Early Week Line Michigan -7, Gamblers drop to -3.5
Somebody care to explain Michigan being a 7 point favorite, or even a 4 point favorite at a neutral site?
I'm one of the few that circled the Purdue game a few weeks ago as one to watch out for, even when we had momentum. I don't care if they were shut out last week, 7 points is plenty bigger than I expected.
I wouldn't be surprised if the line closed down to maybe -3 or -4 by the end of the week.
EDIT:
Per jaimemac, looks like the -7 was just an early suggested line, but that most are actually offering -3.5 to start. That seems much more sensible. Title adjusted accordingly.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:11 AM ^
-7 seems very high. I wouldn't have been suprised to see it start at -3 and finish at -1 or even.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:12 AM ^
Yeah, I was going to say -1 as well, but tried to stay positive. -4 still means we win a neutral site as the home team is spotted 3 points in most cases. But yeah, I'm not even 100% confident we'd be a neutral site favorite.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:21 AM ^
we're tied for last in the conference, and one of the teams we're tied with just beat us 38-13. we haven't scored a second-half point in the last two games we've played, while we gave up 63 second-half points in those games. but the money is on us? that's the most encouraging thing i've heard in the last 36 hours. . . .
November 2nd, 2009 at 1:56 PM ^
fwiw i think it's the same reason MSU was a 3-7 pt favorite despite having a weak pedigree going into the game. Wisconsin was looked at as a match to get them fired up for the next week. Vegas likely sees this UM team as better than their performances against two ultra mobile qbs and thinks Purdue is a weaker imitation. that and a pissed off team could explain the point margin.
or they confused Pur/UM with a confused happy cat AIM convo and awarded a resounding pos bang
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:28 AM ^
Yeah. Pretty much how I saw it to. I figured starting off at -3 or -4 for home field and then moving because I believe
Purdue +3 or +4 will get a lot of action based solely on how they performed at osu so they would move it to later get more action for Mich.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:39 AM ^
I would expect more money to come in EARLY on the Purdue +7 and then buying another 0.5-2 points to get the individual bettor to Purdue > +7.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:32 AM ^
but I think I heard on Fox Sports radio's morning show last week that according to the Bally's book, this is the worst Vegas has done on college football in more than a decade.
I wouldn't expect the line to change much actually as Michigan being down probably isn't getting the play that they usually got, and Purdue is not an inspiring opponent (they just got waxed 37-0 against a non-vintage Wiscy team) or one with big money donors in a gambling city (Illinois and Chicago) that will put enough volume on the board to change the number significantly. I think the line probably settles out at Michigan -5 to -4.5 as the smart guys take the big number and Purdue but stop when it gets significantly below a TD.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:44 AM ^
The lines I am seeing are UM -3.5 over Purdue.
I think that -7 is from Las Vegas Sports Consulants. They just suggest what the line should be. Most of the time they're virtually the same as the exact line. Maybe a half point in either direction.
Anyway, oddsmakers took one look at -7 and laughed. No way they get any Michigan money with it that high. So, they came up with their own plan.
Pretty much seeing it -3.5 everywhere.
I doubt any books actually listed this anywhere close to 7 for even a minute.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:55 AM ^
Might have been what it was. I saw it mentioned somewhere else, and a quick glance at whatever site it was had -7. Thought it seemed strange.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:52 AM ^
That's why I never lay money down on any of my favorite teams. I tend to use good judgement when lookings at stats and trying to analyze any game I am interested in and try to make an un-biased pick but I learned a long long time (and a lot of money) ago that betting on your teams is not a rational move. I have to much of a vested interest in Michigan to ever attempt at making a impartial pick.
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:21 AM ^
if line remains the same. RR must have a bowl birth, even if the Pizza Bowl, and this may very well be his last chance to get it this year. Purdue will be facing a Michigan team playing for their season, and I personally think that what could have gone wrong since ND has, and the ball will now bounce right if only for a week. Not a prediction thread I know, but I'll get it out of the way early. Defense bends a lot without completely breaking at all, one turnover, balanced M attack. UM 27 Purdue 13. I start packing for Ford Field and a classic Wolverine v. Chippewa matchup.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:01 AM ^
Contrary to many people's opinions, I'm liking our chance at shocking Wisconsin. People keep talking about maybe upsetting OSU. I don't see any chance of that happening. Wisconsin, on the other hand, my gut wants to tell me 35% chance of winning.
I expect less trouble for our secondary, but we'll need the LBs to be able to cover TEs. That's the only major worry I have on defense. (Woo less mobile QB!)
That said, Wisconsin's defense is pretty damn good. Schofield will demand double teams all day. He's definitely the main reason their rush defense is ~#25 in the nation.
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:30 AM ^
VI still has us listed as -7 as an opening line, but yes, -3 seems more reasonable. I go with others in not betting on my teams, but anything greater than -3 would have me thinking Boilers.
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:35 AM ^
" but the money is on us? that's the most encouraging thing i've heard in the last 36 hours. . . ."
Weren't we -7.5 against Illinois and look how that turned out! Don't be surprised if the line shifts to Michigan +1-+3 as I don't see many people taking Michigan on this bet at all. Watching the last couple weeks I wouldn't take Michigan until it was at least Michigan +10 and even then I would be skeptical. Illinois is an awful team and they destroyed us. Purdue is not so much an awful team so they should also handle M.
RR can save the season with a last game win over TUOS. Otherwise I think we settle for 5-7 for the year. The entire team is in disarray and the coaches don't know how to turn it around.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:09 AM ^
You can't compare Illinois to Purdue imo. 2 totally different teams. As posted on other threads, Juice is not as bad as he has played and Benn is a good tailback. I am not ready to say Purdue handles us because the Illini did. This should be an interesting game. We will definitely be playing with our backs against a wall Sat.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:24 AM ^
Benn is a wide receiver...
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:31 AM ^
This game is a don't touch bet. We all could make pro and con predictions on which way the game will end. Problem is, both M and Purdue have had big ups, and big downs so far. Kind of hard to guess based on those track records.
Close one to call, but's let's hope we right the ship on Saturday. I personally think that we will. Just no $$ on the game.
P.S. To Formerlyanonymous, I'm not as optimistic on our chances of beating Wisconsin; the only thing that has stopped them this season is a stout D(OSU and Iowa). Not M's strong suit.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:38 AM ^
Yeah, the 35% gut reaction is the center of most of my optimism. Looking over their NCAA.com stat page makes me want to drop it to 17.5%
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:54 PM ^
It appears folks were betting Michigan with the spread at 3.5. Most of the lines have jumped to 5.5 or 6 in the last 24 hours.