EDIT: Ohio Win last night against NW keeps their title Hopes Alive
Ohio's 75 - 73 win against Northwestern last night keeps Michigan's Big 10 regular season title hopes alive.
EDIT: This isn't true, as graciously pointed out by several posters below. Michigan's title hopes depend on their winning out, and Ohio beating Michigan State Sunday.
It also makes the Michigan - Illinois, Michigan - Penn State and Ohio - Michigan State games this Sunday completely meaningful.
While I would prefer that Michigan control its own destiny fully, how can you not be pleased? To be in the running for a shared championship this year is stunning. It has been almost 30 years since Michigan had a Big 10 Basketball title.
The biggest question mark for me is Ohio. They barely won. Northwestern scored to tie the game with a little more than 7 seconds left, but Sullinger managed to pull out a win for Ohio with only 3 seconds left in the game. And Shurna's desperation three hit the front of the iron.
Ohio will have to play out of its mind on the road Sunday, and Michigan State will have to lay a stinker at home in order for Michigan, Ohio, and Michigan State to share the title.
Does Pomeroy re-calculate percentages of winning with each game? i.e., the computers gave Michigan a 15% chance of winning the Big 10 title yesterday. I assume that percentage goes up slightly with Ohio's victory last night. And would go up more with a Michigan victory tonight.
"The biggest question mark for me is Ohio. They barely won. "
MSU lost at NW. It took Michigan OT to beat NW @ NW. I don't think "barely winning" is a problem there.
You're half right. I think NW plays everyone pretty competitively, and is hard to beat at home. The thing is, Ohio has simply not impressed anyone every time they play against a competitive team, especially on the road. They lost at Kansas, lost at Indiana, lost at Michigan, lost at Illinois. And they already lost to Michigan State, convincingly, at the Schott. Tell me again why this instills confidence that the outcome will be different this Sunday? You know the definition of insanity: to do the same thing and expect different results.
Then college basketball is insane.
If 2 teams played each other 10 times, I bet you'd see a 25 point variation in the outcomes. Heck, OSU beat NW by 33 at home.
MSU also lost at Indiana, at Michigan and at Illinois.
I assume you are plenty familiar with how Big Ten basketball works, but I don't understand any of the arguments you're trying to make.
MSU is playing terrible right now! The Minnesota game was brutal and the only way MSU escaped with a win was one of the most self inflicted collapses ive seen this season. MSU was down at Purdue in the 2nd half until Purdue somehow missed 23 of 24 shots, many of which were uncontested and bunnies around the rim. Then you look at the IU blowout and see that MSU has no outside shooting right now other than D. Green, Appling is so out of it mentally he has no confidence and Indiana just sagged off him and collapsed the lane which is the recipe for beating MSU. MSU is still a very flawed team with below average guard play, they usually overcome these deficiencies by dominating the boards and solid defense. If OSU comes in with the mindset of being physical with an emphassis on rebounding they can easily win this game as they are far more talented than MSU.
They are far from "playing terrible." I mean come on, everyone struggles against IU at Assembly (still can't believe they lost to Minny, though -- that one gets weirder by the day). And it was obvious that they were completely disinterested in that Nebraska game because let's be honest, they could have played their reserves for the entire second half and still won comfortably.
I will agree that the Minnesota game was more of a Gopher loss than a Spartan victory. Talk about the most classic example of playing not to lose down the stretch.
Terrible is a bit strong, but the point stands that they are not unbeatable and struggling a bit.
Kentucky and Syracuse they are not.
It's not that they barely won, it's that they almost lost a 13 point lead late in the second half. NW is a tough team, but there's definitely some team chemistry issues at Ohio. The local radio guys are already wondering which Freshman is going to transfer due to lack of playing time.
With family in the Columbus area, I've also heard this refrain of freshmen malcontents over PT. I'm not sure why. Sullinger may leave after this year. Buford is gone. There will be major minutes available over the next 3 years. If Thomas takes another leap next year, he may bolt after his junior season.
Chemistry issues are tough to overcome, so a long OSU tourney run could be derailed by an unhappy roster.
