 | 25 | .361 | 13 | .102 | 30 | .102 | 25 | .272 | 9 | .038 | 23 |
-.601 | 6 | Louisville | 8-4 | 22 | -.576 | 4 | .526 | 4 | .334 | 5 | .109 | 39 | .077 | 8 | .284 | 13 | .059 | 38 |
-.600 | 7 | Ohio State | 14-1 | 2 | -.321 | 18 | .581 | 12 | .337 | 6 | .105 | 31 | .081 | 11 | .247 | 5 | .034 | 17 |
-.599 | 8 | Alabama | 11-2 | 3 | -.414 | 11 | .635 | 43 | .378 | 20 | .095 | 21 | .182 | 113 | .280 | 12 | .044 | 30 |
-.560 | 9 | Penn State | 7-6 | 46 | -.609 | 2 | .497 | 2 | .293 | 2 | .043 | 1 | .092 | 15 | .204 | 2 | .175 | 71 |
-.549 | 10 | Virginia | 4-7 | 35 | -.257 | 26 | .629 | 38 | .384 | 25 | .091 | 19 | .106 | 26 | .288 | 15 | .011 | 4 |
-.537 | 11 | Stanford | 7-5 | 18 | -.431 | 9 | .664 | 56 | .360 | 12 | .080 | 11 | .160 | 96 | .250 | 6 | .037 | 19 |
-.519 | 12 | Utah | 8-4 | 16 | -.261 | 25 | .624 | 32 | .402 | 31 | .121 | 51 | .148 | 74 | .313 | 24 | .031 | 15 |
-.455 | 13 | Missouri | 10-3 | 20 | -.302 | 22 | .686 | 79 | .379 | 22 | .098 | 25 | .157 | 91 | .297 | 18 | .039 | 26 |
-.441 | 14 | Oregon | 12-2 | 1 | -.056 | 59 | .724 | 101 | .485 | 83 | .125 | 59 | .184 | 114 | .396 | 74 | .020 | 6 |
-.429 | 15 | Georgia | 9-3 | 5 | -.203 | 33 | .614 | 27 | .385 | 26 | .079 | 10 | .150 | 78 | .325 | 32 | .026 | 13 |
DFEI |
DFEI Rk |
Team |
FBS Rec |
FEI Rk |
DE |
DE Rk |
FD |
FD Rk |
AY |
AY Rk |
Ex |
Ex Rk |
Me |
Me Rk |
Va |
Va Rk |
DSOS | Rk |
-.423 | 16 | Washington | 7-6 | 42 | -.312 | 19 | .671 | 62 | .418 | 40 | .082 | 15 | .146 | 71 | .350 | 41 | .041 | 29 |
-.406 | 17 | Mississippi State | 9-3 | 17 | -.290 | 23 | .630 | 40 | .407 | 35 | .130 | 63 | .084 | 13 | .307 | 22 | .020 | 7 |
-.394 | 18 | LSU | 7-5 | 27 | -.309 | 20 | .588 | 15 | .358 | 11 | .110 | 40 | .088 | 14 | .294 | 17 | .037 | 21 |
-.393 | 19 | Arkansas | 6-6 | 21 | -.225 | 29 | .575 | 11 | .382 | 24 | .108 | 36 | .125 | 40 | .321 | 27 | .024 | 11 |
-.391 | 20 | USC | 9-4 | 9 | -.116 | 52 | .701 | 90 | .444 | 57 | .089 | 18 | .159 | 95 | .359 | 47 | .038 | 24 |
-.384 | 21 | Texas | 6-7 | 73 | -.363 | 14 | .610 | 26 | .364 | 15 | .071 | 8 | .156 | 89 | .287 | 14 | .034 | 18 |
-.356 | 22 | Arizona State | 9-3 | 13 | -.158 | 40 | .671 | 64 | .428 | 45 | .132 | 65 | .138 | 59 | .357 | 46 | .066 | 40 |
-.352 | 23 | Wisconsin | 10-3 | 24 | -.331 | 17 | .558 | 8 | .346 | 9 | .129 | 62 | .068 | 4 | .244 | 3 | .092 | 50 |
-.324 | 24 | Utah State | 9-4 | 60 | -.408 | 13 | .623 | 31 | .363 | 14 | .099 | 27 | .093 | 16 | .277 | 11 | .307 | 98 |
-.317 | 25 | Tennessee | 6-6 | 34 | -.164 | 39 | .604 | 24 | .376 | 18 | .134 | 68 | .074 | 6 | .272 | 10 | .051 | 32 |
I found this at a different place. The work was not my own.
Taking a look at the preseason coach's poll compared to ESPN's "Preseason FPI rankings"
Coach Poll Rank...........FPI Rank......Difference
1.......Ohio State.........1...Ohio St....(NA)
2.......TCU..................2...Alabama....(+1)
3.......Alabama............3...TCU........(-1)
4.......Baylor...............4...LSU........(+9)
5.......Oregon..............5...Baylor.....(-1)
6.......Michigan State...6...Oregon.....(-1)
7.......Auburn..............7...Notre Dame.(+4)
8.......Florida St...........8...Ole Miss...(+7)
9.......Georgia..............9...Georgia....(NA)
10.....USC..................10..Arkansas...(+10)
11......Notre Dame......11..Tex A&M....(+16)
12......Clemson...........12..UCLA.......(+2)
13......LSU..................13..USC........(-3)
14......UCLA................14..Tennessee..(+11)
15......Ole Miss............15..Oklahoma...(+4)
16......Arizona State.....16..Mich. St...(-10)
17......Georgia Tech......17..Stanford...(+4)
18......Wisconsin...........18..Auburn.....(-11)
19......Oklahoma...........19..Clemson....(-7)
20......Arkansas.............20..AZ State...(-4)
21......Stanford.............21..Fla St.....(-13)
22......Arizona...............22..Miss. St...(+4)
23......Missouri..............23..Ga Tech....(-6)
24......Boise State..........24..Mizzou.....(-1)
25......Tennessee...........25..Michigan...(1 vote in coaches poll)
26......Miss. St
27......Tex A&M
Of the 11 teams that were ranked higher in the FPI than in coaches poll, 7 were SEC teams.
Final disparity between polls by conference (# of spots moved):
ACC......(-26)
Big 10...(-10)
Big 12...(+2)
Pac 12...(-2)
SEC......(+46)
I don't see how anybody could argue that ESPN is unbiased.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/3fa7ff/coaches_poll_vs_espn_poll/
25th is usually about an 8-4 team. Id take the over on that with this squad and Harbs at the helm.