Did We Just Watch the Turning Point Game of the Hoke Era?

Submitted by mGrowOld on

In retrospect turning points are always easy to see.  Looking back through history we can clearly mark the 1969 Ohio State game as the turning point in Bo's career and that victory as the marker that the Michigan program was changing for the better under his leadership.  But I don't know that too many people back in 1969 could predict just how good things would go over the next 20 years with Bo.

Rich Rod also had a turning point game and the similarities to yesterday's debacle are striking IMO.  Year three of his tenure and on October 30th, 2010, Michigan went to Penn State with two weeks to prepare and got beat soundly on national TV.  It was the game that virtually everyone points to as "the beginning of the end" of the RR regime as it became painfully obvious that we had a defense incapable of stopping anyone (even a true Freshman QB like Matt McGloin).  As everyone remembers, that season sputtered to a 7-6 finish despite our 5-0 start with the wheels coming completely off the wagon at the end.

Brady Hoke, in year three of his tenure, with two weeks to prepare, took his team to East Lansing yesterday and got drilled just like we did in Happy Valley in 2010 - albeit with a different side of the ball falling apart completely.  This team also started 5-0 but can anyone look at the remaining schedule and not say that a 7-6 finish this for this team is possible if not probable?   And would a steadily declining W-L record over three years be considered acceptable by the fan base or Dave Brandon?

To be clear I am NOT calling for Hoke to be fired here.  But I wonder, again with the benefit of hindsight, what would've happened in 2010 if Rich had fired Tony Gibson immediately after the PSU game and told Brandon the next day he needed to get a new Defensive Coordinator in next year?  Because that IS what I believe should happen with this year's team - Funk should be let go immediately and Hoke should tell Brandon today to start the search process for a new OC.  But because I don't forsee either of those events occurring I wonder if we'll look back at yesterday's game sometime in the future as the "beginning of the end" of the Hoke era.

 

SC Wolverine

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:14 AM ^

This may turn out to be true.  But our perspective right now should be that Rome was not built in a day.  The return of Michigan to its prominence will not happen by the fan base freaking out during the pains of the building process and the AD firing the coach so as to start all over again.  The reality is that building back from where Hoke started is a five or six year process.  And the youth of the O Line is not an excuse but a reality.  They will get abused by great defenses until we have sufficient maturity and experience on the line.  I don't like it either.  But we have to stick with the building process, knowing that it takes time.

BlueHills

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:35 AM ^

Unfortunately, they had less success at home, where they were annilated several times in battles like Cannae. Their home-field advantage was simply attriting the Carthaginians and their allies (some of who were Italian former city-states that weren't at all happy with Roman rule). 

SC Wolverine

November 3rd, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^

Extending the Rome-Michigan metaphor here, one chief reason for the defeat at Cannae was an unstable coaching situation.  At least we don't change coaches every day, like the Romans did back in the day!  Rome, like Michigan football, needed a patient dictator.  And Fabius Maximus suffered much abuse while he was slowly coaching up the Roman legions until they could handle the Carthaginian phalanx!   Fabius would appreciate our O-line conundrum...

Blarvey

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^

I understand that hyperbole and dramatic statements follow losses on sports boards but why is there always such a lack of perspective? MSU was one of the games many fans thought would be a loss. It was 16-6 going into the third quarter.

Yes, MSU dominated Michigan yesterday, but in a year where many predicted between 8-10 wins, I don't see how yesterday was any indication of wheels falling off or anything like that. There are four more games this year and none of us know exactly how it will play out.

If this team finishes strong, you may look at this as the turning point in the other direction. We don't know, but I really can't see how this loss changes much, other than it being uglier than we may have hoped.

BlueHills

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:29 AM ^

Certainly most of us didn't expect a perfect season with a lot of young players on the squad. But very few of us imagined a season where a Michigan team took the field and looked incompetent in half of its games.

Akron, UConn, PSU and now MSU were simply horrendous showings. I don't mind a competitive-looking loss, that happens. But there is very little excuse for what we are seeing, a Michigan team floundering and embarrassing itself.

