Slow day on the boards. Anyway, I hate this time of year and waiting for college football, but here is a post from a Rivals board that is getting a lot of debate. Early sesaon predictions. Everyone is responding about the ND, Rutgers, PSU & NW results. It seems like those are the swing games. I think we go at least 3-1 against that group! Mich 35 App St 10; Mich 24 ND 27; Mich 42 Miami OH 10; Mich 31 Utah 17; Mich 34 Minny 21; Mich 27 Rutgers 20; Mich 24 PSU 28; Mich 21 MSU 24; Mich 38 Ind 21; Mich 24 NW 17; Mich 35 MD 24; Mich 20 OSU 31. How many days away before I get to tailgate at AAGO???!!!
Early predictions from a Rivals poster...
Rutgers is a swing game? Uh
if not an outright loss. Look at last year's Uconn, PSU and NW games.
The Big House at night after the luck storm they got last year. Bill was a good coach for PSU and I don't think Franklin is in that league. Plus Nuss has seen Franklin before and vice versa and PSU depth chart is finally showing the sanctions.
1) It was at their place last year. Its home this year.
2) Allen Robinson basically took that game from us and he's gone and I don't see a replacement of that caliber.
3) New coach for PSU.
4) We had multiple shots to win last year and blew them. Is that really going to happen twice in a row?
I don't agree with that prediction. I see somewhere between 10-2 and 8-4 with the Notre Dame game and possibly Northwestern away being the swings.
On point #4 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy.
I agree with your other points though.
I'm not sure if that's really a gambler's fallacy. It sounded like the OP was saying "We lost because X happened last year, and since X has a low probability of happening at all, it's unlikely it happens this year." A Gambler's Fallacy would be "Because X happened last year, I bet it won't happen this year" suggesting they are not independent events. But that's not how I took it. I took it as "the unlikely event that led to our defeat last year likely won't happen again this year, simply because it's an unlikely event."
Not disputing the damage Robinson did but Al Borges took that game and handed it to PSU in the last 4 minutes with his turtle moves.
Well, at least the MSU loss was competitive.
...those terrible holding calls. And how did an alpaca get on the field on Michigan's final drive? Are we supposed to believe MSU didn't plan that?
Let's ease up on the poor kid.
The apoplectic alpaca has alopecia.
If I hear one more Sparty say that their apoplectic alpaca with alopecia was only a 2-star recruit that was coached up to be an NFL caliber player I'm going to lose it...
they're the Justin Biebers of the camelids.
I think our defense will be much better than that. We'll be allowing 10-20 points per game except for Ohio and ND. I also think we'll only score 30 points at max outside of the ASU and Miami games.
So, this is just some poster on another board's opinion? Or is this your opinion? When in your post do you cut to his post? Does he have any inside knowledge about Michigan or is he just some chump? Why should I care what he thinks? Who am I? What is going on?
Not my predictions at all, but man is it fun to speculate in June!
You say you have us going 3-1 against that group but we go 1-3 against that group in the predictions?
We better go 3-1 against that group!
Those predictions actually have us going 2-2 in that group. He has us beating NW and Rutgers.
on what boards?? This one seems to be pretty active.
Maybe you meant slow people are making predictions today on Rival's boards.
I would bet all of my money that Michigan beats PSU this year and that's from my head and not my heart. They no longer have Allen Robinson and a lot of other key players plus we barely lost to them at their place at night.
Even before I saw your post I was going to write "there's no f#cking way we lose to PSU at home after last year's debacle. Plus we have them at NIGHT in TBH for a change...they ALWAYS seem to get us at night on their turf.
There is no way we lose to The Fig Things Irish this year or to the MSU Inmates for that matter.
The only way I could see us losing is if they score more points than us. That's the only way it happens. But besides that, you're completely right.
I am fully in Brady Hoke's corner, but if we lose to Penn State at home this year, that will cause me to repeatedly type UNACCEPTABLE FOR MICHIGAN MAN NO HEADSET FIRE BRADY JOKE on this here message board.
I dont know how I am going to take those MSU and Ohio losses again.
Road wins are absolutely critical this year. I do not know why this team struggles when it travels but reworking road trips needs to be a priority for Hoke & co. The team needs a new approach and I hope someone isn't stubbornly sticking to some travel routine that is proven to fail.
Borges was extremley conservative on the road.
If that PSU result is true, then Hoke should be cleaning out his desk the Monday morning after. Penn State is probably going to bottom out this year or next from their sanctions and their crappy recruiting. We need to pummel them.
I agree. I think we have our way with Penn State this year. They will be thin on defense. They have two good RBs, but a poor, young offensive line. Hackenberg will be good but he'll have few weapons to throw to. Lucky for them, we play them pretty early on because one or two injuries will really cripple them.
Essentially, our running game and their running game will be a wash. Our passing game will be much better than theirs because Gardner > Hackenberg and our receivers are much better as well. Their D will be decent, but not as good as ours. And they're thin on the DL so we can wear them our. I think we win by double digits.
So a response thread to a prediction thread on another site?