Matta has a history of not giving his bench players a lot of minutes. There are many theories on this, I won't get into them now. The Freshmen on the team seemed to be ok with this when they were winning but have gotten cranky since they've been losing more games. The impression I get is that they were planning on being 1 or 2 and done players and aren't looking at the next 3 years. Plus you have guys like Scott who is sitting behind Craft (a sophomore) at PG. He could be getting 3 minutes a game for the next 2 years.
I think lack of outside shooting is going to derail their tourney run.
I wouldn't be all that surprised if Thomas bolts after this year. He doesn't play any defense, but I think a lot of NBA teams would be attracted to his offensive game. He's pretty skilled for a guy that's 6'7".
I guess I don't understand. Why did we need Ohio to win last night? As long as they beat MSU on sunday and we win out, we get a share of the championship right? How would Ohio losing last night change that?
The thought here must be that if Ohio lost last night they would not be playing for anything on Sunday. Somehow that would mean they have less chance of winning on Sunday.
Is there a tie breaker procedure for a two-way tie that would give MSU the advantage?
You're technically right. But come on. Ohio as a team is on a knife edge. They are very close to imploding. If they had lost last night, it would be all too easy for them to throw in the towel and lay down against Michigan State. Now they have something to play for. Even if their season has been a disappointment, to end with a share of the Big 10 title is something to play for, and something Matta can use this week. He can appeal to their pride. If Sullinger and Buford have a great game Sunday, and Craft continues well, they at least have a chance to beat Michigan State. If they had lost last night? Fuggedaboutit.
The Big Ten regular season isn't the end of the season. Sports are replete with instances of teams who seemingly have nothing to play for versus teams who do pulling an upset. And OSU is still one of the most talented teams in the country, beating State wouldn't be much of an upset, even in East Lansing. Revenge for getting whooped on in Columbus is motivation enough. I do agree they seem to have some problems with chemistry or something because they should be better than they've been the past few weeks but they still have plenty to play for and are fully capable of beating any team in the nation.
Maybe I am missing something, why did OSU need to win last night? I understand a win keeps their B1G hopes alive and maybe gives them more motivation to win against Sparty, but they could have lost, making it us and Sparty with the only chance at the co-title.
Do you think Ohio would really play to win Sunday if they had lost last night?
Plus a first round bye in the BIG Tournament.
You're not, OSU didn't need to win, in fact, by them winning it now gives them a share of the big ten title if they beat MSU. So if Michigan wins out and OSU beats MSU there will be a 3 way tie for the title. I guess you could argue that OSU will be playing for something against MSU now which means they'll have a better chance of winning, but no matter what happened last night we need to win 2 games and they need to beat MSU to get a title.
Assuming things go the way we generally want them to (that is, we win out, Ohio beats MSU), Ohio would get the same seed in the tourney regardless of the northwestern game (3). If there is a three way tie, our records against the next highest team in the big ten will be the tiebreaker. Against Wisconsin, MSU is 2-0, we are 1-0, and Ohio is 1-1, so the seedings will go in that order.
So they could still get a share of the Big Ten title, but still can't be seeded higher than we are in the tournament (if we win out) even if they beat State. Which is sort of nice.
This is also assuming that Wisconsin doesn't lose to Illinois AND Purdue doesn't beat Indiana. If BOTH of those happen (and we get into the three way tie on top) then I believe we would be a 3 seed. The comparison between us and Ohio would be tied all the way down to Iowa in that case, and as we are 0-1 against them...
So rooting guidelines: we want either Wisconsin to beat Illinois or Indiana to beat Purdue. And we want Ohio to beat MSU without having to actually root for either of them.
I know, completely brutal for them. I hope Golic is there to lend support to Greeny and Wilbon as they cry themselves to sleep to tell them, "It's okay. I have been returning to glory for 15 years now."
I'd be surprised if it didn't jump significantly from 15%. If you're parlaying four events, the odds are drastically lower than parlaying three. We'll see another huge jump in probability if we win tonight.
Edit: Assuming I understand my math correctly, if Ohio has a 50% chance of winning from Kenpom, and we're 50% in both our matchups (with Ohio at 50% last night), our odds move from .5*.5*.5*.5 (.0625) to .5*.5*.5 (.125), or double. A win tonight would then bring the odds to .25. Obviously those numbers are made up (using all 50%'s that is), but you get the general idea.