However, just as I felt it was not smart planning to fire Rich Rod after only three seasons, unless a proven, elite replacement could be found, I feel the same way in this case. At this level, you don't simply let a coach go and hope that you find someone better. Only an inexperienced, arrogant rookie like Dave Brandon does that; one has to plan carefully. One hopes that Brandon has learned a little since he came on board (though the skywriting and student seating nonsense tends to lead one to the opposite conclusion).

A world-beater will come along, and that's when a move makes sense. Until then, plan on a steady diet of whoop-ass from OSU and other good teams.

WolverineMac

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:31 AM ^

Most people on this board were thinking 9-3, 8-4, maybe 10-2 as a small possibility at the beginning of the year.

Now were certainly closer to 9-3 or 8-4 but the sky isn't falling and we're very likely to achieve our realistic expectations.

I'm not sure what games we would have been ok with the team losing if we didn't anticipate losses to better teams...

Go Blue!!!

exmtroj

November 3rd, 2013 at 11:01 AM ^

I'm not sure it's just the losses, necessarily, but the manner in which those losses happened. Penn State was clearly winnable, but we had some major play calling issues. Yesterday saw a Michigan team go into East Lansing and just look helpless on the field. They were victims on almost every play and it was sickening to see. If you lose to a better team but play hard, with intensity and a sense of urgency, that's fine. Looking completely and utterly hopeless in year three is not. I didn't even mention the Akron and UConn games.

foreverbluemaize

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:33 AM ^

Lets keep in mind what Hoke did with the last of the class that Carr recruited. RR was the worst hire we could have made and in my opinion and we are still feeling the effects. RR had no idea how to recruit lineman. The o line play was horrible and has been for 2 years now.

Uper73

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:34 AM ^

Still too early to give up on team or Hoke. Most impartial observers thought this team would go 8-4 with losses to PSU, MSU, NW and OSU, but build for next year in the process. No one saw this o line debacle coming.

Turning point tweaks for Hoke are change out o line coach and running backs coach. As bad as O line has been this year the RB group has been bad since Hart graduated.

DetroitBlue

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:59 AM ^

Was anyone seriously predicting a loss to penn state? I expected to lose to state, but not to get our asses handed to us the way we did. But no way in hell anyone who knows anything about football thought we'd lose to penn state. They're an inferior team and we handed them that game, o ifs ands or buts about it

GoBlueDenver

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:40 AM ^

But I'd bet this very same team would be undefeated and ranked in the top 5 if Harbaugh was coach. I really struggle with the notion of the problems being on the players.

mgoSk

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:41 AM ^

Even if the win total ends up better this year than last year, it seems clear that this year's schedule is easier than last year's. I can't help but feel like there's a regression going on, and that may have everything to do with who was around personell-wise in '11 vs '12 vs '13, and that some games which were 50/50 went Michigan's way two years ago. However, I think I speak for a lot of people that excuses can be made, perhaps, for the two losses this year, but the Akron and Uconn game, I still cannot understand. Sure, RR lost to Toledo, couldn't win a big ten game to save his job, but he certainly didn't seem to be struggling against vastly inferior opponents in his third year despite having a woeful defense.

Unfortunately, some hires don't work out, like RR, but he at least improved in the win column each year. Even if he was never going to work in Ann Arbor, there's little doubt given his career at WVU that the guy CAN build a program and compete at the highest level. I'll be very interested to see how he does at Arizona. To be fair to Brady, every coach has to start somewhere in the major 5-6 conferences, but it remains to be seen what kind of coach he really is. If things go sour in the long run, I'd hope Brandon or whoever the AD is goes after someone more in RR's mold, in the sense that they have proven success competing against big time schools and that they're innovative on at least one side of the ball. I just hope by that point, should it come to that point at all, that the Michigan coaching job is a job someone would want to take and move forward, and not just be satisfied with the built-in tradition and fan base.

I don't doubt at all the sincerity of Brady and his staff, nor their work ethic. At the same time, the whole "this is Michigan fergodsakes" just seems more and more like all bark and no bite.

Fanbases are fickle, I don't discount myself from that statement, but I still be like damn watching this team.

