DetNews: "experts" pick IU +10 / Wojo UM 48-44 - Time for this team to break free from 2009

Submitted by jtmc33 on

http://www.detnews.com/article/20101001/OPINION03/10010347/1004/sports/It-s-still-your-father-s-Big-Ten--but-not-for-long

So, our local "experts" pick a tight shoot-out (as does the national media -- except for USA Today who has a 34-20 prediction).  Chappell and his WRs deserve respect, however, their running game is suspect at best.  But 48-44?  

So, the question is this --- does our defense deserve such disrespect to assume a one-dimentional offense can pass deep enough to keep their running game relevant?  Will UM just rush 3 all game in fear of the passing game, using nickel-back Avery and dropping Mouton in coverage all game and letting IU nickel-and-dime us all day. I don't see it.

This is the game UM opens up the blitzing from Ezeh up the middle and T. Gordon / C. Johnson from the edge.  Chappell throws his first and second picks of the year.  IU's run game cannot contribute enough to open up their offense.  IU maxes out at 24 points and UM's offense goes 37+.

If UM beats IU 48-44 then we all need to accept a 6-6 season and the Dallas bowl... stories about a repeat of 2009 will fill our MGoBoard for weeks.  Time for Wojo and clan to realize this isn't 2009.     Time for the defense to make that point clear.

MGoBoard
Football

jtmc33

October 1st, 2010 at 10:38 AM ^

More of a statement about Wojo's contention that our defense is so horrid that it will allow 44 points to a one-dimentional IU team; if he is right, that would mean that any and every game is, at best, a 50/50 (and obviously Iowa, Wisco, OSU and MSU are flat-out losses to their potent offenses)

I think his prediction is rediculous.   By his reasoning, if our offense has an off day and only scores 27(!) against PSU, Illinois and Purdue, then our Wojo-predicted-horrid-defense would probably lose those games 30-27.

Joined: 04/15/2009

MGoPoints: 10053

Meeechigan Dan

October 1st, 2010 at 1:12 PM ^

+1 for you because I so want this to be. I think we take Iowa, however, Sparty always comes out like gangbusters on D against M (see last year) even if they have a defense made up of a 10 squirrels and a great LB. They usually fold late, but with their O, I worry BIG TIME we are suddenly down by 14.

Joined: 07/02/2008

MGoPoints: 2319

ChasingRabbits

October 1st, 2010 at 10:28 AM ^

Hate to nit pick, but  if we outscore indy, why would we not be able to outscore Ill and Pur too?  So 7-5 at least.  That said, I think we will be just fine. We will be focused and our tackling will be solid.  They will put up less than 30 and we will put up more than 40.

Joined: 01/19/2010

MGoPoints: 1493

Magnus

October 1st, 2010 at 10:36 AM ^

Our defense is really, REALLY bad.  I think we should keep that in mind when asking questions like "Can [insert team here] take advantage of ___________ part of our defense?"

The answer will pretty much be YES for the remainder of the season.

Joined: 07/17/2008

MGoPoints: 166007

Meeechigan Dan

October 1st, 2010 at 10:49 AM ^

He doesn't go in for the "emperor's clothes" thing. Gotta a bunch of nanny state police circling the boards looking for unaccepable speech. They might want to listen more; I have disagreed with Magnus in the past, but I agree far more.

Joined: 07/02/2008

MGoPoints: 2319

Magnus

October 1st, 2010 at 10:52 AM ^

To be honest . . . no.  I see progress in a few players from last year to this year (JT Floyd, for one), but I haven't really seen progress from Game 1 to Game 4.  But it's kind of hard to see progress when we've played three patsies and Notre Dame.  None of those games were a very good measure for our defense, and the biggest test (ND) was muted a bit because they were missing their starting QB for 26 minutes of it.

Joined: 07/17/2008

MGoPoints: 166007

Magnus

October 1st, 2010 at 11:34 AM ^

In three years, I haven't really seen Michigan's defensive coaches outscheme anyone.  So...I really just feel like it's a matter of players making plays.

MSU's offense looks pretty potent.  I'm probably more afraid of OSU's offense because they have better playmakers, and I think Pryor might have a field day if we only rush three.  But if OSU's #1, then MSU is #2 on the remaining schedule.

Joined: 07/17/2008

MGoPoints: 166007

mtzlblk

October 1st, 2010 at 12:36 PM ^

It is analogous to handing someone eggs & cheese and then expecting them to make a Denver omelette. We have good eggs and some high quality cheese (although perhaps not quite aged sufficiently), but not nearly all the ingredients required for anything beyond a very basic scheme/omelette. I think we are all familiar with the shortages in recruiting (before and after, not pointing fingers), attrition and injuries that have created an undermanned defense, so I won't go into that. It is what it is. The scheme to date has been to mitigate weaknesses in the defense and come out with a W. I don't know that they have the tools to deploy an extensive set of more complicated schemes and the few they are able to deploy they are not going to expose in games where they are not required to do so. The by-product of that might be that we don't have the luxury of a huge point margin in some early games and we cede more yards, big plays, third downs to some teams early on that in the end don't matter as much because we get the W overall. I would rather beat IU/BG/UCONN by fewer points and give up 100-200 extra yards than provide more important B10 opponents with video of every scheme I have in the bag. We can go for style points in 1-2 years when we have recruited more/better depth and have more experienced players on the field. Notre Dame is the fly in that ointment where we were very close to losing and getting torched regularly and there was nothing the defense was able to do about it and no new/different scheming in sight. Hopefully IU is much worse than ND...we shall see. Of course, it could be that GERG & RR have nothing up their sleeve defensively and that we are really looking at a scheme that is solely intent on covering for weaknesses by slowing defenses down enough to cause drive killing mistakes, which given the players on hand may be the best alternative for right now.

