Denard was a better passer in 2010 than now: Why?
If you look at basic stats, and compare Denard in 2010 to last year and this one, you can't escape the fact that statistically (perhaps not technically) he was a better passer then than he is right now, or last year:
2010: 63% completions, 2600 yards, 11 interceptions, 150 QB rating. (numbers rounded)
2011: 55% completions, 2200 yards, 18 interceptions, 140 QB rating.
2012: 55% completions, 800 yards, 8 interceptions, 130 QB rating.
So as a very raw first year starting QB, after arriving at M without a lot of great HS coaching on QB technique, and with none of the benefits of the subsequent intensive 2 years of QB instruction he has received since Hoke and Borges' arrival, his stats in most areas were better in 2010 than last year or this one. He has worked diligently for two years to correct the flaws in his technique, and looking at film, you see that in most ways his footwork and throwing motion are far improved (his decision making has not improved, or at least not measurably, as we saw Saturday--but it also isn't worse). But his stats, or the outcomes, have not. Why is this?
I'm not claiming to know the answer. Some possible explanations: defenses in 2010 did not yet have "The Denard Rules" down--build a fence around him, force him to beat you from the pocket, etc. The fear of his running then forced them to crowd the line, leaving receivers more open than they are now. Was this actually true? Did they play is differently then? Not sure.
Were our receivers better then? Odoms and Hemingway, are not here, but Roundtree and Gallon still are. Perhaps we can argue that this year the group is not as good, but you can't argue that for last year, when Denard's stats regressed. The O-line? Probably better in 2011 than 2010. Probably marginally worse this year, but again this doesn't seem to explain it. Our defense (a poor defense can negatively impact a team's offense, forcing it to play from behind and get away from the game plan)? Nope, we are better last year and this one. The running game from the RB position? Nope, better now than then. Coaching? I think we can safely say that by reputation, resume, and by observation, Al Borges knows how to coach Quarterbacks. Denard has improved his technique as stated earlier, and by all accounts is also a better leader and QB off the field than he was in 2010. Head coaching? We can all agree we are happy with that, and the results validate that.
That leaves (for me anyway) the question of offensive passing design and strategy. Are the routes and the design of the passing game different now than they were in 2010? The play calls themselves are certainly. Is it true, as some allege, that by design, the route combinations, routes themselves, keys, 1st reads, and the passing game design itself are not optimized to play to Denard's strengths as a passer?
Because it doesn't make sense to me that a senior QB with in his third year has worse results than as a first year sophomore, I have to vote yes on that, with the caveat that I'm not as expert at analyzing those things as some on the board. Or is there an explanation that I'm missing?
September 25th, 2012 at 12:10 AM ^
Why are you only looking at ranked opponents? Why not look at all B10 games, since that is the majority of our games every year. In 2010, here are his B10 averages:
198 yards passing
119 yards rushing
2.5 touchdowns per game
Yes, he averaged over 300 yards of total offense and more than 2 touchdowns per game. He played poorly against MSU and OSU. He played great against Wisconsin, Penn State, and Illinois. I don't see how you can come to the conclusion he didn't show up against good teams.
Also, your "ranked teams" he has played against include numerous top 10 nationally ranked defenses. I would like you to show me 1 single player that has amazing averages against the Alabama's and MSU's and OSU's of the world. I'll give you a hint, you won't find many with numbers better than 220 yards of total offense and a touchdown.
September 24th, 2012 at 3:57 PM ^
Every team puts up insane numbers against cupcakes. But even against ranked opponents, the offense put up good numbers as a poster below noted. The only team to truly shut Denard down that year was State. In the other games he was servicable until he was out-of-service (Injured)
In 2010, our issues weren't people keying in on Denard, it was our Defense collapsing and Denard getting injured.
At the end of the day, Denard has still won us more games than he has cost us.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:14 PM ^
Denard ran a Denard offense in 2010. In 2011/12, Al wants Denard to run a Tom Brady offense. Hoke needs to drop the pocket passer shit and let Denard be Denard. After the first four weeks, it seems like Denard is thinking way too much about the pass. He is obvioulsy coached to hold on to the ball longer and let the play develope. How many times has Denard remained in the pocket looking to pass with wide open running lanes?
