Donavan Warren and why the draft should change
Except for my selfish wanting of DW to stay at school and hopefully solidify the secondary, it sounded like he was making a good choice declaring for the draft given the state of the looming lockout.
Then, he had his workout and it could crush his position in the draft. I wonder whether DW would have left school if he wasn't projected to be drafted in the second (possibly the first round).
I don't understand why juniors can't participate in the NFL combine, then determine whether they will declare for the draft, provided they don't hire an agent. Sure, we're all faced to make decisions when we may not be prepared to do so, but this seems like a no-brainer with benefits for the players, the schools and the NFL teams.
Would another year help him? Who knows. I'm sure it would help a fistful of juniors.
if you put $40 on black and it rolls into red, you should be able to move your gambled chips based upon faulty impressions of probability and success.
at the horse track would make my life complete.
Maybe you're implying they should do something like the NBA where kids are eligible if they don't sign with an agent? Due to the shear number of players and with 7 rounds, this would not feasible. I do think they should push back the deadline for declaring for the draft, though from an NFL scouting perspective, it's not fair that a team should have to waste time scouting a guy who may not come out.
The NFL does have an advisory board which can give you feedback on where you would likely be drafted. I'm not sure if Donovan really utilized this.
I got the impression Warren declared before hearing from the advisory board.
Draft stock must come down.
After DW's rather poor combine performance he probably won't even get drafted. If he gets drafted at all it won't be any earlier than the 6th round. I bet you a dollar.
Whoever talked him into leaving early really screwed him over.
I'll take that bet.
Can't they do all these workouts on their own? It's not like Michigan doesn't have 225 lbs worth of weights or a 40 yard open space to run as fast as you can...
I was going to say the exact same thing - juniors can just work out with their S&C coaches. Only problem is the NFL draft deadline is in January, which takes away about two months of training for the combine.
It's more about having a standardized event where all the coaches and GMs can get together before the draft. It would be a pain in the ass for coaches to attend every individual senior day.
From what we all read, Donovan was warned by the Michigan coaching staff that he was taking a flier by entering as a junior. His performance last season was stellar at times, but he was occasionally exposed as well.
Hopefully, it will work out well for him.
National Signing Day is at the beginning of February and the Combine is at the end. Your team needs to fill your position with a new recruit if you're leaving so you can't say "Hey Coach, leave a spot open for me in case I do bad."
once he decided to go, his Scholly was used to bring in someone else, but like you said, the coaches did try to talk him out of it.
As an outsider looking in, it looks like he just didn't work the way he should have before the combine. I hope his pro day is much smoother and he can impress some people. The difference for most of these runs is technique and start. If improves those two things he can run a 4.4,4.5 in two weeks. He won't be any faster but he'll time better. If that makes any sense.
Maybe there is some injury we don't know about or he made a HUGE mistake coming out early.
I agree that it would resolve some problems, but it would also create others.
For example, graduated players spend several hours a day training for the Combine. A player who's still in school wouldn't be able to do that.
Also, what would the NCAA do about players at the draft? The players get gifts at the draft. Would the kids have to pay their own way? Would they have to pay for their own hotel? If they accept a gift from the NFL or a free stay at a hotel, does that ruin their eligibility?
Also, from a coach's standpoint, it would be distracting if you had a bunch of kids (redshirt sophomores, true juniors, and redshirt juniors) leaving every spring to take part in the Combine, only to return a week or two later.
And what about recruiting? What if Warren decided AFTER National Signing Day that he was indeed going to enter the draft? That's an extra scholarship opening up that Rodriguez wouldn't have a chance to fill.
Changing the process would open up a giant can of worms. There are a couple kids every year who make bad decisions to leave school, but that's just the way it is. And if Warren wants to know how many times he can bench 225 lbs., he can do it in the weight room at Michigan. I'm sure Barwis could round up a laser device to time him in the 40. They could figure out his vertical. It's not like he needs to be in Indianapolis to determine how he much weight he can lift or how high he can jump.
