Early ESPN Bracketology

Submitted by JHendo on

As pointless as it is this early in the season, Lunardi's 1st Bracketology since the season started came out today.  In the preseason one, he projected us as a 3 seed, and clearly a lot of things have changed in college basketball since.  We are now sitting as a #8 seed in the East bracket going up against Dayton.   Seeing as the best win we have so far is against RPI (ESPN) #103 FSU, and our worst loss is RPI #153 Charlotte, 8th seed seems very valid and maybe even a bit generous.  Of course, while still interesting, this all means nothing, especially before conference play has begun.

Other interesting points:

  • #1 seeds - Arizona, Syracuse, Louisville, OSU
  • Big Ten teams (tied with ACC for the most teams with 7) - #1 OSU, #2 MSU, #2 Wisconsin, #6 Iowa, #8 U of M, #10 Indiana, #11 Minnesota
  • FSU (#11) is the only team we beat projected to make it to the tourney.  Charlotte is our only loss not projected to make it. 

 

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

ColsBlue

December 16th, 2013 at 3:39 PM ^

There are only two B1G teams that haven't played a ranked team yet - Penn State and Ohio.  Of course, this doesn't excuse Michigan's 0-3 record vs. ranked teams this season.  Just wonder what our record would be if we played Ohio's schedule.  I'd say at least 9-1, if not 10-0.  Interesting to look at the differences in scheduling philosophies between the two schools.  

mh277907

December 16th, 2013 at 3:50 PM ^

OSU has had a terrible non-conference schedule this year, no doubt about it (though, Marquette was ranked when OSU played them). But you can hardly speculate on differences in "scheduling philosophies" by examining only one year. Just look at last year's non-conference schedule between the two teams, for example. Anyways, it is going to be another brutal year in the B1G.

The Geek

December 16th, 2013 at 4:14 PM ^

To be honest, you can't blame any team for scheduling a cupcake non-conference schedule, with the B1G schedule looming. Personally, I like an early challenge or two (Duke, Arizona) to let you know where you stand. 

Can't wait to play Ohio in MBB! Man, remember when we swept Staee?

 

Spock

December 16th, 2013 at 4:18 PM ^

Aren't the games scheduled way in advance though? I'm unsure if basketball is like football in that aspect. If so, then there is no way the people who created that terrible schedule would have known that the conference slate would be difficult.

SFBlue

December 16th, 2013 at 3:50 PM ^

Generous.  But then I would not want to play Michigan as an #8.  The schedule really eases up the next month and this is could be the lowest point in terms of projected seeding.

JHendo

December 16th, 2013 at 3:58 PM ^

As others have said, they've played nobody, and their soft schedule has given them a misleading head start in the rankings over the rest of the B1G.  I honestly don't expect them to make out of conference play any higher than a 3 seed.

jtmc33

December 16th, 2013 at 4:01 PM ^

I'm okay with an 8-seed as long as we beat #9 Charlotte, #1 Arizona, #4 Iowa State and #2 Duke on our way to another Final 4.

Then Louiville in the Semi-Final and Kansas State in the finals (but only if KSU wins the Copper Bowl, otherwise, a of 1992 with the Tar Heels).

 

 

westwardwolverine

December 16th, 2013 at 4:07 PM ^

I think we'll be fine and pull somewhere between a 5 and a 7 seed. 

6-4 right now:

We need to go undefeated against (and I'm fairly certain we will): Holy Cross, Nebraska x2, Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue x2. 

That gets us to 13 wins. 

Also like us to beat Stanford, so there's 14. 

Illinois and Minnesota strike me as wild cards. You'd like to see see us go 3-1 against those two teams and pick up a road win. 

17-5.

That leaves us with 9 games against: Indiana x2, MSU x2, Wisconsin, x2, Iowa x2 and OSU (sadly, one game away). As long as we take care of business in the games we should win, we could probably go as poorly as 3-6 (and end up 20-11 before the Big Ten Tourney) and still easily make the tournament. I'm not even sure how good Indiana and Iowa are, they might be closer to that Minnesota/Illinois group. 

This Michigan team just strikes me as one that is going to gel and go on a roll at some point in the season. 

The Geek

December 16th, 2013 at 4:08 PM ^

all we need is a berth, imho. By the time March rolls around, Coach B will have them ready to go deep into the tourney. We have mucho talent, but are young. 

mGrowOld

December 16th, 2013 at 4:14 PM ^

Let's face it, in many ways we are following the MSU model for pre-season scheduling.  For years Izzo would put State through an absolute guantlet of tough teams and frequently their early season record reflected it.  But by the B1G season and March madness he had his team peaking and ready to go deep into tourny.

I wish we didnt have four losses but you can see this team getting better, IMO, each game.  And I predict they will continue to improve all season long as Coach B refines the rotation and the young players get a bit more seasoning.

Wolverine Devotee

December 16th, 2013 at 4:34 PM ^

These losses to good teams are going to do much more for this team than beating the Houston Baptists of the world by 54.

I want a B1G Tournament Championship so badly. Crisler needs a banner. One that will never come down and be locked away.

LSAClassOf2000

December 16th, 2013 at 5:08 PM ^

The "early yet" qualifier would apply here too, but this is how TeamRankings would project some select teams in the Big Ten right now:

Michigan - projected 10-seed, projected record of 18-12, projected probability of bid 67% (9% for automatic bid)

Wisconsin - projected 2-seed, projected record of 25-6, projected probability of bid 99% (17% for automatic bid)

Ohio State - projected 1-seed, projected record of 26-5, projected probability of bid 99% (26% for automatic bid)

Indiana - projected 11-seed, projected record of 21-10, projected probability of bid 53% (7% for automatic bid)

They also give Iowa and Michigan State a 5-seed and 6-seed projection respectively. 

ThadMattasagoblin

December 16th, 2013 at 5:13 PM ^

The next three weeks before we begin big ten play are critical in determining how our year goes. Ohio and MSU don't look so great in the games they've played and are likely benefiting from an easy schedule. We need to rebound ad play defense better and get Derrick Walton more comfortable with the PG position.

michclub19

December 16th, 2013 at 5:43 PM ^

I put a lot of stock into winning early season tournaments as a means of "learning how to win" in stressful, tightly-scheduled, games.  I thought beating FSU while not playing our best game was a big sign for this team, only to be disappointed with the loss to Charlotte.  IIRC last season we won the Coaches v Cancer(?) tourney and obviously translated that well into March Madness.

That being said, we are a very young team.  Trying to break in a new PG and 6th man(Irvin).  It's not like last season where we only asked Nik to bury 3s and GRIII to oop Trey's ally.  Beilein has a very tough offense to learn that always seems to take until late January to click with backcuts, spacing, etc.  I have no problem losing @ Duke, @ Iowa St, or to an Arizona team we don't match up well with.  This team has talent and Mitch and Nik won't allow us to fall outside a top-25 team for an extended period.

Mr. Yost

December 16th, 2013 at 9:23 PM ^

Michigan will be a 4-6 seed and be a dangerous team come tournament time. Play like they did vs. Arizona and they won't lose more than 5 more games for the rest of the season.