Early Thoughts On Michigan Basketball?
Now that you've seen Michigan in 8 games, plus exhibition...what are your thoughts?
IMO, we're exactly where I thought we'd be. Still searching for our identity, but starting to find roles for guys.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:35 PM ^
Same as before the season. You don't lose the best player in college basketball and not feel it.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:39 PM ^
December 4th, 2013 at 8:38 PM ^
December 4th, 2013 at 8:44 PM ^
December 4th, 2013 at 8:46 PM ^
1. 18-12 in the B1G either likely means a .500 record in the league or a win over Arizona
2. This team is going to improve (even if GRIII doesn't) just off experience alone. They're all experiencing so much for the first time.
I don't think it was a shock that we played better in the 2nd half vs. Duke than the first. Or that we lost our first big road game. Or that we lost our first championship game.
It's tough doing things for the first time...you just don't know what to expect. ESPECIALLY when you don't have defined roles. Who's the 1st option? Stauskas? LeVert? McGary? All of that will get sorted out. Minutes and a rotation will get sorted out.
Last year we went into the season knowing the lineup, we knew Spike was going to spell Trey right before a media timeout and get about 6 minutes a game. We knew LeVert and Vogrich were going to fight for those minutes behind THJ and Stauskas who were the clear starters. We need the big man rotation.
Literally the only things that changed last year was Vogrich lost his minutes to LeVert and Morgan was replaced by McGary. 2 FRESHMAN...got better as they gained experience.
This year, 2 FRESHMAN will get better as they gain experience. But you don't have experienced leaders in Burke and THJ to carry you in the meantime.
December 4th, 2013 at 11:40 PM ^
I completely agree with what you said. But I don't get how people keep saying Trey was an "experienced leader". Really all of our sophomores have more experience in comparison to what he had at this point last year. Someone has to just step up and be vocal.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:23 PM ^
he doesn't look improved at all. I expected more authority from MdGary, Horford and Morgan as well; this bunch also doesn't seem like they've improved much either, am I being too negative? I think the team will take a big step forward as the year continues; the younger guys, Walton and Irvin in particular will find their niche, while I am really excited to see how much Caris continues to improve. All that said, I guess we're about where I thought they would be record-wise but I expected the loses to be more competitive.
December 5th, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^
I think McGary looks very good but Michigan isn't getting him the ball enough. Everyone wants to create off the dribble or pick n roll then dish it to him but why not just feed him in the post when you have the advantage (e.g. Duke)? I know he typically hasn't been a post up player but I think he can be and when your shooters are being guarded closely, why not dump it into him at either the high or low post? I agree that Horgord and Morgan have been a bit disappointing.
I will agree that GRIII is not being aggressive enough. He looks the same as last year - not bad but not the growth we hoped for.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:38 PM ^
I said yesterday that the games so far this season don't mean much to me. If we lost to Duke by 20, I wasn't going to worry. I'll judge this year's team in February...or basically from @ MSU (Jan. 25) to vs. MSU (Feb. 23). THAT month is where we'll see what kind of team we have.
Now we need to win the games we absolutely should win, but this team is going to improve so drastically (as a team) throughout the year that it kind of makes this point in the season...boring. Last year, we knew what we had, so these early games were GREAT barometers for where we were going to be in March. The biggest difference between last year's team now and in the NCAA tournament was really only McGary.
A win over Duke wouldn't have meant much to me either, it would've given a lot of false hope, IMO. This team is going to have highs and lows as they grow, develop a chemistry, define roles and "find themselves." That all takes time.
Everyone outside of Morgan and Horford has a new role. On top of that, you have two freshman playing key minutes and BIG minutes. Again, it's going to take time. It'll take time for Duke (hence their losses), it'll take time for Kansas. We're in that same boat. MSU is where we were, they had all offseason and preseason with guys who've been there. They know each other, they know their roles and what everyone brings to the table.
I like watching this team with no expectations. Last year if we would've lost to NC St. or KSU I would've sensed a little trouble. This year losing to Charlotte and ISU does nothing for me (at THIS point in the season). If we grow like we should, this team in February would beat this team in December by double digits. It also wouldn't lose to Charlotte or ISU.
That said, I think our run starts now...I thought preseason we'd have 3 losses by now (although I figured one would be to VCU). But I'm going to say we kick start our season with a win over Arizona and then a win over Stanford in Brooklyn in a similar game to the ISU game, but this time we come out on top. From there, we probably drop a game somewhere, but it wouldn't surprise me if we kept the winning streak going until we went to EL in late January.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:46 PM ^
I think the only bad loss (and that's debatable) is to Charlotte. I think a win over Arizona in the comfort of Crisler kicks off a good run. I think we're looking at 13-3 by the time we go to the Kohl Center on Jan 18.