...if the Ohio game was a part of the mathematical equation. We didn't need Ohio to win, and last night's game doesn't change the calculus* involved. Before last night we needed (a) to win out, and (b) for Ohio to beat Sparty. The same is true this morning.
*In this case, calculus == addition, multiplication, and division. There are no derivations to be had, which is good because I haven't seen the Mathlete around recently.
My mistake. Just change my original statement from parlaying four events to three. We'd see odds jump from .5*.5*.5, 12.5%, to .5*.5, 25%, if everyone was at 50% Kenpom and we won tonight.
Dylan at UMHoops ran the actual kenpom numbers (as of Feb. 28th)
Ken Pomeroy’s rankings give Michigan a 54% chance of beating Illinois and a 70% chance of knocking off Penn State. The statisticians among you will note that’s a 37.8% chance of Michigan winning out. Combine that with the 39% chance that Pomeroy’s computers give for an Ohio State upset in East Lansing and you’re left with a 14.7% chance of Michigan earning a share of the Big Ten title.
So a win tonight puts M's title chances at 27.3%. MSU is still a pretty strong favorite in East Lansing.
a horrible feeling about tonight.
(note the score)
At Illinois just sucks. I know that the end can't come soon enough for the Illini, I just hate (that) Assembly Hall (and the other one). I attach playing at Illinois with many painful losses in the past, and I think Michigan has some major kinks to work out. (Note - I think they will get worked out, I just don't know about tonight).
to a consensus definition of trolling. I don't think my comment qualifies.
If it's not blind optimism and homerism, it's trolling.
Illinois might be a dumpster fire, but it is going to take a great effort to beat a disjointed, but very talented team on their senior night. I think we get it done though.
I'm not worried about either game for Michigan. I truely believe they win out. I am not confident, however, that Ohio can beat MSU at home. Ohio looks very sluggish as of late.
Ohio is having some internal conflict. There really does not seem to be much positive communication on their team between players or between coach and players. Sullinger is also watching his draft picture become more clouded as his deficiencies are exposed a little more. They seem fractured.
I know that we SHOULD be able to beat Illinois handily, as we essentially did at home, but winning on the road in the B1G has obviously proved difficult no matter who you are. I think this game should go a long way towards preparing us for the NCAA tournament, win or lose (playing an inferior but talented team).
I don't think a win is guaranteed at all, but I do think Michigan matches up well with Illinois. Oddly enough, Michigan seems to do better against teams with traditional big men (Sullinger, Leonard) than it does when a team plays a forward at the five (Shurna, Hummel).
I think Illinois will come out fired up tonight, but I think there's a good chance that they'll wilt if Michigan can withstand an early surge.
that's how you over look opponents and lose winnable games. just focusing on ourself. Purdue game is a perfect example.
If Ohio had lost, two Michigan wins would have put them in a position where beating Sparty would give Michigan a share of the title, and losing to them would screw Michigan out of a share of the title. Since they hate Michigan so much down there, I can't imagine them giving more than a half-hearted effort if they didn't have a "dog in the fight."
Now that Ohio can play for part of the championship, too, the chances of them tanking to Sparty are significantly downgraded. It wouldn't surprise me if they sacrificed their own chance at a shared title just to screw Michigan, just out of spite, but hopefully this keeps them honest against Sparty.
The "new, improved Crisler Center" could always used a nice, new banner to spruce things up.
Do they put a banner up for every NCAA appearance? I vaguely remember some NIT banners too.
Regardless, a Big 10 title, even shared, has not been a common thing for Michigan. I can easily imagine some hoopla next season with the opening of the "new, improved" Crisler Center, should they be able to raise that banner and also one for a sweet 16 appearance.
Banners are raised for championships (Big Ten/NIT/BTT/NCAA) and Final Four appearances. Nothing else.
The Final Four is a "Region Championship". The NCAA even gives a trophy for it.
So you can accurately say that "Banners are raised for Championships. Nothing else." That's impressive.