The effect of the NFL rookie cap on red shirting

Pretty good point, I haden't thought of that. Only problem is that the coaches determine the redshirts, not the players, so if it's in the best interests of the coaches to redshirt a player they will. It is possible that recruits start demanding playing time freshman year because of this new salary rule, but I don't think it will make a significant difference.

Whether it's the first contract or the second, players will jump to the NFL after weighing two questions: 1) Am I selling high (i.e., am I going at a time when I'm likely to go as high as possible in the draft)?; and 2) How badly do I need the money now? This may push the analysis of the first question a little bit, as some players may feel that as long as they can make a team, they're likely to improve their value by the time a second contract comes along, but for the most part, players now and then will go to the NFL as soon as they feel they are ready rather than risking injury or delaying payday. On the other hand, if a player is likely to improve significantly and have greater value by waiting another year, they will probably wait rather than risking not making a team and never getting to the second contract.

There will, of course, always be exceptions (Luck, Manning, etc.), but I don't see this as a big game-changer on the analysis.

With the cap all draft salaries have been pushed down.  For example in 2010, #14 did a 5 year/21 million dollar deal.  In 2011, #8 did a 12.6 million dollar deal over four years.  The money in the lower rounds is less.

That's still good money, but the ability to make really good money in the lower 1st round/2nd round is gone.  That creates a system where someone who is early second round (and thus headed for 3 or 4 years of second round money) might decide to forgo the draft in hopes of his senior year stats pushing him into the 1st round and access to a nicer contract.  

So your elites will bolt, but the borderline ones might decide to buy insurance and come back for their senior year, hoping to avoid a spending three years on a 2nd round pay scale.  

I don't understand how that change supports your argument for them leaving earlier for the NFL, which is required to support your argument that players will skip redshirts more frequently.  By forcing them to perform in the NFL before getting "the real deal" I see nothing but upside for the NFL Team owners.  But you don't provide a dollar amount range on how much or how many players are affected by the rookie cap.  Is it affecting every player including the OL salaries?  or is it just capping the QB/RB/WR that is picked in the first 10 picks?  If the NFL cap only affects 5-10 rookies then I don't see where anything will change at all about how much good players want to play as soon as possible and as much as possible.

Also, Redshirting was a rule change to allow Coaches to put players on the field in their freshman year.  Previously no one could play a freshman at all.  So basically Coaches have always been the ones who want to win games by any means within the rules, and thus I don't see how any minor changes in the NFL would alter a College Coaches desire to win.

I don't see how this changes how early players leave, because to the players who care more about an NFL contract than a 4 year degree, anything above $0.00 a year is better than the deal they are getting at college.

Charles Woodson had his redshirt burned because he was the best corner on the team.  He left after his Junior year because he was ready to play NFL level football, had won the Heisman, and was on a National Champtionship team.

The players from Alabama left after three years for much the same reasons.  Brandon Graham stayed on a floundering team because he still needed to develop to be ready for the NFL.  Would he have had any contract if he left as a Junior?  Some players leave thinking they are ready, and don't pick up a contract.

Your argument hasn't provided any proof that the rookie cap is altering the key factors in a decision to leave college, and in fact it seems to reduce the incentive if it does anything at all.

A redshirt makes zero difference in the time they can go to the NFL right? It is three years from high school redshirt sophmore or a junior so if they are good the redshirt wouldnt change the age they go in the NFL anyway. So their second contract isnt really a year behind either way. The only thing is one less year of actually playing time.

Not really going to change much. The big stars typically don't become 5th year seniors anyway.

As a counter-point, a redshirt year gives student athletes a year to focus on academics and get a full years' worth of classes under their belt before they start taking full reps at practice and playing in games. That's less physical wear and tear on their body, and gets them closer to a degree. Student athletes who have a genuine interest in getting their degree can use a redshirt year to their advantage, allowing them to have a degree and only three years of wear and tear before making a case for the NFL.

Signing day for the I-A schools had the 124 schools getting Letters of Intent from some 2500 high school seniors, give or take (trivia answer: worst rated class on Rivals goes to the new I-A program at Texas-San Antonio).  The most recent NFL draft went 7 rounds and picked a total of 254 college players, with a handful drafted from I-AA, II, and III. 

So the odds that the average high school senior needs to worry about whether his getting a redshirt will affect his NFL draft status and 2nd contract are about 1 in 10.  The odds a given member of this class will be high first rounder and have to worry about it are about 1 in 100.  Granted, if he's at a BCS school and a school that's historically putting out lots of NFL draftees, the odds are better...but those are not the folks in many cases who are likely to redshirt (unless they're coming in undersized for one of the lines).

The problem is that many more than the 1 in 10 think *they* are the 1 who will be that high draft pick and that they should get special treatment and not be redshirted so that they can get the exposure.  I'm positive coaches are wise to that and will not let such attitudes be tolerated in most cases.