Elite 8 Odds: UK -2, MSU -5.5, AZ -3, UF -10

Submitted by alum96 on

Morning odds:

Michigan opens a 2 point dog versus a UK team that just took down a #1 and #4 and is trying to recreate 91-92 Fab 5 magic.

MSU a pretty heavy favorite here as UConn is going to have major issues matching their front line.  

Wisconsin getting decent respect versus an athletic Arizona squad; two long teams and an interesting clash.

Florida of course heavy favorite vs Cinderella.

Derelicious

March 29th, 2014 at 10:52 AM ^

I don't see where all the Wisconsin love is coming from.  Yes, they looked absolutely dominant against Baylor, who is a good team, but they were awfully close to getting knocked off by Oregon.  It took a big run down the stretch to win that.  I'm not saying they're not solid, but I think saying they are playing better than anyone is a bit much.  Another game like the Baylor one and I'll jump on board.

snarling wolverine

March 29th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^

Wisconsin is 13-2 in its last 15 games.  Basically, aside from a slump in January for 2-3 weeks, they've looked really strong this season.  They struggled some against Oregon but also opened the tournament with a 40-point thrashing, and then pounded Baylor.  And we saw them put on a clinic in Crisler a month ago.

 

 

 

bballislife22

March 29th, 2014 at 10:10 AM ^

What is it about our team that makes people always pick against us? I don't know but I hope it keeps up. This team seems to love proving people wrong. GR3 tweeted something along the lines of "Feeling kinda slighted" late last night as Seth Davis, Gottleib, Barkley, and Steve Smith all picked against us.

Farnn

March 29th, 2014 at 10:34 AM ^

I think it has to do with the fact that Michigan is a very 3 pt orriented team and doesn't have big players down low.  They just don't look like the blueprint for a great team in most commentators minds.  Much more the look of a Cinderella team/underdog than a frontrunner.

gustave ferbert

March 29th, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^

can't overcome the size issue. . . (yeah I said it).  They'll always favor teams who can deliver a big presence in the paint and shy away from those built around perimeter shooting because teams like Michigan can have an off night  and the bigger teams usually prevail even when their own shooting is bad. . .

mGrowOld

March 29th, 2014 at 11:22 AM ^

You know why?  One game.  The B1G title game is stuck in the media's mind and THAT team, not the team that won the B1G by three full games, is the one they remember.  So the fact that we keep winning is nothing short of baffelling to them - given what a shittly team we obviously are.

I love it.  The coaches use this as fuel and the players are seething.  Nothing better than a pissed off, motivated team of excellent, well-coached players.   And we have that.

bronxblue

March 29th, 2014 at 12:52 PM ^

I agree that is part of it, but this team also doesn't "look" like an elite team despite its record.  Hell, they lost the national POY and another 1st-rounder from last year's team, plus their most touted returning player barely played.  They're winning shooting 3s and playing acceptable defense, not really rebounding much, and basically having the profile of a mid-major for those reporters too lazy to really dig deep.  Kentucky, of course, is coached by an absolute idiot who is very good at convincing (read: paying) good HS players to play for him for a year and then kicking them out.  But oh, look at all of those star ratings!

rob f

March 29th, 2014 at 10:23 AM ^

They've looked scary dominant so far.

Michigan vs. Kentucky game?  I would have thought Michigan -2, but if they want to call us an underdog, that can be just a little more motivation.  Not that "The Engineer" needs more motivation, but I'm sure being the underdogs here will be mentioned in our locker room.

LSAClassOf2000

March 29th, 2014 at 10:22 AM ^

The favored teams and estimated probabilities courtesy of Massey:

Florida - 85% (predicted 69-58 median score, Florida by 10.5)

Arizona - 57% (predicted 66-64 median score, Arizona by 2.5)

Michigan State - 62% (predicted 71-68 median score, MSU by 3.5)

Kentucky - 57% (predicted 71-69 median score, UK favored by 2.5)

EDIT: See below. Good catch - not enough coffee on this end. Fixed.

not TOM BRADY

March 29th, 2014 at 10:28 AM ^

We are going to blow them out. Won't be able to stop nick and caris. They had trouble stopping Hancock on the drive. If Cauley stein is out. They might have to go small with randle at the 5 because Johnson isn't athletic enough to gaurd the pick and roll. I hope JB runs a lot of 1-3-1 at them a force some turnovers. They don't have a true pg. They have talent but have flaws too that nobody is pointing out.

