Det. News Article predicting (number of) Michigan wins this season
There is an article at the Detroit News predicting the Michigan win total in 2015.
LINK: 2015 Predicted MIchigan Football win total.
The tag at the end of the article with info on the author:
Ed Feng has a Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Stanford and runs the sports analytics site The Power Rank.
Feng predicts a total of 7.7 wins for Michigan. There are 7 games he has as almost certain or very likely wins, 4 toss up games, and one we are likely to lose: Ohio State.
One major factor: between regression to the mean, and Baxter as Special Teams coach, Feng predicts Michigan will be much better in terms of the number of turnovers. Peppers as a superstar could also make a huge difference. On the negative side of things, if Rudock is injured, and none of the other quarterbacks can put it all together, we could struggle.
It is encouraging to see a prediction of 8 wins. I personally think that Michigan does better, with the "Harbaugh factor," and ends up with a 9 - 3 record.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:30 PM ^
I will strongly bet him that Michigan's exact total of wins will not be 7.7
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August 17th, 2015 at 5:43 PM ^
Well the .7 means we are leading a game almost at the end of the third quarter, very probable.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^
But I bet he's wrong about that number.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
how would an engineer know anything about sports?
August 17th, 2015 at 3:40 PM ^
STICK TO ENGINEERING
August 17th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^
At least his degree isn't in computer engineering. People with computer engineering degrees talking about sports is the WORST!!
August 17th, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^
It'd be interesting to see the correlation between engineers and sports bloggers. And for another angle, it'd be interesting to see more demographics on the readership of mgoblog . . . how many are engineers, how many are lawyers, how many are students, etc., etc.
August 17th, 2015 at 6:34 PM ^
I happen to know BiSB is a dog.
August 17th, 2015 at 5:45 PM ^
Well, according to Da'Shawn Hand they really do:
"On top of that, Dean Karr, the engineering dean, he's a football guy...."
August 17th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
His methodology is flawed.
"The preseason model is simple but accurate. However, it makes no adjustments for Harbaugh, a coach who engineered remarkable turnarounds with Stanford and the San Francisco 49ers." - quote from article
He uses a statistical calculation based on the previous 4 years which is invalid in this case for the very simple reason that there is a new head coach. His assumptions are based on the program performance itself irrespective of who is coaching.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^
So even Hoke goes 7.7-4.3 in 2015. Dunno about that.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^
This almost assumes Hoke is the coach and the team gets about 8 wins.
August 17th, 2015 at 4:42 PM ^
If Hoke could get 8 wins, Harbaugh could probably get like 18!
August 17th, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^
I don't think its very far-fetched that a Hoke led Michigan gets 7-8 wins this year. That's why I think a Harbaugh led Michigan gets at least 10.
August 17th, 2015 at 5:42 PM ^
I'm not so sure. We don't have Rudock with Hoke. We still have Funk. And we still have 10 man punt teams. And that's just what I can think of getting ready to board a plane.
August 18th, 2015 at 2:21 PM ^
It's all conjecture at this point, obv. But if Hoke had stayed? With his track record...I don't see how we could've improved. Lotta talent the last few years, and I'm not sure that the same coaches hitting some sort of development point where the talent immediately blossoms.
August 17th, 2015 at 6:48 PM ^
I'll reduce those numbers by 1 and agree.
August 18th, 2015 at 2:41 AM ^
7-5 last year. If he was a better coach he would have beat Rutgers on the road and Maryland at home. But I'm happy he ended up 5-7. If Hoke was still coach, I would say 6-6 may be 7-5. Harbaugh will be 8-4 but could end up with 10 wins this season!
August 17th, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^
I mean it makes a lot of sense, change in coaching isn't a variable you can measure. Sure Harbuagh is a great coach but he also went 4-8 his first year at Stanford because he didn't have enough talent to really do anything else. Talent is the most important predictor, expecially in year one of a coach. What this guys model says is pretty much that even Hoke would get to 7 wins this year (and considering he manged to get to that 3 out of 4 years it isn't that far fetched) and there are 4 toss up games that coach matters. Because coaching was shitty last year the numbers are guess us losing 3 out of 4 toss ups and whether you bet the over or under on the hat is how many game you think Harbaugh is worth. If he is worth to games over Hoke the numbers suggest we could get to 10 wins. If you think he is worth 1 more game you get 9 wins. If you think he is a better coach but a coaching change cancels out the benefit you get 8 wins and if you think a coaching change is a negative factor in your one you get 7 wins. I'm hoping Harbuagh plus two toughest games at home gets to 10 wins but really it all depends on how ready the team is to go at the beginning of the year. Beat Utah and BYU 10 wins is on the table, split and its probably 9 wins, lose both and 8 is the most likely.
