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Effect of losing a PG (no, he's not pro yet)

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May 1st, 2011 at 8:27 PM
#1
tasnyder01
Joined: 10/11/2010
MGoPoints: 762
Effect of losing a PG (no, he's not pro yet)

First of all, this is not to proclaim that D-Mo WILL go pro, only to state what the effects MIGHT BE IF HE DOES.  This is an analytical approach to what next year might look like without D-Mo IF he chooses the NBA.

EFFECTS OF LOSING MARGINAL PGS

We all know the effects of losing average PGs.  We lost three two years ago (Merritt, Lee, and Grady) and our offense went down in flames.  Most noticably, our 3PT% went down.  Our team chemistry seemed to go down the toilet too.  So, three areas of effect: 3PT%, chemistry, and overall offense.

3PT%

Merritt was over 40% for his career, but shot only 51 3PTs.

Lee was at 36% his senior season, and shot 52 attempts that year.

The team total in 08-09 was 920 3PAs, and in 09-10: 760 3PAs.

 

Team clearly got fewer 3PAs the following year.  The team also went down in shooting percentage.  Correlation, but I believe this stems from causation.  We lost ~100 attempts, which were falling at a 37% clip.  That's about 100 points.  Those points could have been made up by higher averages from other players, but we went from 67 to 64 PPG.  That, over 33 games, makes 100 points of difference.  So, in all those close games, the team lost points by missing the above average 3 point shooting of the PGs.

 

Luckily, this doesn't really matter in terms of D-Mos RAW shooting numbers.  He doesn't shoot the three very well.  But, he does set up the 3 for others very well.

 

I'll be back next time to look at the other aspects.  (This took more time than I thought to write up...)

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May 1st, 2011 at 8:39 PM | i really thought he was going (Score:0 Redundant)
FeelinBlue
Joined: 03/16/2011
MGoPoints: 89

i really thought he was going to come back.

i will miss him alot and it couldve been win-win situation for both UMich and D-M if he comes back, but i think Trey Burke will do a great job replacing D-M.

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May 1st, 2011 at 8:45 PM | He hasn't left yet, but I (Score:1)
coldnjl
Joined: 12/31/2009
MGoPoints: 2427

He hasn't left yet, but I feel that he is leaning on going. Logically, its best for his development to wait a year, however, this class is weak and this year, he probably will have the best chance of landing a 1rst round slot

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May 1st, 2011 at 9:01 PM | I really hate to be (Score:3 Insightful)
the_white_tiger
the_white_tiger's picture
Joined: 02/07/2009
MGoPoints: 5227

I really hate to be self-referential, but I think I did a pretty decent job going into what the difference of losing Morris would be for next year:

http://maizecoloredglasses.blogspot.com/2011/04/what-if-darius-morris-goes-pro.html

Maize n Brew

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May 1st, 2011 at 9:17 PM | That is a really good write (Score:1)
CStock20
Joined: 06/08/2010
MGoPoints: 371

That is a really good write up, I completely agree that pretty much everything can be replaced except the passing and playmaking ability of Morris. I'm hoping if he does leave that Trey can come in, be a leader and bring his deadly shooting ability to the pg position (Something we lack with Darius in there), to make up for Darius' oustanding passing ability. 

"And they'll never catch him..."

 

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May 1st, 2011 at 9:27 PM | He's going to have to be (Score:1)
justingoblue
justingoblue's picture
Joined: 11/16/2010
MGoPoints: 10866

He's going to have to be raining points every game to make up for the loss in production brought on by Darius' passing skills.

the_white_tiger: loved the write up. It looks like you've gotten about as many views as TomVH gets in his weekly diary, so that's some good news. Keep it up, you're a good writer and apparently good with numbers as well. That can be a deadly combo (see Cook, Brian).

Go Blue!

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May 1st, 2011 at 10:21 PM | Thanks for the kind words (Score:1)
the_white_tiger
the_white_tiger's picture
Joined: 02/07/2009
MGoPoints: 5227

Thanks for the kind words guys. I don't think I'll ever get anywhere near Brian's level, but it's an aspiration I guess.

As for Morris, I really hope he doesn't leave, but ultimately I think that his loss won't be catastrophic. Burke isn't going to replace his points, but Smotrycz and Hardaway can help make up for them. I just wonder about whether Darius would be making the right choice bvy leaving. Draft is really shallow, so he might need to go when his opportunity is best, but he obviously needs to work on areas of his game. If he comes back and doesn't get that done, he'll be worse off though.

Maize n Brew

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May 1st, 2011 at 10:26 PM | I thnk his loss will hurt the (Score:0)
Michigan248
Michigan248's picture
Joined: 01/25/2011
MGoPoints: 700

I thnk his loss will hurt the team but not as much as you think. we have 2 pretty good talents coming in and 1 of them shoots the 3 really well.

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May 1st, 2011 at 10:43 PM | It's hard to replace the best (Score:1)
the_white_tiger
the_white_tiger's picture
Joined: 02/07/2009
MGoPoints: 5227

It's hard to replace the best assist guy in any of the BCS conferences though.

Maize n Brew

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May 2nd, 2011 at 8:43 AM | Hey WT, you should point readers (Score:1)
MGlobules
Joined: 11/17/2008
MGoPoints: 5148

at UM Hoops to this, if you haven't already (I know that you post there). Agree with pretty much everything you say, but wonder how Heckmann might alter the equation. You don't speculate about Brundidge or Burke either, but I suspect that--like me--you think the chance that Burke steps in and runs the floor like Darius as a freshman is zero. Presumably, Heckmann has more big game experience and another year under his belt, but would be a lot to hang on a kid who will have to work hard to get his bearings already. . .

 

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May 2nd, 2011 at 11:56 AM | It's about Leadership (Score:2)
Steve in PA
Steve in PA's picture
Joined: 08/10/2009
MGoPoints: 2345

Lee, and to a lesser extent Merrit, were leaders on that team.  I think they held Manny in check and once they were gone Manny was free to run down the court and chuck up a bad shot after bad shot while burning less than 10 seconds off the shot clock.  

I also think that was the year Manny had some problems with Coach B that predicted his bolt from campus.  LLP was supposed to be the next PG and we all know how well that worked out.

If Morris goes (please baby Jesus don't let it happen) there won't be a leadership void like last time.  You have guys that are going to be seniors who have shown leadership as well as some underclassmen who will step up.

 

 

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