Defense & Special Teams Play
I continue to see the defense and special teams developing, and becoming a strength for the Michigan team.
- It is interesting to hear Hoke quoted as saying:
I think our defense is playing pretty good, to be honest with ya.
- Looking at the scoring defense, Michigan is averaging 10.33 points scored against per game, which would be good for somewhere around 8 or 9th in the country. Of course, things will change soon, but that is a great start. This is a tremendous reflection of the bend, don't break philosophy. (Note: I have no clue how to calculate this stat. Do you include WMU or not? Do you amortize the WMU score over four quarters instead of three? Regardless, we are not getting clobbered by other teams on the scoreboard.)
- It is great to see the emphasis in practice this week on better play on kickoffs, and the huge improvement by Matt Wile. This apparently is falling under Mattison's review. This is a huge between games adjustment. We are not only seeing adjustment during games, but during the season.
I am especially looking forward to the defense UFR this week.
While it would be a mistake to be too positive, it would be hard to think of a more favorable schedule.
- Minnesota seems as easy of a game as possible to start the conference schedule.
- This will also give Michigan at least one game to scout and prepare for Persa and Northwestern.
- Michigan is due to win vs. Michigan State, but more than being due, MSU appears greatly weakened on the OL.
- Purdue is not frightening.
- Iowa appears vulnerable, with their loss to ISU.
- Illinois is Illinois. They are stronger than last year, but so is Michigan.
I can't believe Michigan will win all these games. But we could run the table in October, and split Iowa / Illinois, leaving us to close out at home with the two strongest teams we face, Nebraska and OSU.
Honestly, I don't care if we lose, as long as we're in the game. And Mattison is maximizing the defense to keep us in the game. More than that, the favorable schedule allows us to grow the defense, to heal up as necessary (exhibits A & B, Cam Gordon, Troy Woolfolk,) to give experience to Freshmen (Blake Countess,) to teach BWC how to play. It also limits the burden on Denard.
September 25th, 2011 at 3:19 AM ^
Best way to calculate the bend-but-not-break-ness of the defense that I can come up with would be:
#1) Figure out the expected point value for the opposing team for each of their drives based on their starting position.
#2) Figure out the expected number of yards to be given up on each drive based on starting position.
See where Michigan ranks compared to the expected values for #1 and #2. The larger the difference between Michigan's rank at #1 and #2, the more of a bend-but-not-break defense it is (that is, give up plenty of yards but not points).
PAGING MATHLETE
September 25th, 2011 at 3:40 AM ^
and kind of scary. Exciting to be 4 - 0, and have realistic opportunities to win the next 6 games. However, it is scary to think that Michigan could end up with an outstanding record this season, and set up expectations which might be too high for next year. Next year's schedule is brutal. Could be very probable to have a better team next year with a worse record due to the difference in schedules.
September 25th, 2011 at 4:40 AM ^
So your concern is that we will win too many games this year and possibly be thought of as overrated next year if we lose a couple games. Seems extremely logical and thought out. I mean who really wants to win games this year? God that would be terrible please stop winning so people don't think we're good.
September 25th, 2011 at 4:06 AM ^
I was scared of Illinois, but not as much after that showing against WMU. I think we stand a solid chance in that game. Of course, B1G play will provide the best metric.
September 25th, 2011 at 4:25 AM ^
The Kick-off and Punt coverage has gotten better.
The run defense has gotten better.
The FG kicking has gotten be---we score TDs most of the time anyway.
Freshman are making an impact on defense!
Things are improving drastically week to week! This team hasn't even come close to it's peak! No doubt offense will improve.
GO BLUE
September 25th, 2011 at 4:44 AM ^
I'm ok with us being overrated this year. You just talked me into believing we can go 10-2. Next year will be interesting. I'm more excited about 2013 and beyond than anything else.
September 25th, 2011 at 6:32 AM ^
September 25th, 2011 at 9:05 AM ^
Next year has the potential to be pretty rough. Losing Martin, Van Bergen, and Molk will be a huge blow, and starting the season in Dallas against Alabama could be pretty deflating.
September 25th, 2011 at 9:30 AM ^
...although something inside tells me that this might be the worst team Hoke has here, at least statistically. Even though we lose - as you mention - three great players, those behind them will be more comfortable with the new system by then and this hopefully would mitigate the loss of experience (it certainly won't eliminate it - I expect some "D'OH!" moments on the lines next year for this reason).
September 25th, 2011 at 11:02 AM ^
We don't have much. You can't count on true freshmen to fill in the holes left by departing seniors. We will have more issues due to lack of depth. The first year you can expect us to reload instead of rebuild is 2013 after next year's freshmen are either soph's or rs frosh.
I fail to see how 2012 will be decent with the depth we currently have and have recruited for OL and DL without trying to rely on true freshmen.
Posada and Bryant =\= Molk, nobody = Martin, particularly true frosh Pipkins (probably)
September 25th, 2011 at 12:13 PM ^
Yup. Next year is the one that spooks me. The schedule would be pretty nightmarish for any team. We lose our defensive cornernstones. And Hoke's recruiting master-class will still be trying to find their way around South Quad. Most informed fans will understand this (to a degree, anyway). But I worry about a backlash against Hoke in general. Really, we should be looking at 2013 as the year when Michigan ought to be a real contender. Sad for Denard.
September 25th, 2011 at 12:25 PM ^
I had the chance to see it post-renovation a few weeks ago after a construction meeting. It no longer looks like a 1960s Hilton. Very nice upgrade.
September 25th, 2011 at 9:09 AM ^
September 25th, 2011 at 12:16 PM ^
There's no one I trust more about predicting national championships than...the guy with head coaching experience at New Mexico and San Diego State.
September 25th, 2011 at 1:05 PM ^
That is, nevertheless, a better coaching résumé than anyone posting here.
September 25th, 2011 at 2:37 PM ^
I heard jg2112 is the online persona of Lou Holthhh.
September 25th, 2011 at 9:32 AM ^
Points against are 12.75. Still a huge improvement over the last few years. 12.75 would be good for 19th in the Country last week. Quite a few teams in the 10-20 range gave up a lot of points this week, so it could be about 12-15 this week.
WMU 10
ND 31
EMU 3
SDSU 7
Total 51 (51/4 = 12.75)
Note: NCAA does not recognize WMU game. Without WMU, 41/3= 13.67. Good for 21st in the country last week.
September 25th, 2011 at 10:52 AM ^
I think if I was the special teams coach I'd be worried about my job.
September 25th, 2011 at 1:07 PM ^
He did a lot to strengthen it yesterday. Kickoffs and punts were outstanding. Even the field goal was nearly in there.
September 25th, 2011 at 3:51 PM ^
I think the exciting this is that all these games seem look potentially winnable. Then we get to Nebraska and OSU and I think that with the improvement this team will make from week to week, those games could be toss ups. Not saying we will go undefeated or anything but if we have at least a shot to win every game we play it will be an exciting omen for the future.