Reader71

November 3rd, 2013 at 8:41 PM ^

2010: Beat FBS UMass by 7 @ home. Beat 5-7 Indiana by 7 in Bloomngton. Lost to 11-2 MSU by 17 @ home. Lost to 8-5 Iowa by 10 @ home. Lost to 7-6 PSU by 10 in Happy Valley. Beat 7-6 Illinois by 2 in 3OT @ home. Lost to 11-2 Wisconsin by 20 @ home. Lost to 9-4 Miss St. by 38 in a bowl. They DID struggle against undermanned teams (UMass, Indiana, Illinois), regardless of your memory. They lost 3 times at home, whereas our losses have come on the road.

Mgodiscgolfer

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:43 AM ^

be beat so dramatically was a kick in the balls. I don't think anyone but a sparty slappy thought this game was going to be as bad as it was and I mean NOBODY even vegas had the line at or around 5. to perspective

WolverineMan1975

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:45 AM ^

Simple enough for an MSU grad to handle. If you don't recruit d lineman or o lineman for 2 years in and instead, get a bunch of slow, academically challenged midgets you will have problems down the line. Sack up, weather the storm, and realize that the # 1 and #2 players in the country believe in these coaches, so does anyone remotely close to the program

Firstbase

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:53 AM ^

M football is certainly not "back." It's hard to assess to what degree the inconsistencies are coaches vs. players issues. If I were to venture a guess, I'd say Michigan's woes are 40% coaching and 60% player related. 

Even with other coaches and philosophies, our team top to bottom just isn't as talented as we had hoped it would be at this point in time. Man-to-man we're a step slow and several muscle-pounds short. Akron and UConn illustrated that quite poignantly. 

This year, we're a middle-of-the-pack B1G team. Let's hope for better years ahead and hope this year's disappointing results won't be too detrimental to recruiting. 

Looking back, it's hard to remember too many times when I didn't look forward to watching the season finale against Ohio. This year is one of them, unfortunately.

 

 

 

 

mGrowOld

November 3rd, 2013 at 11:07 AM ^

No shit on the OSU game.  If it wasnt for the fact my daughter is coming back from NYC specifically to go to the game I'd have those tickets listed on Stub Hub right now.

But a couple of points of clarification (and i definitely enjoyed the banter)

1. I did NOT call for Hoke to be fired.  As a matter of fact I specifically said i did not want him fired - rather I'd like to see Funk gone this afternoon and Borges at season's end.

2. My post speculated a future day when Hoke has been fired, presumably because he wont make a move on his assistants and their lack of compentence drags him down with them. 

Now, I truly hope this doesnt happen.  And as some have pointed out, if we win the next three, are competitive (but ulitimately lose to OSU) I would consider the season a success given where the line stands.  But if we lose the three of the next four and stand 7-5 going into the bowl game I DO think trouble is brewing.  If not this year then certainly next when all our tough games are on the road instead of at home.

BlueSwave34

November 3rd, 2013 at 12:33 PM ^

Our fan base is not very loyal. You do realize if you put your tickets on stub hub you risking the chance that a buckeye fan will end up with them. I was at the 2009 game when Ohio fans took over the Big House. It fucking sucked.. I don't care what our record is going into that game we as fans should support our team. How do u think that makes our players feel when they run out to touch the banner in the best rivalry game in college football an then look in the stands an see half the stadium full of red?? That's not very supportive and I guarantee it has an affect on them. Michigan fans keep your tickets and keep those shitheads out of the Big House

mGrowOld

November 3rd, 2013 at 12:53 PM ^

You can question a lot about me but loyalty? No way. I live in Ohio and make te three hour one way drive every Saturday, usually attend one away game and have attended over 10 bowl games since I graduated in 1981. I have four season tickets and pay big dollars for the honor of buying them.
So if my zeal for the trip had been sapped by the funk/Borges shit storm and I choose to sell the tickets unpaid for I will do so unapologetically as it's the only real voice I have with the athletic department.

Sopwith

November 3rd, 2013 at 11:39 AM ^

When the scheme calls for Lewan to pass MSU's best defensive lineman to Fitz for a 1:1 block while Lewan blocks... nobody in particular... that's not putting your players in a position for their talent to succeed.  I feel like that's a microcosm of the bigger problem.  Talented players not being put in a position to maximize their success.