RobM_24

March 29th, 2014 at 10:36 AM ^

We are playing the greatest combination of a #11 and #8 seed ever. Then Selection Committee really shit the bed this year. I don't think a power conference team should be lower than a #10. Furthermore, UK should have been at least a #7 or #6. Wichita St. got jobbed in that deal.

RobM_24

March 29th, 2014 at 11:21 AM ^

I'm just saying ... usually when your path includes a #11 and a #8, you'd be getting a significant break. I don't think there's much of a difference between Duke/Tennessee or Kentucky/Wichita/Louisville ... I'd much rather play #11 Dayton or #7 UConn ... even the low seeds in our region were stacked -- all the way out to the Tennessee/Iowa play in game.

BlueSwave34

March 29th, 2014 at 10:54 AM ^

Uk just got done beating their biggest rival. In Kentucky bearing louisville in basketball to them is equivalent to us beating Ohio in football/basketball. That was their Super Bowl last night. Plus only having 1 day to prepare for our offense...I like our chances.

jdon

March 29th, 2014 at 12:34 PM ^

I think you are hearing this again and again because it makes sense.

Kentucky is also younger and less likely to pick up our offense...

We may lose, and we may win, but we will never be here again... (until next year. lol)

gwkrlghl

March 29th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^

If Michigan beat Ohio State and was on their way to the Rose Bowl, would you accept someone else saying "Oh Michigan's going to lose, beating Ohio State is their super bowl". No, you'd say "No winning that was awesome but we're still going to try to win the bigger game"

Kentucky isn't going to just lolly-gag around and go "Oh wellll. I'm just glad we beat Louisville. That's why we're in this tournament thing right guys?"

alum96

March 29th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^

I think the difference is duration of time.  If UM beat OSU in mid/late Nov they'd have well over a month to regroup before a Rose Bowl.  Plus we have not been in the Big 10 title game so people around here forget there is actually a game to play after you beat Ohio. (sigh)

A better example would be if UM football beat OSU to get to the Big 10 title game and had to play someone they are not emotionally connected to ....like say a Nebraska in the Big 10 title game on a relatively short turnaround.  Really 2 days in bball would be like playing Ohio on Saturday and then having a Thursday night game for the Big 10 championship. 

Part of me says this will be an issue for UK but I think it would be more of an issue if they were jrs and srs.  18 yr olds have a way to forget things faster and if you have been on campus for 6 months you don't develop the same hate and passion and investment in the rivalry as you do if you had been there 3 years.  Plus most of these UK kids are "mercenary" types; i.e. they went to UK thinking its 1 and done.  So it's more of a pitstop then a place you wrap yourself up in the colors....

MGoKalamazoo

March 29th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^

It's bigger to the fans than it is to the players. Don't get me wrong, the players want to win just as bad as the next guy but it's not like the whole season rests on that one game on New Years Eve. Last night was a different story obviously since Louisville is now done. Think back to 2012 when Kentucky beat Louisville in the Final Four. Kentucky didn't stop there and pat themselves on the back. 

Indonacious

March 29th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^

I'm not sure if I buy that the Kentucky team of one and dones, none of which are from Kentucky are nearly as emotionally invested in that game relative to other games of similar tournament magnitude as the fans of both teams are. And even if they are Kentucky played Louisville in the final four the year they won the title a couple years ago. I think this effect is being overblown a lot.

Franch Dressing

March 29th, 2014 at 11:06 AM ^

But Kentucky only has 10 losses! They are better than. people give them credit for. Young, raw talent and athleticism.

uminks

March 29th, 2014 at 11:10 AM ^

They have talent and as a team have been playing well. I think we are going to have to out score them. I hope we shoot 3's like we did during the first half of the TN game but keep it up all through the game!

I see three scenarios. Michigan wins a close game, UK wins a close game or UK wins by 20 or more.