Early M v. Utah preview at SB Nation

Submitted by wolverine1987 on

Ok, this is a bit early but still welcome--actual football content and analysis in July, from SB Nation, with x's and o's and attempts at predicting Harbaugh's approach in the game.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/7/21/8951765/michigan-uta…

"Some of the talent Hoke recruited might finally be experienced enough to find answers against the kinds of teams that have given Michigan fits, teams with perhaps lesser athletes but sounder systems. Utah has been that kind of team."

DCAlum

July 21st, 2015 at 11:55 AM ^

Article was pretty good. I agree that a lot of the game will come down to the trenches.

I think it missed the fact that our OL should be taking a huge step forward this year. But maybe I'm a little biased.

alum96

July 21st, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^

I agree.  I dont know how much the line improved as the year moved on as much as a running back who actually hit holes hard appeared on the field.   I find it hard to believe that within 1-2 weeks the OL made such a leap - it seemed the same blocking schemes that were mostly not working for Smith and Hayes early Oct "worked" in late October for Johnson.

 

M-Dog

July 21st, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^

Yeah, I agree . . . I think a lot of it has to do with Johnson's running style.  He's quick, he's slippery, he has a little wiggle at the point of attack, and he can squirt through holes that are only open for a half-second.  it plays to the strength (or weakness) of our O-Line.

OSU really had no answer for him.  I am convinced to this day that if he had stayed in the game, we would have won.

I hope he returns this year fully healthy and stays that way.  He could be a surprising difference maker at RB the way Hart and Morris were.

alum96

July 21st, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^

Booker is going to be interesting.  IMO he will be the 2nd best rb we face all year and last year when teams wanted to run on us (and were good at it - Minn, MSU, OSU) they could pretty much at will.   Our rush D was great against mediocre to average rush offenses and last year Utah was not that good early but Booker exploded as the season went by.  After the UM game Booker went off for 150+ in 4 of the next 5 as he grabbed the starting role.

Not as worried about Wilson - he is a bottom end P12 QB (would be middle tier in Big 10) but it will be interesting to see how we do against their rush offense.

Orchard is a huge loss for Utah - cannot even imagine someone getting 18.5 sacks in a P5 conf but the fans seem very high on Dimick who had 10 himself.  Must be nice to have so many guys who are sack heros.

As for offense it's just a mystery on our side.  Guys like Kalis and Ben B just need to take a step up and be better than average.   Cole and Graham I am confident in, everyone else is still a mystery.   Even with the "improvement" last year UM OL still ranked #50 in football outsiders ranking - for comparison BYU was #7 two years ago and an injury wrecked unit last year still finished #18.  Ohio State had to rebuild an OL almost completely from scratch and finished #2.  Even Utah was #42 and their offense was very simple and limited last year.

As I wrote in comments in my BYU preview as I watched Utah v UM last year I saw a team that was well coached, whose talent was solid but not great but whose sum better than it's parts... then I saw Hoke's team across from it.  Can't wait to see that crap change.

ken725

July 21st, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^

Utah played Wash St, UCLA, Ore St and USC in their next 4 games.

Michigan ended the year ranked 15th in rush defense.

Wash St. - 40th

UCLA - 42nd

Ore St. - 51st

USC - 26th

Was his explosion the product of playing mediocre rushing defenses?

alum96

July 21st, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^

There are 128 teams so I dont consider teams whose rush defense was 30-40th rank to be mediocre.   Once you get to the 60s you could be a "meh" defense and 80s and higher below average to poor. 

The Pac 12 defenses as a whole will be ranked lower because you know - they have a plethora of guys who can actually throw the football and do so at will.  Line up all the Pac 12 QBs last year vs Big 10 QBs and its sad once you get past Cook and (any OSU QB).  Hack had a horrid year, Devin had a horrid year so you are talking Gary Nova as the next best QB - meanwhile the Pac 12 has 9 guys better than Nova. 

The Pac 12 offenses hurt Pac 12 defense rankings just like Big 10 offenses help Big 10 defensive rankings. I did a whole piece on this few months ago.

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/are-big-10-defensive-stats-inflated-bad-offe…

UM had a good rush defense but when push camed to shove against good rush offenses it flailed.  It did what it needed to do against mid tier and lower rush offenses.

MGoStrength

July 21st, 2015 at 5:37 PM ^

On paper our o-line is just as good as OSUs and with more experience, but offensive production is another story.  That makes me believe either coaching has a lot to do with it and/or our offensive problems are more complex than the o-line.  We have inexperience/unproven players at QB, RB, and WR as well.  While OSU had questions on o-line, they had talent everywhere else.  If we had Barrett, Elliot, Thomas, and Smith and ran OSU's offense would our o-line look just as bad?