September 24th, 2012 at 12:20 PM ^
It's been most unfortunate and I've noticed that as well. A few of the plays where he threw picks at on Saturday I feel pretty comfortable he could have gotten a first down by running. Also, I really don't understand why he never throws the ball away.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:28 PM ^
Ugh. Not all pro-style offenses are the same.
Al Borges has shown an unheard-of willingness to adapt his offense to Denard's skills than most offensive coordinators would. This offense is more complicated for the QB than Rodriguez's was, but it's not an extremely complicated offense, either.
Borges is trying to adapt his system, but a) Denard isn't very good at throwing the ball and b) the running game isn't where it should be because of a lack of depth/talent on the offensive line. Borges really doesn't have a ton of choices.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:40 PM ^
Everyone is saying Borges is so stubborn and unwilling to adapt. If that was the case, they would be under the center 100% running more power plays. Borges has done a lot to adapt but hasn't gone completely spread which he shouldn't because of a) he doesnt have the spread background and b) there are 100 other players on the team that are being groomed to play in his offense.
Being stubborn or unwilling to adapt was 2008 RichRod.
People keep saying Borges is asking Denard to do stuff he isn't capable of doing. If you are unable to set your feet, make reads, etc.. then what do you want him to do? He asking Denard to be a QB and Denard is incapable of doing it on a consistant basis. This is isn't 2010 and they aren't playing these teams for the first time. Running Denard 30 times and throwing "QB Oh No's" isnt going to get this team any further than 2010 when they got bashed by every good defense they played.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:42 PM ^
Agree. Why aren't we also talking about Toussaint? Where is our 1000 yd rusher?
Reason:
the running game isn't where it should be because of a lack of depth/talent on the offensive line.
Teams don't have to stack the box as much as last year to stop the run. This allows more pass coverage. Denard and Toussaint aren't running because there is nowhere to run.
September 24th, 2012 at 4:39 PM ^
"Al Borges has shown an unheard-of willingness to adapt his offense to Denard's skills than most offensive coordinators would."
So you're saying, most OCs would use Denard like Borges is using him?
Riiiight.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:32 PM ^
Letting "Denard be Denard" is racking it up against bad teams and struggling against good teams. Thats the same whether its 2010 in the spread of 2011/2012 in the pro.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:15 PM ^
Anyone know the condition of his arm/shoulder after the game?
September 24th, 2012 at 12:26 PM ^
September 24th, 2012 at 12:31 PM ^
I'm sure a certain percent of INTs are on the receivers, and ours are unpolished this year. He also forces a lot of throws.
I sometimes wonder whether the bad throws aren't part of his attempt to maintain discipline, staying in the pocket, making the play rather than cutting loose.
I think we beat Purdue soundly in two weeks, FWIW. And I think this team is on the rise.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:32 PM ^
I wrote this scouting report on Denard back on September 23, 2010, after he had started 3 games at Michigan. I just glanced back at it today to see how accurate it is and/or whether things have changed since then.
I'll let you decide for yourself (if you want):
http://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2010/09/scouting-report-denard-robin…
September 24th, 2012 at 12:38 PM ^
it looks like he has over-corrected is scrambling too early. I swear Michigan's best play could be the pass-not-there-tuck-it-and-run play if Robinson would react quicker when something is not there.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:46 PM ^
I think that's one fundamental/mechanical thing that he has learned from Borges - keep your eyes up and go through your reads. Unfortunately, his reads aren't always accurate. And he rarely looks off a safety or uses his eyes to move defensive players. If he starts off looking to the right, that's probably where he's going.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:33 PM ^
September 24th, 2012 at 12:33 PM ^
Denard was better a passer 9/23/2012 than he was 9/22/2012
September 24th, 2012 at 12:35 PM ^
September 24th, 2012 at 12:36 PM ^
In 2010, Denard got off to an otherworldly start through the first five games, and then came down to Earth after that.
