Does UM deserve a bowl in Orlando or Tampa? A surprising answer.
While a thread below considers what bowl opponent IS likely for UM, what bowl we SHOULD be going to?
Although some uncertainty remains, most people expect NU and NEB to go to the CapOne and Outback Bowls over UM. The reason is that the B1G sends a team to the Capitol One (or Outback) if it has two more wins (or two fewer losses) than its competitor.*
WIth this rule, however, teams with far easier out-of-conference (OOC) games are much more likely to win the higher bowl bids. And this year, unfortunately, UM had a much tougher schedule. It played its toughest OOC games on the road vs. teams with an average Sagarin PREDICTOR rank of #2, both on the road. NEB and NU played vs. opponents with an average rank of about #43, including one home game.**
Partly as a result, UM has by far the highest Sagarin rank (UM #24, NEB #29, NU #38). Indeed, even according to the final BCS rankings, UM clearly would be ranked above NU (and probably NEB). So, it should be going either to the CapOne or Outback bowl, right?
Maybe not.
Imagine what would happen If the B1G were unified once again, without the unfair divisions. Then, if it still wanted a title game, perhaps it should be sending the 2 teams with the highest BCS ranks. So, UM would have played NEB for the title. Um would not have to play on the road, like the last game. It would have to play not with its 3rd string QB. It would have Devin Gardner. And it probably would have Denard Robinson In fact, playing vs. a NEB team that just gave up 70 points to Wisc, Robinson would likely set the all-time NCAA QB rushing record in a big UM win.
But then, like now, UM would probably not going to the CapOne or Outback bowl.
In this alternate universe where the B1G has rational rules, UM would be going to the Rose Bowl.
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*These are the only rules I could find on the web, as reported by Rittenberg in 2011. So, I am assuming the rules have not changed. http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/39509/reviewing-b1gs-bowl-sele…
**I report the Sagarin PREDICTOR rankings because these are the ones most likely to predict actual game outcomes. Here are Sagarin PREDICTOR rank and rating, average Sagarin rank of the top 2 OOC opponents and B1G record for each team.
UM #24 82.05 TOP 2 OOC OPPONENTS; ROAD ND #1 AND ALA#3 (#1-2 BCS), B1G 6-2
NEB #29 80.04 HOME ARKANSAS STATE #54, ROAD UCLA #19, B1G 7-2
NU #38 78.29 HOME VANDY #35 ROAD SYRACUSE #50, B1G 5-3
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:16 PM ^
Leaks are coming out UM to Outback and SEC team yet to be determined. We probably deserved no better than this game at 8-4.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:21 PM ^
source?
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:48 PM ^
Sources include: Phil Steele http://www.philsteele.com/bowls/12-13/bowlprojections.html
CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions
and ESPN (Mark Schlabach): http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8701557/2012-13-bowl-projections
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:23 PM ^
December 2nd, 2012 at 6:12 PM ^
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:18 PM ^
These bowls want to make money. No bowl, unless forced to, will take Northwestern over Michigan unless there is extenuating circumstances.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:24 PM ^
Common now that's just not fair. If Northwestern IS selected I am reasonably sure that some of their 1283 season ticket holders will make the trip to Florida to support the Cats.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:27 PM ^
The latest tweet on Rittenberg/Bennett's twitter says that Nebraska is very much in play for the Cap one. That's it.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:39 PM ^
Nebraska travels insanely well. They are a great pick for any bowl, even in consecutive years. I'm certain Capital One will choose well. NU will not travel nearly as well.
UM will also travel better than NU, so Outback will pick us, and NU will head to the Gator Bowl.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:24 PM ^
While Northwestern did go 9-3, Michigan had a better conference record and defeated Northwestern in the head-to-head game. That, plus UM's tougher schedule, should give bowl officials plenty of defenisble reasons for selecting us over Northwestern (which they will do because of UM's larger and deeply-committed fan base).
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:39 PM ^
If he wants to do his job and make money, he'll invite Michigan. But if he wants to round up all of Northwestern's 8,000 strong fan base, I guess he'll invite his alma mater.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:49 PM ^
Ah, well, I hadn't factored that in.
I actually wouldn't mind going back to the Gator Bowl, if it would give us an easier opponent and a chance to wash the bad taste out of our mouths from that Waterloo game against Mississippi State.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:43 PM ^
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:29 PM ^
Sagarins rankings are fucking retarded. He had us outside of the top 25 after the regular season last year.
Today, he has USC #18 and Texas #14.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:45 PM ^
it probably has to with their #7 SOS rating (vs. Ore, Stan, UCLA and ND). In a sense, they had a problem much like ours.
If you think that Sagarin ratings are retarded, however, what do you think is a better way to rank teams? What evidence do you have that your method provides better predictions about who will win games?
