According to Vegas Insider, it ranges from UM +5.5 to UM +6. I know it's a home game, but it seems a little low to me.
this may be of some local interest
I would take Wisconsin minus this figures sadly. :(
Then again, I'm a big proponent on betting against my team, because if they win, who cares about the cash; and if they lose, well, the requisite liquor is free.
I probably would too. But I'd be secretly hoping the sick run that emotional hedgers have been on the past two weeks would continue.
This sounds to me like a suckers bet. Last one of prominence I can remember is New England at Cleveland last week. While this isn't as glaring as the -4 that NE was giving, it may be being used to have people bet heavy on Wiscy, and may be a good omen...
The problem with betting against Michigan in this case is that Michigan could lose AND the opponent not cover. Say, a 3-point Wisconsin win, for instance.
This tactic really only works when your team is favored (in which case, you can even double dip and watch your team win a nailbiter, winning the bet in the process).
?. There is no problem with betting against Michigan in the case mentioned. You're assuming he's going to take the points. He can bet Wisconsin to win outright. He may have to put up, say 300 to make 150, but there is no problem betting against Michigan in the case mentioned.
So, why does this tactic only work when your team is favored???????????????
I've been cleaning up for a while now betting OSU against us in this manner. I put up 500 to make 200 last year. I'm more than willing to pay 500 for a Michigan win over OSU, and if they're going to beat us I'm going to get paid.
Yeah I'd bet the money line in every situation.
Well, if you're just betting the money line, obviously you can hedge regardless of who is favored.
OP was talking about betting against the spread, though. If he takes the -5.5 for Wisconsin and Wisconsin only wins by 3, then he loses his bet and Michigan loses the game. Hedge failed.
Seems about right to me. Also Vegas is smart and stuff.
was off base the past two weeks but they ended up being pretty damn close. I hope it remains as close as this line suggests.
I don't know about you, but I hope we win by 60.
about the game. But if it remains close in the 4th, I'll feel a lot better about our chances.
game. I hope it's close like the line suggests. If it's close we have a chance.
LOL truer words never spoken
If we can just keep from being down by more than 19 at the half and we will be just fine.
Actually that only works when your defense scores TD's and stops 2 point conversions and you have a QB who can break off 60 yard runs..
+5.5 and I'll lower you -3.5
Heart (Hart?) says woohoo Vegas says we have a chance. Mind says cash in the kids college fund and lay the points anything less than a full touchdown.
How about OSU -2.5 @ Iowa?
Classic film. Probably only seen it 100 or so times. The dichotomy of Swayz'e career is something. The man who made the world a better place with like Red Dawn, Point Break and Road House, also did lower quality work in Ghost and Dirty Dancing.
I think a lot of people would take exception to the statement that Dirty Dancing was lower quality work... myself included.
Has Vegas seen our defense or our turnover prone offense? Seriously.
Based on the last two weeks, Vegas seems to be very knowledgeable about Michigan football.
I know Wisc just killed Indiana, but Purdue did hang with them for 3 quarters and lead at half. Dont think any Vegas insider would make this point spread much higher, due to the inconsistencies of Wisc.
And of Michigan for that matter....
This is what vegas looks at.
Single game doesn't mean much, but the entire body of work is taken into consideration.
Michigan can score on anybody (even with 5 TO's, which won't occur every game, right?). Wisconsin has been up and down the entire season (as has michigan). Just because wisconsin has fewer losses doesn't mean they'll show up to an away game everyone is fully convinced they'll win.
To me, betting trends are more important than where they start. If they fall drastically like ND and USC last week, we're probably missing something (we are the emotional fan base after all).
I'm guessing few people are tracking this thread, but the spread has already dropped to -4. Maybe we are missing something ...
What about the over/under, given our offense and the catastrophe that occured yesterday in Madison?
67 + 83 = 150 / ? = 53.5 is my guess...
We're a 7-3 team and playing at home. Why are so many people here acting like this game is completely unwinnable? Wisconsin has been up and down this season, just like everyone else. Yeah, they beat OSU and destroyed IU, but they also barely scraped by ASU, were beaten soundly by MSU, and struggled with Purdue for three quarters. We may not win but I'll be surprised if we don't make a game of it.
Some of the difficulty against ASU has to be attributable to nightmare flashbacks caused by seeing Threet on the opposite sideline. If we take care of the ball and keep their backs in check, this could be interesting.
We need to get Threet on the side line for next week.
It must be done.
It's been so raw, so strange to have losing seasons, to drop games to Toledo, and to barely squeak by Indiana. It just feels different now. I don't feel particularly good about our chances against Wisky and Uof OS, despite our record and our potentially improving defense.
