We can now all breathe a sigh of relief knowing that Denard's coming back for his senior season. My guess is that in Denard's case, asking the league for a draft evaluation was not so much about deciding whether to leave school early, as it was about two other things:
- Hearing what league scouts think about his chances to play QB in the NFL, and how much his openness to a position change would affect which round he's selected in; and
- Whether he and his family should get a disability insurance policy before his senior year, and how much they should spend on it.
I was curious to learn more about how disability insurance works for pro-caliber athletes who opt to stay in college rather than enter the draft early. I found this good NY Times piece from 2007, which focused on Louisville QB Brian Brohm. Some highlights:
The policies cover the athletes if an injury, sustained on the field or off, prevents them from playing professionally....
Typically, college athletes and their families will secure loans to cover the premiums. In football, the cost is roughly 1 percent of the policy’s value, or about $10,000 for $1 million worth of insurance. The amount of coverage available for the best players — those expected to be chosen in the first few picks of the draft — has nudged to about $10 million, double what it was at the start of the decade....
Insurance companies have offered disability policies to elite college athletes for decades. But many policies are bought through the National Collegiate Athletic Association, which entered the field in 1990 largely to combat agents who were secretly and illegally building relationships with athletes by offering to secure disability insurance while the athletes were in college.
The N.C.A.A. now offers up to $3 million of coverage for football players and varying amounts to top baseball, hockey and men’s and women’s basketball players....
Policies for elite college athletes are similar to those available to others with big earning potential, like professional athletes, entertainers and executives. A major difference is that a college player has no income history on which to base a policy.
Instead, insurance companies rely on the analysis of draft experts and scouting services. They decipher, a year or two in advance, where a player may be drafted, then calculate the sort of contract such a draft selection would be offered by using information from previous years....
To be eligible for the N.C.A.A. program, a football player must be projected to be drafted in the first three rounds — a guideline that most private insurers use, too, to protect their companies and to prevent players who miss the pros from being saddled with a loan for the premium that they cannot repay.
Denard's case has to be a bit tricky for an insurance company, and for NFL scouts, for that matter. I'd be shocked if Denard wasn't selected within the first three rounds. (Two points of comparison: Antwaan Randle El was taken in the 2nd round (pick #62) by the Steelers in 2002. However, Texas A&M's Reggie McNeal, who ran a 4.4 at the Combine but also whined about not wanting to play WR, wasn't taken until the 6th round by the Bengals in 2006.) But how high does he go? Denard's just as electric with the ball as Reggie Bush ever was -- is there a chance some team takes him in the early first round, and if so, should he get the insurance that reflects that higher contract?
Denard and his family have a big decision coming up. I'm curious what feedback he got from the league on this point.
I'm sorry but you are grossly overstating Denard's draft potential.