Did We Just Watch the Turning Point Game of the Hoke Era?
In retrospect turning points are always easy to see. Looking back through history we can clearly mark the 1969 Ohio State game as the turning point in Bo's career and that victory as the marker that the Michigan program was changing for the better under his leadership. But I don't know that too many people back in 1969 could predict just how good things would go over the next 20 years with Bo.
Rich Rod also had a turning point game and the similarities to yesterday's debacle are striking IMO. Year three of his tenure and on October 30th, 2010, Michigan went to Penn State with two weeks to prepare and got beat soundly on national TV. It was the game that virtually everyone points to as "the beginning of the end" of the RR regime as it became painfully obvious that we had a defense incapable of stopping anyone (even a true Freshman QB like Matt McGloin). As everyone remembers, that season sputtered to a 7-6 finish despite our 5-0 start with the wheels coming completely off the wagon at the end.
Brady Hoke, in year three of his tenure, with two weeks to prepare, took his team to East Lansing yesterday and got drilled just like we did in Happy Valley in 2010 - albeit with a different side of the ball falling apart completely. This team also started 5-0 but can anyone look at the remaining schedule and not say that a 7-6 finish this for this team is possible if not probable? And would a steadily declining W-L record over three years be considered acceptable by the fan base or Dave Brandon?
To be clear I am NOT calling for Hoke to be fired here. But I wonder, again with the benefit of hindsight, what would've happened in 2010 if Rich had fired Tony Gibson immediately after the PSU game and told Brandon the next day he needed to get a new Defensive Coordinator in next year? Because that IS what I believe should happen with this year's team - Funk should be let go immediately and Hoke should tell Brandon today to start the search process for a new OC. But because I don't forsee either of those events occurring I wonder if we'll look back at yesterday's game sometime in the future as the "beginning of the end" of the Hoke era.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:01 AM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:07 AM ^
I tend to agree (unless we got completely destroyed by OSU) that 9-3 heading to what should be a decent New Year's Bowl would be acceptable. But what if we continue to play badly on the road and lose to both Northwestern & Iowa and instead of 9-3 we're 7-5 and going to Memphis or New Mexico on Dec 21st to play another bleh team?
What then?
November 3rd, 2013 at 10:23 AM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 10:57 AM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 7:46 PM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:45 AM ^
who's offense couldn't do anything vs Purdue's D. What do we expect out of this team, below average?
November 3rd, 2013 at 10:14 AM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:03 AM ^
"Because that IS what I believe should happen with this year's team - Funk should be let go immediately and Hoke should tell Brandon today to start the search process for a new OC. But because I don't forsee either of those events occurring I wonder if we'll look back at yesterday's game sometime in the future as the "beginning of the end" of the Hoke era."
I will let this thread stand because it poses a specific question, but as to this point in particular, I don't think you'll see this happen necessarily. If there is a change here, it is more likely (we could debate "probable") that you would see Borges kept and Funk replaced if any change was made here. The nature of this staff and indeed the athletic department seems to be to make strategic changes before they consider wholesale changes.
Is this a turning point? If by that you mean that it's all downhill from here, then obviously not. Indeed, not sure why anyone would honestly believe it was. Are there problems? Obviously.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:05 AM ^
But this season is the turning point.
I support the team and the program but I rapidly losing faith in the staff. I cannot get my head around how poorly prepared that team has looked this year. To me, they look scared for the first half of the game and then defeated the during the second half.
Like the saying goes: talk is cheap - but action is expensive, There has been enough talk out of AA about the team and what they are going to do - but very little action to back it up.
