UM -5 (opened at -6)
Nebrasker -10 over Ohio
ND -15.5 over Air Force
Penn State -2 over Iowa
Illinois -16 over Indiana
I'm surprised given our "12" rank that we're not favored by more. I'd say that's an accurate spread though
A lot of people here are attaching too much value to being ranked. You don't have to be that great to have a ranking next to your name. After the top 5-7 teams, there's always a major dropoff.
um, aren't most people here in agreement that we're ranked too high?
At this point, we easily fit in with the teams around us. We're right about where we should be if you look at everyone elses resumes.
Clearly Texas (#11 in the AP) has a superior resume' with wins over Rice, BYU (by a single point), UCLA and Iowa State.
Don't forget Florida, who was ranked #12 in the AP before getting pantsed by
Bama, and their sterling wins over FAU, UAB, Tennessee and Kentucky.
I do not think we're ranked too high. I think we'd hang right with or beat every team ranked below us on any given day, so I think we're about right.
our ranking is too probably too high. It is reasonable for voters too be a bit wary given recent past. Two or three wins in the next three three weeks willl validate a ranking.
It will be hard to get 3 wins in the next 3 weeks, seeing as we have NW, MSU then BYE. I think we beat NW and MSU, but BYE is going to kick our butts.
Vegas cares not for your mortal rankings.
I think it's something like 3.5 to 4 points. So if this were a home game, we would be favored by 12 or 13, which sounds like a lot if Persa is playing. This spread sounds about right, although I would take us to cover.
the new, new, new math.
Well if it's -5 @ their place and home field is worth 3.5, then at a neutral site its UM -8.5 and with UM at home its UM -12(the number he got).
His math was correct, his error was in assuming that N'Western gets 3.5 points at home for their "home field advanatage" when they bascially play in a H.S. stadium that is usually filled with fans of the visiting team.
I think people make too much of fan support as the rationale for home field advantage. With a few notable exceptions, home field advantage is more about the familiarity of surroundings than it is about crowd noise.
I fail worse than my baseball team.
My thoughts exactly.
That is deep, dude. Really deep ....
Not sure how I managed that.. At any rate give me Nebraska -10.
I'd pick all of the favorites to cover, except for Penn State
Sounds about right, but assumes Persa is playing.
Nebraska could easily beat that spread.
I'll take Air force
You can have them next year.
AFA for me.
Air Force 25 ND 21
I'd like to see that happen, but it doesn't help Michigan in the eyes of the pollers and most of all the BCS computers.
On playing for the National Championship?
that the first Rose Bowl never went all 4 quarters. Stanford's captains surrendered to Michigan when trailing 49 - 0. Two questions .... did Vegas nullify all bets on this game AND did the NCAA decide (50 years after the game) that the stats from that game did not count?
At least that's what Hyman Roth told me.
How many points do you think OSU scores this weekend? I think 3.
I would say something along the lines of 38-10. OSU couldn't move the ball in any of their games but do get their guys back from suspension, should be able to find the end zone once.
I can't see Nebraska scoring that many points. OSU's D is still very good.
I think it depends a lot on how many passes Martinez throws.He's capable of torching Ohio or keeping them in the game.
38-10 is giving Nebraska a lot of credit. I am not sure they deserve much at this point. Jury is out and I agree, he could easily keep OSU in the game.
I think they all cover with the exception of Penn State. I think Iowa will beat them again. If the Tat4 @ tsiO don't make an impact, that game could be nasty. Nebraska just got straight embarassed and will want to beat on someone.
This could be the first time I can remember that OSU could put up a goose egg. I am thoroughly enjoying the osu schadenfreude. Nebraska will run them over. Wisconsin will absolutely butt-rape the bucks.
Air Force might beat ND, they will certainly cover.
Iowa might beat PSU
I still don't know about Illinois, but they'll win.
You are aware that they weren't shut out right?
for the last 2 weeks I have not been sure that we would cover the spread, 10 against SDSU and 20 against Minny. This time I have to think that we will cover the spread. I don't see anyway PSU beats Iowa. The Huskers should cover the spread but there is no telling how much of a difference the Tat4 will make, too many uncertainities. Ill should cover the spread but I thought the same thing about them with WMU.
It might be your upbringing, back in the day it was a safe pick that UM would always win at home but never cover do to Gentlemen Lloyd always calling off the dogs in the second half.
Just curious, I have no clue. I kind of hope they do, because -5 is great motivation to beat it. Seems low for #12 vs an unranked team, even on the road.
Even if I wasn't a complete homer I'd take Michigan. This is a team that barely came out alive against a poor BC squad and gave up 38 points to Illinois. UM by 14, maybe more.
ND -15.5 over Air Force? Take the fly boys and the points. It's a gift.
I like Michigan to win BUT
Cant overlook the fact that Michigan is 10-22 ATS in their first road game since 1979, 3-18 ATS when they're chalk. Some scray history of let downs, at least per the oddsmakers number
double post oops
NW is a tough team. And our first road game. I'd say a -2 spread would be more accurate. Would not be surprised in the least if we lost this one as a trap game before MSU. It will all come down to two datapoints - turn overs and how the D handles Persa. Can the secondary buy Mattison enough time to get his blitz heat on him, and can there be enough pressure up front to slow him down. If we can even be modest in this regard, we should win.
UM 35-NW 34 is my useless prediction.
I'd lay the points. Northwestern's defense sucks big time. They are giving up over 410 yards per game and their games to this point include Boston College, Army, Eastern Illinois, and Illinois. Their rushing defense is giving up more yards per game than Minnesota (including the Michgian game). I'm going to assume a trend break here and say that we don't lay an egg. I think we can cover even if Persa plays at 100%.
The only thing Michigan needs to worry about this week is...as John Madden might put it:
“Usually the team that scores the most points wins the game.”