HarBooYa

November 4th, 2013 at 9:20 AM ^

The lewan release to fitz Scheme was asinine and clearly two weeks in the works. That said I don't think we have superstar talent. Conversely our cupboard is much fuller than most in our horrendous league and we should never have a showing like the bloodletting on Saturday to a team with equal or lesser talent.

Simple equation-if I have more tanks, ammo and weapons than you, shouldn't I usually win? Not so simply, depends on the general I guess.

nickb

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:56 AM ^

and it will not matter. What see today is what you will get ten years from now. He is who he is. A good man with limited football intelligence. He delegates and hopes for the best. HE DOES NOT PROVIDE HIS FOOTBALL TEAMS WITH PERSONALTY. They are mishmash of the various coaches. 

Football teams without indentity invariably fail. In the years he has coached Michigan his teams lacked an inner core. Thus the inconsistency of play and the slow degradation of performance. The sad fact is this cannot change even if he replaced coaches. The team is what the head coach is.  

What DB should do is look hard at the coaches on staff at Alabama, FSU, LSU and some other SEC teams. Pick off a highly prized coach and bring him in to run the program. The coach will have first hand knowledge as to how to recruit in the talent rich southeast area and know how to run championship programs.

Unfortunately, DB is not much of an executive. He almost ran Dominios pizza into the ground. When he left Dominos, it was near extinction. This is where the Michigan program is headed figuratively speaking.

NYMICH

November 3rd, 2013 at 10:56 AM ^

Probably.  But we won't know what direction the turn is for at least a year.

Fact of the matter is that Michigan has embarrassed itself at least 3 times this year.  I don't count Penn St.  Not a great game but there is no shame in losing a close game to PSU at PSU.

What concerns me, and a lot of other people apparently, is that there doesnt' seem to be any player development.  Excuses about youth can only last so long.  In a world where the last Heisman trophy winner was a redshirt freshman, and the leading candidate for this year's trophy is also a redshirt freshmen, saying youth is the sole cause of your problems is a poor excuse.  Other teams manage to play younger players and get away with it.  Other teams play freshman on the o-line and aren't nearly as bad as Michigan.  These guys should be getting better, but aren't.  That's a coaching problem.  And don't forget, with all the youth on that line, it has two starters that will be playing in the NFL next year.  How can it possibly still be this bad?  What will the line look like next year without two NFL-bound 5th year seniors on it?

Unless this team gets dramatically better in the trenches, starting this week, then Hoke will have some staffing decisions to make in the offseason.  At least he better.  Otherwise, Hoke is risking Brandon deciding it's time to pay Harbaugh whatever he wants to come coach Michigan in 2015.

CC_MFan

November 3rd, 2013 at 11:08 AM ^

I agree with the above posters mentioning how soft the team is.  Firing coordinators won't fix this.  It is a reflexion of the head coach.  I like Hoke, but I don't know if he can turn this area around.   Playing physically has nothing to do with scheme or talent, it is a mindset, an attitude.  The best teams in football are the best teams at the line of scrimmage.  All the skill guys in the world cannot make up for poor line play.  

I don't seek BH firing anyone this year, and next year will be a blowup year one way or another.  

 

Don

November 3rd, 2013 at 11:15 AM ^

There is no reason that the S&C staff should not be sharing some of the responsibility for this. When you've got an OL comprised at tackle and guard of 300+ lbs players not being able to dominate the line of scrimmage against horrible teams like Akron and UConn, I'm very skeptical that it's solely a question of blocking fundamentals.

Hannibal.

