Deinhart's Prediction for Michigan Football 2011

The cupboard is much barer on defense than it was when Carr left.

Keep in mind Vince Lombardi couldn't win with this D

Let's stop this kind of talk now.

...Means that you'll probably just have a slighly less terrible defense.  If Mattison can get this group into the top 50 nationally, it would be a huge accomplishment but that's the only way we're getting to 9 wins.  With this defense and the tough schedule (more on this below) it's going to be tough to get to 9 wins, and the RR crew wouldn't have gotten there.  

Remember that we won the ILL game on a super lucky bounce on 4th down in overtime, won the ND game on a last minute drive that was made possible by QB issues for them and that we lost all our games by double digits.  We were very fortunate to be 7-5.  Our "pythagorean" wins or mean wins as calculated by football outsiders was only 5.7.  

To expect a jump to 9 wins is extremely optimistic.  Even with the old staff, the offense wasn't going to improve much: it was already so good there is little room for improvement besides the elimination of some TOs and a better FG kicker.  And the defense, well, I've talked about that.  The talent isn't there and the coaching wasn't there with the old staff.  There's no reason to think after 2 whiffs, RR would somehow be able to talk a competent D coach into working with him.

As for the schedule, ND is going to be killer next year.  They already were hugely improved toward the end of last year, they're going to be downright scary next year.  SDSU was a better team than Uconn last year and with a lot returning players (who were actually good), and some coaching stability despite a coaching change, it's not unreasonable to think they'll be as good or better next year than they were this year.  The big ten schedule is pretty much similar to last year as NU should be as good as PSU was last year and NEB should be about as good as WIS.  So the schedule goes:

2010                     2011

ND             <<        ND

UCONN     <        SDSU

UMASS       =        WMU

BGSU         =        EMU

IND             =         MINN

PSU            =        NU

MSU            >        MSU

PU               =        PU

IOWA           >        IOWA

ILL               <        ILL

WIS             =        NEB

OSU            =        OSU

If we get out of there with 8 wins, it'll be a major first year success for Hoke.  I would think 7-5 should be the benchmark.

Are the doldrums of February so bad that we put Deinhart predictions of UM gloom on here to stir things up?

But he had 1 returning starter...isn't that close enough? Just drop that pesky "0" and it is basically the same

Yeah, I don't know what to make of the Nebraska game.  On the one hand, they won the last two Big12 north titles, but on the other, they seemed to get worse as the seaon went on last year.  They also lose a significant portion of their secondary.  

There is so much uncertainty in trying to predict that game, mostly to do with the progression of the two quarterbacks.  Martinez has near-Denard type game breaking ability with his legs, but is a far worse passer.  Martinez also seemed to lack a certain mental toughness towards the end of the season, so I think there are more questions about his work ethic than Denard's.  But, Martinez has the advantage of working in the same system again next year (I think).  Also, of course, there is the question of the two QBs staying healthy.  

At best, I can only see that game as a toss up.  Even if Denard really takes to the new offense and Martinez struggles with injury issues, Nebraska's defensive front will keep them in the game.  At worst, it will be a probable loss with the offense having to play a great game to win and the defense doing just enough to contain a dangerous QB.

Certainly no gimme, but if we're going to continue to improve, it's one we must win.  We should, however, be the better team, so I'm not too worried about it.

Penn State became mediocre well after they joined the Big Ten, not necessarily when they first entered the conference.  They had nine or more wins in their first seven seasons...including 12-0 in 1994. 

I'm a little confused about your definition of a "must win" is.  To me, it is a game that in order for you to have the type of season you had hoped for, you must win.  The only teams that have must wins for every game on the schedule are teams with honest expectations of being national champions.  That's almost certainly not going to be us this year.  

For me, this season we need to be at least 8-4 since 2012 has a murderous schedule.  So, assuming we get at least one win out of MSU, ND, Iowa, Neb. and OSU, we must win the rest.   Every loss of that group, i.e. to Northwestern or at Illinois, makes a succesful season much, much more difficult.

I think we will be competitive in every game, I wouldn't rate any opponent as "sure loss," but I just can't picture our defense being improved enough to make the upper echelon opponents anything less than tough games to win.

That would be awesome... But, with the sweatervest in charge, here's how I picture a collapse going.  Say they start 3-4/4-3.  Season goals are pretty much shot, except for the one goal they consider supreme to all others.  Can't you see Tressel spending the next five weeks maximizing his chances of beating us?  Nobody in Columbus would be happy going 6-6 or 7-5, but if one of those wins came in Ann Arbor, he'd be foregiven, and he knows it.

They also lose Martez Wilson, who was all over the field for them last year.  They didn't show much of a defense against us last year, and losing Wilson and Liuget won't help things.

+1. Well played sir.