Derrick Walton Jr. - NBA prospects

Submitted by Blue in Paradise on

There have been a few scattered posts on this topic but I thought this deserved its own thread.  Walton is not getting any love in terms of NBA talk despite being one of the best college players in the country over the last 4 - 6 weeks.

 

I understand that he is not likely to be a future All-Star given his height and lack of top flight NBA level athleticism.  However, I can't believe that he wouldn't have value as a 2nd round pick to be a backup point guard somewhere.  He can shoot, drive and run multiple sets all while giving you hard minutes on your own half of the court with his defense and rebounding. 

 

Most importantly, he is the definition of trustworthy in terms of being smart with the ball and rarely committing turnovers which I view as the most important trait in a backup point guard.  You don't need them to take the game over, you just need to tread water until you can get your #1 back in the game.

 

 

Craptain Crunch

March 21st, 2017 at 2:16 PM ^

Odds are not in favor of Walton making it in the NBA. But, like he did this season, he will have to prove he can overcome the obstacles in front of him and mentally will himself to succeed. He might also have to spend some time in the D league first. If that doesn't work out, there is always Europe. 

 

 

rainingmaize

March 21st, 2017 at 5:05 PM ^

The ones that I can think of that did make it out include Jeremy Lin, Chris Anderson, Rafer Alston, Gerald Green, Danny Green. So I guess it is not impossible, but it is very hard to both make it out and stay in the league for a while. Even if you are the lucky few, you probably won't be a star. Honestly your best bet is to go to Europe, get some ok-decent money. 

LSAClassOf2000

March 21st, 2017 at 3:52 PM ^

Actually, there was an article on this very thing back in October, and supposedly, at the start of this season, about 30% of NBA players had some D-league time in their careers. Now, if they began there or made a trip there in the middle for some reason, that wasn't clear. I know that about five or six years ago, it was maybe a few dozen D-league guys on rosters, and maybe only a few of them were regular role players on a given team. 

BursleyBaitsBus

March 21st, 2017 at 2:17 PM ^

Burke is a backup PG in the league right now and he was NPOY at Michigan... Idk if that bodes well for Walton's prospects.

M-Dog

March 21st, 2017 at 3:05 PM ^

I know I would.  But it's not an easy lifestyle.  You'll likely get bounced around and you won't likely enter with the big bucks.  And the payoff may be nothing but empty gyms in the D League.  But I'd still give it a shot.

canzior

March 21st, 2017 at 2:23 PM ^

is a minus defender and can't create his own shot in the NBA.   Walton may not have an NBA career, because I don't know if he's great at anything but Trey's success or lack thereof isn't a solid indicator of Walton's abilities.   

TrueBlue2003

March 21st, 2017 at 11:43 PM ^

making the NBA without elite athleticism and/or length.  Trey and Walton are very similar in that sense.  Both minus defenders because those limitations and Walton would also probably have a hard time creating shots for himself or others because of those limitations.

Walton is a better shooter from three and from FT than Trey was in college so he has a tiny chance of being specialist off the bench.

uncle leo

March 21st, 2017 at 2:54 PM ^

Is about 10 times faster than Walton and has some of the best body control around the rim I've ever seen from a PG. He's also a great distributor.

Thomas got overlooked because of his height. Walton doesn't have a massive issue with height if he were to play the 1 in the NBA. 

rainingmaize

March 21st, 2017 at 5:15 PM ^

Usually the guys that fall that far but have NBA success only dropped in the draft because they are unusual outliers. For example, conventional wisdom dictates that five foot nothing guards will struggle. Thomas was the rare outlier to that rule becasue the kid could flat out ball. Lin wasn't drafted because he was an Asian kid from an Ivy League school, neither of those two are also compatible with conventional NBA wisdom but he had success because he could flat out ball. I guess Walton's outlier might be that he waited to blow up until his last few games, but outside of that, Walton doesn't really have any outlier traits that would cause NBA scouts to overlook their talent. But point being, he'll make it in the NBA if he can ball, regardless of where he was picked/not picked. 