I don't feel entitled anymore as a Michigan football fan. Prior to 2008, I was disappointed when we dropped that first game of the year, thinking, "Oh well, no national championship. At least we can get to the Rose Bowl."
I remember thinking the Capital One Bowl and Gator Bowl were consolation prizes.
I remember believing that we had a top-5 team every year.
Now, it's almost like I'm waiting for someone to take two of our wins away. Don't get me wrong though; the last two years have been among the most exciting I can remember. I think it reminded me that your team doesn't win simply because it has on the winged helmets.
But it makes the wins more satisfying than ever, IMO.
|9-1||pts for 402||pts against 195|
Has us at +7.5 at a neutral site, so +4.5 at home. I'll be interested to see how the FEI shakes out, but I'd take Wisky -4.5, and I'm pretty sure I'd still take them at -5.5 without a whole lot of hesitation.
I hope I'm wrong.
If UM wins - awesome. Better Bowl, beat a highly ranked B10 team. People realize we are an upincoming team.
If UM loses - We got our 7 wins, what most of us hoped for and would be satisfied with, BUT most importantly - OSU doesn't get to the Rose Bowl, doesn't win the B10, annoying OSU fans can't brag about squat for a whole f-ing year.
There is no upside to losing. I couldn't care less how this game affects OSU. Focusing on that stuff is very Little Brother-ish.
Perhaps. The "little brother" stuff may have something to do with my older brother - rabid OSU fan, OSU grad, total UM hater - brags constantly about OSU. Or maybe it has to do with living in Ohio and being baraged by OSU fans all the time. A little schaudenfreude doesn't make me a little brother, just someone tired of obnoxious people.
And to be clear - I am hoping to death for a win, and always will. Just saying there is a little tiny upside if we can't pull it out.
Seeing a silver lining is one thing, but "toss up"? It's not close to a toss up. I'd rather Michigan win and OSU win everytime than the other way around.
"toss up" comment totally withdrawn.
Was definitely a "silver lining" comment.
It's tough to consider yourself little brother when Michigan has been so historically dominant, including recent huge stretches like OSU has right now. I'm pretty sure It's fair game to wish ill on your rivals even when you're not playing them, and the fact is there IS an upside to losing even if it's not as big of an upside as winning. That's sort of what an upside is. If you want to ignore reality and think OSU winning the big ten every year has no bearing on Michigan that's your choice, but there's no need to get on peoples' case for not following your lead.
Wisconsin is damned if we do, OSU is damned if we don't. That's good news all around that's what that is. And if you think talking about it in this manner somehow jinxes the team, that's pretty silly. Those boyos work out and practice for decades and you think message board phantasms are gonna determine the outcome? Focusing on that stuff is... lame.
I said absolutely nothing about "jinxing" the team. What I said was that the notion that it's a "tossup" whether we should want to win or lose is incredibly Little Brother-ish, which it is. Only a pathetic little brother would think, "Yes! We lost and ruined their chances!" Since when is our primary interest seeing OSU lose, and not our own team win?
Besides, we have our chance to beat OSU next week. How about we win out?
if UM wins: we beat OSU the next week to keep them out of the Rose ourselves and get to 9 wins in the regular season.
Who cares about OSU and what happens to them? We need victories period, and what they do to the rest of the Big Ten in terms of help or hurt their goals does not matter to me.
WUCK FOODY AND BUCK THE FADGERS!
for some reason wisky does not do well at the big house. remember 08, keep hope alive...
I was about to say the same thing. Anything is possible in the Big House.
Every time my friend has picked against Michigan over the past two seasons, Michigan won that game. He said Wisconsin would flatten Michigan this weekend.
lose a close one but I will take a game that is last team with the ball wins. Our best chance is in a game like that. If our offense is executing I like our chances.
a little tricky,Wisky should be spottin more then that sounds good Michigan fans
Let's just hope that Michigan takes Wisconsin to the house. Just like when we were the underdog back in 2008. Miracles happen!
Wisco has a bad history on the road in November. Something like 9-22 straight up. Hopefully it keeps up
This game was -6.5 a week ago. Doesnt look like the results of last weekend impacted the line at all.
Michigan is 0-6 against the spread this year in Big Ten play. We have won three games where we failed to cover. I don't know why Vegas is so high on us. I was floored when we were favored against MSU and then only 3-point dogs against Iowa. This spread has me floored once again. I'll be shocked if we keep it within a score. We won't be able to stop Wisconsin all day.
What you conveniently forgot to mention was that we were within one point of the spread in each of the last two weeks. We also were within one TD of the Indiana and Iowa spreads.
The spread was indeed off. The bookies have made the spread and it's now -4.5 or -5, meaning I believe that action at -5.5 was on Michigan!