Let's see how they do next week. Maybe this 3rd wake up call of a game will finally have the team ready to win in a convincing manner.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:06 AM ^
We just have to be careful not to keep lowering the bar. I see that happening here a lot lately, giving just a little on timeframes and deadlines for progress. I see the Hoke years as a response to the RR years, so to repeat them makes no sense to me. But I think firing someone without a better choice waiting in the wings is foolish (perhaps that happened with the RR firing?). So I'm not calling for a firing, but I would give him one more year, and not two, to turn things around. I don't think we have to win the B1G next year, but if we have another year like this year, I think Dave Brandon better be looking for a better replacement mid-season.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:07 AM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:08 AM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 10:04 AM ^
This +1000000. Hoke just seems happy to be here living out a lifelong dream. At no point during yesterday's debacle did he exhibit any fire or show with his body language any sense of urgency. Sure the guy is lovable which goes a long way in recruiting and winning over players and parents, but Wayne Fontes was a likeable guy as coach of the Lions as well. We like to bash coaches like Saban, Meyer, and Miles on this board for various reasons (many legit) but those guys win and they would never be chuckling on the sidelines during an absolute beatdown from their second biggest rival.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:09 AM ^
Is that your wife in your avatar? Seriously?
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:11 AM ^
She's hot for being 50!
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:14 AM ^
44 and thanks.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:38 AM ^
Yes, I do enjoy your avatar. You are obviously proud.
November 4th, 2013 at 8:28 AM ^
Just to be clear, we are talking age here and not something else, right?
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:10 AM ^
in the lack of development of our younger player. Even on defense our LB and DB give up big plays. There may be slight improvement on the DLINE. May be our WR on offense. But special teams have had problems all year with no improvement noticed. Gardner is still a very inconsistent QB. Well at least we don't have to worry about Gardner leaving for the NFL, like we thought was possible after the ND game. Overall another disappointing season but better than '08, '09 and '10 IMO!
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:11 AM ^
Were Michigan dammit.....our dinosaur style of football will dominate because we will out execute you.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:11 AM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:16 AM ^
Changes to the coaching staff definitely need to be made, but I think you have to at least give Hoke two more years before talking about his demise. Especially considering the last regime and how completely different their philosophies are. It seems to me that our only significant problem is the O-line. If we had a good O-line we'd be 8-0 right now. I think it was Brian that said it, RR didn't recruit O-lineman and we are seeing the impact. Nearly every one of our O-lineman are young and seeing the field for the first time this year. Let's give them a season or two more of starts and then judge. With the talend of recruits coming in I see wins on the horizon even with no changes at OC.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:17 AM ^
I think the overreactions here are a good reminder of why I've curtailed both my internet use age and football watching. Hoke has a lot to prove but he's earned the right to at least 5 years on the job to see the attempted rebuild through. 2011 was a mirage, there was always going to be this dip once RR's guys graduated.
Borges should get one last year, too, for Devin's sake. Funk needs to go, though.
November 3rd, 2013 at 3:00 PM ^
You've watched those games and think 9-4 is "more probable" than 7-5?
November 3rd, 2013 at 7:55 PM ^
November 4th, 2013 at 2:41 AM ^
yep... and in the rearview mirror, three years from now when Akron is nothing but a half memory, that 9-3 record will look acceptable.
November 4th, 2013 at 6:19 PM ^
how we struggle horribly on the road. This year. Last year. The year before that. No road game is a "gimmie" at this point. Even to Iowa and Northwestern. And while the team is still unbeaten at home, it's hardly invincible. Nebraska is hardly a "gimmie" either.
November 9th, 2013 at 8:39 PM ^
Willing to revisit the issue now?
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:17 AM ^
I don't know what to think any more. The offensive line is a joke but part of me can't understand how the defensive staff is getting such a pass. The last 4 possessions PSU had in regulation were all 50yd + drives where they scored 3 times and missed a FG on the other. IU comes in and torches the defense and if it wasn't for IU's starting QB getting hurt who knows if UM pulls out the victory (yeah, IU puts up points to an extent on everyone). MSU - UM's offense scores on the first possession and what's the defense do? They have a massive breakdown and let MSU get in FG range on one possession. Then the first half is kind of going to form until on MSU's last possession they march down the field and score a TD - huge drive. MSU converted a number of 3rd and longs on the drive. Second half starts and MSU's offense again marches down the field and kicks a FG. That's 2 straight possessions book marking halftime where the defense gives up 10 points. I'm tired of watching a bend but don't break defense that makes the opposing teams QB look like he should be in consideration for all conference honors.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:51 AM ^
Mattison should be receiving as much heat as Borgess and Funk. I think his absolute lack of aggressiveness is insane. Everyone ends up complaining about how our CB's and Safeties can't cover......well, it's because they have to do it for 10 seconds because Greg is bringing 3 and 4. MSU's secondary looks great because they opposing QB has no time and is constantly getting drilled.