It makes for a good discussion. Early season predictions are a dime a dozen, but why not talk about it? Are we an 8-4 team or something very different? It's hard to stick your neck out after last year and say we will win 9 or 10. Yet, it is easy to say we won't be 7-6 again!
Because this has been discussed innumerable times already. Also, it's June. People are predicting results for the next 3 months despite there being no practices, no player changes (save for injuries and recovery), no games, etc. It's just another forum post about the same damn thing - people thinking the team will win 7-8-9 games. That's it.
I'm not trying to knock you; you're allowed to post whatever you want. But it's a post commenting about another post, on another site, on a topic that everybody has talked about. But clearly there is still a subset of people who want to talk about it, for some reason.
Utah, PSU, and IU have bye weeks before playing us. I think I'm irrationally worried about those games but maybe not. We should be 3-0 in these home games but stranger things have happened.
I think we beat Utah or IU no matter what.
Utah could be a tricky game if we come out sluggish. They return a good chunk of their starters and have a solid amount of talent, especially their quarterback
If this team only puts up 35 on App. St., I think it would be fair to commence panic.
We havent even got the fall camp hype yet. Most of us will have sky high expectations after we hear Freddy Canteen is the next Mario Manningham and Chris Wormley is going to be the secind coming of Julius Peppers. My prediction is this: They will win this year, because its about damn time.
Trying to remember what I predicted in the other 5 prediction threads.....
I wont make any predictions, because I have no idea what this years team is going to play like. I know one thing however, there's no way I'm going to speculate that Michigan looses to ND, MSU and OSU. PSU? That's just crazy talk, there is no way I'm going to guess that PSU comes in under the lights and wins.
I could easily see Utah beating us. They have been a really tough out for a long time and I think that they have a bye week before us.
are a disadvantage. I'd rather have an extra game under our belt. Remember all the angst over ND scheduling a game before our matchup one year?
ND doing that dance at least a few times. For awhile, it seemed that it was a semi-annual ritual for Michigan and Bo/Mo/Lloyd to revise our schedule to counteract ND's moves of rewriting their schedule in preparation for the Michigan game.
...here's a Wall Street Journal article on that. Between 2002 and 2010(ish), BCS teams won 48% of their conference games when coming off of a bye.
I have high doubts we're going to lose to Penn State this year.
They needed a last second bomb over a rookie CB to for OT. And that was at Happy Valley.
A prediction thread that's atleast...optimistic.
Anyone really think UM loses at home in a night game to PSU? They should have won that game last year on multiple occasions and Happy Valley is not an easy place to play. Hackenberg will be improved, but he played a good game already last year. I don't see them running the ball as well again next season. I also don't see them getting as many big pass plays without Robinson. I expect UM's offense to be a bit more balanced, but generally the defense will be much stingier at home in a night game...and bringing everyone back basically. I see that as a victory.
I don't but I also didn't see us losing last year to them.
I think we win in East Lansing. I think it's a game in late November as well. If it's not hopefully the next coach will beat rivals. Those games are all that matter and they both need to be won, on the road or not.
You think we win in EL? I'll have what you're having, please.
Seriously, did you not see the beating we took last year? What evidence do you have to suggest we'll beat them this year?
If we know anything, it's that the way a team plays the previous year will determine the games the following year. That's why Michigan State had a .500 record last year and didn't win a home Big 10 game, just like they did the year before. No change at all. That's why I like to use last year's results to predict upcoming games.
I want to beat the rivals as much as the next guy, but the reality of the o-line is going to make it very difficult to beat those teams on the road. I can't imagine if Hoke loses to the rivals in close games, but still manages 8 or 9 wins that he gets canned. The o-line situation wasn't really helped last year, but it is also partly the fault of the previous regime. Hoke deserves the chance to coach this team in 2015 and 2016 unless major disapointments happen...like winning less than 7 games and/or getting blown out by the rivals. Close losses won't get him fired IMO.
Only a 35-10 W against App State? If we don't put up 35 in the 1st Qtr alone, we've got a serious problem. I know nothing will ever erase '07, but we'd better beat the living hell out of them.
If App State leads at any point in the game, even after an initial 3-0 field goal, we've got a serious problem. If App State manages to do the impossible (again), Hoke had better not be allowed to leave the stadium without getting his pink slip.
Chris Andrews a Vegas bookmaker has both UM and MSU over under at 8.5 wins. MSU is very beatable this year with their losses on D and the o-line. UM will be stronger at every position on the D this year and that will win games much like MSU's D saved their butts last year. MSU's O still has much to prove.
every game to our rivals....that would not be good. if anything we have to beat MSU.
Ohio has always hated us and at least respected us but I don't think they think we are that good.
MSU gas always thought they don't get any respect in the state and nationally, and that they could hang with us, but now they've just been dominant against us.
ND sucks. I always feel like that game can always go either way. its not like a super strong rivalry hate either.
and I disagree, it is in fact a super strong hate rivalry for many in the UM administration, athletic department, and fanbase. By the way, I hate Notre Dame, for the record.