For example, graduated players spend several hours a day training for the Combine. A player who's still in school wouldn't be able to do that.
Apparently Donovan does not work to hard. 12 reps at 225 is pathetic. I am a out of shape 25 year old who last night was curious to see how many reps I could do. 9 I did 9 reps, and I have not lifted a weight in 2 years. Donovan never looked dedicated during the season, and the only passes he intercepted were thrown directly at him. I never thought he was this "All world corner" at his VERY best in his 3 years here he was a big Ten 2nd or 3rd team corner. Now I know why the coaches told him to stay, because he is a 4th round pick.
Donovan Warren = Ernest Shazor
Both should have stayed. Hopefully Warren steps it up when he gets to the pros, unlike Shazor
Warren's first interception of his career came on a diving, over-the-shoulder catch against Illinois in 2007.
His most important interception of 2009 was when he half-dived/outwrestled Demarlo Belcher for the ball against Indiana.
I agree that he should have stayed, but let's not pretend that every one of Marlin Jackson's or Leon Hall's or Charles Woodson's interceptions was of the highlight reel variety.
all year, and to tell you the truth that pick against Indiana, Sure as hell looked like Michigan recieved the benifit of the call.
What I really was trying to say is... I think D. Warren is just a lazy kid. Warren had 4 months to prepare for the combine and he comes out with 12 reps!! and a 4.7 forty?? thats pathetic no way around it. Now I know numbers don't mean everything but lets be serious, he is not going to be wrestling Indiana WR's for picks in the NFL. Just thought he was extremely unprepared for the combine
Three picks in a college season isn't bad, especially when you consider that opponents spent half the season destroying the confidence of Boubacar Cissoko, J.T. Floyd, and the Michigan fan base by throwing away from Warren.
Total interceptions is a very poor metric for evaluating CBs. The great ones rarely are thrown to.
I agree with the laziness. There has to be some excuse for a natural athlete of that caliber to put up those kinds of numbers.
my bad double posted
1. The system is not intended to work to the advantage of the athletes. It works to the advantage of the NFL (and arguably the NCAA). The NFL benefits because they gain a lot of leverage over incoming players by forcing them to declare before the combine. It puts the players in a spot where they have to perform in order to get drafted (hence, a high motivation factor to be in top shape) and ensures that their scouts have ample time to comb over the players that they can target. Meanwhile, the NCAA also benefits because it ensures that a lower proportion of juniors declare for the draft (because of the inherent risks involved) and also doesn't allow juniors to figure out whether they are (according to the NFL) one of the top juniors in the country, meaning that more of the best players in the country come back for their senior year.
2. Donovan Warren was not predicted by everyone to be a first or second round draft pick. Numerous scouts predicted him going in the range of rounds 3-6. He chose to believe in the scouts who said he'd be an early round pick, as well as his own ability to match up against this year's class. He made what appears to be a bad choice, but it doesn't really seem unfair.
The NCAA should be completely concerned with the welfare of the players. The NFL has no such obligation.
I believe that DW was leaning towards leaving early throughout his entire career. I think he choose Michigan as a recruit because he would be able to play early on a very visible team who had success putting DBs into the NFL. I cannot fault him for that, he gave us 3 good years, good luck DW.
I also believe that the punt return this year where he was blocking and got pushed head first into Stonum's knee may have cemented that point. Both players were injured and I don't ever recall DW writhing in pain before, he always seemed like a tough character. It's possible that he took that incident as proof that a serious injury can happen at any time and that his NFL career is on the line each and every play. Just my opinions, because I would have probably been thinking the same things if I were in his cleats.
I don't have a problem with them coming back to school. Both the NFL and NBA are in favor of keeping kids in schools. Hell, they've spent good money trying to keep talented players out due to age (see Clarett, M).
The best list I could find had 54 underclassmen declaring for the 2010 draft, which was unusually high due to the pending NFL labor issues. 46 players declared in 2009. This is under .5 players per D-1 team. Florida had the most this year with five declarers.