I just assume we lose to Wisconsin, especially there (haven't won there since 1999 right?).
December 4th, 2013 at 8:47 PM ^
This is the year!
December 4th, 2013 at 8:42 PM ^
You are a thread starting machine.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:50 PM ^
Who cares...?
You have enough points, you can start your own if you'd like.
You don't have to post in these threads. It's not like they're OT or meaningless. It's discussion about Michigan Athletics on a site called MGoBlog. What a concept.
If you don't like it: http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/ot-united-state-pop-2013 ...feel free to talk about DJ Earworm.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:52 PM ^
Fiesty.
December 4th, 2013 at 10:24 PM ^
Mr. Yost, I'm not sure that was an insult.
December 5th, 2013 at 9:33 AM ^
When I insult someone, there is no misunderstanding it. This was not one of those times.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:46 PM ^
I think we really need to see more of Caris LeVert. He's proven throughout the early season that he is the only guy that is able to create off the dribble.
Hopefully Walton gets there and when Stauskas isn't option #1, then he can be more of a thread, but right now we do not have a shot creator other than McGary and LeVert.
More touches in the post would be nice for McGary - I thought yesterday we were unusually unlucky with offensive rebounds. It seemed every opportunity was just out of Mitch's reach.
My biggest worry is at PG. There's little depth and nobody that will force a quality defense to play honest.
All that said: We've looked very good defensively and we're ridiculously young. In Beilein I Trust.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:49 PM ^
Hurricane Spike. That is all.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:47 PM ^
December 4th, 2013 at 9:09 PM ^
December 4th, 2013 at 9:21 PM ^
December 4th, 2013 at 9:21 PM ^
No way to what? Were you replying to me or the NIT guy?
I think this is a Sweet 16 talent-level team and after that anyone can make a run or be upset.
December 4th, 2013 at 10:14 PM ^
It's tough to predict anything beyond a Sweet Sixteen berth because there are so many variables. Last year, Michigan had an elite team with the best player in college hoops and it still needed a dramatic comeback to get beyond the Sweet Sixteen. A tough draw, a poor shooting night, an unexpected injury, another team getting hot at the right time...a small sample size can skew any reasonable expectation.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:53 PM ^
It's not often that you see a Beilein team that looks less than the sum of its parts...But they've got major chemistry issues. With McGary rusty and Stauskas banged up we don't look like a tournament team. Worse than that, they're getting out-hustled.
There are lots of reasons it might(will) get better. But right now they're tough to watch.
December 4th, 2013 at 8:57 PM ^
December 4th, 2013 at 9:06 PM ^
December 4th, 2013 at 10:15 PM ^
Did you even watch that Iowa State game? He was anything but soft as that tomahawk dunk and his numerous drives will tell you.
December 5th, 2013 at 8:35 AM ^
The dude couldn't get the ball on offense. Period. He touched it maybe one or two times over the first 10 minutes of the game. That's it. I don't know how you can call that soft. Duke's defenders played in his jock all night. Maybe his ankle affected his ability to get open, or maybe Duke just completely sold out and didn't give him an inch of room (combo of both?). But I wouldn't call him soft.
This will be the recipe other teams will use to neutralize him, so it's up to our offensive scheme to get him the ball in creative ways (back door cuts, etc.).
December 4th, 2013 at 9:03 PM ^
Then we lose Stauskas as a 1st rounder, McGary, and GR3 as a 2nd rounders.
Spike, Walton, Irvin, Caris, and Horford come back and lead us to the promised land in 2014. Yes, I'm planning ahead.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:08 PM ^
Yeah I'm going to bet against all of that.
But if that mass exit were to happen, 2014-15 would be a lot like 1990-91.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:13 PM ^
4-6 seed range, most likely.
Why would those two leave for the second round?
That starting five would be more like the one-and-done 8 seed you speak of.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:19 PM ^
Stauskas as a 1st rounder, needs another year, that would help immensely. I bet Mitch and he are both back. GRIII should come back too, but that seems unlikely.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:05 PM ^
And Irvin is ginna morph in the offseason into a STAR
December 5th, 2013 at 8:37 AM ^
OK...not sure if you watched the Charlotte game or not, but Irvin logged huge minutes against Charlotte since GRIII was also hurt. Irvin unfortunately had a bad night shooting the rock, like almost everyone on the team.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:06 PM ^
I'm worried about who is going to lead this team. Trey took over games and guided this team last year with THJ as his trusty sidekick. Corey Person was a huge leader as well.