Through five games in 2010, Denard had completed 69.8% of his passes for 201.6 yards per game, 7 TDs and only one interception. He averaged an absurd 10.5 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 179.7.
Over the final eight games of 2010, Denard completed 59.0% of his passes for 195.3 YPG, 11 TDs and 10 INT. His YPA dropped to 8.0 and passer rating to 134.6. Those numbers aren't all that different from what he's done under Borges. Because of that incredible 5-game start, his 2010 season stats look terrific, but things changed quite a bit from the MSU game onward.
Opposing DCs have caught on to a lot of Denard's tendencies. They know that he doesn't throw that well on the run, has trouble handling pressure up the middle, and tries too hard to keep plays going when there's nothing there. In the last two games of the 2011 regular season he looked like he was dropping those bad habits and taking a big step forward as a passer, but since then he's reverted back to them.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:42 PM ^
Remember when you said this last year, didn't respond to everyone's criticism, then deleted your topic in shame after his three game stretch against Illinois, Nebraska and OSU?
This still doesn't hold water because you don't take into account any of the other factors involved with football other than your silly little theory about opposing DCs watching more video, which is only one part of the whole pie.
September 24th, 2012 at 1:13 PM ^
I don't know, or even care, about your past internet pissing matches. For the record, I'm not a moderator and can't delete posts.
As for your second paragraph, I'm not saying that 100% of the issue is due to better opponent scouting of him, but you can't really dispute that the MSU game in 2010 game opponents a good gameplan to draw from.
September 24th, 2012 at 1:23 PM ^
You edited all the information to a blank, which is pretty much deleting it.
Perhaps, but you fail to account for ANYTHING else in your assessment, making it a rather stupid one. Personnel, the logical conclusion that good defenses tend to perform better against everyone, the other units involved with the team, different coordinators, etc.
But hey, you're a part of that select little group with an obvious agenda that cares more about being right about a certain three years than being logical.
Carry on.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:39 PM ^
I'm a bit of a rookie at this kind of stuff, but this is just a thought process I've been having lately. I really wonder if Borges has Denard taking more snaps under center to get the rest of the offense used to what is to come after Denard graduates. Once Denard is gone, this hybrid style Borges has drawn up is dead. No more QB draws, zone reads, etc. I wonder if Borges is slowly trying to wean the offense off of this style and push more towards what he is building towards for the future.
This is just merely speculation on my part, and even I agree part of it doesn't make sense, as it means you're taking away Denard's playmaking abilities and hurting the team now. Maybe Borges is just trying to prepare the offense long-term so they're not necessarily starting from scratch next year. Yeah it sounds kind of stupid, but I can't think of another reason why Borges wouldn't be consistently running Denard out of the shotgun. He of all people should know by now the areas in which Denard thrives, and the areas that he doesn't. Denard is not a pocket passer. Both he and Borges should stop trying to believe he can be one. He makes plays and wins games when he can get outside the pocket, extend plays, and if he needs to, run like hell.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:44 PM ^
September 24th, 2012 at 12:45 PM ^
Hes forcing throws, not running enough, and doesnt have the recieving group that we would like to have.. Hemmingway made a huge difference last yr and it shows..His numbers will increase as season goes on so i am not that worried...Also, what the hell happened to Fitz?? A good RB helps a QB also.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:46 PM ^
Don't forget, for all those screaming that Denard is being used wrong, Denard himself has vehemently argued that he can/will play as a quarterback in the NFL. This is a pro-style offense....
September 24th, 2012 at 12:48 PM ^
The Notre Dame game was just a terrible game. It happens to every quarterback in the world. Tom Brady throws a 4 interception game every other year.
Yeah, Denard doesn't look as good against great defenses. That's pretty standard. He still usually manages to rack up 100 yards on the ground against good defenses fairly regularly. That's not standard.
2010's offense, obviously, was fit for Denard. He was also playing without a defense and no real running threat, which is another part of why he didn't "perform well against good teams".