Tater

July 21st, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^

I liked this.  They seem to be a bit more charitable toward Michgan than some writers.  I still think Michigan gets "sleeping giant" status and that having a real offense with no meddling from an unqualified AD will make Michigan finally look like the teams Brady Hoke recruitied.  

There are plenty of four and five stars on this team who are aching to prove that they weren't "overrated."  You can bet your ass that Harbaugh will put them in the position to do just that.  

M-Dog

July 21st, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^

He will, but can he do it soon enough?  

When you actually compress the time, he will only be spending a fairly small amount of hours with the team before Sep 3rd.  He's not going completely trnasform them in that amount of time.

What he has to work with is the team we saw at the Spring Game + a few new faces.  That's hardly a juggernaut to be molded into a coherent efficient team in about a month.

HARBAUGH! and all, but this will take some time.

Please, no September freakouts.

 

EGD

July 21st, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^

The main thing I am expecting Harbaugh will do, though, is take what was basically a soft team under Hoke and make them hard.  Other B1G coaches have done that in a single off-season.  John L Smith's MSU team was all bitches in 2006; Dantonio came in, and suddenly they were a hard-nosed team in 2007.  Tressel's 2001 team wasn't very good, but played much harder and nastier than the John Cooper teams that preceded it.  Gary Barnett, Barry Alvarez, and Kirk Ferentz also came into emasculated programs and immediately made them more vigorous, even if it may have taken a while for that to translate into wins on the field.  

I am not convinced M has enough talent at the skill positions or DE to win the B1G this season, but I do think we'll see much tougher, more puissant squad emerge from the tunnel in game one. I think a single offseason is enough to instill that mentality.  

Unicycle Firefly

July 21st, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^

2011 was a lockout year in the NFL that drastically shortened training camp. Harbaugh still turned a 6-10 dumpster fire into a 13-3 team that was one play away from a Super Bowl berth. I'm sick of tempering expectations and making excuses for losing. Utah is decent but they aren't freakin' Alabama. Win the damn game.

MGoStrength

July 21st, 2015 at 5:47 PM ^

My concern is our offensive skill players just don't seem to have panned out.  Morris already seems like a big question mark.  Our other big recruiting gets at the skill positions are Green, Harris, and Cole.  Green also seems like a big question mark, Harris has not shown he can get healthy, and Cole is a true freshman.  I like Butt, but he's not enough.  The rest of the offensive skill players are not really 4 and 5-star guys, but are more role players.  I'm concerned there are no real playmakers on offense.

switch26

July 21st, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^

Our offensive line did lime totally diff against osu last year as even Chris speilman said we were pushing around osus front easily.. Then Drake tore his acl

Woodstock Wolverine

July 21st, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^

I have a feeling (hope)with proper leadership this team finally has an "ah ha" moment, and things click. Lots of talent to work with. This is a huge game! Can't freakin wait! I can see us coming out extremely fired up and taking them Utes to the wood shed!




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Woodstock Wolverine

July 21st, 2015 at 1:40 PM ^

Ya I know we won't be world beaters by the first game but it's not like we're starting with Alabama. I don't think Utah will be as good as last year. They have new coaches (none are Harbaugh) and lost a lot of players. They are a middle of the road PAC-12 team. I feel we should be the better team as long as someone steps up at QB, and someone will. Who knows, I'm probably just a delusional homer but I think we take em.




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WolverineHistorian

July 21st, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^

That was a good read.

I'm kind of disappointed that this is Harbaugh's first game. Even with the pieces Utah lost, it's going to be very difficult to win there. I'm not expecting us to be world beaters in year one but winning the first game to a hopeful start of a new era would feel pretty amazing.

mGrowOld

July 21st, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^

Am I the only one that hates previews that dont come with a prediction?  Seems like the whole point of a preview (to me anyways) is to give the reader an idea of what the writer thinks is going to happen and why.  And then at the end they need to make their call as to the final score so I can agree (if they're picking Michigan) or think they are biased idiots (if they pick someone else).

Is that so much to ask?

Mski2812

July 21st, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^

I honestly think we will win pretty handily by like 14-17 points. I don't know why I just think that will happen and I just think harbaugh will have this team ready to go.

Njia

July 21st, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^

I hope you're right, but we have so many unanswered questions on offense that it's hard to predict how many points we will score. I think our D will be okay if the O doesn't put us deep in a hole.

This feels too much like 2008 for my liking; new coach, mostly new QBs, "rely on the Defense to get us through," etc. We will win more than 3 games, but it could be ugly early.

uminks

July 22nd, 2015 at 2:58 PM ^

The only good unit in '08 was the defense. The OL was a mess along with the QB and RR coaching by going directly to the spread without spread players.

This season Rudock will be much better than the two we had in'08. Heck even Morris could play better. I'm more optimistic about this season though we could lose this one on the road. In my own season projections I have UT penciled in as a loss but it would not surprise me if Harbaugh could pull out a victory in this game.