GR3 doesn't strike me as the vocal leader type. LeVert does for some reason though.
Fun fact: if Michigan starts Hurricane Spike at PG, it will be the first time since the Fab Five in 1992-93 that all Sophomores started.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:08 PM ^
They've started 4 of the 8 games so far this season with just abysmal shooting... like less than 25% from the field for most of the first half in those games.
Michigan also has the most athletic, yet invisible/disinterested NBA lottery pick ever.
Improvement by the freshmen will probably be offset by them getting worn down as the year goes on.
The team creeps closer to the bubble, Arizona is the last chance for a marquee non-conference victory, and there are a ton of good teams in the B1G - Iowa/Minnesota in addition to the elite group of MSU/OSU/Wisconsin - that are going to give the Wolverines fits.
The players have so much heart and never give up, they just lack that killer instinct and dig themselves huge holes. Hope they can back their way into the tourney and then make a big run.
SPORTS!
December 4th, 2013 at 9:09 PM ^
Obviously so young, but very slowly gaining maturity on the floor. McGary still has some time to go before he's in full playing shape and when he finally is we'll all see a big difference. Trust coach B to have them ready to roll by by March.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:12 PM ^
Granted, it is early in the season, so these estimates should be taken as quite approximate, but here is the estimated win probability and median predicted score for the remainder of the schedule (away games in bold):
|
Houston Bap
|
99%
|
83
|
51
|
|
Arizona
|
45%
|
67
|
69
|
|
Stanford
|
66%
|
74
|
70
|
|
Holy Cross
|
92%
|
76
|
62
|
|
Minnesota
|
40%
|
68
|
71
|
|
Northwestern
|
92%
|
73
|
58
|
|
Nebraska
|
73%
|
71
|
65
|
|
Penn St
|
82%
|
78
|
68
|
|
Wisconsin
|
30%
|
64
|
70
|
|
Iowa
|
64%
|
75
|
71
|
|
Michigan St
|
24%
|
64
|
72
|
|
Purdue
|
92%
|
78
|
63
|
|
Indiana
|
41%
|
67
|
70
|
|
Nebraska
|
89%
|
75
|
62
|
|
Iowa
|
37%
|
71
|
75
|
|
Ohio St
|
21%
|
60
|
69
|
|
Wisconsin
|
56%
|
68
|
66
|
|
Michigan St
|
49%
|
68
|
69
|
|
Purdue
|
81%
|
76
|
67
|
|
Minnesota
|
68%
|
71
|
66
|
|
Illinois
|
55%
|
63
|
61
|
|
Indiana
|
67%
|
71
|
66
|
December 4th, 2013 at 9:13 PM ^
As i always thought, i dont like belein system. teams that shoot three usually dont go any where, especially they dont even bother to rebound the ball. shooting three tram usually mean bad teams, u going to say last year, we had trey burke, once in a generstion player
December 4th, 2013 at 9:19 PM ^
Death to the three meme!!!!!!!
December 4th, 2013 at 9:16 PM ^
is they improve as the season progresses, I don't see a B1G title but I could see us getting 18-20 wins and between a 7-9 team in the tournament, a very dangerous team by then. I think by then McGary and Walton will be used to each other, that will take pressure of Stauskas. I think if everyone comes back besides GRIII, next year could be another B1G title and deep tourney run.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:21 PM ^
Michigan hoops makes me sad. I don't our play has been terrible, but it has been pretty disjointed. Youth and injuries haven't helped, but the team needs to play cleaner basketball than that. Last night made it very apparent that Trey Burke floated this team. Or atleast moreso than I would have liked to admit heading into the season.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:28 PM ^
I really, really hate people bashing on Jordan Morgan. Guy has done nothing but work his ass off and been a key defender despite being asked to do things (offensive threat) that are not his strengths. He was never some big-time recruit, he doesn't have the height to finish with ease among the other trees but he puts everything on the line all the time.
What does he get in return? People calling him a "mess," "not talented," and things that caused me to completely give up game threads for basketball.
Morgan does the same things that Graham Brown did for Michigan basketball, yet Morgan is demonized and Brown was revered. Makes me wonder why.
