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Early predictions from a Rivals poster...

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:01 PM
#1
umbig11
umbig11's picture
Joined: 07/21/2010
MGoPoints: 90363
Early predictions from a Rivals poster...

Slow day on the boards. Anyway, I hate this time of year and waiting for college football, but here is a post from a Rivals board that is getting a lot of debate. Early sesaon predictions. Everyone is responding about the ND, Rutgers, PSU & NW results. It seems like those are the swing games. I think we go at least 3-1 against that group! Mich 35 App St 10; Mich 24 ND 27; Mich 42 Miami OH 10; Mich 31 Utah 17; Mich 34 Minny 21; Mich 27 Rutgers 20; Mich 24 PSU 28; Mich 21 MSU 24; Mich 38 Ind 21; Mich 24 NW 17; Mich 35 MD 24; Mich 20 OSU 31. How many days away before I get to tailgate at AAGO???!!!

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:05 PM
#2
Wolverine Devotee
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Joined: 06/29/2009
MGoPoints: 126258
Rutgers is a swing game? Uh

Rutgers is a swing game? Uh

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June 3rd, 2014 at 8:01 PM
(Reply to #32) #3
Ron Utah
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Joined: 02/28/2012
MGoPoints: 7425
Maryl

Maryland will give us more trouble than Rutgers.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 8:56 PM
(Reply to #32) #4
Pit2047
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Joined: 06/12/2013
MGoPoints: 4337
Hey

We were a 33 yard FG away from being 3-0 in those games

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June 3rd, 2014 at 9:42 PM
(Reply to #63) #5
phork
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Joined: 11/01/2009
MGoPoints: 4486
And a lot less from losing to

And a lot less from losing to UConn and Akron.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:06 PM
#6
Giff4484
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Joined: 08/16/2009
MGoPoints: 2094
I dont see PSU beating us at

The Big House at night after the luck storm they got last year. Bill was a good coach for PSU and I don't think Franklin is in that league. Plus Nuss has seen Franklin before and vice versa and PSU depth chart is finally showing the sanctions.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:55 PM
(Reply to #3) #7
James Burrill Angell
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Joined: 08/12/2009
MGoPoints: 12913
Concur

I concur.

1) It was at their place last year. Its home this year.

2) Allen Robinson basically took that game from us and he's gone and I don't see a replacement of that caliber.

3) New coach for PSU.

4) We had multiple shots to win last year and blew them. Is that really going to happen twice in a row?

I don't agree with that prediction. I see somewhere between 10-2 and 8-4 with the Notre Dame game and possibly Northwestern away being the swings.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:45 PM
(Reply to #27) #8
LJ
LJ's picture
Joined: 07/05/2008
MGoPoints: 17328
Re:

On point #4 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy.

I agree with your other points though.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 5:48 PM
(Reply to #39) #9
WolvinLA2
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Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 52761
I'm not sure if that's really

I'm not sure if that's really a gambler's fallacy.  It sounded like the OP was saying "We lost because X happened last year, and since X has a low probability of happening at all, it's unlikely it happens this year."  A Gambler's Fallacy would be "Because X happened last year, I bet it won't happen this year" suggesting they are not independent events.  But that's not how I took it.  I took it as "the unlikely event that led to our defeat last year likely won't happen again this year, simply because it's an unlikely event."

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June 3rd, 2014 at 8:07 PM
(Reply to #27) #10
Double-D
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Joined: 12/21/2013
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Borges took it.

Not disputing the damage Robinson did but Al Borges took that game and handed it to PSU in the last 4 minutes with his turtle moves.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:06 PM
#11
Decatur Jack
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Joined: 09/20/2011
MGoPoints: 7491
Well, at least the MSU loss

Well, at least the MSU loss was competitive.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:09 PM
(Reply to #4) #12
Erik_in_Dayton
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Joined: 12/03/2008
MGoPoints: 34220
Shoot, Michigan would have won if not for...

...those terrible holding calls.  And how did an alpaca get on the field on Michigan's final drive?  Are we supposed to believe MSU didn't plan that? 

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:40 PM
(Reply to #10) #13
Vote_Crisler_1937
Joined: 11/08/2011
MGoPoints: 4018
He has alopecia!

Let's ease up on the poor kid.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:03 PM
(Reply to #23) #14
Erik_in_Dayton
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Joined: 12/03/2008
MGoPoints: 34220
Say this three times fast:

The apoplectic alpaca has alopecia.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:20 PM
(Reply to #28) #15
jtmc33
Joined: 04/15/2009
MGoPoints: 8865
If I hear some Sparty say

If I hear one more Sparty say that their apoplectic alpaca with alopecia was only a 2-star recruit that was coached up to be an NFL caliber player I'm going to lose it...

