DraftExpress, widely considered the most accurate draft site when it comes to scouting players' strengths and weaknesses, has Burke as the NBA Draft prospect of the week, meaning they just came out with his analysis video *today*.
I am not sure I agree with that assessment. Pretty sure Trey averaged 4 crazy how-the-heck-did-that-go-in circus shots every game. He has an amazing ability to get the ball in the net.
finisher at least. He has amazing body control and he has all the finishing moves in his repertoire. However he is a small PG for NBA standards and he does get blocked a decent amount because of his size.
He has the body control, touch, and circus freak ability that you see all the time in the NBA. But his size was occassionally an issue in college, and will certainly be a factor in the pros. There were games this season where it seemed like the key to neutralizing Burke was putting a lengthy player on him and picking him up at like a half-court press. However, he seemed to adjust to that defense and found a way to just work through pressure as the season went on.
If I recall correctly, Burke was behind GR3 and THJ in terms of shooting percentage on drives. However, comparing him with GR3 especially is apples to oranges because Burke was finishing directly on people almost every time, whereas GR3 was dunking freebies oftime times.
So in summary I think Burke has shown the ability to finish at the college level, but saying he will be an average finisher is a projection (sort of like it is a projection that GR3's athleticism will allow him to blossom in the pros).
A lot of the plays on which he failed to finish likely would have been called as fouls in the NBA. He drew a lot of un-called contact at the rim this year.
In the NBA almmost all of the shots are going to get blocked though.
Also, Trey really does have a hard time scoring while going to his left. That's a huge issue, and teams will pick up on that immediately.
I love how they show his block against Siva as part of the highlights.
honestly consider Burke for the #1 pick overall if I were an NBA GM. It's pretty much consensus that if Burke was 3 inches taller and a little bit more explosive nobody would have any doubts about drafting him near the top.
However 2 things
1. He has the wingspan (which is what they look for in height anyway) of a 6' 4" guard. his height is the ONLY thing stopping him from being drafted before Marcus Smart and MCW (on mock drafts anyway). But considering he has the wingspan of an above average NBA PG in terms of size, this would be a mistake.
2. Which great NBA point guards are these above-the-rim players that NBA GM's are looking for? Except for guys like Rose, Westbrook and Wall (who aren't "pure" point guards anyway) pretty much nobody. Burke is at least as athletic as Paul, is as tall as him and has a longer wingspan.
He's the most "polished" point guard prospect coming out of college in my lifetime. I think Burke will be an all-star in the NBA.
that MWC gets picked over Burke. But Burke is not as athletic as CP3.
MCW won't go before Burke. But towards the end of the regular season a lot of mock drafts had MCW going before Burke. Seems like that's no longer the case.
How is CP3 more athletic than Burke? In terms of raw measurables I think they are about the same. In terms of how fluid you are athletically I think Burke is better - I rarely ever see CP3 make circus shots at the rim like Burke can. Burke is smoother.
Of course, this is just my opinion.
You are biased and wouldn't be saying these things if Burke wasn't one of our guys. Burke is a special player, but CP3 probably had a more predictable upside coming out of college.
I don't think we should be expecting Burke to turn into Chris Paul in the pros, but he's really not that far off physically. Looking at Paul's draft combine measurables (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Chris-Paul-14/), I'd actually expect to see Burke measure out very similarly in terms of height/length, speed, lane agility, vertical, and strength. I think Paul has really outsdanding lateral quickness, which might not necessarily show up in the lane agility drill, but I also think that his hands make him seem a lot more explosive than he actually is, both off the dribble and on defense.
I've gone back and forth on Burke. His size forces him to extend his body when he attacks the basket, which is why he usually ends up on the floor. That scares me because even in the two week tournament run, he banged his head pretty hard once and took two pretty tough drops in the Louisville game. He's a tough son of a bitch and his "clutch" factor is off the charts. He's clearly a smart kid, being able to come in as a freshman and run the offense. I think he'll be a fantastic pro. Athleticism is overrated (let's be clear though, he isn't unathletic) it's helpful sure, but I really think he has the scoring ability, defense and mental capacity to make up for it. In the top 6.
I also think Burke isn't going to score much at the rim at the next level. He's going is going to have to evolve where he gets more of his points from 3, the midrange game and his excellent floater. I still think that's good enough for 18ppg in the NBA.