November 3rd, 2013 at 11:05 AM ^

I'd argue that the turning point game for Rodriguez was not Penn State in 2010 but Illinois in 2009.  That shitshow was the beginning of the end for RichRod, but most of us just didn't realize it at the time.  With that said, I can't envision a scenario in which Brady Hoke stays on as our coach more than another year or two without, at the very least, firing Darrell Funk.  Funk is every bit as bad as Tony Gibson, and at this point, it looks like we are about where we left off in 2010.  We may end up 7-6, or we may end up 8-5, which wouldn't be an improvement over the season that got RichRod fired, since we actually played a really hard schedule that year.  I actually like Hoke in that I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, but it's close to impossible at this point.  He is a cheerleader who needs good assistants to succeed, and he doesn't have those right now.  He has at least one catastrophically bad one.  He is a really good recruiter, but that just means that he is as good as Ron Zook.  And remember that Zook's recruiting fell apart in about year 4, once players realized that he sucked as a coach.  Barring some major changes, I'll be surprised if our 2015 class is as good as our 2012-2014 groups.  Hoke's time to win big is running out.   

Mannix

November 3rd, 2013 at 11:19 AM ^

It's fine to note where most thought this team's record would be: 9-3, 8-4 w losses to x,y &z.

It appears the manner in which 2 of the losses have come, notwithstanding how some of the wins have come, is the cause for concern.

I think arguments highlighting youth and great recruiting would have much more force if both losses showed progress. Likewise, the arguments would be stronger if the victories weren't pulled out of UM's collective arse.

If the next number of losses show signs of progress, there will be cautious optimism. If the s***show continues, all the arguments to have patience won't be enough to stem the flow of angst.

KBLOW

November 3rd, 2013 at 11:42 AM ^

This was what I was about to post after reading through the entire thread.  The perspective of many seems that since converntional wisdom put us as a  9-3ish team that, "What's the big deal?"  

However, the way both losses and most of the wins have gone have not only shown a team not playing up to potential, but a team that looks unprepared, inproperly motivated and ill-coached. Did anyone's 9-3 predictions ever considered an ass kicking like yesterday?  The manner in which a team loses does matter just as much as how many losses happen.   

Brick in The Wave

November 3rd, 2013 at 11:25 AM ^

I don't know if it is just the nature of internet board posting football fans or something else but we seem so reactionary. This board was full of 9-3 and 8-4 predictions preseason. Concern ranged from o and d line, lack of depth at WR, secondary questions etc. all of which have come to fruition to some degree (some way more than others). Prior to the State game most perdictions were for State because of a superior defense and the teams tendency to turn the ball over. Again we saw that come to fruition yesterday. So I guess I am surprised to see us lose our shit when things don't go our way. I think the problem with this board is it has become way to popular for its own good. Even the guy who sits next to me and smells like he rolled around in monkey feces before each game is a regular contributor to this board (at least that is what he claims). I don't think he honestly knows the difference between a running and passing play. Personally I think we win the next 3 games and Ohio being Ohio who knows...

KBLOW

November 3rd, 2013 at 11:49 AM ^

But did your prediction for a loss to State include the total ass kicking that went down yesterday?  

If it did, good for you and make sure to bet a lot next time. Of course, we could have played much better and still lost the game, but don't you see a problem in the fact of how bad the team looked and how little improvement the team (not just the O-line) has shown over the course of the year?

BTW: Turning point or no, Hoke needs at least one more year.  Borges?  Not so much.

Brick in The Wave

November 3rd, 2013 at 1:17 PM ^

I absolutely expected a better effort and I think the team looks poorly coached in a lot if areas. I don't know enough football to be too critical however. I guess I am just not as doom and gloom as others. I think Borges and Funk better have the resumes ready to go because if this board is any indication the pressure has to be building in DB's office.

CLord

November 3rd, 2013 at 4:49 PM ^

Bro, we almost lost to Akron uconn and Indiana.... Lost to a bad Psu team and got mauled by Lil Bro. People expected we would win most of our games handily and lose a few close ones to top teams. People also expected Borges would finally begin succeeding at a little man ball. No one expected 4343 turnovers, 27 for 27 and -48. People here know football enough to see beyond the misleading simplicity of the W L record. Oh and fire Borges.

GGV

November 3rd, 2013 at 9:48 PM ^

The shock has started to wear off.

 

yes, we are a spoiled fan-base.

no, the sky is not falling.

 

As others here have pointed out, RR neglected to recruit many offensive linemen in his final two years, and many of those he did were busts.  That give us our present underclassmen musical-chairs o-line.

 

What should be the results when an underclassmen line goes up against one of the better defenses in the nation? Just what we saw yesterday...