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June 3rd, 2014 at 5:44 PM
(Reply to #34) #16
jabberwock
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Joined: 07/04/2008
MGoPoints: 44189
fucking alpacas

they're the Justin Biebers of the camelids.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:07 PM
#17
ThadMattasagoblin
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Joined: 08/24/2011
MGoPoints: 36055
I think our defense will be

I think our defense will be much better than that. We'll be allowing 10-20 points per game except for Ohio and ND. I also think we'll only score 30 points at max outside of the ASU and Miami games.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:34 PM
(Reply to #11) #18
umbig11
umbig11's picture
Joined: 07/21/2010
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I laughed out loud!

Thanks!

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:07 PM
#19
jericho
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Joined: 07/04/2009
MGoPoints: 2699
So, this is just some poster

So, this is just some poster on another board's opinion? Or is this your opinion? When in your post do you cut to his post? Does he have any inside knowledge about Michigan or is he just some chump? Why should I care what he thinks? Who am I? What is going on?

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:44 PM
(Reply to #6) #20
umbig11
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Joined: 07/21/2010
MGoPoints: 90363
Just read it over there.

Not my predictions at all, but man is it fun to speculate in June!

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:07 PM
#21
TheBlueAbides
Joined: 01/20/2011
MGoPoints: 2769
You say you have us going 3-1

You say you have us going 3-1 against that group but we go 1-3 against that group in the predictions?

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:45 PM
(Reply to #7) #22
umbig11
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Joined: 07/21/2010
MGoPoints: 90363
ND, Rutgers. PSU, & NW.....

We better go 3-1 against that group!

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June 3rd, 2014 at 5:51 PM
(Reply to #7) #23
WolvinLA2
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Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 52761
Those predictions actually

Those predictions actually have us going 2-2 in that group.  He has us beating NW and Rutgers.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:13 PM
#24
rob f
rob f's picture
Joined: 11/11/2010
MGoPoints: 76808
Slow day

on what boards??  This one seems to be pretty active.

Maybe you meant slow people are making predictions today on Rival's boards.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:09 PM
#25
ThadMattasagoblin
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Joined: 08/24/2011
MGoPoints: 36055
I would bet all of my money

I would bet all of my money that Michigan beats PSU this year and that's from my head and not my heart. They no longer have Allen Robinson and a lot of other key players plus we barely lost to them at their place at night.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:50 PM
(Reply to #9) #26
ND Sux
Joined: 10/01/2009
MGoPoints: 14979
Seconded!

Even before I saw your post I was going to write "there's no f#cking way we lose to PSU at home after last year's debacle.  Plus we have them at NIGHT in TBH for a change...they ALWAYS seem to get us at night on their turf. 

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:17 PM
#27
BayWolves
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Joined: 06/21/2011
MGoPoints: 8795
There is no way

There is no way we lose to The Fig Things Irish this year or to the MSU Inmates for that matter.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:25 PM
(Reply to #12) #28
CWoodIsMyBoiii
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Joined: 12/29/2009
MGoPoints: 1563
The only way I could see us

The only way I could see us losing is if they score more points than us. That's the only way it happens. But besides that, you're completely right.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:21 PM
#29
chunkums
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 13668
I am fully in Brady Hoke's

I am fully in Brady Hoke's corner, but if we lose to Penn State at home this year, that will cause me to repeatedly type UNACCEPTABLE FOR MICHIGAN MAN NO HEADSET FIRE BRADY JOKE on this here message board. 

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:21 PM
#30
sLideshowBob
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Joined: 12/17/2013
MGoPoints: 3412
(No subject)

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:22 PM
#31
UofM Die Hard i...
UofM Die Hard in Seattle's picture
Joined: 03/10/2011
MGoPoints: 4702
GDamn

I dont know how I am going to take those MSU and Ohio losses again. 

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:29 PM
(Reply to #15) #32
BayWolves
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Joined: 06/21/2011
MGoPoints: 8795
Road wins

Road wins are absolutely critical this year. I do not know why this team struggles when it travels but reworking road trips needs to be a priority for Hoke & co. The team needs a new approach and I hope someone isn't stubbornly sticking to some travel routine that is proven to fail.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:45 PM
(Reply to #18) #33
althegreat23
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Joined: 05/30/2011
MGoPoints: 2078
Borges was extremley

Borges was extremley conservative on the road.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:28 PM
#34
Hannibal.
Hannibal.'s picture
Joined: 09/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6297
If that PSU result is true,

If that PSU result is true, then Hoke should be cleaning out his desk the Monday morning after.  Penn State is probably going to bottom out this year or next from their sanctions and their crappy recruiting.  We need to pummel them.   