Joined: 01/20/2009

MGoPoints: 5019

swdude12

October 1st, 2010 at 10:37 AM ^

Im hopeing that they didnt want to show to much on Defense against Umass and BG....ya know blitz schemes and coverages.  But i doubt thats the case.  I hope we get a lot of pressure from our front and force chappelle into some bad descions and just hope our Secondary is on there game and in the right place.

Joined: 09/01/2009

MGoPoints: 1880

los barcos

October 1st, 2010 at 10:40 AM ^

So, the question is this --- does our defense deserve such disrespect to assume a one-dimentional offense can pass deep enough to keep their running game relevant?

yes

Will UM just rush 3 all game in fear of the passing game, using nickel-back Avery and dropping Mouton in coverage all game and letting IU nickel-and-dime us all day.

probably.

 

I don't see it.

i really hope you're right but im expecting the worse saturday.  not a loss, per se, but i think its going to be ugly.

 

Joined: 03/27/2009

MGoPoints: 10798

snowcrash

October 1st, 2010 at 10:42 AM ^

Indiana put up 38 on W Ky and 35 on Akron, neither of which probably have a single player who would start for even our sketchy defense. They haven't been able to run on any of their tomato cans. Our offense doesn't turn it over. Why would anyone expect them to hang 44 on us? 

Joined: 07/22/2008

MGoPoints: 6620

Doctor Wolverine

October 1st, 2010 at 12:00 PM ^

I agree 100%.  Peolpe are looking back at 2009 and predicting the worst.  I think our defense comes out as motivated as they've been all season.  I can't imagine Indiana scoring more than 28 on us (maybe if they get an extra touchdown once we have our third string in and are up by twenty +).  Final score: UM 49 - Indiana 27.

Joined: 08/13/2009

MGoPoints: 3045

Drock

October 1st, 2010 at 12:03 PM ^

I'm not saying that Indiana will hang 44 on us but with our fast paced offense I'm guessing Indiana will have more chances to put up points on us then if they faced a more traditional offense that ate up clock time and limited Indiana's TOP.

Joined: 04/09/2009

MGoPoints: 223

Meeechigan Dan

October 1st, 2010 at 12:23 PM ^

Which is why I argued, in another thread I started, that we adopt an almost insanely agressive attacking D that either blows up the opponent or gets burned quickly. Expand the touches for the O and avoids UMass quality TOP type drives that is the number one defense against the Denardening.

Joined: 07/02/2008

MGoPoints: 2319

exmtroj

October 1st, 2010 at 10:42 AM ^

It's absolutely pathetic, and being in denial of that fact will make the rest of the season absolutely devastating to anyone expecting 10 wins.  Expect less and be pleasantly surprised if it turns out better.  We might be better off going across the street and marching AA Pioneer's defense into the Big House.

Joined: 10/24/2008

MGoPoints: 3318

Crime Reporter

October 1st, 2010 at 10:49 AM ^

I don't share Brian's optimism that we're going to nuke Indiana. I hope like hell I'm wrong.

They are going to move the ball against our defense and put up points. Hopefully we cause some turnovers. Either way, I see a close game in the high-20s or low-30s.

Joined: 12/19/2008

MGoPoints: 21723

Don

October 1st, 2010 at 10:58 AM ^

of the value of Sagarin rankings of our opponents and their schedules, as well as statistical rankings of offenses and defenses of UM and our opponents. I'll be surprised if the game isn't a down-to-the-wire shootout, but then I thought Carvin Johnson was going to miss a good part of the season, too.

I am curious why DR is listed at only 75% when the coaches said he was basically 100% with just a sore knee. That's a pretty sore knee.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148288

Quail2theVict0r

October 1st, 2010 at 10:56 AM ^

I don't see the 6-6 if we win 48-44. Indiana is still better IMO, and in most opinions, than Purdue and Illinois - especially Purdue with their three best players out for the season. If we get the win then it's at least a 6 win season, more likely a 7 or 8 still.

Joined: 12/01/2008

MGoPoints: 16503

MGlobules

October 1st, 2010 at 11:02 AM ^

a) some intern/kid who wants to be a sports journalist makes a list of the games

b) he puts it on Niyo's desk

c) Niyo spills coffee on it, then takes a pen--at some point during the day--and puts some checkmarks on it, chuckling here, shrugging there, etc

c) Angelique shrugs at four our of five of the picks, re-checks the spread, considers looking up somebody's record to help with a pick, notices her deadline is approaching, thinks 10 might be a lot for Michigan in Bloomington, checks Indiana, gives it to WOJO;

c) Wojo eats a coney dog on top of while watching girls kissing on youtube, notices it's there, wipes some chili niblets off of it, completes it in 12 seconds without a thought. . . 

Take these people seriously at your own risk.

Joined: 11/17/2008

MGoPoints: 47547

Chadillac Grillz

October 1st, 2010 at 11:05 AM ^

make me sick to my stomach with their bias and sensational garbage...Jesus Christ I didn't realize Wisconsin literally had 485 lb. lineman to block for Paul Bunyan (John Clay) to walk through, MSU had  a stable of huge brusing/unstoppable backs...and that Rich Rod pissed himself last week and can't coach worth shit. This shit is like Freep 2.0.

Joined: 01/04/2010

MGoPoints: 2740

3rdGenerationBlue

October 1st, 2010 at 11:08 AM ^

2 cents prediction:

  • IU will score 4 - 5 times, mostly TDs and FG or two
  • Michigan will score 6 - 7 times, mostly if not all TDs b/c of poor kicking
  • Final score in the range of 38 - 35 to 49 - 24

Joined: 08/11/2009

MGoPoints: 1209