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:57 PM ^
The big difference between our season and USC's is their Arizona game. Average team, USC lost. Had we not come back against NW or MSU, it would be comparable, but as it stands, we played 4 really tough teams, and lost 4 games. They played 4 really tough teams and lost 5. That's a difference. The teams they beat were no better than the ones we did.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:58 PM ^
umm, i'd rank them based on their performance over the season, not on hypothetical predictions based on the quality of their losses
December 2nd, 2012 at 2:01 PM ^
That's not a way to validate your belief in the polls.
December 2nd, 2012 at 2:07 PM ^
if we're basing polls exclusively on eye tests and not caring about losses, why play the regular season at all?
December 2nd, 2012 at 2:26 PM ^
but polls like Sagarin do not ignore losses or rely on eye tests. They derive from actual data on WL records, margins of victory and home field advantage.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:48 PM ^
I completely, completely agree with this. People see numbers on the computer polls and assume they're infallible science, but if the algorithm sucks, the rankings suck. I was all over Sagarin last year for how absurdly highly he rated all Big 12 teams (based on just a few out-of-conference wins), and I'm sure his rankings are a mess again this year. Honestly, I trust the AP poll much more than Sagarin.
December 2nd, 2012 at 2:07 PM ^
The AP poll includes writers with biases, like Fowler. He repotedly hates UM and consistently ranked UM lower than others this year.
The AP also ranked Ohio in the top few even though they had many close games and a terrible SOS (2nd worst among ranked teams).
If you want to really test the quality of the AP poll vs Sagainr, you need to see how well it predicts future games. I know the Sagarin poll is predictive. I don't think the AP is.
December 2nd, 2012 at 2:30 PM ^
I know the Sagarin poll is predictive. I don't think the AP is.
What does that mean? I promise you that when top 10 teams in the AP poll unranked teams, the top 10 teams win the majority of the time (controlling for home field advantage). Doesn't that make the AP poll predictive?
In theory, I love the idea of objective computer rankings - and I even like some of the computer rankings that are out there being used by the BCS. Sagarin's algorithm sucks, though, and he won't even let anyone see it.
December 2nd, 2012 at 3:32 PM ^
I meant that the AP is very limited, since it was not designed to be predictive eg If ND is ranked above ALA, does that mean ND is favored to beat ALA? I don't think so.
I do agree that there are other computer polls that rival the Sagarin.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:30 PM ^
As you well know, the bowl system has never been about which bowl teams "should" go to or which team "deserves" to go to which bowl, based on strength of schedule. It's fine to speculate about these things, but Michigan has probably been the beneficiary more often than been screwed by the way teams are selected, including last year.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:48 PM ^
I guess that the breaks go both ways.
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:42 PM ^
We want the Outback. It will give us a better matchup. period.
December 2nd, 2012 at 2:11 PM ^
December 2nd, 2012 at 1:50 PM ^
Cap One pick basically done: Georgia-Nebraska. Expect Michigan to Outback and Northwestern to Gator. B1G avoids Johnny Football
December 2nd, 2012 at 2:00 PM ^
So, South Carolina it is. We will probably be 7 point underdogs. I just hope Borges opens up the offense with a month to prepare. Give Denard some good film for the NFL and get Gardner prepared for a strong 2013.
Edit: I'd love to see a Denard/Devin/Norfleet package.
December 2nd, 2012 at 2:04 PM ^
RT @Mark_Schlabach: Now I'm hearing #UGA to Cap One vs#Nebraska; #LSU to Cotton; SC to Outback and A&M to Chick-fil-A & Miss St to Gator
December 2nd, 2012 at 2:39 PM ^
Using the updated Sagarin ratings, you would hypothetically see Nebraska as a 10-point underdog against Georgia right now, we would be about a 5-point underdog against South Carolina, and Northwestern would actually be slightly favored against Mississippi State. LSU would be only (by the model) a 2-point favorite against Texas if that's how the Cotton Bowl shapes up ultimately.
December 2nd, 2012 at 3:17 PM ^
I am not sure how well SC travels, but since they are so much closer to Tampa than us, I would expect them to have a lot more fans. While it's not a home game for them, I'd guess that their proximity would add a point or two to the spread.
It would be interesting to see whether geographic proximity predicts game outcomes and how much (if anything) it should add to spread. The same would apply to other sports, like BB, and the NCAA tournament. Yet, I don't know of any rating method that considers proximity.
December 2nd, 2012 at 4:51 PM ^
Many SEC teams actually don't travel all that well. We are often outnumbered at bowls, but not as dramatically as people think - it's often more like 60/40 against us, which is not that big of a deal (that's not counting empty seats, which are often like 20-30% of the stadium. Against SCar, it's possible we could be at 50/50.
December 2nd, 2012 at 2:38 PM ^
December 2nd, 2012 at 5:35 PM ^
December 2nd, 2012 at 8:19 PM ^
"Even if we had beaten the #1, #2, and #3 teams in the AP poll we still wouldn't have won the Big Ten Championship" (from UPMichigan in another thread)
In fact, we would not even have gotten a shot at the title in Indy.
So either the B1G is nuts or the AP poll is or both. I would vote for both (if I believed in polls).