November 3rd, 2013 at 11:24 AM ^
^THIS^ So much.
November 3rd, 2013 at 7:59 PM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 10:35 AM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:20 AM ^
To be clear I am NOT calling for Hoke to be fired here. . . . what I believe should happen with this year's team - Funk should be let go immediately and Hoke should tell Brandon today to start the search process for a new OC.
You say you don't want him to be fired, but you're asking for two extremely unrealistic things - that he fire a coach midseason and have his AD go behind his OC's back during the season to line up a replacement. Putting aside the fact that the AD has nothing to do with hiring assistants (other than allocate money), you're basically demanding that Brady be an asshole who lies to his coordinator about his job security, and why would an OC want to work for him if that were the case?
I'm certain you won't get your wish on these. He may make staff changes, but they won't come until after the season, which is the proper thing to do. If he lets a guy go, he'll be upfront with him.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:25 AM ^
Oh really? Well LAST year Wisconsin did that very thing (fired their O Line coach two games into the season) and replaced him with a graduate assistant. And things worked out pretty good for them wouldnt you say?
So it's not unrealistic and it's not something that hasnt been done and it's not a completely crazy idea. It just won't be done here.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:44 AM ^
I didn't say it's never happened at all, just that it's very unlikely. Brett Bielema has a reputation as an asshole, so it's not surprising he'd break protocol on this. SOP is to let coaches finish the season and evaluate them then. Do we really want to follow Bielema's footsteps?
And surely, you can't really want Hoke to be a coward and lie to Borges about his job security while secretly planning to stab him in the back. Those aren't the actions of a leader, and they aren't very conducive to finding a good replacement, anyway. Just as people feared that RichRod would never get a good DC after he hung Shafer out to dry, Hoke's chances of finding a good OC would probably be compromised if he was dishonest to his current one.
Let the year play out. If we finish poorly, Hoke will probably make changes. There is no reason to believe that in-season staff changes are somehow better than off-season changes, when the coach has time to reflect and conduct interviews. Right now Hoke has to think about playing Nebraska.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:19 AM ^
We got our butts kicked on both side of the ball yesterday. 168 total yards, -48 rushing on offense. We gave up 394 total yards on defense. 252 of them passing to a not that great quarterback who missed wide open receivers with regularity.
IMO, we looked totally unprepared for State yesterday and that rests entirely on the coaching staff. Not sure where we go from here but it can't get much worse. We could have easily lost to Akron and UConn(fer Gods sake) making us 4-4 on the season and Indiana wasn't a cake walk.
End rant.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:27 AM ^
Our think our D played decent, given the complete lack of offense, until that 97-yd drive. The problem is we don't have anyone other than Ryan who can rush the QB. Mattison doesn't get a free pass from me at all, but it wasn't really bad until the 2nd half. Indiana lights up everyone, including MSU.
Even the last drive of the 1st half, which sucked, could have been helped if Hoke used a TO after MSU rushed to the line on the play they hit Fowler for the TD. We looked screwed up and Hoke has 2 TOs and 30 seconds left. Head coach's job to see that and call a TO. MSU may have scored a TD anyway, but likely would have gotten 3 and only been up 9-6 at half, then 12-6 after opening drive in 2nd half.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:21 AM ^
After a crappy 1st spouse (Rich Rod), he looked good at the start. NO - I'm not speaking from marriage experience here NOR saying Hoke needs to go now, but he's been given a long grace period. This is HIS team now.
Look back at Lloyd's early years. He was given the job in 1995 by a bumbling AD. During his second season, we had the 16-0 blown lead meltdown at NW, a horrid 9-3 debacle at Purdon't (whose coach was technically fired the week before the game), a turnover and blocked-punt fest loss at home to PSU - then going into Columbus as 17 point dogs and winning 13-9.
