Defense only as strong as weakest link?
In one of the posts today, there was a comment regarding our defense only being as good as the weakest link. No matter how good our D Line, we can't do much because of our linebackers. Even if our linebackers improve, we're held back by our secondary.
In addition, in his press conf., RR was clear that many of the true freshmen seeing playing time would be redshirts, but have been pressed into service because of our lack of depth.
It also has been explained that very little teaching can happen during the season, and that most improvement will happen in the Spring.
Ok, these things all make a lot of sense to me. They mean that more or less, we are only going to do as well as our offense can do this year. We just can't expect hardly anything out of our defense. That's just the way it goes. It's crummy, but c'est la vie.
My questions, then, are about the defense in 2011. I would like for someone closer to the team to comment on the combination of depth, experience, and skill in the defense next year. I believe that some of the long time posters (Magnus, Sharik?) have suggested that we're on the right path for NEXT YEAR.
At DE, I have us losing Banks and Sagasse. Returning are Van Bergen, Black, Roh, Herron, Talbott, and Fitzgerald. This should be sufficient depth. Plus Paskorz and Wilkins.
At DT, we lose Patterson, and have Martin and Campbell returning. Campbell has to have the kinks out. (Please.) Plus Ash & Talbott.
At LB, we lose Mouton, (boo,) Ezeh (yeh!!) and Moundros?? and return Jones, Demens, Leach (?), and some redshirt freshmen. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE PLACE WHERE WE HAVE THE LEAST DEPTH. I guess it depends on how well the redshirts have learned this year.
At Spur, we lose no one, and return T. Gordon, Carvin Johnson, and Simmons.
At Bandit, we lose no one, and return Kovacs and Marvin Robinson.
At FS, we lose no one, and return Cam Gordon and Van Slyke.
At CB, we lose Rogers (ok,) and return Woolfolk, Christian, Talbott, Floyd, and Avery.
Here are my four questions:
- Given who is returning, is there anyone who is clearly deficient in talent? The biggest lack that I can see is Leach. I suppose Kovacs could be faster and bigger, but he isn't bad.
- Given who is returning, is there any place where we are seriously lacking in depth on defense? Looking at the roster, the secondary actually looks pretty good, but the LB corps is troublesome. I suppose it depends on how Bell, Jake Ryan, and Kinard step up.
- Given who is returning, are there any clear "weak links" in the defense? Will Jones (hopefully) and Demens, along with a redshirt or two, be a step up from Mouton and Ezeh, or will we continue to get gashed here?
- Are there any incoming Freshmen who can make an impact? From what I can see, Kellen Jones looks to have the best chance. I'm assuming that DE (Beyer) generally should redshirt to work on technique and conditioning.
October 11th, 2010 at 5:47 PM ^
Not that this answers your question.. it's just my vent..
Is it good to have the worst defense in the country all back???? or better to make some changes???
Seriously.. the guys will improve... the rankings say they can't get worse.. although I suppose reality says they can..
We got screwed over this year by AMSHG... if our secondary was better.. our linebackers would be better and our D-line would be better.. it's the way it works... the longer the quarterback needs to throw... or the less open a receiver is.. the better shot we have at creating turnovers or making a play..
We'll have to live with this all year.. .I give up complaining about it... but these guys aren't all trash... they're just not sure what they're doing.. and that comes with time... we'll be a little better defensively next year and a little more better the next... and hopefully we don't end up losing a bunch of guys and having other issues like Dorsey.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:06 PM ^
I'm not saying this will happen, but here's an example from recent history...
In the 2008 Capital One Bowl, we absolutely destroyed Florida's defense. Something that was done by teams all year long. The next season, they were probably the best defense in the country.
Obviously, I don't think we have the talent that Florida had, but there are some similarities. By and large, the secondary was the weak link on that defense, with their CBs and Safeties looking lost multiple times every game. That group returned, got better, gelled and anchored their killer D the next season.
Bringing everyone back should lead to significant improvement in the secondary, and if we can find anyone to fill the void at LB, we should be able to at least perform like an average BCS defense. So, in conclusion, I think it's better to have everyone back off a bad defense than making changes just for the hell of it.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:27 PM ^
I would really like this to happen, but would settle for just a smidgen of it to happen.
October 11th, 2010 at 7:29 PM ^
When a preseason pub wants to get a laugh, they'll pull out the old - they return most of their defense, but is that a good thing?
At a school like UM, you'd like to think it is. However, Ezeh's taught me one thing - it's possible to be a 3 year starter and not show any noticeable improvement over those 3 years.
October 11th, 2010 at 5:53 PM ^
answers are this...you basically answered a lot of your own questions.
1. Cam Gordon is slow.. very slow and I pray he learns better angles and how to tackle.
2. RR said today, he wants to fill out the 9-11 schollys left to get depth... I hope he can..
3. aren't they all weak links right now sans Martin?.. I don't think we'll know until next fall on progress.. maybe some early returns in April.. but you said it yourself.. can't teach during the season.
4. I'm also excited about Jones.. and obviously hoping we get a freshman sensation steal before signing day.. HAHA.. not a joke...I want HAHA and it would be sweet.. not likely but sweet.. but maybe some safety or CB changes his mind.. maybe Wayne Lyons.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:00 PM ^
Still very thin at FS. I expect some position switches in the off season.
As for LBs mouton has moments where I think "man this guy is good" and then moments where he takes a horrible angle and I'm like WTF.
DL should be good
CBs. I hope experience means they will be better
October 11th, 2010 at 6:33 PM ^
don't forget he plays safety too. he may even be better at FS. so depending on whether the CBs or Ss develop quickest, he'll end up at the position of greatest need, imo. i hope it's FS and that one of these true frosh CBs step up; or recruit a super CB in the 2011 class.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:08 PM ^
Here is why:
For several positions (Spur, Bandid, FS, CB) we lose nobody (except Rogers). So, we have this exact defense at those positions, but:
1. everyone is a full year older - more physical development = stronger and faster
2. everyone has had an additional spring of learning to play D1 college ball
3. we replace Rogers with T-Wolf. Huge upgrade.