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June 3rd, 2014 at 6:08 PM
(Reply to #17) #35
WolvinLA2
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Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 52761
I agree.  I think we have our

I agree.  I think we have our way with Penn State this year.  They will be thin on defense.  They have two good RBs, but a poor, young offensive line.  Hackenberg will be good but he'll have few weapons to throw to.  Lucky for them, we play them pretty early on because one or two injuries will really cripple them.  

Essentially, our running game and their running game will be a wash.  Our passing game will be much better than theirs because Gardner > Hackenberg and our receivers are much better as well.  Their D will be decent, but not as good as ours.  And they're thin on the DL so we can wear them our.  I think we win by double digits.  

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:32 PM
#36
bronxblue
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 59255
So a response thread to a

So a response thread to a prediction thread on another site?

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:41 PM
(Reply to #19) #37
umbig11
umbig11's picture
Joined: 07/21/2010
MGoPoints: 90363
Why not?

It makes for a good discussion. Early season predictions are a dime a dozen, but why not talk about it? Are we an 8-4 team or something very different? It's hard to stick your neck out after last year and say we will win 9 or 10. Yet, it is easy to say we won't be 7-6 again!

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:19 PM
(Reply to #24) #38
bronxblue
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 59255
Because this has been

Because this has been discussed innumerable times already.  Also, it's June.  People are predicting results for the next 3 months despite there being no practices, no player changes (save for injuries and recovery), no games, etc.  It's just another forum post about the same damn thing - people thinking the team will win 7-8-9 games.  That's it.  

I'm not trying to knock you; you're allowed to post whatever you want.  But it's a post commenting about another post, on another site, on a topic that everybody has talked about.  But clearly there is still a subset of people who want to talk about it, for some reason.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:26 PM
(Reply to #35) #39
umbig11
umbig11's picture
Joined: 07/21/2010
MGoPoints: 90363
No problem

It just made for good discussion. I get the rehash though....it's June! I can't wait for fall practices and football.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 11:35 PM
(Reply to #37) #40
bronxblue
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 59255
I hear ya.  No harm no foul

I hear ya.  No harm no foul getting a stir crazy.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:37 PM
#41
Tuebor
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Joined: 03/14/2011
MGoPoints: 15353
Utah, PSU, and IU have bye

Utah, PSU, and IU have bye weeks before playing us.  I think I'm irrationally worried about those games but maybe not.  We should be 3-0 in these home games but stranger things have happened.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:06 PM
(Reply to #22) #42
umbig11
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Joined: 07/21/2010
MGoPoints: 90363
The PSU bye week is the one that will be tough

I think we beat Utah or IU no matter what.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 6:56 PM
(Reply to #29) #43
WinThyGame
Joined: 03/04/2014
MGoPoints: 246
Utah could be a tricky game

Utah could be a tricky game if we come out sluggish. They return a good chunk of their starters and have a solid amount of talent, especially their quarterback

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:07 PM
#44
maize-blue
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Joined: 01/10/2013
MGoPoints: 30169
If this team only puts up 35

If this team only puts up 35 on App. St., I think it would be fair to commence panic.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:07 PM
#45
not TOM BRADY
not TOM BRADY's picture
Joined: 06/02/2012
MGoPoints: 23276
We

We havent even got the fall camp hype yet. Most of us will have sky high expectations after we hear Freddy Canteen is the next Mario Manningham and Chris Wormley is going to be the secind coming of Julius Peppers. My prediction is this: They will win this year, because its about damn time.  

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:11 PM
#46
TruBluMich
TruBluMich's picture
Joined: 08/03/2011
MGoPoints: 4496
Trying to remember what I

Trying to remember what I predicted in the other 5 prediction threads.....



I wont make any predictions, because I have no idea what this years team is going to play like. I know one thing however, there's no way I'm going to speculate that Michigan looses to ND, MSU and OSU. PSU? That's just crazy talk, there is no way I'm going to guess that PSU comes in under the lights and wins.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:20 PM
#47
Hannibal.
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Joined: 09/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6297
I could easily see Utah

I could easily see Utah beating us.  They have been a really tough out for a long time and I think that they have a bye week before us. 

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:49 PM
(Reply to #36) #48
Mr Miggle
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Joined: 10/07/2010
MGoPoints: 31290
Bye weeks in the early season

are a disadvantage. I'd rather have an extra game under our belt. Remember all the angst over ND scheduling a game before our matchup one year?

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June 3rd, 2014 at 5:39 PM
(Reply to #41) #49
rob f
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Joined: 11/11/2010
MGoPoints: 76808
I seem to recall

ND doing that dance at least a few times.  For awhile, it seemed that it was a semi-annual ritual for Michigan and Bo/Mo/Lloyd to revise our schedule to counteract ND's moves of rewriting their schedule in preparation for the Michigan game.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 5:08 PM
(Reply to #42) #50
Erik_in_Dayton
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Joined: 12/03/2008
MGoPoints: 34220
They may have used too small a sample size, but...