I don't consider this loss as his turning point - who really thought this team would win yesterday? The score and way we lost - sure that sucked!
The next 4 games are his turning point. Anything less than 3-1 will put him on the warm seat going into next year. Brandon isn't going to dump him unless we finish 7-6 AND we go 7-5 next year.
November 4th, 2013 at 1:17 PM ^
The majority of predictions on this board were a Michigan win...
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:27 AM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:32 AM ^
This team also started 5-0 but can anyone look at the remaining schedule and not say that a 7-6 finish this for this team is possible if not probable?
Yes. UM's remaining games are @Iowa, @Northwestern, Nebraska and Ohio State (not in that order, obviously). OSU would appear to be a likely loss. That would put us at 3 losses on the season. Nebraska will likely fall to us at home, and we will win in Evanston. That puts us at eight wins.
That leaves the Iowa game. At Kinnick, but against a team that plays a style of offense we're designed to stop and who doesn't play defense nearly as well as MSU. That's the difference between 8-4 and 9-3. Now, if you'll remember, when we started, the realistic predictions out of everyone and their brother was 8-4 to 9-3. There were hopeful predictions that went higher, but nobody realistically thought we were a ten win team unless Devin played out of his mind the whole season, which hasn't happened.
In other words, we are exactly where we thought we'd be. And yet everyone is freaking out like this is some kind of super failure by the whole coaching staff from top to bottom. There needs to be shakeups on the offensive side of the ball, I agree. But to say that we're going to lose to the worst Nebraska and Northwestern teams in years is fatalist nonsense.
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:40 AM ^
November 3rd, 2013 at 9:56 AM ^
The only games we are likely to be uncompetitive in this season were yesterday and against OSU. Obviously the loss at PSU stings and makes this whole process a little more painful, as do the two awful games against lesser competition early in the season. Obviously, you don't want to be uncompetitive against your two biggest rivals, but both of those teams are coached by top flight coaches who have players that match their systems and have had extensive success at this level before.
I'm in agreement that we need to shake some things up offensively. I'm not of the opinion that the whole house is burning down.
November 3rd, 2013 at 12:04 PM ^
I agree with a lot of what you said and I think you agree with a lot of what the board is saying. The whole house may not be burning down but there are issues on the offensive side of the ball. The defense is not perfect but we have a proven, experienced coordinator who is stockpiling talent on that side of the ball which should result in some more playmakers which will bring the defense to an elite level.
The offense is a lot less certain right now and people are rightly questioning the staff. Let's see what they do for the rest of the season but people have a right to be upset since our record is really close to being a whole lot worse.
November 3rd, 2013 at 1:10 PM ^
I think you're right. I'm just arguing against the idea that 7-5 is a likely outcome for the rest of the season. Both Nebraska and Northwestern are simply too mediocre/bad for that to be a likely outcome.
November 4th, 2013 at 7:31 AM ^
Why, exactly, should we have been uncompetitive against MSU?
If you were to rank the offensive units of each team it would go:
MSU Defense
Michigan Defense
Michigan Offense
MSU Offense
We should have been competitive. Its ridiculous to think otherwise.
November 3rd, 2013 at 10:09 AM ^
We could fill the schedule with Akron, Connecticut, etc. and have last minute and overtime wins every game but not be a good football team.
Our offensive and defensive play both stink no matter what the record shows. One or too lapses and lucky wins maybe but that does not describe this team.
There is a standard of play we need to look at. If we play up to that standard and still lose to a better team, I think I can live with that.
November 3rd, 2013 at 10:54 AM ^
So is the idea that we would barely escape by the skin of our teeth at home against Akron, and on the road against a horrid UConn team.
Sometimes "fatalist nonsense" is nothing more than a clear-headed recognition of reality.
November 3rd, 2013 at 1:14 PM ^
I realize that everyone is in the middle of the Ultimate Ennui Trip right now, but this team is playing significantly better at this point in the season than they were against either UCONN or Akron.