4. the jump from true freshmen to true soph is probably the biggest in football, so this will be a big step up.
For the other positions:
DE - we have depth - we are fine, and we return our best players.
DT - Campbell is a huge prospect - if he comes close to living up to his hype, he is an improvement over Patterson.
LB - we love Obi. Nuff said. I am still holding out hope that we can pick up a surprise stud recruit, because even a true freshman starting here would be a step up. Also, Jones and Demens are raw - given time, they will be at least as good as Obi. Losing Mouton hurts, but on balance, this position is, at worst a wash, and at best (with a big recruit????) a step up.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:57 PM ^
surprise stud recruit? can you say LB CURTIS GRANT ?
October 11th, 2010 at 7:27 PM ^
As an alternative to 3, we could also replace C Gordon with Woolfolk and Rogers with Avery, Christian, Talbott, or an incoming freshman depending on how much Gordon improves relative to the others. It's good to have at least a little bit of flexibility assuming Woolfolk returns close to 100%.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:15 PM ^
While there may not be a lot of teaching during the season I think there can be at least some incremental improvement as new players get game experience, see mistakes on film, and work to correct them. There won't be major leaps but hopefully some better play in the second half of the schedule. If it were all 3-4 year players making the mistakes I would not be as hopeful but looking for some improvement with the 1st year guys.
May as well be optimistic - doesn't cost anything.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:32 PM ^
While I hope this is so, I haven't seen significant improvement across the season the past two years. I think we are at an "it is what it is" moment. Hopefully game reps, the bye week, and a few personnel swaps nets a little improvement, but don't expect significant gains.
UMass, Indiana and MSU have shown where the weak spots are. Now any improvements we make probably keep up with our opponents ability to game plan against us.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:35 PM ^
than from the first five games. Sometimes when your weaknesses are so glaringly exposed, you know exactly what you need to do to fix things.
October 11th, 2010 at 7:34 PM ^
I'm guessing it's not going to appear that way against Iowa, Wisky and OSU. The defense isn't good and even a slight improvement here and there against those teams probably isn't going to make that much difference in how points/yards/etc. the defense gives up.
It'll be interesting to see how the defense does against Illinois, Purdue and PSU. None of them at this point are going to scare to many defensive coordinators. At this point they don't appear to be average to below average teams with a stud QB (ala Indiana). If there is some improvement over the second half of the year with the defense, I think these would be the games where it might be noticeable.
**As a cavaet I'm not expecting improvement from Ezeh. He is what he is.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:23 PM ^
See subject
October 11th, 2010 at 6:26 PM ^
Although, I think I would be happy to have Burgess on the field this year.
October 11th, 2010 at 7:08 PM ^
DL- No way it won't be significantly better. Banks has done next to nothing. Patterson, while i would admit i was enamored with this kid outta high school, has a terrible habit of getting pancaked any time he gets run at. campbell has to be better next year you would think. You then return Roh, vanbergen, and your preseason all america Mike Martin. Black looks legit in a small sample size as well.
DB's-No way this wont be significantly better. Woolfolk and Floyd (with one more off season under his belt) is light years better than rogers and floyd (now). All the frosh corners become sophs. kovacks and mrob next year>kovacks and mrob now. carvin and t. gordon both are one more year experienced.
LBS- *Concern alert* Too bad M. Jones got hurt. He could use the experience. He will almost assuradly have to start. Obi is gone, leaving Demens as the likely incumbent starter. Cannot see how Demens is not better that Obi, who is the the worst starting linebacker i have ever seen wear the winged helmet. Depth you got Isaih Bell, Jake Ryan, and ......? Def need some bodies here. Can def see another year of me screaming at the TV for better linebacker play.
In whole, definetely see a better D, although by that i mean a defense that is average.
October 11th, 2010 at 11:59 PM ^
Plus a returning explosive offense equals 10 wins. I'll take that moving forward and prep for 2012 and beyond......
October 11th, 2010 at 7:53 PM ^
But look at the defenisve turn around at Illinois. They bring in a new D coordinator this year and it is night and day different. I know alot of people do not want to hear it, but I think alot of our struggles are coaching. There is definately youth, but they just do not look ready to play
October 11th, 2010 at 9:01 PM ^
I have noticed that too, but Illinois does have a stud LB (Martez Wilson) playing in the middle of the defense (similar to what MSU has with Jones). This at least gives them a chance to stop opposing running games and force opponents to beat them through the air. Illinois stoned Missouri in the first half of their game, then Missouri went to the pass and shredded Illinois in the second half. Ohio State played a very conservative game plan against Illinois but hit a couple huge plays on TP scrambles.
I suppose the difference with Michigan is that we are weak at both LB and secondary.
I agree that GERG hasn't really proven himself yet with Michigan but I don't think it's fair to really evaluate him unitl he has some talent to work with. I think he'll put a respectable defense on the field next year. If he doesn't, there won't be any excuses then.
October 12th, 2010 at 12:26 AM ^
I believe the biggest leap a college defense can make is with an aggressive front seven that can put serious pressure on a college QB and/or stuff a running game. 99% of good college QBs are not able to read and release accurately under heavy pressure. They will make mistakes. This is what is most troubling to me about the 3-3-5 as a base defense in college--it puts a premium on speed in the secondary. I would rather have my speed up front pressuring young kids into making mistakes. SEC defenses are so big and fast up front--it is like night and day watching a Big Ten defense with the exception possibly being Ohio State.