Aiq21

March 21st, 2017 at 3:00 PM ^

Completely different types of players.  Burke was always a scorer first.  I think Walton could carve out a role in the league as a backup or a starter next to a ball dominant guard.  (Think Harden and the pg they started last year, beverly I think?)

umchicago

March 21st, 2017 at 4:52 PM ^

i think walton is a better shooter and defender (incl rebounds) than burke.  burke was better at creating his shot.  i could see walton getting minutes as a backup PG.  for his sake, i would rather him go undrafted so he could pick the best team that gives him a shot at a roster spot.

rainingmaize

March 21st, 2017 at 5:26 PM ^

One could make the argument that Burke was better at creating his own shot because defenses had to account for Burke, Hardaway, Stauskas, GR3, all NBA players, on the wing, giving him more flexability to operate. Walton hasn't had that kind of talent until the recent emergence of Wagner and Wilson, which also coincides with Walton's recent Burke-like play. 

TrueBlue2003

March 21st, 2017 at 11:48 PM ^

it's all the more damning for Walton.  It turns out that Burke couldn't create against NBA athletes when he didn't have the Michigan offense and those teammates making it easier on him.  If Walton's teammates and system are the primary reason for his emergence, than it doesn't seem like he'd fare any better.

ak47

March 21st, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^

I don't see how Walton is more effective in the NBA than Trey has been, which is to say not really effective. Its just a completely different level, especially for point guards right now.  Pretty much every guy in the league looks like juwan evans but with 3-4 extra inches of height, he would be a massive liability on defense and probably unable to get his own shot on offense.  I hope I'm wrong and I love the guy, but I'm not going to be surprised when he is playing in europe next year.

alum96

March 21st, 2017 at 2:36 PM ^

Yes getting off shots and being able to defend will be issues for him.  Louisville crowded him and he had som issues when facing that type of quickness.  Even Juwan Evans - who as Brian says has rockets in his ass - is a 2nd rounder.

I mean every guard in the world who is 6'1 or below can yell "Isaiah Thomas" but using an exception to the rule to say "good chance" is not really the way it works.  Walton has every intangible in the world but it's the world's best athletes as they say out there. 

TrueBlue2003

March 21st, 2017 at 11:55 PM ^

so that is true.  And even he hasn't really been "successful".

He's just on a really bad team so getting an opportunity to get minutes and shots. Even during this "break-out" stretch, he's shooting 39/44/91 for a 13 PER, which is below average.  There is some promise there, but way too early to tell if he has any staying power.

Agree that he is very similar to Walton except faster.

EastCoast Esq.

March 21st, 2017 at 2:24 PM ^

I'm with everybody else on the Trey Burke comparisons. Short PGs who aren't super athletic have a difficult time breaking into the league. There are exceptions, but not many.

In order to make it with Walton's physical makeup, you have to be a dead-eye shooter and/or an insanely talented passer. Walton isn't either of those things.

EDIT: On a more optimistic note, TJ McConnell has somehow become a decent PG for the 76ers despite being unathletic and having a TERRIBLE shooting motion. He's very, very cerebral, though.

Kevin14

March 21st, 2017 at 6:08 PM ^

was the comp who immediately came to mind for me.  I never remembered him as a great shooter (although it looks like he had two good 3 pt shooting years at Duquesne), but he was always a beast on the boards and a great passer.  If he can manage to stick around in the league as a non-scoring point guard, I could see Walton having a slightly greater upside than him.  I.E role player on a normal NBA team.

TrueBlue2003

March 22nd, 2017 at 12:14 AM ^

TJ is taller and is a plus defender.  So if you can defend and create shots for others (which he does) or at least require the defense to account for you, you don't have to be a scorer yourself. A game manager on offense and a good defender on defense will make you an average player (and he's average on the Sixers, which isn't saying much).