2012 is exactly what happens when you have 3 head coaches in 6 years. Everyone just needs to suck it up and realize that it will be another 2 seasons before the Brady Hoke era begins without any asterisks.
Despite all this, we're still a favorite to win the Big Ten. For a rebuilding season, that's not a bad place to be.
Also, what happened Saturday night will never happen again this season and we all know it. That was a fluke of a game.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:53 PM ^
Borges is NOT using Denard wrong. Borges has, in fact, developed Denard into a "WCO Pocket Passer." He throws very well, has acceptable accuracy, and when he not pressured, he makes good decisions. I know a lot of you will disagree with me, but I think you're letting the negatives overshadow the positives.
The issue is quite simple: Denard's ability to recognize, evade, and deal with a blitzer in his face. IIRC, the vast majority of Denard's many INT's come when he has pressure in his face. It is then that his mechanics and decision making go to hell, and he throws INT's.
There is absolutely NO WAY that Borges isn't hammering Denard continually about how to handle the blitz, but Denard just isn't listening. In my mind, this was the reason behind his post game comment about accountability to his team. He's being coached properly, and in practice he's doing the right things, making the right reads, and good decisions. In a big game, however, he gets too amped, and wants too badly to make a big play on every play.
Think about the difference in our discussion of Borges and Denard if the only INT that he threw was the one at the end of the half -- basically a hail mary, and of little consequence. If he had evaded, tucked and run -- even for a short gain -- or thrown the ball out of bounds, i.e., lived to play another down. We'd all be marveling at his development, and praising Borges as a great coach, and more importantly, Michigan likely would have scored a lot, and won the game. But, Denard didn't do those things. He reverted to his old bad habits, made poor decisions, and cost his team the game.
When it comes to dealing with a blitz, he's still in the "conscious incompetence" phase of learning. He knows what he's supposed to do, but it's not yet instinctive -- he thinking about it too much. This game will be a HUGE step forward for Denard's development. Unfortunately, the clock is ticking on his career. Unfortunately, he didn't RS his freshman year because he's very close. I know that sounds silly of a QB that threw 4 picks, but he is, and he'll get there.
September 24th, 2012 at 1:04 PM ^
Aren't we running a little low on time?
September 24th, 2012 at 3:50 PM ^
Yep, we are, unfortunately. That's why I lament the fact that RR didn't redshirt him in 2009. There is nothing anyone can do about that now. All we can do is hope that Borges and Denard keep working hard to make improvements in his blitz pick up.
September 24th, 2012 at 12:58 PM ^
Uh, let's look at comparable stats:
After 4 games in 2011, DRob had a 8.33% interception rate (ints/pass attempt) and improved dramatically over the last 9 games with a 4.72 int%.
After 4 games this year, DRob has a 8.0% int%. Actually better than last year.
September 24th, 2012 at 1:58 PM ^
" He throws very well, has acceptable accuracy, and when he not pressured, he makes good decisions. I know a lot of you will disagree with me, but I think you're letting the negatives overshadow the positives."
But when he plays against a rough tough defense like ND, Ala, MSU he freaks out. I don't know how else to say it. He just doesn't play well against good teams. It would help if the line blocked a little better and gave him some more time. To many mental lapses by the looks of it because they are capable of blocking.
September 24th, 2012 at 5:32 PM ^
September 24th, 2012 at 3:24 PM ^
Denard wants his University of Michigan degree. He has sacrificed personal glory for it. He is better than any other option at QB, but he is a spread QB stuck in the WCO.
It makes no sense for Al Borges to delay putting his own system in; it would just delay the growth curve of the program. I am guessing that Borges will make a few adjustments after the ND game, which is now going to be seen as an instruction manual for defending Denard Robinson, but they will have to be within his system.
As for the comparison, the sample is too small. ND is a legit top ten team now, and Bama is an NFL development franchise. Michigan played two excellent defenses with great athletes out of four games. I'm not bailing out on Denard or Borges; there's a lot of season left.