August 17th, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^
You can't come up with a methodology that accounts for Harbaugh. Ed's model is flawed but so are all models. If his model weren't flawed then we wouldn't need to play the games and it wouldn't be a prediction, just a statement of fact.
August 17th, 2015 at 8:29 PM ^
Not all models are flawed.
<See, now is when I'd post a Kate Upton gif, but I believe they're still banned. Sigh.>
August 17th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^
Not trying to be a smart ass or anything, but how does one statistically factor a new head coach?
August 17th, 2015 at 6:45 PM ^
The model doesn't claim precision.
"Despite its simplicity, the model has predicted the game winner in over 70 percent of games since the 2005 season."
Feng clearly states that the model doesn't factor in the Harbaugh factor. Therefore your criticism is flawed. So assign a strenght to the H factor. Is he good +1, or +n wins in those toss-up games?
I'm going to go +1 on the H factor. +1 on the Peppers factor for 9.7 wins.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^
win .7 of one of the toss up games?
August 17th, 2015 at 3:37 PM ^
Well, comparing Jim's first year to Hoke's last season, I think having Harbaugh and his staff (along with some matured players, too, of course) are good for at least another two wins. Harbaugh would not have lost to Rutgers and Maryland. Seven sounds about right, but we have a fairly favorable schedule, so I will not be surprised if Michigan wins eight or more.
August 17th, 2015 at 5:25 PM ^
7- 5 likely ( will not lose due to bad coaching but inferior talent )
8-4 cool ( maybe things were not so bad on the talent side after all )
9-3 great ( some great bounces and luck )
10-2 Do not see this
August 17th, 2015 at 3:42 PM ^
I also agree with the post title, Michigan will definitely win this season.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:41 PM ^
Help me out at math, because I am stupid.
7 games we're all but sure of winning = 7 wins
1 game we're all but sure of losing = 1 loss
4 toss up games = 0.7 wins...
...wait... what?
August 17th, 2015 at 3:44 PM ^
Almost certain wins: UNLV (97.3 percent).
Very likely wins: Oregon State (82.2), BYU (67.2), at Maryland (75.2), Northwestern (77.7), Rutgers (83.3), at Indiana (74.0).
Toss-up games: at Utah (40.4), Michigan State (45.5), at Minnesota (53.9), at Penn State (46.1).
Unlikely wins: Ohio State (23.5).
August 17th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^
I find it interesting that he gives us a better chance at beating MSU than Utah.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^
Probably an artifact of home vs. away in his algorithms
August 17th, 2015 at 4:26 PM ^
Home/road has something to do with it, but more important is when the games are played. I'm skeptical our offense is ready yet to go out there and put up 24-28 points against a quality defense based on having a new QB and new schemes finally in live game action. The D will have to carry us in that Utah game. We should have things figured out a little better on offense by time we play State.
August 18th, 2015 at 2:50 AM ^
Will be a dominate defense! I think it possible for Michigan to hold UT offense to 17 points and perhaps the D will score some points. The offense will probably need some work!
August 17th, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^
Consider the rivalry and consider the fact we play them at home.
August 17th, 2015 at 5:28 PM ^
Rivalry is not one of the factors he uses in his algorithm.
August 17th, 2015 at 8:25 PM ^
not only of the season but basically a new team, plus a long distance road game; I'd agree with that.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
Because of probability. Even if we have a 90% chance to win 7 games, the chance of winning all 7 is still only around 48%.
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August 17th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^
A 0.7 win is a win in a game like M00N. Michigan wins, and you feel good about that, but not fully good.
I predict 8.6 wins this season.
August 17th, 2015 at 4:11 PM ^
Is that winning 8 games M00N style, and winning three more that you feel fully good about? I would take that.
8 * 0.7 + 3 = 8.6
August 17th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^
I agree. I predict Michigan "wins the season".
All your seasons are belong to MICHIGAN
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August 17th, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
or "Hf," and I calculate this to be all the wins this year. Science.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
eh seems right
August 17th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^
If you set the over/under at 7.7, I'd agree with you. It will definitely either be over or under that.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:48 PM ^
So, Utah is the SECOND toughest game on the schedule? It looks like we have an euqal chance of beating PSU on the road as MSU at home. Both near 50/50.
August 17th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^
Oregon State - Win 23-16
UNLV - Win 31-10
BYU - Win 21-20
Maryland - Win 34-21
Northwestern - Win 20-10
Michigan State - Win 20-17 (first top 25 ranking of the season)
Minnesota - Loss 27-17
Rutgers - Win 34-13
Indiana - Win 37-9 (second top 25 ranking of the season)
Penn State - Loss 24-17
Ohio State - Loss 38-24
Outback Bowl v. LSU/Ole Miss Win 24-16
August 17th, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^
I'm taking the over
August 17th, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^
to my 12,000 Points party! Woo hoo!
August 17th, 2015 at 3:54 PM ^
280 PARTY!!!!!!!!