Walton isn't a good defender.  The worst thing you can be in the NBA is a bad defender and a guy that can't create on offense.  Those guys don't stick. Walton would have to show that he can create in the league or defend in the league and he's not getting any love because scouts don't think he can do either.  I hope they're wrong. But that's the reality.

Kevin14

March 22nd, 2017 at 5:57 PM ^

TJ does has an inch or two on Walton, and you have a good point about defense.  Walton isn't a good defender, but i wouldn't say he's bad.  He works hard, has active hands, and can get in position to take the occassional charge.  

I remember his freshmen year I thought he could be a really good defender based on him giving Appling trouble.  For some reason, it never really happened.  I do feel like he never quite got his quickness back after his foot injury the next year.  You can still see him limping sometimes.

mGrowOld

March 21st, 2017 at 2:27 PM ^

Walton has thicker and stronger body.  Will hold up better in the more physical NBA  Plays better D.  Not a great handle, not a great outside shot.

Burke has a better handle, better outside shot and can create own shot if needed.  Weak defensively.

To me Burke is the far better player and he's struggling to stick in the NBA.  Walton's game is more Darius Morris than Trey Burke and we all know how Morris worked out in the bigs.

MGolem

March 21st, 2017 at 2:54 PM ^

But I bet Walton is a better shooter than Burke from three which is a big deal in today's NBA. Not to be a dick but this version of Walton is way more Burke than Morris. Morris can't really shoot and he was much taller enabling him to approach getting to the basket much differently. Morris is a poor man's Michael Carter-Williams. Burke could be a solid NBA contributor on the right team (a team like the Mavs) but he is viewed as a bust because he was a lottery pick. Not saying Walton will be an NBA player but his skill set is similar to Burke's and Yogi Farrell's.

ST3

March 21st, 2017 at 4:39 PM ^

Burke went 0.348 and 0.384 from three in his two years. Walton is 0.399 in his career and 0.419 this season. So Walton is going to make 1 extra three pointer for every ~30 shots they put up. I don't think that's enough of an advantage to make a difference.

The problem is, they are both competing against the 6'6" Lonzo Ball type PGs that have better court vision, akin to the NFL drafting that 6' 6" QB to see over the line.

Will the NBA view Walton as a system PG? How much of his success will they attribute to being a Beilein product?

TrueBlue2003

March 22nd, 2017 at 12:30 AM ^

MGrowOld's analysis here seems to be showing his age.

Your analysis is correct.  Walton and Morris were/are NOTHING alike.  Walton is a great shooter, decent creator/distributor.  He's short and doesn't venture into the lane often or get fouled much. Not a great defender.

Morris was exactly like you said: a poor man's version of MCW which is to say he was a tall, long PG which was better for defense and posting up/driving on smaller guys.  He got into the lane and finished better thanks to his height (10 percent better 2 pt shooter than Walton) and was a great distributor (3rd in NCAA in assist rate!!) but a terrible outside shooter. 

Hotel Putingrad

March 21st, 2017 at 3:54 PM ^

Walton has a better handle than Burke. They're equally average shooters. Walton is a better defender and rebounder and much stronger. I don't think he's a first round pick, but Burke should never have been a lottery pick. I can easily envision Walton having a better NBA career, especially since he has a much better attitude. Trey Burke, while good, was one of the most overrated players in Michigan basketball history.

alum96

March 21st, 2017 at 2:30 PM ^

Frank Mason who like Burke is a national player of the year candidate ....and a faster more penetrating-able version of Walton... is currently the 2nd to last projected pick in the 2nd round on one of the respected mock draft boards. 

Mason shoots 49% overall, 47% from 3, 4.1 rpg, 5.2 assists, and averages 21 per game.  Walton's shooting metrics are 43 and 42% respectively, with similar rebounding and assist #s.

Monte Morris (better overall FG% than Walton but a bit behind on 3 pt, but a better assist rate) is 3 inches taller and playing at Walton level or near the past 3 years, and is a mid 2nd round pick projected.

Without elite athleticism it is just difficult at that size but I am sure he will get a camp invite.  Burke is carving out a living and all but college is not NBA.