September 24th, 2012 at 3:40 PM ^
2010 Michigan Offense: points per game: 32.77
2011 Michigan Offense: points per game: 33.31
I think Borges has at least some idea of what he's doing, and he's doing it predominantly with spread guys to boot. Denard might have been a better passer in 2010. But we were not a better offense.
We cannot gameplan poor decision making. The only thing you can do is what Brian Kelly showed; by pulling the player making those poor decisions. That can not, should not, and will not ever happen with Denard. He's just too great a talent and gives us the best chance to win.
We just need to face the fact that while Denard can make throws, he sometimes gets greedy. I think he translates his otherwordliness in running to his arm, when in his mind they need to be completely separate entitites. The man makes plays, and sometimes you get burned in the effort.
September 24th, 2012 at 4:15 PM ^
I agree 100%. As I said in my post above, Denard needs to learn how to "make a play" when he's being blitzed without risking turning the ball over. Obviously, that means "tucking-and-running" and other "smart QB" techniques. But you hit it right on the head, I think -- Denard is so confident, has made so many ridiculous plays with his legs, that he thinks he can do the same with his arm. Problem is, as Bo and Woody used to say, when you throw the ball three things can happen, and two of them are bad.
It is ironic that a guy with Denard's amazing running ability is so reluctant to simply run away from a blitzer. Borges has said it reapeatedly, Denard often feels like he HAS to make a play, every play. Hopefully he'll learn that he doesn't have to, that he has to be patient, and use his gifts when he's threatened, and not try to force the play where it isn't there.
September 24th, 2012 at 9:26 PM ^
September 24th, 2012 at 4:33 PM ^
Because Rodriguez knew it was mind blowingly stupid to have Denard under center running play action which is constraint when your running game under center actually scares teams just like Mattison and co. know it is stupid to run the 3-3-5 or whatever defense Michigan was running. A perfect world would see a spread coordinator with Mattison but that isn't happening since it is obviously stupid to run an up tempo offense when you play your best defense on offense.....
September 24th, 2012 at 5:33 PM ^
September 24th, 2012 at 7:04 PM ^
September 24th, 2012 at 7:32 PM ^
Said this before. If I was Borges I would make Denard practice with 20lb wieghts tied around his legs. If you want him to learn new skills you have to take away(in practice)his security blanket, which we all know is his blazing speed. His happy feet, which most often result in errant throws to the other team, are a result of years of playing football the best way he knew how.
September 25th, 2012 at 2:28 AM ^
am an OSU fan from TX, and enjoyed talking football with a lot of great UM fans a few weeks ago for the Labor Day kick off game.
I am really stunned at how weak OSU's defense has become - and am equally stunned at the production decline from UM.
Look, no one is going to beat Alabama; however, the performance of our two teams and the B1G overall is really hard to analyze. OSU is struggling with weak teams and cannot stop anyone. Their D was solid for a decade and I don't get Fickell and Vrabell and their scheme.
UM is in transition to the style of offense I think OSU should stick with (Bo: FB, TE in a 3-pt stance ...) and I get that; however, Denard is Denard, and he is not being put in positions to make him as multi-dimensional as he should be.
Both OSU and UM have good recruiting classes and the future should - should - be bright. But right now, Hoke and Meyer as solid as they are, I don't see the B1G competing with the SEC. Shane Morris is going to be solid, and UM is going to be good. OSU will be good. I just don't see the two schools or the B1G winning the NC until Saban retires.
I think UM and OSU will be competitive for the next decade in the B1G. Don't see a NC unless something drastic happens like changes to oversigning. The economy is not coming back in a big way ever again to the MidWest, and the recruiting bases will have to compete in the South and the West and those 5* players will stay home and we can plan on developing 4* talent and playing our asses off. It is a different decade ...
Which brings me back to my opening line - having grown up in the NE/ MW/ B1G country and having lived in TX since the 90's, there is a solid population shift, and the base for our two schools is shifting and that will make it tough to win the NC. Being competitive is one thing - playing for a legitimate NC title is something else...
Eager to hear from UM fans...
Go Army - Beat Navy!