CP3 was the same way.
1) Finishing ability?!?!? Did they watch him at all? I can't even logically refute this other than by just saying it's flat out wrong. Besides, on half of the ones they showed, I thought he was fouled.
2) Pick and roll defense. I'm not saying he's a great defender, and I'm definitely no basketball expert, but a lot of those didn't seem like his fault. It looked like they switched on the screen/pick and the other guy let them score. That more showed me that McGary is a poor pick and roll defender.
When I teach my son how to play basketball, he will learn the "Trey Burke" Hesitation dribble. The best I have ever seen. This video is just awesome basketball.
Here's the full written analysis from DraftExpress - (LINK)
It goes into detail about the concern regarding finishing in the paint and converting only 52% of attempts near the basket, and they also discuss their views on how his size has a role in this, but they also talk about how he is not at all afraid to dive into defenses and draw fouls. They discuss his defense at length too, saying it "wavers", but they praise his ability to get steals and blocks and anticipate the where the ball will be.
It's an interesting read, and they do essentially end it by saying that he shouldn't have any problem finding a job as an NBA starter if he can stay healthy.
I'm not sure if "finishing ability" is really a weakness for him. He's a great finisher. WIth that said, just about everything else is spot on.
for best case is a smaller version of Damian Lillard...similar games, but Lillard is taller and has longer arms, and he finishes extremely well with his left hand in traffic, so he's been able to be an outstanding finisher at the NBA level. Both possess the ability to shoot it from deep off the catch or bounce and have a great pull up midrange game.
I think more likely, though, is Damon Stoudamire....a decent pro but ultimately limited by his size and tendency to settle for the jumper due to inability to consistenty finish at the rim....both Lillard and Stoudamire are/were not premier defenders, and I think Burke will be a defensive liability at the NBA level....
I think his closest analogue in the pros is Jameer Nelson. Similar size, playing style and athleticism. Burke probably won't be as efficient as Jameer offensively, but he'll be a better passer.
Jameer is an eerily excellent comparison.
Their PPG in college are 16.8 vs 16.9.
Their overall FG% in college were 45% vs 45.4%
Their FT% in college are 77.7% vs 78.6%
Their 3PT% in college are/were 36.5 and 36.7
Their assists per game in college are both 5.7.
Jameer's pro A/TO ratio is 2.32, while Burke's is 2.28.
Jameer's pro SPG per 36 minutes is 1.2, Burke had 1.3 steals per game in 35.7 minutes in college.
Both were AP Player of the year, won the Wooden, and won the Naismith awards.
If Burke's floor is Jameer Nelson, who made one all-star game in the NBA, that's not half bad.
It's more likely that that's his ceiling... not his floor.
How do you figure?
A team is much more likely to invest in and a PG picked in the top 10 (Burke) than the Magic gave to Nelson, taken 20th overall.
No matter how much a team invests in him, his likely upside tops out at "slightly better than Jameer Nelson." That's not bad at all for someone projected to go 5-10... Jameer Nelson was an all star a few years ago after all... Why is that his ceiling?
He has some physical limitations that he can't cover up with exceptional athleticism like CP3 can. I don't know that he's going to be able to create offense the same way he does in college once he has bigger and faster guards on him and I don't know that he's going to be able to defend those same guards. I'm not saying that he's definitely not going to be able to score on anyone or guard anyone in the league, but there's definitely risks involved. If he was the "sure thing" some of you guys seem to think he is he'd be #1 this draft for sure... no questions asked. Unfortunately there's a very good chance he turns out to be a bust... just like any other 1-10 draft pick. Most guys that go in that range don't become all stars.....
because he showed the ability to make clutch steals at the end of games almost at will. the author in the linked article comments that he seemed to be saving himself, but I think they didn't quite get the point that he was saving himself strategically rather than physically. it's not that he was being lazy, it's that he saw a vulnerability and saved the "zero day exploit" for the key moment in the game. Super smart basketball player.
Meassuring a guard's defensive capabilities by his ammount of steals is sort of like meassuring a F/C's defense by the number of blocks he gets. Talking heads love to do it because it's easy to count and extremely general.... but it's not at all an accurate meassurement. Steals don't meassure how good a guard is at running over a screen, recovering, switching, or staying in front of his man.