...here's a Wall Street Journal article on that.  Between 2002 and 2010(ish), BCS teams won 48% of their conference games when coming off of a bye.

 

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703673604575550133637891028

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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:43 PM
#51
Swazi
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Joined: 08/13/2010
MGoPoints: 7439
I have high doubts we're going to lose to Penn

I have high doubts we're going to lose to Penn State this year.

They needed a last second bomb over a rookie CB to for OT. And that was at Happy Valley.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 5:06 PM
#52
marco dane
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Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 3090
FINALLY!!!

A prediction thread that's atleast...optimistic.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 7:41 PM
(Reply to #48) #53
allintime23
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Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 15069
They won't.

They won't.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 7:02 PM
#54
MGoStrength
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Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 5330
PSU?

Anyone really think UM loses at home in a night game to PSU?  They should have won that game last year on multiple occasions and Happy Valley is not an easy place to play.  Hackenberg will be improved, but he played a good game already last year.  I don't see them running the ball as well again next season.  I also don't see them getting as many big pass plays without Robinson.  I expect UM's offense to be a bit more balanced, but generally the defense will be much stingier at home in a night game...and bringing everyone back basically.  I see that as a victory.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 7:41 PM
(Reply to #53) #55
allintime23
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Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 15069
I don't but I also didn't see

I don't but I also didn't see us losing last year to them.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 7:43 PM
#56
allintime23
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Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 15069
I think we win in East

I think we win in East Lansing. I think it's a game in late November as well. If it's not hopefully the next coach will beat rivals. Those games are all that matter and they both need to be won, on the road or not.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 7:49 PM
(Reply to #56) #57
Perkis-Size Me
Joined: 11/30/2011
MGoPoints: 40818
You think we win in EL? I'll

You think we win in EL? I'll have what you're having, please.



Seriously, did you not see the beating we took last year? What evidence do you have to suggest we'll beat them this year?

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June 3rd, 2014 at 8:21 PM
(Reply to #58) #58
BigBlue02
Joined: 06/29/2009
MGoPoints: 11762
If we know anything, it's

If we know anything, it's that the way a team plays the previous year will determine the games the following year. That's why Michigan State had a .500 record last year and didn't win a home Big 10 game, just like they did the year before. No change at all. That's why I like to use last year's results to predict upcoming games. 

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June 3rd, 2014 at 8:36 PM
(Reply to #56) #59
MGoStrength
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Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 5330
Next coach?

I want to beat the rivals as much as the next guy, but the reality of the o-line is going to make it very difficult to beat those teams on the road.  I can't imagine if Hoke loses to the rivals in close games, but still manages 8 or 9 wins that he gets canned.  The o-line situation wasn't really helped last year, but it is also partly the fault of the previous regime.  Hoke deserves the chance to coach this team in 2015 and 2016 unless major disapointments happen...like winning less than 7 games and/or getting blown out by the rivals.  Close losses won't get him fired IMO.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 7:47 PM
#60
Perkis-Size Me
Joined: 11/30/2011
MGoPoints: 40818
Only a 35-10 W against App

Only a 35-10 W against App State? If we don't put up 35 in the 1st Qtr alone, we've got a serious problem. I know nothing will ever erase '07, but we'd better beat the living hell out of them.



If App State leads at any point in the game, even after an initial 3-0 field goal, we've got a serious problem. If App State manages to do the impossible (again), Hoke had better not be allowed to leave the stadium without getting his pink slip.

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June 3rd, 2014 at 10:38 PM
#61
Double-D
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Joined: 12/21/2013
MGoPoints: 24017
UofM MSU over under at 8.5.

Chris Andrews a Vegas bookmaker has both UM and MSU over under at 8.5 wins. MSU is very beatable this year with their losses on D and the o-line. UM will be stronger at every position on the D this year and that will win games much like MSU's D saved their butts last year. MSU's O still has much to prove.

http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2014/06/legendary_nevada_bookmak...

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June 4th, 2014 at 11:54 AM
#62
nowicki2005
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Joined: 06/28/2011
MGoPoints: 814
If we lose

every game to our rivals....that would not be good. if anything we have to beat MSU.

Ohio has always hated us and at least respected us but I don't think they think we are that good.

MSU gas always thought they don't get any respect in the state and nationally, and that they could hang with us, but now they've just been dominant against us.

ND sucks. I always feel like that game can always go either way. its not like a super strong rivalry hate either.

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June 4th, 2014 at 12:21 PM
#63
WestSider
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Joined: 02/04/2011
MGoPoints: 5717
ND is always dangerous,

and I disagree, it is in fact a super strong hate rivalry for many in the UM administration, athletic department, and fanbase. By the way, I hate Notre Dame, for the record.

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