December 4th, 2013 at 10:14 PM ^
December 4th, 2013 at 10:21 PM ^
I get annoyed when people keep insisting that Morgan needs to play because "oh he's a leader" or "oh, he's done so much in the past".
The best players should play. Period. Right now, that does not include Morgan. Given the new NCAA rules, it's tough for him to take charges. He does not have the length to alter shots at the rim (watch how easily Duke was able to finish at the hoop when he was at the game). He is a decent rebounder at best and can get pushed around inside.
I don't deny that he has grit and has made big plays in the past. But if you want him to play, make arguments about tangible impact he brings to the team. Matt Vogrich worked his ass off for the team too, and he was benched last year. Corey Person and Matt Bartelstein worked as hard as anybody. That does not entitle you to playing time.
McGary also "puts everything on the line" and he actually scores and blocks shots and stuff. I've never had a problem with Horford's effort, and his length and rebounding ability help defensively. Right now, there are very few arguments to suggest that MOrgan has a greater tangible impact on the actual quality of basketball played by Michigan over those two, and thus it's valid to suggest that his minutes should be cut or eliminated at this point.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:22 PM ^
We should have been fast breaking at nearly every opportunity yesterday night. And at times, we did. But then Coach B decided to try some different lineups and we had no chemistry.
Michigan is a run-and-gun finesse team. That is what they are. And they are great at it and fun to watch when they do it. Mitch is a runner and loves to do it, Glenn is great in the fast break, and we have shooters. But our half-court is usually embarrasing, our bigs aren't skilled at the big man game, and teams that key in on Stauskas will shut us down. Witness last night.
We can beat a lot of good teams through run-and-gun. Coach B needs to unleash this... or be happy with an 18 win year in which we win every game we're probably supposed to and lose the rest. And on the road, this team often resembles Michigan football.
December 4th, 2013 at 10:08 PM ^
December 4th, 2013 at 9:26 PM ^
no OCC big wins...Arizona and Stanfod are Musts because from what Ive seen were looking at 10-12 losses...Belien teams do not play well on the road...We need a couple of Good wins OCC or we are in serious bubble land..Wed need a 12-6 Big Ten record ...any of you see a 12-6 league record in our future?
GRIII wtf? what has happened? He needs to be benched and Irvin start..If you are going to constantly just stand around doing NOTHING give some else a chance..
Albrecht needs to play more..when hes in the game things happen.
Levert is the only one Ive seen playing like he WANTS to win...hes awkward though and tends to turn the ball over alot..He kept us in the Duke game and his effort was far above everyone elses..Rest of team looked soft, unenthusiastic just going thru the motions
McGary gets a pass...Id like to see more of his freshman enthusiasm..hes seems reserved and uncomfortable..we need his usual HUSTLE..
Maybe its the NC hangover..Ive seen it often where the following year the team just goes through the motions waiting for the next tournament..I think we are going to be a bubble team all year based on 3 losses already..thats why Arizona and Stanford are MUST WIN games
We may be better years end and Im SURE we will BUT it may be to late to get into the tournament..Beating AZ would certainly help the cause in the biggest of ways
December 4th, 2013 at 9:31 PM ^
At the least, we have to split that series. Then hope for more in B10 play. But there is no question we've lost some big OOC games and are not looking great overall.
And I think, to your points, that GRIII and McGary are playing a bit too much "mind games"... they are over-thinking this. They are reactive not pro-active... as if they are thinking a ton about how their draft stock will go up or down based on a play. If they just play with reckless abandon, good things will happen.
This is why the run-and-gun is our identity. Yes, we may turn it over a bit more. Yes, there will be some shootouts - even shoot out losses. But overall - how are we going to win??? Through a run and gun, grab and go offense. Our half court is pathetic usually.
December 4th, 2013 at 9:27 PM ^
Both basketball and football have become gutless on the road. When did this happen? No, I don't mean "on the road" as in basketball tourneys in Puerto Rico. I mean on the road as in @ Michigan State, or @ Duke or even @ Iowa.
Look - there is no question that road games are difficult, anywhere. But when did we become gutless? I mean literally gutless - as in, no fight, no swag, no passion? When it comes to football, we are absolutely putrid on the road. Have been now for basically 6 years. And basketball? Yes, we're a bit better, I guess. But witness last year's punishment @MSU. Or our heartbreaker @Wisconsin. Or the loss @Ohio State (which was close, granted). When did we become so gutless? I don't mind the close losses as much... as long as the team looks like it is grinding and fighting for everything, they can walk away proud.
But when did UM lose its swag on the road? When Chris and Jalen and them left? Geez...