The dust has settled - predict the top four

Submitted by ChopBlock on

Essentially, we have 4 teams vying for three playoff spots. Alabama will be the #1 seed of course, but for spots 2-4, the following teams are in the race (astersik = conference champion). Sorry Oklahoma, better luck next year.

Ohio State 11-1

Clemson 12-1*

Washington 12-1*

Penn State 11-2*

Do Clemson and/or Washington jump Ohio State? Does conference champion Penn State squeak into the #4 spot? Post your predicted top 4!

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1464

December 4th, 2016 at 3:32 AM ^

Clemson hasn't impressed me.  At all.  I'd have them at 4, and I don't even think they're that good.  They've been the beneficiary of so many close games, one of which (UNC) had absolutely nothing to do with Clemson.

What is their claim?  Beating Louisville and FSU?  That's not a murderers row.

Washington had a harder schedule and flat out blew away their competition in most games.  I'm stunned as to why Clemson is perceived to be better.  Probably just recency bias.

Don't give me that "good teams find a way to win" cliche, either.  Good teams don't let it get close against average teams.  When two good teams play a good game, it's largely chance as to which pulls it out.  Sometimes something as little as a ref inadvertantly screening a LB that sat back in coverage will win a game for someone.  That's on chance, not skill.

People like to attribute less to chance than there really is, to find some sort of reason to these things.  There are simply cases when teams are evenly matched, that they'd each win 5 out of 10 against the other.  In that case, flip a coin as to who pulls it out.

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lhglrkwg

December 4th, 2016 at 9:18 AM ^

I think Washington is a lock for 4 because the committee is going to want to make a statement about Washington's SOS and non-conference schedule which was as awful as Baylor's have been.

Clemson at least played and beat a pretty good Auburn team in the non-conference. I think the committee will reward them for that and winning the conference title (which OSU obviously did not)

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Ohio State
  4. Washington
    ....
  5. Michigan
  6. Penn State
  7. Oklahoma

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Tater

December 4th, 2016 at 12:41 AM ^

You can't call OSU "cheaters" without calling the only program that cheats more prolifically than OSU cheaters, too.  As in: "Cheaters, Clemson, Cheaters, Washington."

I am pissed that I am still waiting for the NCAA to level the playing field by letting players get paid like they should have been all along.

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MGoPoints: 30584

M go Bru

December 4th, 2016 at 5:15 AM ^

1) Alabama 

2) Doesn't matter

3) Doesn't matter

4) Doesn't matter

Why do all quarterback-centric running offenses (esp Ohio State / Clemson / Louisville) all look like something that was created on a sandlot?

It just doesn't look like football anymore. It's a chaotic quarterback pass or optional draw on every play!

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MGoPoints: 1503

DHerrick

December 4th, 2016 at 12:50 AM ^

1. Bama

2. Clemson

3. Penn State

4. Washington

 

Ohio State lost to the Big 10 Champion and was a two-point conversion (against a 3-9 team) and generous spot away from losing their last two games.  Sending them instead of a conference champion ignores the reality that there is a significant risk of losing every game.  A two loss Penn State who had to risk another loss that Ohio State did not -- who beat Ohio State and won the conference -- deserves to go.

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pmark1210

December 4th, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^

true. Washington vs Alabama in the first semi is a great ratings draw. I think Washington poses speed and shiftyness matchups that will test Bama. it's a good watch for the curiosity of "how good is this west coast team that has a great coach, up and coming talent, but no one has ever seen?" I think Ohio state beats Clemson. can't rely on dabo. can rely on Meyer, he's proven to win big games, and I think they are relatively evenly matched. then, I think the media gets what they want for the national title. Meyer v Saban. I don't have an issue with Alabama like everyone else here does, so I don't have a problem saying this: I think Bama smashes Ohio state. I hope Bama smashes Ohio state. I want Bama to smash Ohio state.

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Class of 1817

December 4th, 2016 at 1:31 AM ^

how in the hell this post got even this many downvotes. But whatever.

PSU is just simply not even one of the top 8 teams in the country, so they don't deserve anything...much less an auto-bid for winning a one-off conference game. (That goes, of course, for the entire auto-bid mentality all around.)

Any whining from PSU about this should be met with the reassurance that they will be given a chance to shine on the national stage in the Lucky to Still Have a Football Program Bowl.

The nauseating "healing process being about the football team winning" narrative won't get them enough traction, thankfully. They should be disqualified from any CFP considerations for the next 7 years, anyway.

I've got a feeling Bama destroys the Dawgs. OSU finally looks good in a win for the first time in awhile. Then we're going to end up watching Alabama revenge all over OSU's face in the title game. And everyone will go home happy.

Hopefully, M will be the least happy of them all and most hungry for next season. 

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MGoPoints: 4419

Chitown Kev

December 4th, 2016 at 12:15 AM ^

as a #4

With 2 loses, I can't see Penn State jumping them but Clemson and Washington jumpng OSU is entirely justified.

1) Alabama

2) Washington

3) Clemson

4) Ohio State

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Chitown Kev

December 4th, 2016 at 12:21 AM ^

...smoked them in fact...

EDIT: BTW, I think Penn State only jumps from 7 to 6 sincce they go to the Rose Bowl anyway and only the Top 4 really matter.

I don't think that the committee really likes Penn State and 49-10 is 49-10...so...Michigan will stay at 5 with Penn State 6

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lhglrkwg

December 4th, 2016 at 9:21 AM ^

If there was a chance of that, I think we would've gone into this week at #4, forcing Washington to beat Colorado to get in. Since we're already #5, why would Washington drop? I know TCU dropped in 2014 after crushing Iowa State, but that was also because Ohio State won a big game and gave reason to jump in front of them

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G. Gulo of the Dale

December 4th, 2016 at 10:37 AM ^

No one is claiming that Washington went through "Murderers' Row," but here are some teams they beat listed by current Sagarin ranking:

10.  Colorado (beat by 31)

13.  Wash. St. (beat by 28, on the road)

17.  Stanford (beat by 38)

(All ranked above Iowa)

Washington dismantled those teams, all of which feel "pulsey" to me.

They also have a road win over top-30 Utah.

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lilpenny1316

December 4th, 2016 at 1:36 AM ^

Since Wisconsin is slated to drop two spots maximum, Michigan would still have two Top 10 wins, and probably three Top 15 wins after Colorado falls.

If the committee is completely impressed by the quality of play in the B1G title game, they may feel compelled to give the conference a second team and based on profiles, our profile may still rate higher than PSU's.

Washington would have to drop out because of Portland State, Idaho and Rutgers.  

Doubt it's happening, but I guess we can dream some more until noon.

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Wolvie3758

December 4th, 2016 at 9:45 AM ^

Michigan 3 top 10 wins....Wash 1 (Colorado) and 1 top 25  (Utah)

Wash played NOBODY out f conf...Michigan beats top 10 Colorado in non conf

 

If any of that matters then Michigan should be in but as we all know College Football just can everr get it right

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