If the team will take him back, why not? It's in the best interest of the player, the college team, and perhaps even the NFL--who wants more experienced prospects. Even if there isn't a scholarship available, the player could transfer via current rules to a D-1AA or D-II school and play the next season.
I think it's simply a function of the NCAA creating a largly BS notion of "amateur" athletes.
But they have to draw the line somewhere right? They've decided to define someone as a non-amateur athlete as soon as they've hired an agent or taken any sort of compensation, among other things. There's not a right or wrong answer on a lot of things like that, it's just that there has to be a line.
Speed limits are somewhat arbitrary, but you know that in a neighborhood you need to be able to go faster than 10, but you don't want people going 50, so you set the limit at 25.
Agreed, I'd draw that line a little farther out than the NCAA currently does. Personally, I think that even undrafted players should be able to come back if they can repay their agent for any benefits they may have received (ie the new car or living expenses that agencies sometimes give top players as inducements to sign).
If the point of college athletics is to have "student-athletes" then it makes sense to me to allow them to return to school and earn a degree. It doesn't really harm anyone, I wouldn't like to see Warren come back and have Michigan withdraw someone else's scholarship.
Donovan submitted kind of paperwork or tape for an eval to the NFL. When it came back he liked what he saw and declared, although if I recall correctly the coaches said it wasn't that great of an eval.
He knew he had a midlevel eval from the NFL going into all of this, so while I wish he was back here, it's not like he was lured out of here with false promises, etc.
The best fix for this would be for the NFL to change their rule to read "you must be 4 years out of HS to play in the league", as opposed to the current rule which is 3 years.
Maurice Clarett just sued the NFL to try to allow TRUE SOPHOMORES to enter the NFL draft. Now you want to delay draft entrants and deny them the opportunity to make a living for another year?
Maurice Clarett just sued the NFL to try to allow TRUE SOPHOMORES to enter the NFL draft. Now you want to delay draft entrants and deny them the opportunity to make a living for another year?
I'll never be convinced Clarett and Williams shouldn't have been allowed into the draft. It just seems wrong to set an age limit over 18 on a person's ability to hold a job. To my non-legally trained mind, it seems wrong to block an entire profession like that.
Well would you feel better if the NFL said "You must have an undergrad degree to play?" As opposed to some time limit?
What about playing football in the NFL requires an undergraduate degree?
The job in question, the NFL, doesn't ask for a degree, like most jobs, just that you're out of high school for three years. That's not all that bad, if you think about it.
The nice thing about the NFL is that most 18, 19 and 20 year olds are just not physically able to hang with a 25-30 year old athlete. So the NFL has a bit of a natural barrier to entry, unlike the NBA. That makes NCAA football a lot better, IMO.
It just seems wrong to set an age limit over 18 on a person's ability to hold a job. To my non-legally trained mind, it seems wrong to block an entire profession like that.And yet the Constitution does just that for senators, members of the house of representatives, and the president. Darn you founding fathers!
a) Politics has a much larger window of opportunity than sports. Your prime years as an athlete are when you're between about 22 and 30 years old. You can be a politician until you're 140 years old, or at least that seems like what a couple senators have aimed for...
b) The NFL practically has a monopoly on professional football. If you want to make a living as a football player, it's pretty much either the NFL or the CFL. To be a politician, there are all kinds of local government jobs you can hold.
So yes, the government does put certain limits on your ability to get a job, but the situations are vastly different.
Nice point. It's interesting how the Constitution reads when compared to a modern world.
The "three year rule" is what makes NCAA football so great. Would you really be happy with having a "Henson to the Yankees" situation every time we had an outstanding player?
The NFL has no interest in becoming a developmental league like the NBA.
I wouldn't like it. I'd like every player to stay four full years. However, what gives the NFL the right to turn away qualified people based on age? If your employer did that, they'd get smacked with an enormous lawsuit and relent. I can't figure out how the NFL managed to be treated differently.
No one would make NFL teams draft guys just out of high school, but you're saying they shouldn't be allowed to even submit a resume.
He declared before the evaluation was returned.
I think you are wrong in this statement:
"Donovan submitted kind of paperwork or tape for an eval to the NFL. When it came back he liked what he saw and declared."
I don't think Warren even waited for the evaluation to come back. He did submit some paperwork to get an evaluation but declared before he ever received and was able to assess the evaluation he was given (that is my understanding anyway).
It is hard to feel bad for a guy who makes a decision of this magnitude in spite of having his coaches council against and not receiving an evaluation.
I said when he first declared for the draft that he would be mid 3rd round or later and I think if his 40 time or lifting had been better he would still be going there. These numbers may well push him back to the 4th round or later.
I said it is hard to feel bad for him, but not impossible.....I do feel kind of bad for the guy. Good Luck DW.
Edit* I guess I should have kept reading. Timmaaayy beat me to it, but only by 4 or 5......hours...... :S
Having a bad combine isn't the end of the world.
Didn't Tom Brady have a bad combine?
The problem with a bad combine for someone like Warren is that it diminishes the value of his only guaranteed paycheck in the NFL. After Day 1 in training camp, his career is one bad hit from ending.
Silver lining: DW having a bad combine makes me feel better about what Gerg had to work with last year; his best CB was good, but wasn't a beast... If DW had destroyed the combine, I'd be less confident in Gerg and the secondary coaches because DW was erratic last year. Regardless, I root for all UM ballers in the pro's, so I hope DW becomes an NFL stud.
So if they can do it in basketball, they can't in football. Cmon guys. I follow the nba draft pretty damn closely and there is no reason the the NCAA and the NFL couldn't follow their lead. Amateurs that want to preserve their eligibility have to pay for their own workouts and training. Yes the players would have to take time out from school to train and travel but the ones still on the team are spending 40-50 hours a week anyways on football related activities so I don't see the difference.
If a player goes to individual workouts and the combine and gets feedback on what they need to improve they will be a better player for it when they declare a year later. And the scholarship thing is a joke. They always find scholarships for these kids in basketball when they withdraw their name and they certainly would for football with 85 scholarships.
Most importantly it would be great for the kids. It would give them an opportunity to test the waters and see where they stand and and what they need to improve. There would be more kids declaring of course and more uncertainty for the coaches but at least the coaches would know that at the end of the day they were making an informed decision.
But we're potentially talking about DROVES of football players if you open the floodgates. Basketball early entrants are somewhat rare because there are so few slots in the NBA draft. A lot of guys know they shouldn't bother with testing the waters.
Let's take USC, for example. In a regular recent year, USC would probably have 10 kids testing the NFL draft waters. One or two of those kids is probably likely to enter the draft regardless of the rule, but let's say another 3 or 4 decide after NSD that they want to leave. Now USC has only 81 or 82 guys on the roster who "should" have a scholarship. The next year, another 2 or 3 decide post-NSD that they want to leave early. USC is down to 78 or 79 guys who "should" have a scholarship. Eventually, that makes an impact.
Magnus,
You're right. There may be droves of kids leaving school. There may be consequences that negatively affect many college teams if the NFL draft rules were changed. However, is it right to deny a talented person the right to make a living? I'd argue no.
Maurice Clarett may have had a crazy ride since leaving OSU, but he was definitely going to be drafted if the judge had ruled in his favor. Is it right for an adult (legally) with a phenomenal talent to be denied the right to seek employment using that talent, especially one as perishable as football talent?
This is a really hot button item for me where I seem to strongly oppose a large segment of the board. To me, it's not about the entertainment value of watching college football, it's a right to work issue. The NFL essentially has a monopoly on American football, and for the league to arbitrarily create barriers to entry is morally abhorrent to me. I'll put my thoughts together in a diary in a couple of weeks and maybe it will generate some good discussion.
ZL
But in reality it's a lot more complicated. I'm sure you know that the rule is intended to prevent NCAA football from becoming the equivalent of NCAA bball. I think there is sound logic on both sides of the issue, but they have it mostly right.